Preview

Starts: 2nd May 2024
Course: TPC Craig Ranch
Par: 72
Length: 7,414 yards
2023 Champion: Jason Day

PGA Tour Byron Nelson Picks 2024

2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Course Info

Designer: Tom Weiskopf.
Used Since: 2021
Fairways: Zoysia, wide
Rough: Bermudagrass.
Greens: Large, Bentgrass.
Water Hazards: In-play on 13 holes.
Par 5's: 5th,8th,12th,18th.
Premium on: Approach Play and Putting.

2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Trends

Winning Score
Previous winners on the Nationwide Tour, Justin Bolli (2008) and Matt Bettencourt (2012), won with -16 and -17. Jason Day triumphed ith a score of -23 last year and K H Lee won with -26 in 2022 and -25 in 2021 - we should expect a score of around 25 under par.

Course Form
Jason Day hadn'tbettered 51st in his two previous starts at TPC Craig Ranch.  Lee defended his title in 2022 whilst runner-up Spieth was 9th the previous year. Course form looks worth having here. 

Recent Form
K H Lee (2022) was 25th at Wells Fargo in his last start and Lee (2021) had made his last four cuts but nothing inside the top 25. 2012 winner Justin Bolli had no previous form with figures of MC-45-MC. 2008 winner Matt Bettencourt arrived in great form with figures of 2-18-MC-1-5.

World Ranking
Jason Day was 35th in the world prior to his win last year.  K H Lee was ranked 88th before his win in 2022 and Lee was world number 137 prior to winning in 2021.

Nationality
Winners of the PGA Tour events held here have been Australian and Korean but both Nationwide leaderboards were dominated by Americans.

Correlating Courses
K H Lee was 2nd at the Phoenix Open before his win in 2021 which is hosted at a Tom Weiskopf re-design, TPC Scottsdale. Jason Day was 5th at the Phoenix Open prior to his win last year.  Look out for those who played well in Phoenix earlier this year.  

2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Stats Analysis

We only have three years of Strokes Gained data to assess. We will look at the stats of the winner in 2023 and winner and runner up for 2021 and 2022.

SG: Off The Tee
Day was 16th in this category in 2023.  K H Lee was 20th and Jordan Spieth was 7th in 2022.  In 2021, Lee ranked 23rd with Sam Burns 9th. 

Driving Accuracy
Day was 34th when winning last year.  K H Lee was 22nd and Spieth was 33rd in 2022. In 2021, Lee ranked 41st with Burns 102nd.  Accuracy off the tee isn't essential.

Driving Distance
Day was 23rd in this category in 2023.  K H Lee was 49th and Spieth was 13th in 2022.  In 2021, Lee ranked 35th, Burns 55th .  Distance is not essential despite the length of the course.

SG: Approach
Day was 3rd for this statistic in 2023.  K H Lee was 8th and Spieth was 4th in 2022.  In 2021, Lee ranked 2nd with Burns 6th. Looks likely to be a key stat again this year. 

Greens in Regulation
Day was 10th in 2023.K H Lee was 18th and Spieth was 49th in 2022.  In 2021, Lee ranked 5th with Burns 5th. 

SG: Around The Green
Day ranked 33rd in this area in 2023.  K H Lee was 10th and Spieth was 26th in 2022.  In 2021, Lee ranked 24th, Burns 8th. A tidy short game is needed.

SG: Putting
Day was 28th for SG: Putting.  K H Lee was 13th and Spieth was 36th in 2022.  In 2021, Lee ranked 9th, Burns 45th. 

CJ Cup Byron Nelson Player Quotes 

"I love the fact that obviously it's a pretty big golf course, it's pretty long, you got to, the farther you hit it the easier this place gets. But playing in a lot of wind is something that I'm used to obviously living here since I was nine years old. So there's a lot of mid irons into this place which is the best part of my game and being one of the longer drivers on TOUR really matches up really nicely." Will Zalatoris, 2022

"The fairways are firmer, so I think last year we got some rain and I think they will play narrower, so I think that in that, because of that I think the scores will be a little bit higher, just because it's harder to hit the fairways and the rough's really high. So if you're in the fairway you can attack pins on a lot of the greens, but if you're not you're really out of position because they stick 'em over in corners and the way the course is designed it's, you have to be able to have spin on the ball to get close to the pin. So it's still going to be a premium on driving, probably more of a premium on driving the ball accurately than it was maybe last year, just because the fairways will play 5 to 10 yards smaller with how firm they are and I think that that's going to be what the tournament, the TOUR, everybody wants out of this place. It can show a little bit of teeth and it's certainly in the best condition, shape I've ever seen it in." Jordan Spieth, 2022

"The rough's definitely spotty. I think it's very, at least for a Monday at Southern Hills it's similar to where it's kind of flier city. You get it -- it's not -- when you get that really long Bermuda you know it's going to come out thick and likely going to just kind of be more of a pitch out kind of thing. But when you get this kind of rough it's really judging how far the ball's going to fly as well as you can and, yeah, I mean I wouldn't -- the fairways are big, I mean you have a pretty good amount of room, but I've definitely played wider fairways, like Caves Valley last year the fairways were just massive. It's not like to that extent, but, yeah, when you get some wind, and it seems like there's going to be a fair amount of crosswinds just by, I could be wrong, but at least off of some of the practice I've had the last couple days. So that shrinks the fairways quite a bit." Justin Thomas, 2022

"I think the biggest defence of this place really is the wind. Typically, when I've played here, it's fairly wide open, it's very long, especially when you have Zoysia grass, the ball doesn't roll very far. Getting weather as well is going to slow down the ball off the tee, so it's going to benefit a lot of the longer hitters. But you're able to really hit some darts into some of these greens, especially with how the weather is going to, or at least how so far the conditions are going to look like for the rest of the week. So expecting some low numbers this week." Will Zalatoris, 2021

“It’s going to be a bomber’s golf course” Ryan Palmer, 2021

"I think that when the wind blows it can be a significant -- it can play very different based on the conditions. You can say that about any golf course but really even more so out here. You've got, if the wind doesn't blow, you really are kind of looking at trying to go score. Then when it does, you're almost kind of holding on and saying, all right, I want to take advantage of the par-5s but the rest of the course is going to be really tough. It's got really hard par-3s. 17 being kind of the outlier, the kind of shorter one. So I think there's, you just, you got to have really -- you step up in a lot of these, where these hole locations will be, you got bigger greens but they play effectively smaller and it's really hard to kind of get your mid irons to long irons into kind of the sections of the greens where the pins will be. So I think it's going to be more of like a second shot risk-reward golf course to try and go low, but you can also play it smart and really hang in there if you're able to putt well." Jordan Spieth, 2021

2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson In Play Tips

Fast or Slow Start
All three course winners got off to hot starts and were all inside the top 10 after round one. Jason Day and KH Lee (2021) were in the top 6 at the halfway stage and in the top 4 with one round to go but it was a different story for Lee in 2022, as he came from four back on the final day.

Hole Analysis
Sung Kang is a course member and he had this to say in his pre-tournament interview in 2022:

"So the front nine and back nine are totally different. Front nine you can get really after it. There's some shorter holes you can actually score some. And then par-5s, like No. 5 and 6 are pretty simple. So you got to score well on the front. But as soon as you get to the back nine, there are a lot of long par-4s, so I think the driving will be the key. The fairways are pretty generous, but if you miss the fairway then it gets a little bit harder. So you got to hit the fairways.

And then coming in, 16, 17, 18, if it is normal wind from the south, it will be dead into the wind. So the 16th will be a very challenging par-4.

17 will be a short par-3, but with the wind it can play a little more difficult.

18's a par-4, you need a good tee ball to get home in two. So it will be fun to watch on the last couple of holes coming in."

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Will The Weather Be A Factor at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2024?

Heavy rain is forecast to fall the weekend prior to the tournament which will soften the course.  In addition, thunderstorms are possible on Thursday, Friday and Sunday.  The tournament will likely be weather affected.

Previous Byron Nelson Previews

You can access our historical Byron Nelson tips, previews and in-play blogs using the links below:

2023 Byron Nelson picks and preview

2022 Byron Nelson picks and preview

2021 Byron Nelson picks and preview

 

2024 PGA Tour Byron Nelson Picks