Preview
Course Info
Course Designer: Shinya Fujita
Tournament played here since: 2019 (no 2020 edition at this course)
Type of Course: Parkland
Fairways: Korai Zoysiagrass
Greens: Bentgrass greens (11.5 on stimp)
Par 5's: 6th, 14th and 18th
Premium on: All Round Game
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
The field is only 78 players with no cut.
About 40 yards have been added to the official scorecard at the Narashino Country Club for this year’s iteration of the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP.
This event returns to Accordia Golf Narashino CC, which hosted the event last year and 2019. The 2020 Zozo Championship was held in the USA.
Weather Forecast
Mostly sunny with temperatures peaking in the mid 20's each afternoon. The wind should test players this week and scoring is likely to be higher.
Thur - Sunny. Wind 8-21mph.
Fri - Sunny. Wind 12-24mph.
Sat - Sunny intervals. Wind 8-16mph.
Sun - Sunny intervals. Wind 8-16mph.
Trends
Winning Score
Matsuyama won last year with a winning score of 15 under par, which was FIVE shots better than 2nd place. In 2019, Tiger Woods won with a winning score of -19 . However, there were three shots separating him and Hideki Matsuyama in 2nd and a further 3 shots separating Matsuyama and those in 3rd place. We can expect a winning score in the mid teens.
Course Form
Course form held up well in 2021 with Matsuyama winning following a 2nd place finish here in 2019. Several of the top 10 had a top 25 in the 2019 edition.
Recent Form
Matsuyama wasn't in strong form with finishes of 59-67 before his win. Runners up Cameron Tringale and Brenden Steele weren't in great form either. In 2019, Tiger Woods hadn't played for nine weeks prior to his win. However, the rest of the top 5 each had a top 10 finish in their previous two starts. Those who are still motivated at this time of year are preferred.
Winning Profile
Matsuyama was ranked 19th in the world whilst Woods ranked 8th in the world at the time of their wins. Both obviously have strong pedigree and the winner is likely to come from another strong runner this year.
Stats Analysis
Only certain stats are available from 2021 so we will concentrate on the 2019 stats.
Driving Accuracy
Rankings for the top 5 in 2019 were 7-29-13-47-3.
Driving Distance
No distance stats are available for the 2019 tournament but all of the top 5 are above average for length off the tee.
Greens In Regulation
Rankings for the top 5 in 2019 were 3-6-20-39-6. Matsuyama was 1st in 2021.
Scrambling
Rankings for the top 5 in 2019 were 7-19-11-7-2. Matsuyama was 2nd in 2021.
Putting Average
Rankings for the top 5 in 2019 were 1-2-12-4-29. A good putting week is essential.
In Play
Tough Holes
The 4th, 12th and 5th were the three hardest holes in 2019.
Birdie Holes
The par 5s all played under par, with the par 5 18th hole the easiest hole on the course. Outside the par 5s, the short par 4th and short par 3 13th both played easy.
Fast or Slow Start
Matsuyama was in 2nd place after round one and led from 36 holes onwards. In 2019, Tiger Woods, Gary Woodland and Hideki Matsuyama were the front three after the opening 18 holes and all three finished inside the top 5 at the end of the tournament. Fast starts are preferred.
In-play
ZOZO Championship In-Play Blog
14th October 2022, 6:40pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Fowler |
-14 |
| Bradley |
-13 |
| Putnam |
-12 |
| Hovland |
-11 |
| Three players tied |
-10 |
Round 3 Summary
Players took advantage of calm conditions and preferred lies to post some low scores in round two of the ZOZO Championship. John Huh shot a 61 to catapult himself into contention and finds himself two shots behind Andrew Putnam and Rickie Fowler.
Notable Round 3 Quotes
"It's been a while since I've been in this situation. Last year at CJ was in a similar situation, but other than that, there hasn't been much the last few years. Obviously remember being in those situations before, but no, it will be tough tomorrow, but also fun. I'm looking forward to the challenge." Rickie Fowler
"I didn't play as well today as I played the previous two days, but still shot a good score. Got off to a weird start, settled in and made some nice putts coming down at the end." Keegan Bradley
"I hit a lot of greens. I think I hit all 18 greens today. Felt like I putted it really well, too, just except for four, five holes on the start of the back nine, but other than that, I hit my irons really well and putted well." Viktor Hovland
"I've been putting well, hitting it well, getting it up and down when I need to. For me, I like it here, just the atmosphere, the culture. I've always played well in Japan, I'm not sure why, but I just enjoy being here." Cameron Champ
Round 4 Weather
Cloudy with winds of 6-8mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Rickie Fowler is marginal favourite at 9/4. The American ranks 2nd for Greens in Regulation through the first three rounds and will take confidence from the fact he played nicely in round three. However, he hasn't been in contention since last year's CJ Cup and it remains to be seen how he will cope with the pressure. As noted in our Player Profile, he was nervy in contention that day and we certainly can't back him at 9/4.
Keegan Bradley can be backed at 5/2 but he's not for us. Our Player Profile has him down as a ⭐⭐ GBC Pressure Performance Rating and he's not somebody we can back at such short odds.
Viktor Hovland has moved into contention and he's available at 13/2. As mentioned in his quote above, he hit all 18 greens in round three and he's improving each round. His scores over the opening three days read 69-66-64 and he has to fancy his chances if the leaders show any vulnerability.
Where is the value?
It should be noted that the last two course winners have led going into the final round. However, as we noted yesterday, those players were Tiger Woods and Hideki Matsuyama. We wouldn't be surprised to see someone win from off the pace.
Round 4 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Cameron Champ 28/1 @ Skybet/Unibet (1/5 1-3)
Viktor Hovland made great appeal but he's fractionally short in our eyes and we're instead drawn to two young players with potential to go low in the final round. Cameron Champ shot a 64 in round three to haul himself into the equation and a similar effort would certainly ask a question tomorrow. His post round interview was extremely positive and his length will afford him plenty of scoring opportunities. He ranked 5th in Greens in Regulation in round three and a confident Champ is a dangerous proposition.
- 0.5pts Each Way Sahith Theegala 40/1 @ Coral/Ladbrokes (1/4 1-3)
Theegala has a bit more work to do than Champ but he too is capable of low scores and can't be ruled out even though he's five shots off the pace. A 63 on moving day was an impressive effort, especially considering he played the front nine in 29 shots. He's on record as saying this course reminds him of being back home on the West Coast of the USA and that comfort has become more apparent through the week. His score has improved by four shots every day and whilst it would be fantastic to see him improve on his 3rd round 63 by four shots, another 63 would put him firmly in contention.
.
14th October 2022, 1:40pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Fowler |
-10 |
| Putnam |
-10 |
| Bradley |
-9 |
| Huh |
-8 |
| Nakajima |
-7 |
Round 2 Summary
Players took advantage of calm conditions and preferred lies to post some low scores in round two of the ZOZO Championship. John Huh shot a 61 to catapult himself into contention and finds himself two shots behind Andrew Putnam and Rickie Fowler.
Notable Round 2 Quotes
"I'm still -- the last two days I wasn't exactly swinging it great. Like I said, I kind of did a good job of managing my way around. I'll get some work in tomorrow before the round and try and exaggerate a few things where I'm a little bit tighter in lines and flights that I want. Like I said, I just did a good job of accepting what I had and kind of moving forward with that." Rickie Fowler
"I look forward to this tournament every year. It's hard to get over here but yours and he here the food's great the people are even better so it's a great event." Keegan Bradley
"This course feels a lot like home, northwest golf. Obviously the clouds, I'm used to that, a lot of trees, and greens are rolling really smooth, so feel pretty comfortable out here." Andrew Putnam
Round 3 Weather
Cloudy with winds of 3-6mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Rickie Fowler and Keegan Bradley share favouritism at 4/1. Both players have been finding plenty of greens, with Bradley 2nd for Greens in Regulation and Fowler 5th. As you'll note from Rickie Fowler's quote above, he isn't entirely comfortable with his swing this week and that may well catch up with him as the pressure increases over the weekend. Bradley isn't one to trust in contention either and neither make much appeal at the odds.
Andrew Putnam is 3rd in the betting at 5/1 but his price is no more than fair and we'd prefer to seek out value further down the leaderboard.
Where is the value?
It should be noted that the last two course winners have led at the halfway stage. However, those players were Tiger Woods and Hideki Matsuyama. With all due respect to Rickie Fowler and Andrew Putnam, neither player is in the same league as the aforementioned and we're content to take them on.
Round 3 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Keita Nakajima 50/1 @ Speadex (1/5 1-4)
Those of you who watched our preview show, Fore The Win, will know that we liked the Japanese youngster pre-event at 500/1. However, he gave a pre-tournament interview that indicated he wasn't feeling confident and his swing wasn't where he wanted it to be. The stats reflect that to a certain extent with Nakajima ranking well down the Greens in Regulation stats. Annoyingly, he hasn't been interviewed since but odds of 50/1 are too big to ignore for a player only three shots off the lead. He's a player with enormous potential and given he'll enjoy home support over the weekend, he's worth taking a chance on.
13th October 2022, 2:40pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Steele |
-6 |
| Schenk |
-5 |
| Ryder |
-4 |
| Bradley |
-4 |
| Nesmith |
-4 |
| Five Players tied |
-3 |
Round 1 Summary
Brendan Steele finished with four birdies in a row, including a hole out on the 17th, to snatch the lead off Adam Schenk. pre-event favourite Xander Schauffele is placed nicely three shots back whilst Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama and Collin Morikawa could only manage a 71 and are seven shots back.
Round 2 Weather
Partly Sunny with light winds of 3-7mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Schauffele remains favourite and is arguably more value now than pre-event at 6/1, having a four shot lead over the trio of fancied players mentioned above. He is surrounded by many who struggle to get over the line on the PGA Tour and would put no one off getting him onside as cover bet.
Keegan Bradley is next in the betting at 10/1 and although we can see him placing, he is not clinical enough to interest us at 10/1. The same can be said of leader Brendan Steele who clearly likes this course after a 2nd place finish last year.
Where is the value?
The outright market looks wide open following numerous slow starts by the fancied runners. We will pick out a few who caught our eye.
Round 2 Bets
- 0.5pts Each Way Kurt Kitayama 80/1 @ Ladbrokes (1/5 1-5)
- 0.5pts Each Way Alex Smalley 80/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-5)
- 0.5pts Brandon Wu 100/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-5)
All three of these players are future winners on the PGA Tour and have started nicely with an under par round. Brandon Wu led greens in regulation in round one hitting 17/18 and Smalley and Kitayama only missed a handful too. All three players are long solid drivers of the ball who should suit the test here and present each way value at 80/1 and above.
Spreadsheet
Weekly Excel Spreadsheet
