Event Info
Starts: 24th June 2021
Course: TPC River Highlands
Par: 70
Length: 6,841 yards
2020 Champion: Dustin Johnson
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: +13pts
Pre-Event Bets: -9pts
1pt EW Si Woo Kim 50/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
0.75pts EW Aaron Wise 80/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Chez Reavie 140/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
0.25pts EW Danny Lee 200/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
1.5pts Chase Seiffert Top 20 Finish 8/1 @ Ladbrokes
1pt Austin Eckroat Top 20 Finish 17/2 @ Boylesports
1.5pt Henrik Norlander Top Continental European 7/1 @ William Hill
In-Play Bets: +22pts
25 June 2021 (-4pts)
1pt EW Zach Johnson 66/1 @ Skybet(1/4 1-5)
2pts Win Only Sam Burns 20/1 @ Skybet
26 June 2021 (-2pts)
1pt EW K H Lee 40/1 @ Sport Nation(1/5 1-5)
27 June 2021 (+28pts)
2pts Win Only Harris English 14/1 @ Skybet
Preview
Course Info
Designer: Dye redesign in the 1980s
Used Since: 1991
Fairways: Average/narrow width, Tree Lined
Greens: Small, Poa Annua
Water Hazards: On 5 holes
Par 5's: 6th and 13th
Premium on: Approach play
Significant Info
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Expect low scoring - Jim Furyk recored a 58 here in 2016.
Be aware that the greens used to be Bentgrass and ran quite slow, but an overhaul several years ago saw Poa Annua introduced with the greens now notably faster.
Weather
Thursday
Sunny with a max wind speed of 9mph.
Friday
Sunny intervals with a max wind speed of 9mph.
Saturday
Sunny intervals with a max wind speed of 12mph.
Sunday
Showers with a max wind speed of 13mph.
Trends
Winning Score
The winning score has ranged from -12 to -20 in the past 10 years.
Course Form
Eight of the last ten champions had played this event prior to winning. Of the eight players who had played the course before, five of those winners had recorded a top 15 finish in this event prior to winning.
Recent Form
Three of the past seven champions had missed the cut prior to winning here so it is possible to find your game here. That said, the four other champions had recorded a top 35 in their previous start.
World Ranking
We generally see better players prevail in this event. Four of the past five champions have ranked 26th or better when they teed off. Kevin Streelman (2014) was the last player to win from outside of the world's top 50 (he was 58th).
Nationality
Americans have won seven of the last 10 events here.
Correlating Courses
None of note.
Stats Analysis
SG: Off The Tee
The last five winners have ranked 83-25-9-102-25.
Driving Accuracy
The last five winners have ranked 87-9-138-72-47. In general, you don't need to be accurate off the tee.
Driving Distance
The last five winners have ranked 57-102-15-101-38. Distance is preferred to accuracy off the tee.
SG: Approach
The last five winners have ranked 7-1-29-9-5. Strong approach play is vital this week.
Greens In Regulation
The last five winners have ranked 23-11-9-57-8. Hitting greens is valued at TPC River Highlands.
SG: Around The Green
The last five winners have ranked 38-39-14-3-74 Players will miss greens this week, getting up and down is important.
SG: Putting
The last five winners have ranked 6-13-31-41-28. For a course that regularly yields low scores, a hot putter surprisingly hasn't been all that important.
In Play
Tough Holes
The 4th and 5th holes generally play as the hardest holes on the course.
Birdie Holes
The par 5's (6th and 13th) play as the easiest holes. The short par 4s, the 2nd and 15th, generally offer birdie opportunities too.
Closing Stretch
According to Stewart Cink, holes 15-18 offer "four of the most exciting finishing holes in a group anywhere in the world". The 15th is a driveable par 4 but the 16th and 17th are much harder and par is a good score.
Fast or Slow Start
A fast start in round one isn't essential. Dustin Johnson was 79th last year after the opening 18 holes and 2018 champion, Bubba Watson, wasn't much better in 77th.
Last year's champion, Dustin Johnson, was the only winner not to be inside the top 8 after round two in the past five years. He was 20th.
Four of the last five Travelers champions have been in the final pairing on Sunday. Bubba Watson won from 6th position in 2018.
In-play
The Travelers Championship In-Play Blog
27th June 2021, 9.15am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Watson | -10 |
| Hickock | -10 |
| Day | -9 |
| Smith | -9 |
| Henley | -9 |
Breezy conditions tested the players yesterday and scoring wasn't as low as we've seen in the past at TPC River Highlands. Round two leader Jason Day could only manage a level par 70 and his closest challenger Bubba Watson has overtaken him at 10 under par. It was Kramer Hickok who looked like having the sole lead but made bogey on his last two holes to join Watson as co-leader.
It’s hard to fancy Hickok after that finish and this really looks like a bit of a lottery from here. Cameron Smith and Russell Henley have joined the pack at 9 under and there are now 26 players within four shots of the lead.
Bryson DeChambeau and Dustin Johnson have recovered well from slow starts and are big dangers on 7 under par and Harris English will be confident after a great move to get to get to 8 under.
Our preview highlighted that the winner has come from the final pairing four of the last five events here which is good news for Watson and Hickok backers.
Watson is no stranger to winning on tour but hasn’t done so since 2018 – his longest dry spell since winning his first tour event in 2010. He has every chance but odds of 7/2 feel a tad short given the turbulent nature of the leaderboard and strength of the chasing pack. He missed two very short putts in his final three holes which didn't even touch the hole and that's enough to put us off.
We looked into Hickok’s chances on Friday’s blog (see below) and he’s not for us after seeing that nervy finish last night. Jason Day is still right in this despite stalling a bit yesterday but his back was clearly causing him discomfort yesterday and the last few holes were a painful watch, both for him and his backers. Like Watson, he’s not won since 2018 so we’re happy to pass him up at 10/1.
The momentum looks to be with Cameron Smith after his 66 yesterday and the 2020 Sony Open Champion looks the most likely to put pressure on the leaders. Odds of 15/2 are tempting but he’s had a few chances to win since Sony and not looked quite as clinical as he once was.
Russell Henley has three PGA Tour wins but is another who hasn’t won for some time. He looked rusty in contention at last week’s US Open and is too short to interest us.
We saw last week how quickly the cream rose to the top on the final day and we could see something similar today. DeChambeau, English and Johnson could make odds of 14/1 look fairly stupid with a fast start and it’s likely at least one is battling for the title on the back nine.
Round 4 Bet
- 2pts Win Only Harris English 14/1 @ Skybet
Harris has been playing well for a couple of weeks now, having finished 3rd last week at the US Open and 14th the week before at the Palmetto Championship. The 14th place finish at the Palmetto could have been a lot better had he not fired a final round 74 and we acknowledge that he didn't impress that day. However, he was impressive when winning the Sentry Tournament of Champions earlier this year and we're prepared to forgive him for that blip two weeks ago. With doubts over the leaders, we can see the winner coming from those chasing and Harris English is the value at 14/1.
26th June 2021, 1.15pm
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Day | -9 |
| Hickock | -8 |
| Watson | -8 |
| Seven Players Tied | -5 |
As expected there has been a lot of movement on the leaderboard on day two and Jason Day now leads by one over Bubba Watson and Kramer Hickok. The Australian fired eight birdies in a bogey free 62 and is now 8/1 to win from here.
Bubba Watson is the market favourite at 15/2 after consecutive 66's and the likes of Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau lurk a few shots back. Seven player are tied at 7 under par and it's very possible we have a different group of leaders again at the end of day two.
With it being as wide open as it is, we want to target the value a couple of shots off the pace.
Round 3 Bet
- 1pt Each Way K H Lee 40/1 @ Sport Nation/Marathon Bet (1/5 1-5)
Kyoung-Hoon Lee has been vastly understimated in the market and 40/1 is an extremely attractive price. He is a PGA tour winner as recently as last month at the Byron Nelson Classic and it was noted how well he performed in contention that week. We have no concerns over his ability to handle the pressure and if he can get himself in a good position at the end of today he has a great chance. We also know he likes the course after a 13th place finish in 2019.
25th June 2021, 10.15am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Kodaira | -7 |
| Hickock | -7 |
| Gooch | -6 |
| Five Players Tied | -5 |
We’re underway at River Highlands and the big boys have got off to a slow start. Bryson DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka trail by six and Dustin Johnson trails by seven.
We have a pair of surprising leaders in Satoshi Kodaira and Kramer Hickock. Kodaira has missed the cut in both attempts here previously although does arrive with consistent form figures of 19-13-11. He is a previous winner at the 2018 RBC Heritage so shouldn’t be dismissed but the value is gone now at 16/1.
Hickock arrives on the back of a missed cut at the Palmetto Championship but was 14th in his penultimate start at Charles Schwab. He has a best finish on tour of 8th but has won three times on the KFT and Canadian Tours. It would be big ask for him to win in a field like this and 25/1 is too short for us.
Talor Gooch is the closest challenger to the pair and arrives in extremely consistent form of 18-14-44-39-26 but he has missed 2/2 cuts here previously and we’re again happy to pass up the 18/1 available.
Two time champion Bubba Watson is rated the man to beat currently after a four under par opening round, followed by Patrick Cantlay who is two under par. Both seem very short at 12/1 and 14/1 respectively and we will look further down the odds for value.
Round 2 Bets
- 2pts Sam Burns Win Only 20/1 @ Skybet
With the leaderboard short of recent winners, we're keen to play Burns who has won as recently as a few weeks ago. He's got off to an excellent start despite playing his front nine in one over par. Five birdies coming home gives him great momentum for today and improving form at River Highlands of 43-24 signals a man who is ready to contend here. Sam is at his best on a scoreable course and expect the birdies to flow from here in.
- 1pt Each Way Zach Johnson 66/1 @ Skybet (1/4 1-5)
Zach is another that enjoys this golf course, finishing 11th and 19th in his last two attempts. He hit over 85% of fairways and greens yesterday and that sort of consistency will keep setting up birdie opportunities for him. He hasn't won in some time but the quality of the leaderboard means he is worth chancing and a realistic chance of an each way pay out. Like Burns, he is three shots back and nicely poised for round two.
