Preview
Event Info
Starts: 3rd November 2022
Course: El Camaleon Golf Club, Mexico
Par: 71
Length: 7,034 yards
2021 Champion: Viktor Hovland
Course Info
Designer: Greg Norman
Course used since: 2007
Course type: Coastal and tree lined
Fairways: Narrow in places
Greens: Paspalum
Par 5's: 5th, 7th & 13th
Water Hazards: On 10 holes
Premium on: Approach play & putting
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Trends
Winning Score
Since 2013, the winning score has been between -17 and -23.
Course Experience
Since the event moved to it's current end of year slot in the calendar (in 2013), eight of the past nine champions have played here before (even if that was a missed cut). It is not an event to side with course debutants.
Course Form
Despite the need to have teed it up in this event, it hasn't been necessary to play well here prior to winning. Of the previous six winners here, only two had a top 40 finish prior to winning.
Recent Form
Three of the last nine champions had posted a top 7 finish in their previous start. Of the remaining six winners, only one (Matt Kuchar) had not recorded a top 40 finish in their previous start. Recent form is important.
Nationality
Americans have dominated here. Since the tournament began in 2007, the only non-American winners were Graeme McDowell (2015) and Viktor Hovland (2020 and 2021).
World Ranking
The last eight winners have ranked 17-23-185-40-236-271-82-90-68 (most recent first). Outsiders can win here.
First Round Tee Time
Five of the last six winners of this event have teed off on Thursday morning. As we'll learn below, a fast start is important here and playing Thursday morning appears to help.
Weather
Thursday
Possible thunderstorm with max winds of 11mph.
Friday
Possible thunderstorm with max winds of 10mph.
Saturday
Cloudy with max winds of 9mph.
Sunday
Sunny with max winds of 7mph.
Stats Analysis
Driving Distance
Only three of the last eight winners have ranked inside the top 20 for Driving Distance (Viktor Hovland (2020 and 2021) and Charley Hoffman (2014)). Brendon Todd (2019) and Graeme McDowell (2015) won when ranking outside the top 90 in this category.
Driving Accuracy
Only two of the last eight winners (Matt Kuchar (2018) and Viktor Hovland (2022)) have finished inside the top 15 for Driving Accuracy. Three of the last eight winners have finished outside the top 50 in this category. You can get away with errant tee shots here.
Greens In Regulation
Seven of the last eight winners have ranked inside the top 14 for Greens in Regulation. Graeme McDowell (2015) was the only winner not to have been inside the top 15. Players who find plenty of greens are preferred.
Putts Per GIR
Seven of the last eight winners have finished in the top 14 for putts per GIR. The only player who didn't (Matt Kuchar - 2018) ranked 61st. A hot putter is essential.
In Play
Fast or Slow Start
Every winner has posted a score of -2 or better in the first round. Two of the last seven winners have opened with a round of 63 or better. Four of the last six winners have been inside the top five after the opening round. The last six winners have been inside the top three through 54 holes.
Tough Holes
Be aware the 1st and 2nd holes traditionally play as two of the harder holes, a par start isn't unreasonable. The 1th hole played as the hardest hole the past two years.
Easy Holes
As with most events, the par 5s are the easiest holes. The two short par 3s on the front nine (4th and 8th) generally offer up birdie chances too.
In-play
2022 World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba In-Play Blog
6th November 2022, 10:55pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Henley |
-22 |
| Gordon |
-16 |
| Kizzire |
-16 |
| Power |
-15 |
| Harman |
-14 |
| Merritt |
-14 |
Round 3 Summary
Russell Henley continues to be bogey free due to some tremendous par saves and now has a commanding six shot lead.
Notable Round 3 Quotes
"Yeah, had some nice par saves, made a lot of good putts from five to eight feet and just, you know, hung in there. On the back nine I started hitting it better and
got into a little groove. Yeah, just overall it wasn't as solid tee to green as the first two days, but still managed to get the ball in the hole." Russell Henley
" It's obviously a bonus to hole out some of those shots, but it was one of those days, I was burning the edges all over the place with putts so it's kind of weird a couple of wedge shots went in. That's golf sometimes and hopefully I can get some of the putts to drop tomorrow." Seamus Power
"Not many of the guys I'm going up against tomorrow have done it here. Maybe Russell. Has Russell won here? I'm not sure. No? So I'll have that in my favor and I'm looking forward to it." Patton Kizzire
Round 4 Weather
Sunny with max winds of 6mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Henley continued his magic with the putter and if he can do the same again today he should win comfortably. It's always more difficult to do on Sunday's though, as he has found out in the last two years. Since october 2020, Henley has led four times going into the final round and not converted any.
He was five ahead with 9 holes to go at the Sony Open but Hideki Matsuyama caught him. He blew a three shot lead at the Wyndham Championship in 2021 and shot 76 when a co-leader at the 2021 US Open. In 2020, he shot 70 when leading the CJ Cup to finish 3rd.
Ultimately, Henley should go onto win this but it's not done and dusted yet and odds of 2/11 appear rather short with his record.
Where is the value?
Patton Kizzire at 10/1 is the 'without Henley' market at Bet365 is tempting, a big price considering he is tied for the lead. However, his tee to green game wasn't as strong yesterday which is slightly putting us off.
Round 3 Bet
- 1pt Win Only Seamus Power 28/1 @ Bet365
Taking into account Henley's record when leading (above), it may be worth a small investment in Seamus Power riding his wave of confidence. He is seven shots back but another 63 is possible which would make Henley have to work for his win. He spoke of many putts burning the edges yesterday and they may drop today to put some pressure on Henley.
5th November 2022, 12:35pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Henley |
-16 |
| Gordon |
-13 |
| Ryder |
-13 |
| Kizzire |
-12 |
| Lingmerth |
-11 |
| Three players tied |
-10 |
Round 2 Summary
Russell Henley is yet to make a bogey through 36 holes and takes a three shot lead into round three, following consecutive 63's.
Notable Round 2 Quotes
"Yeah, I felt great the last two days. Mentally felt confident and believing in what I was doing. Hit a lot of fairways and had some nice par saves today that kept my round going. Obviously very happy with where I am." Russell Henley
"Yeah, I think the most important thing, and I was talking to my caddie, too, is just being aggressive. I'm swinging it well and I'm rolling it well. I feel if I get on the greens, the hole looks fairly large, which it doesn't always." Sam Ryder
"I've had some opportunities out here and I haven't really succeeded, so I think I'm more to looking at what are the things I can do better and learning from past experiences out here, and on Korn Ferry when I have succeeded, what did I do in those moments. I think it all just reminds me to just try to continue to stay in
the moment and execute my routines and have high commitment and high acceptance and just enjoy the next 36 holes." Will Gordon
Round 3 Weather
Cloudy. Wind 5-8 mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Russell Henley is now as short as 11/8 to convert from here which isn't a price we could entertain. The reason the price is so short is likely due to the gap he has over the pre-event favourites - eight ahead of Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa, whilst he is TEN ahead of Scottie Scheffler.
However, the stats indicate he is worth taking on - Henley has failed to win the last SIX times he held the lead or co-lead. Furthermore, only two of the previous nine halfway leaders at Mayakoba have went on to win and Emiliano Grillo and Chris Stroud have both thrown away large halfway leads here.
With that said, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Henley maintain his lead and tomorrow may be the best day to oppose him if you're that way inclined
Where is the value?
One man is standing out to us in the outright market today.
Round 2 Bet
- 1.5pts Each Way Patton Kizzire 25/1 @ William Hill (1/4 1-3)
Kizzire didn't have much form coming in this week but appears to have found something, ranking 1st for greens in regulation and 5th for driving accuracy. He is a former champion here in 2017 and also a winner of the Sony Open the following year. Contention rust is the worry but he has the class to take this leaderboard on and can hopefully use his winning memory here to good effect.
4th November 2022, 9:35am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Gordon |
-9 |
| Henley |
-8 |
| Piercy |
-7 |
| Molinari |
-7 |
| Ryder |
-7 |
| English |
-7 |
| Twelve players tied |
-6 |
Round 1 Summary
Will Gordon leads the way after the opening round in which 89 players broke par and 27 players are within four shots of the lead.
Notable Round 1 Quotes
"(I) obviously have some good vibes at this place, won back in 2013, had some really good finishes here and just love it. Love the atmosphere, love the resort here, so I'm excited about the next few days." Harris English
"I think the last two years I've started 4 and 5 under, so even improved on that. And that was with -- obviously I made a couple putts and holed out from the bunker. Did a lot of good stuff today, but at the same time I felt like I hit some really bad shots, too. So I feel like there's still opportunities to improve." Viktor Hovland
"I just had an up-and-down week in Bermuda last week, played some really good golf for probably 68 holes and had a rough finish. So I didn't really have many expectations coming into this week." Will Gordon
Round 2 Weather
Cloudy. Wind 8-12 mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland are 6/1 and 7/1 respectively in the betting. Both players have excellent course records and it's ominous for the field that they have got off to strong starts. However, both players play in the trickier afternoon conditions in round two and it may be wise to see how they fare before looking to back them.
Russell Henley is 3rd in the betting at 10/1 but he makes very little appeal given his problems converting winning opportunities.
Where is the value?
Viktor Hovland (2021) is the only winner in the last five years to have been outside the top five after the opening round but there are several tempting prices further down the leaderboard.
Round 2 Bets
- 1pts Each Way Tony Finau 40/1 @ Unibet / Bet Rivers (1/5 1-5)
We were reluctant to play Tony Finau before the start of the event due to the fact he's had some time off recently and we weren't sure just how sharp he would be. Those fears proved to be correct when he triple bogeyed his 2nd hole yesterday. Three over par through his opening six holes, it was to his credit that he posted a three under par round of 68. That slow start has seen him drift out to 40/1 but that's a price we're keen to play now he's shaken off some of the competitive rust.
- 0.5pts Each Way Troy Merritt 80/1 @ Unibet / Bet Rivers (1/5 1-5)
Troy shot an opening round 65 but finds himself priced up at 80/1. He drove the ball nicely in round one, ranking 6th for Driving Accuracy. His performances have improved in each of his three starts here and we like him to better last year's 15th place finish.
Event Stats
Event Stats Coming Soon
