Preview
Course Info
Designer - Tom Weiskopf
Hosted since - 1987
Course Type - Desert
Fairways - Generous, Bermuda Grass
Rough - Bermuda
Greens - TifEagle Bermuda, 12 on the Stimp
Water Hazards - In play on 6 holes
Par 5's - 3rd, 13th and 15th
Premium on - Approach play
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
This event is normally a raucous affair with the infamous 16th known as the loudest hole in golf. Over 100,000 fans pass through the gates on a daily basis but last year fans were restricted to only 5,000.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Trends
Winning Score
Has ranged from -14 to -19 over the past eight years.
Price of Winner
We've not had a winner starting at over 50/1 since 2014 when Kevin Stadler took the title.
Correlating Courses
Look for strong performances at other desert events.
Course Form
Brooks Koepka won on his debut in 2015, but the following six champions each recorded a top 5 finish prior to winning. Side with strong course experience.
Recent Form
You don't need to be in blistering form to win. Although three of the past six champions have recorded a prior top 12 finish, Brooks Koepka, Gary Woodland and Hideki Matsuyama won following poor starts to the season.
Nationality
Of the last 13 champions, only Hideki Matsuyama's wins in 2017 and 2018 prevents it from being a clean sweep of Americans.
Stats Analysis
We are looking for a player with high SG: Approach stats.
SG: Off The Tee
The last five winners have ranked 11th, 26th, 3rd, 20th and 13th. Strong driving is preferred.
SG: Approach
Four of the past five winners have ranked inside the top 3. Approach play is key.
SG: Around The Green
The best ranking of any of the past five winners is 32nd (Brooks Koepka, 2021).
SG: Putting
We've seen varied putting performances from the winners over the past four years. Rankings of 18th, 15th, 1st, 23rd and 59th show us you don't have to putt the lights out.
In Play
Tough Holes
The 14th and 11th play as two difficult par 4s.
Birdie Holes
The three par 5's (3rd, 13th and 15th) are all very scoreable. The scoring stretch is undoubtedly the 13th to 18th.
Closing Stretch
The 16th is a challenging par 3 with fans heckling and booing poor shots. The 17th is a driveable par 4, and the par 4 18th is also a birdie opportunity with a good drive.
Fast or Slow Start
Brooks Koepka was five shots back after the opening round last year. Webb Simpson was 10 shots behind after an opening 71 in 2020. However, those two are very much the exception to the rule. Of the past six events, Webb and Brooks were the only winners who opened with a score of worse than 67.
2021 Course Notes
High Quality Leaderboard
Once again, leaderboard was packed with big names. Even Jordan Spieth made a return to form following almost a year without a top 10.
Wind
Very little in 2021.
The Cream will rise
None of the top 5 after round one were in the top 5 after round 3. The top players tend to come through just like in 2020. Take on the round one leaders.
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers. If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.
Martin Laird 150/1
A two time winner of the Shriners, he's always under consideration for desert events. A solid result at the Farmers was promising but we wanted closer to 200/1 in this field.
Brooks Koepka 33/1
We were on Brooks last year at 33/1 and his strong course record can't be dismissed. Seems to be too pre-occupied of fthe course the moment with new clothing lines and haircuts though.
Webb Simpson 45/1
Another with a strong course record, his performance at Sony wasn't the best and happy to see how he starts and look to back him in-play.
Bubba Watson 45/1
A hugely impressive performance last week and a solid record here but the travel back from Saudi Arabia leaves a question mark over how he starts. One for in-play perhaps.
Si Woo Kim 100/1
Strong recent form and proven results in the desert indicate he should go well but just hasn't clicked at TPC Scottsdale so far and that was enough to ultimately put us off.
Pat Perez 140/1
A local who has been in exceptional form of late, he should go well this week but others just preferred in his price range.
Max Homa 75/1
Probably the hardest man to leave out of the staking plan and will be a huge regret if he goes on to win. Very promising results here in his first 3 starts and a big price for a two time winner in 2021.
In-play
WM Phoenix Open In-Play Blog
13 February 2022, 12:40pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Theegala |
-14 |
| Koepka |
-13 |
| Schauffele |
-12 |
| Cantlay |
-12 |
| Scheffler |
-12 |
| Three Players Tied |
-12 |
Sadith Theegala retains his lead which none of us expected when he made a double on his 4th hole. To his credit he fought back well but he looks very short at 6/1 having had his lead cut yesterday.
The rookie playing on a sponsor exemption this week declared after the round that he felt "exhausted" and commented it was a very draining round. We would be extremely surprised if he gets the job done today.
Brooks Koepka is the man who has edged closest and is rated as 7/2 favourite to win. Brooks putted beautifully yesterday and he is quite rightly regarded as the man to beat.
Putting us off backing Brooks is the strength and depth of the chasing pack. There are eleven players within three of the lead and this could turn into quite a shootout with lots lots of leaderboard twists like we saw yesterday.
Koepka came from five back to win last year and it is quite common for the winner to come from behind at Scotsdale. Since 2010, only two winners were leading after 54 holes and they held four and six shot leads.
Between 2015 and 2018 the winner came from three shots back four years running and we will be hoping for Adam Hadwin or Max Homa to produce a similar off the pace win for us at three figure odds. Both finished strongly and we wouldn't out anyone off getting them onside now as they still remain juicy odds.
The same could be said of Tom Hoge who is looking to go back to back while Matsuyama has given himself a chance. The group at 12 under par - Cantlay, Schauffele, Scheffler and Gooch look really strong and there won't be a much harder Sunday leaderboard to call all season.
Given we have a couple of good outside chances already, we're only going to add a small each way play.
Round 4 Bet
- 0.5pts Each Way Garrick Higgo 80/1 @ General (1/4 1-3)
Garrick is four shots back after a best of the day 64 yesterday and his ball striking has been impressive last two days, picking up over three shots tee to green each day. The South African won his first PGA Tour title last year from six shots back of Chesson Hadley, which was his third win worldwide in 2021. We accept he has a lot of traffic to pass to win this but at 80/1 he is certainly worth a small play to do so.
12 February 2022, 10:50am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Theegala |
-12 |
| Koepka |
-10 |
| Schauffele |
-10 |
| Cantlay |
-9 |
| Three Players Tied |
-8 |
Sahith Theegala leads by two but is still fourth in the betting at 8/1 due to the quality of the chasing pack. Brooks Koepka Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay are all around the 9/2 range.
It's not the first time Theegala has led on the PGA Tour in his short career. He led or co-led through every round at the Sandersons Farms Championship last October, however closed with a 71 to finish 8th. It's hard to imagine him being able to hold off three of the world's best players close behind him.
Koepka and Schauffele were really impressive yesterday and in the end we were happy to see neither join the lead. Both are in control of their ball striking and could easily have been much lower. Koepka would be favoured slightly due to experience having won here but it's a really close call.
Patrick Cantlay has putted the lights out this week, picking up three strokes on the greens EACH day! He has lost strokes on approach both days and will struggle to keep pace if he continues like that, we are not tempted with Cantlay at 5/1.
If the leaders are to have a quiet day, we could be in excellent shape, with pre-event 160/1 tip Adam Hadwin and In-Play Max Homa at 100/1 in 5th place currently. Homa in particular is bogey free so far and playing some great stuff.
With the expectation that Koepka or Schauffele goes low today, we're happy to let the round play out and see how it looks tomorrow.
For anyone that isn't aware, we provide a YouTube and Podcast preview of the final round on the PGA Tour that is out around 4 hours before the leaders tee off so keep an eye out on our twitter page!
Round 3 Bet
11 February 2022, 9:40am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Theegala (through 16) |
-7 |
| Lee K |
-6 |
| Four players tied |
-5 |
The players were unable to finish round one due to darkness and Sahith Theegala (30/1) has a 16ft par save to keep the solo lead on his penultimate hole.
The pre-event market favourites have started nicely, with Brooks Koepka at -5 and Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele all lurking at -4. Hideki Matsuyama is one further back at -3.
From the front of the market, Thomas leads the approach stats and looks a fair price at 8/1 and Koepka is also tempting at 12/1, but given the amount of quality surrounding we're happy to leave the favourites alone and reassess at halfway.
Winners have come from all sorts of positions here at Scottsdale. After round one, Webb Simpson was 10 shots back in 66th place in 2020 and Koepka has won from 5 back (2021) and 7 back (2015). That's good news for Viktor Hovland and Jordan Spieth backers, who have plenty of work to do.
We look set for another sunny day at Phoenix and the wind shouldn't be much of a factor, peaking at 5mph.
Round 2 Bets
- 0.75pts Each Way Max Homa 100/1 @ SpreadEx (1/5 1-5)
Max was a player on our shortlist beforehand as he has a strong record here and we're surprised to see the 100/1 available on him this morning. He is two under par despite losing almost two strokes on the greens yesterday and his driving and approach play were in fine order. Max loves courses with firm conditions like we have here and we're optimistic his putting should improve, having picked up strokes in his last three tournaments on the greens. He won the Genesis in February last year and followed with the Fortinet Championship - both of which were in strong fields so we know he can get the job done in this company. Take the 90/1 available generally if you don't have a SpreadEx account.
- 0.5pts Each Way Keegan Bradley 100/1 @ Ladbrokes (1/4 1-5)
Keegan is one of the best iron players on tour and it showed yesterday, ranking 3rd for approach. Like Thomas, he lost shots on the greens yesterday and he will need to improve in this department to win this week. The firm greens will demand strong iron play this week and could be an equaliser for bad putters, causing difficulty to most players. He has made 7/9 cuts at Scottsdale without ever recording a top 10 but at 100/1 he is worth a small play to contend this week.
