2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Tips

In-play

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational In-Play Blog

5th March 2023, 10:55am (UK time)

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Round 3 Summary

The wind continued to blow and make things tough but we saw three 66's from Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton and Piercon Coody. Our 50/1 in-play selection Kurt Kitayama maintained his lead with a good comeback but his lead has been trimmed and Scottie Scheffler is lurking with Hovland one back.. 

Notable Arnold Palmer Invitational Round 3 Quotes

"You have to learn to control your ball. When the greens get really firm and the wind starts whipping like it is today any little bit of spin you're going to apply to the ball is going to have a huge affect. So learning how to control it is definitely very important." Scottie Scheffler

"Just proud of the way I fought. Started off fairly solid first three holes and then one loose swing and I'm 2-over. Then got some uncomfortable shots coming in on that front nine. Bogey on 9. It's just tough." Kurt Kitayama

"Limit the mistakes out here. If you can hit fairways and greens and take advantage of the par-5s that's basically what I did today. And then have a really good short game." Rory McIlroy

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Round 4 Weather

Although calmer than the last two days, we look set for another tough day at Bay Hill with winds reaching 14mp which will be enough to cause some problems still.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Scottie Scheffler heads the market at 9/4 after birdieing five of his last seven holes, including the last three. It is a big warning to the rest that he is ready to take control of this tournament and he won here from 4th place on Sunday last year. Scheffler leads the field tee to green for the week, won in Phoenix last month in convincing fashion with a 65 on Sunday, there really is not a lot you can pitch against him today. If searching for negatives, he showed at the Tour Championship and British Open he can flop on Sunday and there is still a wealth of top class players close to him. 

Viktor Hovland is next in the market at 4/1 and he is talking a good game, saying how much more in control of his ball he feels and the stats showed that too, he led the field tee to green by some margin yesterday. He has recent experience of defeating Scottie Scheffler at the Hero World Challenge although Scheffler did outscore him on the final round. You can probably forgive his poor performance when leading the British Open due to contention rust and he is a big danger today.

We are hopeful our Kurt Kitayama can hang on today but he has it all to do. It was only last month he shot 76 to fall from 2nd to 26th in Pebble Beach on Sunday but he has held himself well in good company in the last 12 months, a 67 at the CJ Cup, 66 in Scotland and 68 in Mexico to finish 2nd three times. There is also the fact he practices with Collin Morikawa so he won't be intimidated. If Scheffler has an off day, he is extremely capable, we wouldn't be backing him at 13/2 but our 50/1 ticket after round one is still looking tasty.

Where is the value?

Anything can happen around Bay Hill but the favourites are looking really strong here. We will look at the 2-ball Markets to see if anything is standing out to us today.

 

Round 4 Bet

4th March 2023, 10:45am (UK time)

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Round 2 Summary

The wind caused havoc for much of the day. Jon Rahm uncharacteristically shot a four over par second round after struggling with the driver most of the day. Our 50/1 in-play selection Kurt Kitayama took the lead by two over Jordan Spieth. 

Notable Arnold Palmer Invitational Round 2 Quotes

"Clearly, I never had it on the greens. Never had it off the tee. Didn't make any putts, really. Hit very little fairways. That's a very bad combination to shoot any scores out here. So you just try to minimize the damage. Obviously some people are going to shoot under par, but it's just really tough." Jon Rahm

"Yeah, I think I've put myself in good spots. Right now I feel like I'm just trying to get that win is, you know, it's tough, especially with the guys I've been against. So just got to keep putting myself in that position to give myself a chance." Kurt Kitayama

"Yeah, yesterday, coming into this week with the prep I felt like I was playing some really good golf. Didn't have my best stuff yesterday, but I felt like it was one of those rounds where I just kind of pieced it together. When I was off I had my short game saving me. When I was in position I was taking care of business." Davis Riley

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Round 3 Weather

We look set for another tough day at Bay Hill with winds reaching 16mp. 

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

This has become a really difficult event to call, there are now nine players between 7/1 and 16/1.

Xander Schauffele and Jordan Spieth are 7/1 favourites, which both look short given how wide open it is. Leader Kurt Kitayama still looks a generous price at 9/1 considering he has a bit of breathing space and experience mixing with the likes of Schauffele and Rahm.

Patrick Cantlay and Scottie Scheffler will have their backers at 10/1, as will Jon Rahm at 12/1. It's Justin Thomas that looks the best price out of the lot though at 12/1, two sloppy bogeys at 17 and 18 has brought his price back out but with the wind set to blow again today, Thomas handled the conditions the best and can keep the foot down. 

Where is the value?

No three ball markets are available and with this being so tight, it may just be best to sit back and let round three unfold.

 

Round 3 Bet

3rd March 2023, 9:45am (UK time)

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Round 1 Summary

Jon Rahm leads by two over the field after a superb last four holes starting with a par save, followed by eagle, birdie, birdie

Notable Round 1 Arnold Palmer Invitational Round 1 Quotes

"I think the only difference between some of my rounds last year and this one was just putting. I don't think in four days I made a single putt out here. And I made my fair share today. I've been putting a lot better this year. But from good putting to bad putting is the smallest difference imaginable. Especially on these greens. These greens can get difficult very quick." Jon Rahm

"Yeah, just feel like I've been hitting my irons really well and finally started to get the putter going where I'm confident in where I'm rolling it. Like today I felt like I finally started to drive it, I hit more fairways and gave myself more opportunities." Kurt Kitayama

"I think I was really happy with the way I put a round together today. I hit a bunch of good shots as well, but I was definitely in so some tricky places and made the best of what I had. Any time you break par out here you're doing okay. Today I just feel like every time I had a chance to make birdie I did." Cameron Young

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Round 2 Weather

We look set for a tough day at Bay Hill with winds reaching 18mph in the afternoon and gusts of 25mph throughout the day. The best conditions of the day will likely be between 7-10am.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

What more do we need to say about Jon Rahm? Form figures read 1-3-7-1-1 for the year and he also closed out 2022 with two wins in his last four starts. Had there been no wind forecast, odds of 6/4 would start to look quite generous however it throws in some variables and while we expect him to maintain his lead, it's not a backable price for us with the conditions.

Scottie Scheffler is next in the betting at 8/1 but he will have the tougher afternoon conditions so we could se a much bigger price on him tomorrow. Friends Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele are next at 12's and 14s but we just wouldn't want to take on Rahm at those prices. 

Where is the value?

The morning starters are preferred but with caution as Jon Rahm is expected to win now. One player is standing out to us at the odds. 

 

Round 2 Bet