Wells Fargo Championship 2022

Event Info

Starts: 5th May 2022
Course: TPC Potomac
Par: 70
Length: 7,160 yards
2020 Champion: N/A

Preview
In-play

Preview

Course Info

Designer: Ed Ault, Ed Sneed, Tom Clark
Last Used: 2018
Fairways: Narrow
Rough: Bentgrass
Greens: Bentgrass
Water Hazards:
Par 5's: 2nd and 10th
Premium on: Accuracy

Significant Info

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.

This event is normally played at Quail Hollow but will be played at TPC Potomac this year as Quail Hollow is being used for the Presidents Cup later in the year.

TPC Potomac hosted the Quicken Loans National in 2017 & 2018. It also hosted web.com events in 2012 and 2013.

Weather

Thursday
Sunny intervals with a max wind speed of 8mph.

Friday
Potential thunderstorm with a max wind speed of 13mph.

Saturday
Potential thunderstorm with a max wind speed of 12mph.

Sunday
Sunny intervals with a max wind speed of 11mph.

Trends

Winning Score
The winning scores in 2017 and 2018 were quite contrasting. Stanley won in 2017 with -7, Maolinari won in 2018 with a score of -21.

Course Form
Molinari didn't play the 2017 event prior to his win in 2018 and Stanley was playing an event there for the first time.

Recent Form
Molinari came into the event in 2018 in excellent form (25th, 2nd and 1st in his three previous starts). Stanley was a little less impressive but also reasonably strong (57-27-6).

World Ranking
The world ranking of the past two course champions has been 15-94.

Nationality
The PGA Tour events at TPC Potomac have yielded a European and an American winner.

Correlating Courses
Francesco Molinari and Kyle Stanley both have top 3 finishes at The Memorial. Stanley actually has three top 6 finishes there.

Stats Analysis

We have two years of Strokes Gained data to assess from the 2017 & 2018 Quicken Loans National.

SG: Off The Tee
The last two course winners have ranked 10-2.

Driving Accuracy
The last two course winners have ranked 5-3. Accuracy off the tee is very important.

Driving Distance
The last five winners have ranked 39-51. Distance is not essential.

SG: Approach
The last two winners have ranked 1-4.

Greens in Regulation
The last two winners have ranked 1-1! Accuracy tee to green is essential this week.

SG: Around The Green
The last two winners have ranked 13-39.

SG: Putting
The last two winners have ranked 23-66.

In Play

Tough Holes
The 11th played as the hardest hole on the PGA Tour in 2017! Holes 6-12 play tough so be wary of backing players around the middle of their round.

Birdie Holes
The two par 5s offer obvious birdie opportunities, as do the 13th and 14th.

Closing Stretch
The last couple of holes offer up few birdie opportunities. Kyle Stanley made eight pars on holes 17 and 18 in 2017. Francesco Molinari made six pars and two birdies in 2018.

Fast or Slow Start
Molinari was 10th after round 1 in 2018. Stanley was 32nd in 2017.

Stanley found himself ten shots back at the halfway stage in 2017. Molinari trailed by a shot in 2018.

In-play

Wells Fargo Championship In-Play Blog

8 May 2022, 10:45am (UK time)

Player	Total
Bradley	-8
Homa	-6
Lahiri	-4
Hahn	-4
Fitzpatrick	-3
Seven Players Tied	-2

How do we expect this round to play out?

Yesterday saw very challenging conditions with cold and wet weather resulting in an average of over 3 over par. Leader Jason Day shot 79 and finds himeslf seven back now. Today is meant to be dry although conditions will still be very cold and the wind will be around 10mph gusting up to 20mph on occasions. It is very possible Bradley is already on the winning score and it could even be less.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

We have a new leader in Keegan Bradley who is now 5/4 to convert. Bradley has a terrible record when leading, finishing 2nd in all three occasions that he has led. All four of his PGA Tour wins have come from behind and he is one we generally oppose in this situation, as you can see from our 2* Pressure Performance Rating.

Max Homa is the only player within two shots of the leader and has a lot more recent winning experience than Bradley. Most parts of his game are looking solid currently and it's likely he will make Bradley work hard for a win. Homa is available at 11/4 which is fairly generous given the spread out feel to the leaderboard.

Lahiri and Hahn shouldn't be discounted four back although the later has been reliant on a hot putter this week. Lahiri did very well in the final group at The Players Championship and he was very much in our thoughts at 16/1. Matt Fitzpatrick is the third favourite in the betting but looks short enough at 14/1 whilst McIlroy at 18/1 is a little bit more tempting due to his round four performances from off the pace recently.

What markets should we be looking at?

With Bradley very much worth taking on, we should be looking at who is most likely to capitalise in the outright market. The Top 10 market is also of interest too us given the nature of the leaderboard.

Round 4 Bets

2pts Max Homa Win Only 11/4 @ Unibet

As mentioned above, Max has a lot more recent positive memories to take from final rounds having won twice last year and a winner of this event in 2019 at a different venue. He ranks in the top 10 of every strokes gained category apart from around the greens which is no concern as his short game is usually strong anyway. We would have had Bradley and Homa far closer in the betting today.

0.5pts Each Way Luke List 66/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-3)

Luke had a bad day at the office yesterday but still ranks 2nd tee to green overall and still has an outside chance of winning this. He won the Farmers from five back earlier this year, also in cold conditions, so he will be confident of challenging today. The last two winners on this course both ranked 1st tee to green for the week so another good display today could see List do similar. Cameron Young is 1st tee to green this week and on the same score as List, but odds of 40/1 felt a bit short.

2pts Nick Taylor Top 10 Finish 3/1 @ Betfair

Nick is just one back of the log jam in 6th place at 2 under par after a tidy one under par round yesterday, where he recorded better stats than Rory McIlroy tee to green. He is ranked 3rd for the week overall and has history in cold conditions, famously defeating Phil Mickelson at Pebble Beach a few years ago. Odds of 3/1 seem generous for him to sneak a T10.

+ - Round 3 Bets Click to collapse

7 May 2022, 12:05pm (UK time)

Player	Total
Day	-10
Homa	-7
Kitayama	-6
List	-6
Hahn	-6
McCarthy	-6

How do we expect this round to play out?

There is currently a fair amount of separation in the leaderboard with Day three clear of Homa. Molinari was one back at this stage in 2018 but in 2017, winner Kyle Stanley was 10 back at halfway and he wasn't the only one. Runner up Charles Howell was also 10 back and 3rd place Rickie Fowler was 12 back! David Lingmerth was the leader and ranked 99th in the world at that point so big swings are possible here.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

At the top of the leaderboard. we have two established winners in Jason Day and Max Homa. Day putted much better yesterday and still leads the field tee to green and approach. We must expect him to continue his solid play and the lead should be at least 12 under par but he may be worth taking on tomorrow - Day hasn't won since 2018 and passed up several opportunities since. Homa ranks in the top 10 for tee to green, approach and putting so it's hard to make a case against him either. If pushed to choose a winner at this stage, Homa looks the most value at 6/1 but we're happy to wait and see how today play's out first.

What markets should we be looking at?

With the leading two looking quite strong, we should perhaps be turning our attention to other markets, although we were tempted by Tony Finau at 66/1 to come from off the pace over the weekend. We will take him to win his 3-ball instead.

Round 3 Bet

3pts Tony Finau to beat Matt Wolff and Scott Piercy 11/10 @ Skybet

Finau won this match up by two shots yesterday and we expect a similar result today. Finau finished last week well with a 66-63 which will be a positive recent memory. Wolff's play was considerably worse yesterday than round one and appears happy just to be keeping a positive mindset instead of scoring well this week. Piercy is a danger but Finau should have too much for him.

{slider=Round 2 Bets}

6 May 2022, 10:15am (UK time)

Player	Total
Day	-7
Dahmen	-6
Wolff	-5
Barjon	-5
Tarren	-5
Rai	-5
McCarthy	-5

How do we expect this round to play out?

The weather forecast throws up a bit of uncertainty with potential thunderstorms in the morning, meaning play could be delayed. If they manage to avoid any disruption in play, the early starters should have an advantage, with the wind picking up from 6mph in the morning to 14mph in the afternoon.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Jason Day has assumed Rory McIlroy's role as favourite and the Aussie is now 6/1. He will have the potential advantage of an early start and took the lead despite ranking 48th for SG: Putting. He looks sharp again, hit 12/14 fairways yesterday and ranked 1st tee to green. We have to expect him to continue his good play. McIlroy hit more greens than Day yesterday (16/18) but had a horrendous day around the greens. We said before the event that there would be better courses to suit Rory and we stand by that, seeing no value in the current 8/1.

What markets should we be looking at?

With a lot of variables in the forecast, it is still unknown if any side of the draw will get the better deal, but looks most likely to be the morning starters even if there is couple hours of delay. With Jason Day expected to kick on, we have spotted another likely fast starter today.

Round 2 Bet

1pt Each Way Paul Barjon '2nd Round Leader' 25/1 @ Betfair (1-4 1/4)

We're not sure Barjon is ready to win just yet so we will play him in this market as he has already played himself into a final round group at the American Express earlier this year. Barjon is two behind Day after a bogey free 65 where he hit 17/18 greens in regulation and ranked 4th SG: tee to green and 2nd for SG: approach. Should we see something similar today, he will be right up there and has a realistic chance of being in the top four at halfway.

View Archived Events