Event Info
Starts: 29th April 2021
Course: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead)
Par: 71 (36-35)
Length: 7,340 yards
2020 Champion: N/A
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: +54.5pts
Pre-Event Bets: +57.5pts
1pt EW Bubba Watson 50/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-8)
0.75pts EW Sam Burns 70/1 @ William Hill (1/5/1-8)
0.5pts EW Danny Willett 100/1 @ Ladbrokes (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Henrik Stenson 125/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-8)
0.25pts EW Aaron Baddeley 300/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
1pt Wes Bryan Top 20 Finish 10/1 @ Bet365
In-Play Bets: -3pts
30 April 2021 (-2pts)
0.5pts EW Scott Brown 2nd Round Leader - 66/1 @ Boylesports (1/4 1-4)
0.5pts EW Ted Potter Jr 2nd Round Leader - 80/1 @ Boylesports (1/4 1-4)
1 May 2021 (-1pt)
1pt Pat Perez Top 10 finish - 9/1 @ 10bet
Preview
Course Info
Designer: Larry Packard
Used Since: 2000
Fairways: Narrow, Tree Lined
Rough: Bermuda
Greens: TifEagle Bermuda with Poa overseed (12 stimp)
Water Hazards: On 9 holes
Par 5's: 1st, 5th, 11th and 14th
Premium on: Strong approach play
Significant Info
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
This event was not played in 2020 due to the pandemic.
This year the event has moved from March to late April.
Copperhead is traditionallly one one of the harder courses on tour.
Weather
Thursday
Sunny intervals with a max wind speed of 10mph.
Friday
Sunny intervals with a max wind speed of 11mph.
Saturday
Sunny intervals with a max wind speed of 9mph.
Sunday
Sunny intervals with a max wind speed of 9mph.
Trends
Winning Score
Paul Casey has won the last two editions with scores of -8 in 2019 and -10 in 2018. In the last 10 years, winning scores have ranged from -7 to -15 depending on the conditions.
Course Form
Casey defended his title in 2019 but he arrived in 2018 with a best finish of 37th in four starts. 2017 winner Hadwin and 2016 winner Schwartzel only had one start here prior to winning and both had missed the cut. Preferred but not essential.
Recent Form
Casey arrived on the back of a missed cut in 2019 but was in good form before that. In 2018, he had three top 15's in his previous four starts. The previous five winners have had a 12th place finish or better in their last three starts, so we want to see some sign of form.
World Ranking
The world ranking of the past five champions has been 15-17-99-32-10. Winners are generally inside the top 100 and we're looking for quality players to prevail.
Nationality
Non-Americans have a great record in recent years. Jordan Spieth is the only American winner since 2013. Winners have been from England, Canada, Australia and South Africa.
Correlating Courses
None.
Stats Analysis
We have four years of Strokes Gained data to assess.
SG: Off The Tee
The last four winners have ranked 6-50-47-52. Surprisingly not a key stat for a narrow, long course.
Driving Distance
The last four winners have ranked 11-17-37-30. In general, you don't need to be a bomber but long enough.
Driving Accuracy
The last five winners have ranked 9-68-27-65. Accuracy off the tee isn't essential either.
SG: Approach
The last four winners have ranked 7-7-2-3. Approach play is key.
SG: Around The Green
The last four winners have ranked 9-3-25-23. A tough test means a solid short game will be necessary here.
SG: Putting
The last five winners have ranked 43-15-4-12. Not essential to putt the lights out but as always, its helps.
In Play
Tough Holes
16-18 is known as 'The Snake Pit' where pars are a great score. 16 is a 475 yard par 4 and one of the toughest on tour. 17 is a tough par 3 and 18 is an uphill par 4.
Birdie Holes
The par 5's (1st, 5th, 11th and 14th) are the easiest and must be taken advantage of.
Closing Stretch
See above on 'Tough Holes'.
Fast or Slow Start
Since 2011, the winner has been at least 3 shots behind after round one with none in the top 5. However after round two, four of the last five winners have been 2nd or better. There have been two big Sunday comebacks in the last four years - Casey came from 5 behind in 2018 and Schwartzel came from 5 back in 2016. In general, comebacks are possible here.
In-play
Valspar Championship In-Play Blog
2 May 2021, 9.00am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Bradley | -14 |
| Burns | -14 |
| Homa | -13 |
| Potter Jr | -10 |
| Ancer | -10 |
| Niemann | -10 |
| Tringale | -10 |
A hot start saw Sam Burns trade as low as 5/6 yesterday but a faltering back nine saw him caught and he is once again joined at the top of the leaderboard by Keegan Bradley. The pair no longer enjoy a four shot gap over the rest of the field as Max Homa has closed to within a shot.
Bradley is now rated as slight favourite (2/1) with Burns and Homa a general 5/2. Bradley described his third round as probably the "best round of the tournament" from a ball striking perspective and it was ominous that he still went round in 69 given he putted very poorly. However, for all his good play in the opening three rounds, we can't get away from the fact he's been nervy of late on a Sunday. We mentioned yesterday that Bradley has a 2⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating and it's not a price we'd be keen to back.
Given Sam Burns was our 70/1 pre-event pick, it was hugely disappointing to see him fail to capitalise on his hot start yesterday. Gaining a big lead and slipping back to the pack is becoming a habit for Burns and we're obviously hoping he can learn from previous experiences. Burns suggested in his interview yesterday that he had learnt to "take a little more time in those moments and really talk through the shot and really have a clear plan."
As we mentioned in yesterday's in-play blog, Burns has won on the Korn Ferry Tour and that win came when leading going into the final round. He birdied the final three holes to win that tournament by a shot and whilst winning on the PGA Tour is undoubtedly a step up, he's shown he can convert when under pressure. We identified him as one to watch this season in our blog at the start of the year and we still think this could be his week.
Max Homa pipped Burns at the Genesis Invitational and he could prove to be the biggest danger today. He's slightly short for us at 5/2 but given the front two have their problems when leading, Homa could well sneak in and win this.
With our position on Burns, we are happy to cheer him on with no further bets.
No rain is forecast for the final round but the wind may kick up slightly more than yesterday with the forecast indicating a max of 12mph.
Round Four Bet
- No further bets
1 May 2021, 10.00am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Bradley | -12 |
| Burns | -12 |
| Glover | -8 |
| Homa | -8 |
| Hoffman | -8 |
Keegan Bradley and Sam Burns have opened up a four shot lead at the top of the leaderboard after 36 holes and the bookmakers can't split them. Both are priced up at at a best of 11/4 to win from here and it's notable that every bookmaker on Oddschecker has them as co-favourites!
The bookies inability to split the pair can be put down to their recent failings when in contention. Bradley hasn't won since 2018 and has been poor when around the lead in recent times. A 2⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating tells its own story and for all his good play so far this week, we wouldn't be in a rush to back him at the business end of a tournament.
Burns was our 70/1 pre-event pick and we're obviously hoping he can improve on recent efforts when leading. He led after three rounds at the Genesis Invitational in February but slipped to third. Before that, he led after 54 holes at the Houston Open in November, a final round 72 pushing him down to 7th.
It would be easy to suggest Burns lacks bottle but we should remember he's a young player who has teed it up fewer than 90 times as a professional. In that time he has won on the Korn Ferry Tour and that win came when leading going into the final round. He birdied the final three holes to win that tournament by a shot and whilst winning on the PGA Tour is undoubtedly a step up, he's shown he can convert when under pressure. We identified him as one to watch this season in our blog at the start of the year and we think this could be his week.
With our position on Burns, we are happy to leave the outright market alone until tomorrow. We do have one bet in the Top 10 market.
No rain is forecast for the third round, with the wind expected to reach a max of 10mph.
Round Three Bet
- 1pt Pat Perez Top 10 Finish 9/1 @ 10Bet
Pat is currently 11th, after opening rounds of 68-68. He ranks 5th SG: Approach so far this week and 6th Greens in Regulation. He hasn't played this event much in recent years (last appearance 2014) but a 7th place finish in 2013 showed he's capable of a top 10 here. Pat is as low as 16/5 at some bookmakers so the 9/1 is a price worth taking if you can get it. This bet is also available at Sport Nation, Red Zone and Mansion bet if you don't have access to 10Bet.
30 April 2021, 10.15am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Bradley | -7 |
| Moore | -5 |
| Lebioda | -5 |
| Grillo | -5 |
| Kizzire | -5 |
| Homa | -5 |
Keegan Bradley has open up a two shot lead on the field at 7 under par. He finished his round strong, birdieing five of his last seven holes. In his last five holes alone, he holed over 80ft worth of putts so everything feel into place nicely for Keegan.
Bradley quite often starts strong and more often than not he falls away. It must be said though, his stats were excellent yesterday, hitting 94% greens in regulation. He’s not for us at 9/1 though.
Below him, it is very bunched, with 26 players between 3 under and 5 under. The afternoon wave found it tougher to score yesterday and we can expect something similar today judging by the forecast.
The morning starters have relatively no wind to deal with and it should get up to a moderate breeze of 10mph in the afternoon.
We will concentrate on the '2nd Round Leader Market', identifying a couple of morning movers at juicy prices.
Round Two Bets
- 0.5pts Each Way Scott Brown 2ND ROUND LEADER 66/1 @ Boylesports
Scott is only three shots off the lead and more than capable of another low one today. He has an advantage over Bradley playing in the easier morning conditions. Only made one bogey yesterday and hit over 80% greens in regulation.
- 0.5pts Each Way Ted Potter Jr 2ND ROUND LEADER 80/1 @ Boylesports
Like Brown, Potter Jr has the morning advantage and is only three shots back. Stats were steady enough with over 65% fairways and greens. Both of these plays are based on the value in their prices.
