Preview
Course Info
Designer: Tom Weiskopf.
Used Since: 2021.
Fairways: Zoysia, wide
Rough: Bermudagrass.
Greens: Large, Bentgrass.
Water Hazards: In-play on 13 holes.
Par 5's: 5th,8th,12th,18th.
Premium on: Approach Play and Putting.
Significant Info
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
This event was also used for the Nationwide Tour Championship in 2008 and 2012. Notable finishes in 2012 were James Hahn in 2nd and Adam Hadwin in 3rd place. In 2008, Marc Leishman placed in 6th.
Ryan Palmer holds course record here.
Weather
The weather looks set to be slightly warmer this year, with temperatures in the mid 80's. The wind usually blows in texas but it doesn't look too bad at the time of writing.
Thursday
Sunny, max winds 13mph.
Friday
Partly cloudy, max winds 11mph
Saturday
Partly cloudy, max winds 8mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, max winds 10mph.
Trends
Winning Score
Previous winners on the Nationwide Tour, Justin Bolli and Matt Bettencourt, won with -16 and -17. K H Lee won with -25 last year and we should expect something in the low 20's at least.
Course Form
The Top 5 were all debutants last year.
Recent Form
K H Lee had made his last four cuts but nothing inside the top 25. 2012 winner Justin Bolli had no previous form with figures of MC-45-MC. 2008 winner Matt Bettencourt arrived in great form with figures of 2-18-MC-1-5.
World Ranking
K H Lee was ranked 137th, with the rest of the top 5 ranked 44th, 17th, 157th and 269th.
Nationality
Lee was a Korean winner but both Nationwide leaderboards were American dominated.
Correlating Courses
K H Lee was 2nd at the Phoenix Open before his win which is hosted at a Tom Weiskopf re-design, TPC Scottsdale.
Stats Analysis
We only have one year of Strokes Gained data to assess from the 2021 Byron Nelson. We will look at the stats of the winner and Runner Up.
SG: Off The Tee
K H Lee was ranked 23rd, Burns 9th. The focus will be on iron play mostly this week.
Driving Accuracy
K H Lee was ranked 41st, Burns 102nd. Accuracy off the tee isn't very important.
Driving Distance
K H Lee was ranked 35th, Burns 55th . Distance is not essential despite the length of the course.
SG: Approach
K H Lee was ranked 2nd, Burns 6th. Looks likely to be a key stat again this year.
Greens in Regulation
K H Lee was ranked 5th, Burns 5th. Accuracy tee to green is essential this week.
SG: Around The Green
K H Lee was ranked 24th, Burns 8th. Not a key stat this week.
SG: Putting
K H Lee was ranked 9th, Burns 45th. With low scoring needed, a hot putter will likely be required.
Player Quotes 2021
With no previous stats available we cannot analyse previous trends. However, quotes from players about the course earlier this week indicate long hitters are preferred.
"I think the biggest defence of this place really is the wind. Typically, when I've played here, it's fairly wide open, it's very long, especially when you have Zoysia grass, the ball doesn't roll very far. Getting weather as well is going to slow down the ball off the tee, so it's going to benefit a lot of the longer hitters. But you're able to really hit some darts into some of these greens, especially with how the weather is going to, or at least how so far the conditions are going to look like for the rest of the week. So expecting some low numbers this week."
Will Zalatoris
“It’s going to be a bomber’s golf course”
Ryan Palmer
"I think that when the wind blows it can be a significant -- it can play very different based on the conditions. You can say that about any golf course but really even more so out here. You've got, if the wind doesn't blow, you really are kind of looking at trying to go score. Then when it does, you're almost kind of holding on and saying, all right, I want to take advantage of the par-5s but the rest of the course is going to be really tough. It's got really hard par-3s. 17 being kind of the outlier, the kind of shorter one. So I think there's, you just, you got to have really -- you step up in a lot of these, where these hole locations will be, you got bigger greens but they play effectively smaller and it's really hard to kind of get your mid irons to long irons into kind of the sections of the greens where the pins will be. So I think it's going to be more of like a second shot risk-reward golf course to try and go low, but you can also play it smart and really hang in there if you're able to putt well."
Jordan Spieth
In Play
Fast or Slow Start
Lee and Burns both got off to hot starts and were with two shots of the lead after round one. Both were in the top 3 at the halfway stage and in the top 2 with one round to go. From the limited evidence we have, this isn't a catch up course.
Hole Analysis
Sung Kang is a course member and he had this to say in his pre-tournament interview:
"So the front nine and back nine are totally different. Front nine you can get really after it. There's some shorter holes you can actually score some. And then par-5s, like No. 5 and 6 are pretty simple. So you got to score well on the front. But as soon as you get to the back nine, there are a lot of long par-4s, so I think the driving will be the key. The fairways are pretty generous, but if you miss the fairway then it gets a little bit harder. So you got to hit the fairways.
And then coming in, 16, 17, 18, if it is normal wind from the south, it will be dead into the wind. So the 16th will be a very challenging par-4.
17 will be a short par-3, but with the wind it can play a little more difficult.
18's a par-4, you need a good tee ball to get home in two. So it will be fun to watch on the last couple of holes coming in."
In-play
AT& T Byron Nelson In-Play Blog
15 May 2022, 12:55pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Munoz |
-21 |
| Spieth |
-20 |
| Niemann |
-19 |
| Hahn |
-18 |
| Thomas |
-18 |
| Three Players Tied |
-17 |
How do we expect this round to play out?
More birdies are on the menu today although the wind is up slightly to 12mph in the afternoon and pin placements should be tougher. Munoz has an accomplished chasing pack, most notably Jordan Spieth, and it is in our opinion that he won't be able to hold on and makes no appeal at 11/4 to convert. He has let some good winning chances slip in the last 12 months with Sunday finishes of 70 and 71 at the Zozo Championship/John Deere Classic. He was also outscored on the Sunday shootout at RSM last year.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
The market favourite is understandably Jordan Spieth who is one back of Munoz. Spieth has found consistency with his putter this week which is the only part of his game not co-operating and his tee to green numbers have improved every day too. Spieth is 2/1 to win but he can also be backed at 29/20 to win his three-ball against Munoz and Joaquin Niemann, which would be favoured considering the danger of someone shooting a round in the low 60's from the pack.
To do that he will have to beat Niemann who has to be considered a threat given his ability under pressure. However, his score this week has been built largely with the putter and he might not give himself as many opportunities as others. He is 5/1 in the outright which seems short considering Spieth is in front of him and Justin Thomas is lurking one back.
Thomas is available at 6/1 so the bookmakers are taking no chances on him. Thomas commented after the round that he has been nowhere near his best yet and feels a 60 is out there should he find a bit of form with the putter. Scheffler is the other big name who could be a danger but is a further two back from Thomas and would need a bit of help from the leaders. 25/1 is tempting though and he is certainly capable of posting 26 under which could ask a question.
Finally, a word for James Hahn who shot 61 yesterday and leads the field tee to green. He commented after the round that a bit of putting advice on Friday evening changed his fortunes on the greens yesterday and if he can continue that he could be a massive danger at 25/1 if you're looking for some odds further down.
What markets should we be looking at?
We expect Spieth to finish the job here but odds of 2/1 aren't overly generous. Instead we will turn our attention to the Top 20 market for what we consider is the bet of the day.
"The Closing Stretch Parlay" today is a small triple on Spieth, Scheffler and Thomas to win their 3-balls at 8/1.
Round 4 Bet
- 3pts Dustin Johnson Top 20 Finish Evens @ Betfair
Dustin is currently T21st, one shot outside of the top 20. We didn't see DJ as a potential winner this week given his rust after getting married several weeks ago. However, his driving has improved every day this week and he ranks 8th for Greens in Regulation so far this week. He's also -10 for the par 5s this week and we have to expect him to continue to score well on those holes. DJ will want to end the week on a high and we see him scoring well enough to break into the top 20 today.
14 May 2022, 11:45am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Munoz |
-15 |
| Palmer |
-15 |
| Skinns |
-15 |
| Lower |
-14 |
| Schwartzel |
-13 |
| Three Players Tied |
-12 |
How do we expect this round to play out?
Conditions look absolutely perfect for today with hardly any wind forecast. Munoz shot 60 on Thursday and there was a 62 and two 63's yesterday. We must expect something similar from one or two of the leaders today.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Round one leader Sebastian Munoz played his first nine in over par but recovered well to tie the lead. We didn't like his price of 3/1 before the round and 9/2 looks even less appealing now that he has lost his four shot lead. It will be hard to recover from that today and there are still a lot of dangerous chasers behind him.
Ryan Palmer was the star of the show yesterday, and looked in total control of his ball, but we saw how hard Munoz found it to follow up and Palmer has a habit of struggling on Sundays so odds of 7/1 are not for us.
Jordan Spieth is next in the betting three shots back, but from the coverage we watched he got the best out of his game yesterday and isn't producing the same tee to green excellence we have seen from him lately. The putter is much improved though, and he will have his backers at 15/2.
There are a host of big names in the 11-14/1 range - Joaquin Niemann, Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama are all within five shots and Niemann looks the most value out of the three.
What markets should we be looking at?
The leaders still look worth taking on with question marks over Munoz and Palmer and the inexperienced duo of David Skinns and Justin Lower at the top.
Round 3 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Maverick McNealy 40/1 @ Ladbrokes (1/4 1-4)
Maverick is five back after an incredible three eagles yesterday. The par 5's are going to play a big part in deciding the winner, so that bodes well for the youngster going forward. He ranks in the top 40 of every strokes gained category this week so all aspects or his game are in good shape. McNealy is bound to win sooner rather than later, and this looks like a good opportunity for him at a value price.
- 0.5pts Each Way Beau Hossler 80/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-4)
Hossler is one shot closer to the lead than McNealy and twice the price. He has already had two top 5's this year - one of which was in Texas. He is being underestimated by the market, and in what is going to turn into a weekend shootout Hossler's putting (ranks 2nd SG: Putting) could be a crucial asset.
13 May 2022, 10:25am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Munoz |
-12 |
| Lee |
-8 |
| Lower |
-8 |
| Pereira |
-8 |
| Malnati |
-8 |
| Wilshire |
-7 |
| Five Players Tied |
-6 |
How do we expect this round to play out?
The early starters look set to benefit from a couple of hours in lesser winds, with expected winds of 4mph at 7am and then 10mph at lunchtime. We would expect the leaderboard to congest, with the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth and Joaquin Niemann all primed for an early move.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
A four shot lead on day one is virtually unheard of here. Munoz had one of those days where everything clicked perfectly - ranked 1st tee to green and 3rd putting. Given -25 was the winning score last year, he would just need three 68's to get near that, but odds of 3/1 look very short with 54 holes to play.
Part of the reason for that is 2nd favourite Scottie Scheffler has a chance to make some good ground on him this morning and then has 36 holes to eat into his lead over the weekend. Jordan Spieth and Joaquin Niemann are right there too and the defending champion is only four back.
Lee and Burns were both in the top 10 after day one last year, and with Munoz's score we shouldn't be looking too far down the leaderboard.
What markets should we be looking at?
The outright market looks favourable given Munoz's hot start and Scheffler's presence inflating others' odds. There are plenty of nice prices about. J.J. Spaun was tempting at 55/1 but the man below definitely looks overpriced.
Round 2 Bet
- 1.5pts Each Way K H Lee 18/1 @ Bet365 (1-5 1/5)
The defending champion went one better than his opening round last year and is now -33 for his last five rounds on the course. Only a couple of missed short putts in his last five holes prevented him being within a couple of the lead but he has plenty of time to catch Munoz and has a nice early start. Only Munoz was better tee to green yesterday and having ranked 50th for putting there is room for improvement in Lee's scoring. It's never easy defending a title, but he has put himself in a great position to do so and he held his nerve beautifully last year.
