Preview

Starts: 21st March 2024
Course: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead)
Par: 71 (36-35)
Length: 7,340 yards
2023 Champion: Taylor Moore

PGA Tour Valspar Championship Picks 2024

2024 Valsar Championship Course Info

Designer: Larry Packard
Used Since: 2000
Fairways: Narrow, Tree Lined
Rough: Bermuda
Greens: TifEagle Bermuda with Poa overseed (12 stimp)
Water Hazards: On 9 holes
Par 5's: 1st, 5th, 11th and 14th
Premium on: Strong approach play
 

Valspar Championship 2024 Trends

Winning Score
Sam Burns won with a total of -17 in both 2022 and 2021. However, Taylor Moore won with a score of -10 last year and in the 10 years prior to Burns, winning scores ranged from -7 to -15 depending on the conditions.

Course Form
Taylor Moore had a solitary missed cut in this event prior to winning last year.  Sam Burns defended his title in 2022 whilst he had two solid finishes (30th and 12th) here prior to winning in 2021.  Paul Casey defended his title in 2019 but he arrived in 2018 with a best finish of 37th in four starts. 2017 winner Hadwin and 2016 winner Schwartzel only had one start here prior to winning and both had missed the cut.  Copperhead course form is preferred but not essential.

First Time Winner on Tour
Three of the last six winners have been first time winners on the PGA Tour.  

Recent Form
Taylor Moore had been in very solid form prior to his win last year with five top 40 finishes from his previous six starts.  Sam Burns was in steady form in 2022 with two top 30's but had missed the cut in three of his last four starts prior to winning in 2021.  Casey arrived on the back of a missed cut in 2019 but was in good form before that. In 2018, he had three top 15's in his previous four starts. The previous five winners have had a 12th place finish or better in their last three starts, so we want to see some sign of form.

World Ranking
The world ranking of the past seven champions has been 103-17-91-15-17-99-32-10.  Winners are generally inside the top 100 and we're looking for quality players to prevail.

Nationality
Non-Americans have a great record in recent years. Jordan Spieth, Sam Burns and Taylor Moore are the only American winners since 2013. Winners have been from England, Canada, Australia and South Africa.

Correlating Courses
The 3M Open is worth considering as a correlating course.  Past Valspar champions with Top 12 finishes at 3M include Hadwin (twice), Schwartzel (twice), Burns and Woodland. Louis Oosthuizen has a runner up finish in both events. Cam Tringale has a 3rd in both.

Age
Five of the last eight winners have been in their twenties.

Valspar Championship 2024 Trends Shortlist

Using the information above, we have taken into account the three most relevant trends to establish a shortlist of potential winners and make golf picks. Valspar trends used were:

✅ Players below age of 30
✅ World Ranking inside Top 100
✅ Top 15 finish in last four tournaments

2024 Valspar Championship Stats Analysis

We have seven years of Strokes Gained data to assess.

SG: Off The Tee
The last seven winners have ranked 2-52-16-6-50-47-52. Surprisingly not a key stat for a narrow, long course.

Driving Distance
The last seven winners have ranked 10-16-19-11-17-37-30.  Distance off the tee is a definite advantage.

Driving Accuracy
The last seven winners have ranked 32-41-33-9-68-27-65.  Accuracy off the tee is less important than length.

SG: Approach
The last seven winners have ranked 5-3-14-7-7-2-3.  Approach play is key.

SG: Around The Green
The last seven winners have ranked 40-13-23-9-3-25-23. A sharp short game is normally required at Copperhead, Taylor Moore being the only winner out of the last seven who didn't rank inside the top 25 for this statistic.

SG: Putting
The last seven winners have ranked 9-8-3-43-15-4-12. Not essential to putt the lights out but as always, its helps.

2024 Valspar Championship In-Play Golf Betting Advice

Fast or Slow Start

Before last year, since 2011, the winner had been at least 3 shots behind after round one with none in the top 5. However, Sam Burns was joint leader after round one last year and Davis Riley who finished 2nd was one off the lead.

After round two, five of the last six winners have been 2nd or better. There have been two big Sunday comebacks in the last five years - Casey came from 5 behind in 2018 and Schwartzel came from 5 back in 2016. In general, comebacks are possible here.

Bogey Holes
Holes16-18 are known as 'The Snake Pit' where pars are a great score. 16 is a 475 yard par 4 and one of the toughest on tour. 17 is a tough par 3 and 18 is an uphill par 4. 

Closing stretch
See above on 'Bogey Holes'.

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Will The Weather Be A Factor at the Valspar Championship 2024?

Heavy rain and thunderstorms possible on Friday but otherwise conditions should be perfect.  

Previous Valspar Championship Previews

You can access our historical Valspar Championship tips, previews and in-play blogs using the links below:

2023 Valspar Championship picks

2022 Valspar Championship picks

2021 Valspar Championship picks

2024 Valspar Championship Tips