Event Info
Starts: 1st April 2021
Course: TPC San Antonio, Texas
Par: 72
Length: 7,494 yards
2020 Champion: N/A
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -14.5pts
Pre-Event Bets: -8pts
1pt EW Zach Johnson 50/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-8)
1pt EW Matt Kuchar 50/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Doug Ghim 80/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Danny Willett 90/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
0.5pts EW Martin Laird 100/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Bronson Burgoon 250/1 Skybet (1/5 1-8)
In-Play Bets: -6.5pts
2 April 2021 (-3pts)
1.5pts EW Sunghoon Kang (1/4 1-5) - 33/1 @ William Hill
3 April 2021 (-1.5pts)
0.75pts EW Brandon Hagy (1/5 1-4) - 50/1 @ William Hill
4 April 2021 (-2pts)
2pts Charley Hoffman Win Only 5/1 @ General
Preview
Course Info
Designer: Greg Norman
Used Since: 2010
Fairways: Narrow
Rough: Bermuda (thick)
Greens: Bermuda (11.5 stimp)
Water Hazards: On 3 holes
Par 5's: 2nd, 8th, 14th and 18th
Premium on: Sound long game
Significant Info
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather
The forecast is for sunshine/cloud all week. No rain is forecast.
Thursday
Max 13mph winds forecast
Friday
Max 14mph winds forecast
Saturday
Max 12mph winds forecast
Sunday
Max 12mph winds forecast
Trends
Winning Score
Corey Conners won with -20 in 2019, the lowest score since the tournament was first held here in 2010. The highest winning score has been -8 (2011 and 2014).
Course Form
Four of the past seven champions had recorded a top 9 finish prior to winning this event. Each of the winners here since 2013 had played this event at least once prior to their win.
Recent Form
Four of the past five champions had recorded a top 42 finish in their last start prior to winning here. Corey Conners was the exception in 2019 (missed the cut in his previous start).
World Ranking
The world ranking of the past five champions has been 196-114-38-57-13 (most recent first). Corey Conners won in 2019 when Monday qualifying.
Nationality
Six of the ten winners at this course have been American.
Stats Analysis
SG: Off The Tee
The last three winners have ranked 5-16-6.
Driving Distance
The last four winners have ranked 61-87-46-16.
Driving Accuracy
The last four winners have ranked 12-66-83-62.
SG: Approach
The last three winners have ranked 1-1-4
Greens In Regulation
The last four winners have ranked 1-1-3-27.
SG: Around The Green
The last three winners have ranked 100-46-53
SG: Putting
The last three winners have ranked 36-13-35-7.
In Play
Tough Holes
The 4th and 9th played as the two hardest holes in 2019 but the 1st has regularly caused problems in previous years.
Birdie Holes
The short par 4 17th hole is amongst the three easiest holes each year. The 2nd and 14th are also good birdie opportunities.
Closing Stretch
16-18 offer birdies and are more likely to play under par than over par.
Fast or Slow Start
The last five champions have all been inside the top 20 after round one. Three of those champions have been inside the top 7. It is important to get off to a good start.
Each of the past five winners have been inside the top 3 at halfway. Three of the past five champions have led going into the final round. Make no mistake, this is not a catch up course.
In-play
Valero Texas Open In-Play Blog
4 April 2021, 10.15am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Wallace | -12 |
| Spieth | -12 |
| Hoffman | -10 |
| Tringale | -8 |
| Lahiri | -7 |
| Four players Tied | -6 |
We have one more round in Texas to go, but we would be lying if we said our attention isn't already turning towards Augusta. The hype of the first men's major of the season does this to every preceding event, but even more so this week due to the spread out nature of the leaderboard.
Nevertheless, we have a final round to assess here. There appear to be three (four at a stretch) genuine contenders to win today. As expected, overnight leader Cameron Tringale looked nervous yesterday and has drifted out to 16/1, four shots off the leaders. It will be extremely hard to come back from the disappointment of a 73 yesterday and he’s probably left himself to much to do.
Matt Wallace and Jordan Speith managed matching 67’s and they now hold a two shot lead over Charley Hoffman, who made the move of the day with a 65. Spieth is now best priced at 21/20 and you can get Wallace at 9/4.
In yesterday’s blog we mentioned Spieth’s recent woes in contention and previously said we won’t be backing him until he gets his first comeback win. This is undoubtedly his best chance to do so but at that price we would be happy to miss out.
Wallace is a gritty performer, and although he has yet to win in America it would be the natural progression in his career and a massive boost to his Ryder Cup hopes. Out of the two, he would be preferred but the momentum may just be with the man lurking two shots back.
Sunday's Bet
- 2pts Charley Hoffman Win Only 5/1 @ General
Charley was eleven shots behind after an opening 75 but has bounced back in fine style with a 66 and 65. He has made up 9 shots on the field tee to green and ranks 2nd off the tee. We thought his price at the start of the week was a little short but we’re more than happy to get onboard now as it looks like a four horse race. He is a previous winner here in 2016, also coming from two shots back to defeat Patrick Reed by one. Spieth and Wallace both have a lot at stake today and we rate Charley a better chance than 5/1 of taking advantage.
3 April 2021, 9.05am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Tringale | -9 |
| Wallace | -7 |
| Spieth | -7 |
| Snedeker | -5 |
| Stanley | -5 |
| Stadler | -5 |
| Van Rooyen | -5 |
Cameron Tringale recovered from bogeys at his opening two holes and has opened up a two shot lead at the Valero Texas Open. He is now a general 11/4 to win for the first time on the PGA Tour.
Tringale has teed it up over 300 times as a professional but is yet to taste victory. We were scathing of his odds yesterday and it's even harder to like him at 11/4. He may well go on to win from here but it's not a price we'd like to take.
The man Tringale must beat according to the bookmakers is Jordan Spieth. Spieth is as short as 2/1 to convert from here and he'll have plenty of backers at that price. However, for all his recent play has been excellent, his Sunday performances when in contention have been weak. Our Player Profile summarises his struggles in recent weeks and like Tringale, he's one we are happy to pass up at 2/1.
Matt Wallace is next in the betting at 8/1. He was bogey free yesterday and the 8/1 is tempting considering his long game is in superb order (2nd SG: Tee To Green). He's yet to win on the PGA Tour but four wins on the European Tour show he's a player who knows how to win. With that said, he was poor when last in serious contention at the Scottish Championship. He held a three shot lead going into Sunday in Scotland and although Adrian Otaegui was probably unstoppable that day, Wallace certainly didn't do himself any favours. Everyone can have an off day though and we wouldn't put you off him.
Each of the past five champions has been inside the top 3 after 36 holes. With that in mind, our betting strategy today is to look for a player who is capable of an each way place, with a win an added bonus.
The forecast is to be overcast with winds of around 12mph all day.
Saturday's Bet
- 0.75pts Each Way Brandon Hagy 50/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-4)
Brandon posted a career best finish two weeks ago at the Honda Classic, closing with a 66 to finish 2nd. He ranks 1st SG: Tee To Green this week and coming from off the pace may well suit him given he's yet to win as a professional on one of the main tours. In his post-round interview at The Honda he spoke about that finish setting him up for the rest of the year and to some extent he'll be freed up to play this week knowing that another good finish will see him secure his card for next year. Finally, for those of you who believe in significant birthdays and The Nappy Factor, Brandon and his partner had a baby girl in August last year and he celebrated his 30th birthday two weeks ago.
2 April 2021, 10.45am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Villegas | -8 |
| Kang | -6 |
| Tringale | -6 |
| Spieth | -5 |
| Noh | -5 |
| Matsuyama | -5 |
Camilo Villegas leads the way but it is Jordan Spieth who is the bookies favourite at 9/2. Spieth shot a morning 67 that looked difficult to beat but calm conditions later in the day saw the afternoon players take advantage.
It was no surprise to see Spieth only hit six fairways but the rest of his game was in good order and we'd expect him to remain in contention. Four top 10 finishes from his last six starts shows just how strong his approach play is. However, he's still prone to a wide off the tee and on a course where Kevin Na recorded a 16 on one hole, we're not hugely keen to jump in at 9/2.
Cameron Tringale and Hideki Matsuyama are second in the betting at 6/1 and of the two it would be Matsuyama who we'd favour. He ranked 2nd in SG: Off The Tee yesterday and if he can get sharpen his approach play, which is normally a strength, he'll go close. In terms of Tringale, he's yet to win an event after 300+ starts and makes Tony Finau seem prolific. Tringale may well win but 6/1 is a terrible price when compared to others on offer.
Those of you looking for a bet shouldn't look too far down the leaderboard. The last five champions have been inside the top twenty after round one. It is not a tournament to play catch up so we'll be focusing our attention on those players who have started well.
The morning starters are due to get the best of conditions today as the wind will not pick up to 10mph until around 11am. The afternoon starters will play in winds of 12mph+.
Friday's Bet
- 1.5pts Each Way Sunghoon Kang 33/1 @ William Hill (1/4 1-5)
It's not been a great year for Sunghoon as his best finish is 63rd from eight starts. However, he's a past winner in Texas, having won the 2019 AT&T Byron Nelson. He was often sent to practice in Texas as a teenager and as a result is comfortable playing in the state. Our Player Profile marks him out as a player who is unpredictable so it doesn't overly concern us that his form has been poor this season. He led the field in SG: Approach yesterday and said in his post-round interview that he had a putting tip from Pat Perez and felt that made a huge difference. He may well struggle today but considering the emphasis this tournament places on a fast start, we're happy to take the chance.
