Preview

Course Info

TPC River Highlands has hosted this event since 1991.  It is a short, par 70, course with four par 3s and only two par 5s, the 6th and 13th.  The course was redesigned by Pete Dye in 1982 and underwent further changes in 1989 from Bobby Reed and PGA Tour Design Services Inc.

Be aware that the greens used to be Bentgrass and ran quite slow, but an overhaul several years ago saw Poa Annua introduced with the greens now notably faster.

According to Stewart Cink, holes 15-18 offer "four of the most exciting finishing holes in a group anywhere in the world".  The 15th is a driveable par 4 but the 16th and 17th are much harder and par is a good score.

The greens are smaller than average yet it remains a course that players can get after.  It's where Jim Furyk recorded the lowest round in PGA Tour history, shooting a 58 in 2016.  It is also the course where the lowest amateur round was recorded (Patrick Cantlay shot 60 in 2011). 

In the last 6 years the average winning score has been 15 under and the winning score hasn't been worse than 12 under.

This tournament is one of the few not to be affected by scheduling changes as a result of Coronavirus and it occupies its traditional June slot.  This is usually a highly attended event, ranking only behind the Waste Management Phoenix Open for spectator attendance on the PGA Tour.
 

Significant Info

Nick Watney became the first player to contract Covid-19 last week when competing at the RBC Heritage. No other players have tested positive but we should be alert to the possibility. This is particularly relevant given Justin Thomas described Hilton Head (the area hosting last weeks event) as being "like an absolute zoo".

Continue to exercise caution at the outset, especially in relation to those who haven't teed it up yet and keep a watching brief in play.

Trends

With one exception (Jordan Spieth in 2017), every winner in the last twenty years has played this event before.  However, there are more course debutants teeing it up this week after golf's hiatus. We should place less emphasis than normal on this particular trend.

Course form is weighted heavily, with a number of players recording multiple wins here (Bubba Watson, Phil Mickelson, Stewart Cink etc).  Some have recorded multiple top 10 finishes in a short time frame (Paul Casey, Bryson DeChambeau, Ryan Moore etc).

Left handers have a strong record at TPC River Highlands, with Bubba Watson being a three time winner, Phil Mickelson has won twice and Brian Harman recorded three top 8 finishes in the past five years.  However, as Mickelson pointed out last year, this probably has more to do with the aggressive style these guys have,
"That is the way Bubba likes to play and the way I've always liked to play. When you're on, this is a course that will allow you to make birdies. Doesn't matter if you're left-handed or right-handed."

Traditionally the Travelers is played the week after the US Open and the general rule is that contending at the US Open means you don't contend at the Travelers.  As an example, Brooks Koepka cited he was "mentally exhausted" before teeing off here last year (he went on to finish 57th).  We don't have to worry about that this year but don't be put off if a player you wish to back has recorded a bad finish in a year where they have challenged at a US Open.

Despite being low scoring affairs, the Travelers is generally won by Americans (only three other nationalities since 2000). Other than the last two years (Chez Reavie and Bubba Watson won by 4 and 3 respectively) it is generally a close contest. Eight ot the events prior to 2018 were won by a single stroke or a playoff.

Stats Analysis

Strokes Gained: Approach is the key stat we are looking for this week.  Given the fact players are firing at smaller than average greens. with pin positions often tucked away, accurate iron play is essential.  Three of the last four winners have each ranked inside the top 10 for Strokes Gained: Approach and with birdies required that's no surprise. 

It's also the key stat here given that the players with the best records (e.g. Watson, Mickelson, Spieth) are synonymous with The Masters, a course that also demands good Strokes Gained Approach stats.

​It goes without saying that a hot putter is also beneficial here. Players who are confident on the greens should be preferred.

In-Play

In general, 54-hole leaders don't have a great record here with only three of the last ten leaders hanging on.  Last year, Chez Reavie had a six shot lead but at one stage that was whittled down to a single shot before he pulled clear to win by four.  Notable others who have failed to convert in recent years include Paul Casey (having led by four) and Daniel Berger.

As mentioned above, the final four holes provide an exciting finish and leads can disappear quickly.   Don't be afraid to back players a few shots off the pace as there are multiple examples of players coming from 6+ shots back with a round to go here.

Six To Watch

Brooks Koepka - 20/1 @ William Hill
Last year Brooks described this as "one of my favourite events." He may have finished 57th last year but was on record as saying he was "mentally exhausted" and physically drained after contending in the US Open the week before. He's recorded a 9th place finish here in 2016 and a 19th place finish in 2018 despite having contended in Majors the week before.

Given that he's fresh and raring to go after a 7th place finish last week at the RBC Heritage, he'll likely be in the mix. The main concern is his putting on Poa Annua greens - but it hasn't stopped him winning two Majors on Poa!

​Dustin Johnson - 28/1 @ BetVictor
Dustin has little course form here to speak of, a pair of top 35 finishes being his best return in two completed starts (he withdrew on one occasion). It can often take him a few weeks to get going and he publicly stated he did not practice much over the break for Coronavirus.

However, he warmed up nicely last week at the RBC Heritage with a 17th place finish. He was let down by his putting as he ranked 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and 19th in Stokes Gained: Approach. A return to Poa Annua greens should see him putt better.

Marc Leishman - 50/1 @ Boylesports
Marc won here in 2012 and has recorded four top 25 finishes in his last six starts. He missed the cut at Colonial in his only start since the resumption of play, but our profile points out that Marc does not need to be playing well in order to pop up with a win or a high finish.

He made 11 birdies in his two rounds at Colonial, so he can make birdies around here - he just needs to reduce the errors.

Sergio Garcia - 50/1 @ William Hill
Sergio sprang back to form last week at the RBC Heritage, finishing 1st for SG: Tee to green and 2nd SG: Approach. Although his putting remains a concern, a change in the surface could help him.

He hasn't played River Highlands much recently so doesn't have notable course form. However, he is quoted as saying it reminds him of Sawgrass, where he has won and is worth a chance at 50/1.

Keegan Bradley - 125/1 @ Skybet
Keegan was runner-up last year and after a bit of digging we could have seen it coming. In his eight previous appearances he had never missed a cut, including a Top 10 in 2017.

This is his home tournament, as he said last year, "For me to be back here in New England, it's rejuvenating, so excited to be back. It's one of my favourite events, I love playing here". That runners-up spot followed 8 appearances without a Top 30 finish and this year he comes into the tournament in better shape.

A 32nd place finish at Charles Schwab with 13th SG: Putting (traditionally his weakness) was eye catching. If he can continue that putting with some improved ball striking he could contend.

Cameron Champ - 150/1 @ BetVictor
Cameron missed the cut here last year but entered the week in absolutely horrendous form. This time he starts on the back of an impressive 14th place finish at Charles Schwab where he finished 66-68 at the weekend.

Looking at his stats he was 19th SG: Tee to green and 22nd SG: Putting. A slight improvement on either category could lead to a good week. He was 3rd for driving distance which should be more of an advantage at River Highlands. This should be a course that suits.

In=play

In-Play Blog

28th June 2020
Todd -18
Johnson -16
Streelman -15
Hughes -14
Na -13
DeChambeau -13

It was an enjoyable moving day for GBC and our followers as Brendon Todd surged past the leaders on route to a 61 to take a two shot lead over Dustin Johnson. Not only did we advise backing him at 40/1 in the outight market, we also advised a bogey free round bet on him at 11/1 and he duly obliged. One of our other halfway selections, Kevin Streelman, sits in 3rd place 3 shots back so we are really well placed.

Brendon is a two time winner this season already but started the event unfancied following two missed cuts after the long break. It is not a complete shock to see him up there - as our profile indicates he is much better suited to low scoring events,

"Brendon’s wins in 2019 were won with scores of -24 and -20 under par, and his first win on the Korn ferry tour was won with -22 under par. He is well suited to birdie fests and can post some extremely low numbers so keep an eye out for him in events which require low winning scores."

He admits he is still "riding the confidence from the these two wins" and he was a fairway and greens machine yesterday so it might take a low round for him to be beaten. 

There is some hope for the field. however. The last time he took a 54 hole lead in the PGA Tour, at the RSM Classic, he shot a disappointing 72 to finish 4th, three off the lead. A similar performance would likely result in him being overtaken today.

His biggest threat is undoubtedly Johnson, who is almost the same price as him currently despite being two shots back. It looked like the Dustin of old yesterday but he has been average at best in contention recently, as can be seen from his player profile. However, if the same Dustin as yesterday turns up, Todd will need to be at his best to beat him.

Kevin Streelman is still right in this, and as advised yesterday his win in 2014 was courtesy of weekend 64s. He shot a 63 yesterday and if he were to post another 63 today it would ask a big question of the front two. Mackenzie Hughes sits 4 shots back and could play better today now the pressure is off him slightly. Bryson and Na remain a danger from 5 back but seem a bit short in the market.

Given our great position in the outright with Todd and Streelman, we are happy to let that play out without getting more involved. Todd has a 4 star rating in our Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Ratings, so he's very much the man we favour . However, we have spotted some value in another market (see below).

1pt Kyle Stanley Top 20 Finish - 10/3 @ Betfair Sportsbook

Kyle is in 12th place at -11, but really should be further up the leaderboard.  A slow start where he was one over par through 14 holes on day 1 meant that he's been unable to mount any sort of challenge. However, he fired consecutive 65's on Friday and Saturday. Even more impressively, he has hit over 85% fairways AND greens in regulation for both days.

In addition Kyle ranked 19th for round 4 performance in 2019 and it suits him to come from off the pace. There are a few questionable players in the mix ahead of him, so he rates a good chance of grabbing a top 10. Snap up the 10/3.

27th June 2020
Mickelson -13
Gordon -12
Hughes -12
McIlroy -9
Schauffele -9
Steele -9
Todd -9
Leishman 9

Despite bogeying his 2nd hole, 50 year old Phil Mickelson shot an afternoon 63 to take control of the Travelers Championship and he takes a one shot lead over outsiders Will Gordon and Mackenzie Hughes.

Rory Mcllroy and Xander Schauffele could only shot disappointing 68's and sit four shots back with Marc Leishman, Brendon Todd and Brendan Steele, who all made a nice moves. Eleven players, including much fancied Bryson DeChambeau and Abraham Ancer, sit at -8  with the likes of Dustin Johnson and Patrick Cantlay lurk at -7.

Phil's chances are very much going to depend on whether he can keep his driver behaving. His driving accuracy improved to 78.57% yesterday and if he can keep that up, he should rack up plenty more birdies as there aren't many better with a wedge in hand.

It's hard to fancy Mackenzie Hughes who struggled to follow his putting heroics on Thursday, and Will Gordon should also find it difficult to follow up yesterday's 62. Which Rory Mcllroy turns up today is anyone guess, but given that the leaders are there to be shot at we have identified three players who have the potential to get in the mix at big prices.

1pt Each Way 1/4 1,2,3,4 Brendon Todd  - 40/1 @ 888 Sport
0.5pts Each Way 1/5 1,2,3,5 Joaquin Niemann - 60/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook
1pt Each Way 1/5 1,2,3,5 Kevin Streelman - 66/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook
1pt Kevin Streelman Bogey Free Round - 9/1 @ Skybet
1pt Brendon Todd Bogey Free Round - 11/1 @ Skybet
2pts Marc Leishman to beat Kevin Na - 10/11 @ BoyleSports

Brendon Todd has gone about his business quietly but is only 4 off the lead. Taking a look at his stats it could be so much better. He ranks 2nd SG: Tee to green, 4th SG: Total and 1st for Driving Accuracy. Todd won twice at the end of 2019 so is very capable under pressure.

​Kevin Streelman is worth a play at 66/1 given his love for the course and stats over 36 holes. He is 3rd SG: Approach the green and his driving improved significantly yesterday, hitting 13/14 fairways. A previous winner at River Highlands, interestingly he fired weekend rounds of 64-64 for his win in 2014 so will take positive memories into this weekend.
Joaquin Niemman is 7 shots back but is also worth a small play at 66/1. He is ranked 1st for SG: tee to green and can see him making a similar weekend charge like he did at RBC  Heritage last week.

​It is an early start today due to some potential bad weather coming in so the players will tee off first thing local time. This should ensure receptive conditions, which means there might be value available on easier greens. We have chosen Todd and Streelman at odds of 11/1 and 9/1 for the ball striking reasons listed above. Todd has only recorded one bogey all week and Streelman has had one bogey each round, so only needs a small improvement to find a winner.

Marc has an excellent record at the Travelers and was one of our 'Six To Watch' in the event preview. Having improved his stats and score each day, he can be expected to go well again. He goes up against Kevin Na in a mythical match up at Boylesports, and whilst Kevin is normally one to be wary of in match bets, he is carrying a back injury at the moment. 
Today's tee times having been moved forward will not help. and he is off at 8.42am local time.  As he commented yesterday the morning causes him problems,

Q. Kevin, how would you assess your round out there today?
KEVIN NA: I played pretty good today. These early mornings are tough. You've got to wake up so early. But I putted pretty well. I hit some great shots in there.
Q. How has the back been since Colonial?
KEVIN NA: Yeah, I tweaked my back a week before Colonial, struggled at Colonial, and then I didn't play last week. It's still not great. This morning it was really stiff. It was tough. But afternoons are a little bit easier. I got a little more time to loosen up. The guys in the physio trailer have been very helpful. But it's a work in process.

26th June 2020

Hughes -10
McIlroy -7
Schauffele -7
Hovland -7
Thompson -6
Mickelson -6
Duncan -6
Garcia -6
Noh -6
Oosthuizen -6

In Round 1 the morning starters gained a significant advantage, dominating the round one leaderboard.  Only four of the top 16 started in the afternoon and nobody threatened Mackenzie Hughes's sparkling 60.  With similar conditions expected for Round 2 we should look for morning starters in any betting in the outright market.

Conditions are expected to get firmer throughout the tournament and it's unlikely we'll see anyone threaten a 59 as Hughes did yesterday.  Sergio Garcia said: "If the weather stays as good as it's been, which it's supposed to, this course is going to get firm if the Tour wants it to.
"The greens are going to get tricky. It's going to be tough to hit it close to some of these pins."

It was a good start for our pre-event bets as top 40 pick Chris Stroud rallied from being 3 over par through 7 to post a 66 and sit inside the top 20.  Marc Leishman and Sergio Garcia, two players from our preview watchlist, also played nicely sitting 17th and 5th respectively.  However, Peter Malnati had a day to forget and will likely miss the cut today.

1pt Each Way 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6 Louis Oosthuizen - 33/1 @ BoyleSports
2pts Zach Johnson to beat Russel Knox - 21/20 @ 888 Sport
2pts Charley Hoffman to beat Wyndham Clark - 21/20 @ 888 Sport

Louis has played poorly since play resumed after the Coronavirus break.  But he scored -6 in the trickier afternoon conditions yesterday despite a bogey at the driveable par 4 15th hole.  Crucially, he has an early tee time today which gives him the best opportunity to progress up the leaderboard.  Louis also has experience of playing well in firm and fast conditions, so the forecast for the rest of the week should suit him.

He also gave an encouraging quote yesterday which indicated he may have found something with his swing,
"I was very rusty coming back. Last week was probably as bad as I can hit it, and I was horrible on the greens, as well.
"I worked hard on Tuesday and Wednesday and found a few things that I remembered I did in January and February when I was playing decent."

​Back him at Boylesports as they are offering 6 places.

Charley has an extremely solid record at TPC River Highlands, having finished in the top 26 in six of his last seven starts.   He was solid off the tee yesterday and with some sharper iron play could have posted much better than -3.  He beat Wyndham by 4 shots yesterday and the 21/20 on offer for him to prevail again in a 2 ball bet is worth taking. 
​Wyndham was poor off the tee yesterday and only hit 6 fairways.  With the greens firming up, playing from the short grass will be essential.  For comparison, the same bet is only 5/6 with Spreadex.

Russell is on a particularly poor run of form, having missed both cuts since play resumed after the break.  He had another disappointing day yesterday as he ranked negatively in almost every Strokes Gained category, shooting +4.  In contrast, Zach was solid tee to green and it was only his scrambling which prevented him from scoring a couple of shots lower.  Zach won this match by 6 shots yesterday and at a shade over evens it's a good bet again today.