Arnold Palmer Invitational 2022

Event Info

Starts: 3rd March 2022
Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Florida
Par: 72
Length: 7,466 yards
2021 Champion: Bryson DeChambeau

Preview
In-play

Preview

Course Info

Designer: Dick Wilson & Joe Lee. Subsequent re-design by Arnold Palmer
Hosted since: 1979
Course type: Parkland
Fairways: Wide
Rough: Thick (3.5 inches)
Greens: Tifeagle Bermuda, 13 on the Stimp
Water Hazards: Nine holes
Par 5's: 4th, 6th, 12th and 16th
Premium on: Approach play and putting

Significant Info

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.

Weather

Some light rain expected on Monday but dry rest of the week should mean the course plays firm. Thursday set to be the easiest of the conditions with winds in the single figures.

Thursday: Partly Cloudy, Max Wind 9mph.
Friday: Sunny, Max Wind 13mph.
Saturday: Mostly Sunny, Max Wind 13mph.
Sunday: Mostly Sunny, Max Wind 12mph.

Trends

Winning Score
Eight of the last nine years have been between -11 and -19. 2020 saw the winner post -4.

Price of Winner
Tiger Woods won eight times between 2000 and 2013. Winners are generally sub-50/1 with a few exceptions.

Correlating Courses
Surprisingly, quite a few of the winners have solid Texas form. Also worth considering similar Florida tests like Valspar and Honda Classic.

Course Form
Eight of the last eleven champions had posted a top 5 finish.

Recent Form
Ten of the last 11 champions had posted a top 25 finish in their previous three starts.

Nationality
The five winners previous to Bryson last year were all European or Australian.

Stats Analysis

We are looking for accurate approach play and a hot putter.

SG: Off The Tee
The last five winners have ranked 1-36-2-42-46. Worth noting that Francesco Molinari was the only champion in the past five years to rank inside the top 20 in Driving Accuracy.

Driving Distance
Only three champions have ranked inside the top 35 for Driving Distance in the past six years although note Bryson DeChambeau ranked 1st last year on route to winning.

SG: Approach
The last five winners have ranked 9-3-43-15-13. In general, good approach play has been important. Worth noting that three of the past four champions have ranked inside the top 15 for Greens in Regulation.

SG: Around The Green
At first glance not hugely important. Rankings of 30-36-58-26-63 in the past four years. Bear in mind each of the past four champions has ranked inside the top 11 in scrambling.

SG: Putting
This is a significant metric this week. The past five champions ranked 21-6-1-2-7 in this category.

In Play

Tough Holes
The 18th and 8th ranked as the hardest last year. If betting in-play, be aware the 1st and 2nd usually rank inside the top six hardest.

Birdie Holes
The four par 5s play as the easiest, with the short par 4 13th playing under par each year also.

Closing Stretch
The 16th plays as the easiest hole each year and is a definite birdie opportunity. The 17th and 18th are regularly ranking inside the five toughest holes.

Fast or Slow Start
Every leader in the past six years has been within the top 20 after round one. Only one player has gone on to win having started the final day lower than 3rd.

Players We Almost Backed

NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers. If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.

In-play

In-Play Blog

5 March 2022, 12:25pm (UK time)

Player	Total
Hovland	-9
McIlroy	-7
Hatton	-7
Gooch	-7
Horschel	-6
Seven players tied	-3

Viktor Hovland has taken the lead off Rory and is now 7/4 favourite to convert his halfway two shot lead.

All aspects of Hovland's game looked to be firing and he must be feeling confident after his recent success.

A word of warning for backers though, he sat in the top 5 at this point last year before finishing 43rd.

The forecast of heavier wind over the weekend is also putting us off. Winds of 15mph should cause enough problems and potential change on the leaderboard.

Rory is 7/2 second favourite after failing to back up Thursday's heroics and although his game is in fine order, it's not a price for us. His failures after leading early are well documented and the wind won't help his cause.

Tyrrell Hatton was considered strongly at 7/1 following his win here two years ago in the windier conditions. However, he's been heavily reliant on his short game so far and that's enough to put us off.

Gooch and Horschel have to be respected although a look back at last years 36 hole leaderboard has us thinking the three under pars are far from out of this.

Last year, DeChambeau and Westwood were three and five shots back at this point before battling it out on Sunday so we will add one from the group at three under today.

Round 3 Bet

1pt Each Way Sam Burns @ Skybet (1/4 1-3)

Sam has missed his last three cuts so you would be excused for not backing him pre-event but a three under par round yesterday shows signs he is close to a return to form. A winner in Florida last year at Valspar and history coming from way back at the WGC FedEx and Hero World Challenge, Sam is value climb the leaderboard over the weekend at 45/1.

+ - Round 2 Bets Click to collapse

4 March 2022, 9:55am (UK time)

Player	Total
McIlroy	-7
Hossler	-5
Spaun	-5
Horschel	-5
Six players tied	-4

Rory McIlroy has romped to a two shot lead with a superb 65 despite playing his first two holes in one over par. As you would expect, he's a heavy favourite now with best odds of 5/2.

Before we can assess other bets, we have to weigh up Rory's chances from here. Our twitter followers may have spotted PGA Tour's tweet that Rory has shot 65 in an opening round TWELVE times without winning in a row, highlighting how often he fritters away good starts.

It is impossible to argue how well he played yesterday, in particular his driving where he picked up 2.38 strokes on the field. He was only the 20th best putter of the day. It would take a brave man to take him on however the prospect of some wind and firmer greens tomorrow is enough for us to think he's too short at 5/2.

Billy Horschel (-5) and Viktor Hovland (-3) have positioned themselves nicely, with a morning start in the easier conditions today. The odds have been adjusted accordingly and they are the next two in the betting at 12/1.

Sungjae Im and Will Zalatoris are also positioned nicely however we couldn't be touching them at 14/1 with the tougher afternoon conditions forecast.

Every winner in the past six years has been within the top 20 after round one and the top three last year were all positioned nicely within the top 10. With that in mind we don't want to be looking far past the -3's today.

Round 2 Bets

1pt Each Way Aaron Wise 66/1 @ William Hill (1/4 1-5)

Aaron played in the afternoon finishing 3 under par despite playing his first 10 holes in one over. He seemed to find something on the back nine and ranked 11th off the tee and 13th tee to green. He has had a slow start to the season but has enough class to play a part in this tournament, we expected 50/1 this morning so anything over is a bonus.

0.75pts Each Way Patton Kizzire 80/1 @ William Hill (1/4 1-5)

Kizzire is another on 3 under and enjoys an early start today. He ranked 6th off the tee so is driving the ball beautifully. It was his approach play that was slightly off yesterday but it is usually a strength so we expect to see an improvement today. He is also a fine wind player for the weekend.

0.5pts Each Way Matt Jones 150/1 @ Ladbrokes (1/5 1-5)

Jones is one shot further back at two under par and is another top wind player we want onside for the weekend. Had his putter been working better, he could have been right up there - he ranked 81st for putting yesterday. Tee to green he seems in great shape and a slight improvement on the greens today could see him get in contention.

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