Preview
Course Info
Designer: Greg Norman
Used Since: 2010
Fairways: Mix of wide and narrow
Rough: Bermuda (thick)
Greens: Bermuda (11.5 stimp)
Water Hazards: On 3 holes
Par 5's: 2nd, 8th, 14th and 18th
Premium on: Sound long game
Significant Info
TPC San Antonio also hosted a Korn Ferry Tour event in 2020, the TPC San Antonio Championship at the Oaks.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather
The forecast is for sunshine/cloud all week. No rain is forecast.
Thursday
Sunny - 8mph wind
Friday
Partly Cloudy - 16mph wind
Saturday
Sunny - 11mph wind
Sunday
Partly Cloudy - 11mph wind
Trends
Winning Score
Since TPC San Antonio started hosting the event, winning score have ranged between -8 and -20. Conditions often dictate the winning score.
Course Form
Five of the past eight champions had recorded a Top 10 finish here prior to winning this event. Each of the winners here since 2013 had played this event at least once prior to their win.
Recent Form
Five of the past six champions had recorded a top 42 finish in their last start prior to winning here. Corey Conners was the exception in 2019 (missed the cut in his previous start).
World Ranking
The world ranking of the past six champions has been 53-196-114-38-57-13 (most recent first). Corey Conners won in 2019 when Monday qualifying.
Nationality
Seven of the eleven winners at this course have been American.
Stats Analysis
SG: Off The Tee
The last four winners have ranked 38-5-16-6.
Driving Distance
The last five winners have ranked 33-61-87-46-16.
Driving Accuracy
The last five winners have ranked 78-12-66-83-62.
SG: Approach
The last four winners have ranked 4-1-1-4.
Greens In Regulation
The last five winners have ranked 66-1-1-3-27.
SG: Around The Green
The last four winners have ranked 3-100-46-53.
SG: Putting
The last five winners have ranked 6-36-13-35-7.
In Play
Tough Holes
The 4th and 9th played as the two hardest holes in 2019 but the 1st has regularly caused problems in previous years.
Birdie Holes
The short par 4 17th hole is amongst the three easiest holes each year. The 2nd and 14th are also good birdie opportunities.
Closing Stretch
16-18 offer birdies and are more likely to play under par than over par.
Fast or Slow Start
The last six champions have all been inside the top 20 after round one. Four of those champions have been inside the top 7. It is important to get off to a good start.
Each of the past five winners have been inside the top 3 at halfway. Three of the past five champions have led going into the final round. Make no mistake, this is not a catch up course.
Players We Almost Backed
Patton Kizzire 55/1
There's plenty to like about Patton this week. A top 10 here last year and solid recent form. We would have liked 66/1.
Luke List 55/1
The initial value on Luke went early in the week and like Kizzire, we would have wanted 66/1.
Alex Smalley 100/1
Alex finished 2nd last week in Puntacana and was an attractive price to carry that form into this week. History shows us he is capable of posting a big finish after a strong result.
Nick Taylor 125/1
Nick's recent form has been rock solid and was top 10 last week for Greens in Regulation at the Puntacana. However, we'vehad our fingers burnt too often with Nick and reluctantly left him out.
Kevin Chappell 200/1
A ast winner of this event who finished 15th last week after apoor opening round. He's definitely one to watch in running.
Richy Werenski 300/1
Richy is a player to avoid when he's out of form but he's shown glimpses recently that a big result may be around the corner. Two top 25 finishes in his last three starts as well as an 11th place finish here in 2019 marked him out as a potential option. Others ultimately preferred.
Martin Trainer 500/1
Martin finished 7th last week and has been priced up at 500/1 this week which is too big in our opinion. He was last man off the list this week.
In-play
Valero Texas Open In-Play Blog
3 April 2022, 9:05am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Snedeker |
-10 |
| Spaun |
-10 |
| Hossler |
-10 |
| Frittelli |
-10 |
| Stallings |
-9 |
| Kuchar |
-8 |
*Don't forget - This week's episode of The Closing Stretch will be available shortly. Subscribe here to make sure you don't miss out on a notification when it goes live*
As anticipated in yesterday's in-play blog, round 3 leader Ryan Palmer struggled, allowing a group of four players to jointly lead going into the final round.
Of the four, Dylan Frittelli is the man the bookmakers rate as the most likely to go on an win. The South African is a best price 9/2 to convert from here and rightly so. His CV includes two DP European Tour wins along with a PGA Tour win and a couple of top 5 finishes in Majors in recent years.
Frittelli stated in his post round press conference that he feels he's "playing well enough to win this tournament." However, the same interview also referenced his lack of recent contention experience and just how much it would mean to him to win the Texas Open given he went to college in the State. Those factors may well creep into his mind and he's probably short enough in the betting for us.
Behind Frittelli in the betting is Beau Hossler. He too went to college in Texas and will hope local support will see him improve on his last effort in contention. Hossler jointly led going into the final round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am a couple of months ago but a nervy start saw him three over par through his opening five holes and he ultimately slipped to 3rd.
We expect a better showing from Hossler this time around given that recent experience. He spoke in the press conference yesterday about how comfortable he is and how the course firming up and playing harder suits him.
Brandt Snedeker and JJ Spaun are both available at 13/2 but both are approaching the final round with very different perspectives. Snedeker is a nine time winner on the PGA Tour and stated in his post round press conference that he hopes to "pull on those years of experience." In contrast, Spaun has never won on the PGA Tour and hasn't won anywhere since 2016.
Our in-play blogs the past two days had identified Spaun and Snedeker as value and we have them onside at 33/1 and 90/1. Both men are playing well so far, Snedeker is leading SG: Tee to Green and Spaun is 7th in that same category. We're hopeful of a good showing today given their solid play thus far but Spaun's lack of recent contention experience may harm him more than the others.
The last five winners of this event have been inside the top 3 after 54 holes but we shouldn't dismiss those chasing the four leaders. We saw several rounds of 67 yesterday and a round of 66 or 67 from one of the chasers would likely ask a question.
A previously mentioned, we are in a strong position with two of the four leaders (Spaun and Snedeker) having been tipped up in our in-play blogs. We also have a further three pre-event selections inside the top 21 so we're hopeful of a good return. We are adding one further play today.
The players will have ideal conditions for the final round. Sunshine is expected and the wind is set to peak at 11mph.
Round 4 Bets
- 1.25pts Each Way Maverick McNealy 22/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-4)
Maverick is searching for his first PGA Tour win but this is exactly the sort of event where he could breakthrough. He hasn't always convinced when front running but the pressure will largely be off today and he will be able to go out and attempt to shoot a low score. That's exactly what he did at last year's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am as he finished 2nd and given his iron play has been strong this week, we could well see a similar outcome. He's 6th SG: Approach this week and 2nd SG: Tee to Green so far this week, if the putter is hot he'll go close.
2 April 2022, 12:05pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Palmer |
-10 |
| Chappell |
-8 |
| Kuchar |
-8 |
| Frittelli |
-8 |
| Four Players Tied |
-7 |
The weather bias failed to materialise as expected yesterday and as a result three of the top four are from the Early-Late starters. Texan Ryan Palmer has played himself into a two shot lead over three players and can be backed at 9/2 this morning.
Being up with the pace at halfway has been the way to get the job done here in recent years - three of the last five winners have been in the top three at this stage. That suggests we should be looking at the front four, although it's never as simple as that.
Ryan Palmer is hardly the most inspiring of leaders either. Although a three time winner on tour, he hasn't won an individual strokeplay event since 2010 despite countless opportunities to add to that tally. Our player profile has Ryan set at 1 star for pressure performance after performing poorly when holding the lead.
He ranks 3rd for putting this week and although steady in other categories too, he scrambled his way home yesterday and it is likely to be a sign of things to come this weekend. At the odds provided, he isn't for us.
Matt Kuchar birdied four his last five holes and has to be respected but he's probably scoring as well as he could. Dylan Frittelli and Kevin Chappell would be preferred out of the group in 2nd place, in particular Chappell who was one of our first reserves pre-event, but the odds aren't exciting us so we will leave for now.
The wind is set to die down today and shouldn't be as much of a factor.
Round 3 Bets
- 2pts Kevin Chappell to beat Matt Kuchar and Ryan Palmer 5/2 @ 10bet
With question marks over Ryan Palmer's play when holding the lead and Kuchar squeezing the best out of his play so far, the door might be open for Chappell to win this three ball today. Chappell is a previous winner here with good memories to draw upon and is performing well in every stats category this week. We expected to see closer to 2/1 so anything over that seems a value play.
- 0.5pts Each Way Brandt Snedeker 90/1 @ Unibet (1/4 1-4)
Snedeker is five back but has history coming from behind to win and looks to be playing himself into some form. If he can maintain the level of approach play he showed yesterday, he can force himself into contention over the weekend.
1 April 2022, 9:05am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Knox |
-7 |
| Hojgaard |
-6 |
| Kuchar |
-5 |
| Spaun |
-5 |
| Mccarthy |
-5 |
| Rai |
-5 |
Russell Knox holds the first round lead after a double bogey from Rasmus Hojgaard on his closing hole. Both were part of the morning wave and the best the afternoon starters could manage was a 67 which is two off the lead.
Knox and Rasmus are now 10/1 and 14/1 respectively but both will need to defy a likely weather bias, with the morning starters set to get the far superior conditions. They will tee off at winds of around 5mph whereas the leaders will have winds of around 15mph to contend with.
Our Preview highlighted that this is not usually a catch up event but it would not be a surprise to see some morning starters play their way into contention today from some way back. The group of Denny McCarthy, J J Spaun and Aaron Rai all sit in a great position off early today.
There is a couple of prices we like this morning to take advantage of this bias.
Round 2 Bets
- 1pt Each Way J.J Spaun 33/1 @ Ladbrokes (1/4 1-5)
- 1pt WIN ONLY J.J. Spaun '2nd Round Leader' 22/1 @ Betfair
Out of the three mentioned above, Spaun is our preferred at the prices and 33/1 represents a value price. Spaun is playing some solid golf lately, making six of his last eight cuts. In his last start at Valspar, he ranked 5th off the tee and 5th for approach. Yesterday he ranked 2nd tee to green and he has a nice early start today to make his move.
- 1pt Each Way Henrik Norlander 80/1 @ Ladbrokes (1/4 1-5)
- 1pt Each Way Henrik Norlander '2nd Round Leader' 50/1 @ Betfair (1/4 1-4)
Like Spaun, Norlander is off early today and should enjoy the best of the weather. His long game was excellent yesterday, ranking 6th SG: Tee To Green. He's a winner on the Korn Ferry Tour,twice a runner up on the PGA Tour and has recorded several other top 5 finishes on Tour. He's too big in both the outright and 2nd round leader market in our opinion.
