Event Info
Starts: 22nd October 2020
Course: Sherwood Country Club, Thousand Oaks, California
Par: 72
Length: 7,073 yards
2019 Champion: Tiger Woods (Different Course)
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -4pts
Pre-Event Six to Watch
T72nd Tiger Woods - 33/1 @ Skybet
DNS Adam Scott - 45/1 @Bet365
T76th Phil Mickelson - 70/1 @ Bet365
T11th Lanto Griffin - 110/1 @Betfred
T8th Cameron Champ - 140/1 @ Bet365
T57th Richy Werenski - 350/1 @ 888Sport
In-Play Bets: -4pts
23 October 2020 ( Zero Points)
1pt Each Way Scottie Scheffler (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - 30/1 @ William Hill
1pt Each Way Cameron Smith (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 50/1 @Bet365
1pt Each Way Dylan Frittelli (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 80/1 @ Bet365
24 October 2020 ( -4 Points)
1pt Each Way Kevin Kisner (1/5 1,2,3,4) - 50/1 @ 10Bet
1pt Each Way Richy Weresnki (1/5 1,2,3,4) - 150/1 @ Bet365
Preview
Course Info
Course Designer: Jack Nicklaus
Tournament played here since: New Course (although course was used for the Hero World Challenge between 2000-2013)
Type of Course: Short and quirky layout
Fairways: Reasonably generous but strategic bunkering, water hazards and elevation changes to challenge players
Greens: Slightly larger than average Bentgrass greens running 13 on Stimpmeter.
Par 5's: 2nd, 5th, 11th, 13th and 16th
Water Hazards: In play on 8 of the holes.
Premium on: Approach play
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
The field is only 78 this week with no halfway cut.
Be aware that this course was used between 2000-2013 for the Hero World Challenge. However, since then Jack Nicklaus has altered things with the addition of 1,200 oak trees and the Bermuda grass has been changed to Bentgrass.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals. Pre-tournament favourite Dustin Johnson has already withdrawn following a positive test last week.
Trends
Winning Score
Winning scores at Sherwood when it hosted the Hero World Challenge ranged from -10 to -22. With light winds expected this week we can expect the winning score to be at the lower end of this spectrum.
Course Form
Seven of the last eight champions at the Hero World Challenge had posted a win or runner up finish at Sherwood prior to winning. Course form cannot be underestimated here.
Recent Form
Four of the last five champions at Sherwood CC had posted a top 10 finish in their previous two starts. All five of the previous champions had posted a top 20 finish in their last two starts. Recent form is important.
Stats Analysis
No stats are available from the years the course hosted the Hero World Challenge. However, it is clear that players who have shown ability to plot the ball around here have done well.
In Play
Tough Holes
The 4th, 8th and 14th are difficult holes
Birdie Holes
The 1st hole is a short par 4 with some players being able to get close to the green. The five par 5s will also offer plenty of birdies.
Fast or Slow Start
N/A
Six To Watch
Tiger Woods - 33/1 @ Skybet
Sherwood Country Club takes a bit of getting used to and only Matt Wolff (who grew up seven miles from Sherwood) can lay claim to having played more rounds here than Tiger. The GOAT won the Hero Challenge five times at Sherwood and even though he's shown little in the way of form this year, we like him to go well. With Augusta around the corner, Tiger will be keen to put some good scores on the board and we saw him win the Zozo last year having been well off form.
Adam Scott - 45/1 @Bet365
Scotty's light schedule often sees him go under the radar with the bookies. Ignore their dismissive assessment as there are reasons to like him this week. He won in California at the Genesis at the beginning of the year and he was runner up at at the The Memorial in 2019, on a Nicklaus design. The 'big' Australian events have been cancelled this winter so Adam may be placing extra emphasis on the tournaments he does enter between now and Christmas. He's ranked 15th in the world but 20th in the betting this week despite DJ and Bryson missing, that's an anomaly.
Phil Mickelson - 70/1 @ Bet365
Phil won on the Champions Tour last week to make it two wins from two appearances on that Tour. Virginia Country Club, scene of his win last week, played only 50 yards shorter than Sherwood so we shouldn't dismiss Phil's effort last week. Sherwood places a premium on wedge play and we think Phil has the potential to go well this week. He's a California specialist, having won a dozen times in the State and he'll be keen to maintain momentum with The Masters a few weeks away.
Lanto Griffin - 110/1 @Betfred
Lanto comes off of a great week at the CJ Cup where he ranked 6th SG: Approach and 14th in Driving Accuracy. We've seen recent form count for a lot with previous winners here so it's worth considering Lanto further. He's a player who can stay hot, having posted seven consecutive top 20 finishes late last season having earlier posted five consecutive top 22 finishes that same season. In a 78 man field he's worth chancing.
Cameron Champ - 140/1 @ Bet365
California native Champ had a mixed week last week with two good rounds under 70 and two rounds of 74. Convention dictates that a shorter, more accurate player generally prevails at Sherwood but Dustin Johnson holds the course record with a 61 so it is possible to go low around here based on length off the tee. Champ has three wins in the last two years and both PGA Tour victories came September/October. He was 2nd for SG: Off the tee last season and ranked 2nd SG: Approach last week at Shadow Creek. If he can somehow combine the two, he'll be a challenger.
Richy Werenski - 350/1 @ 888Sport
Richy won earlier this season at the Barracuda Championship and odds of 350/1 appear a little too generous. He bounced back well last week from an opening 74 to shoot seven under par for his final three rounds. In doing so he ranked 10th SG: Approach. A fine putter, he ranked 21st SG: Putting last season and 15th last week. He went off the boil a little after his win but he looks primed for a good week.
In-play
In-Play Blog
25th October 2020
-19 Thomas
-18 Rahm
-17 Griffin
-16 Cantlay
-16 Palmer
-16 Munoz
JT leads by one shot going into the final round and edges Jon Rahm for favouritism. JT had several lucky breaks off the tee yesterday and if he drives like that again, it's unlikely he'll win. He's led 13 times with a round to go and converted eight of those, but we don't think the 13/8 on offer is particularly favourable given Rahm is leading the chasers. Both players have 4⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Ratings but Rahm has the momentum and of the two, we favour Rahm.
With all that said, we've seen a 61 already, there's every chance someone surges from behind and pips them both. We are certainly hoping so with a couple of picks in the chasing pack. Lanto Griffin (110/1) occupies solo third place with 80/1 Dylan Frittelli and 30/1 Scottie Scheffler tucked in at -15 (tied 7th).
We might see a little more breeze for the final round but winds are not forecast above 12mph so birdies should still be plentiful.
We're content to let things play out with interest in the three players mentioned above but we wouldn't put anyone off a bet on Rahm if they wanted to get involved.
24th October 2020
-14 Thomas
-13 Griffin
-13 Frittelli
-12 Cantlay
-12 Scheffler
JT was five under through the first 7 holes yesterday and at one point looked like he was going to run away with things. Thankfully he slowed down and only takes a one shot lead into the 3rd round. Strong favourite at 5/2, he's to be respected given his 4⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating. However, we saw a new course record yesterday from Richy Werenski and with that type of scoring taking place, the event is very much to play for even if JT plays well over the final 36 holes.
We might see a little more breeze for the 3rd round but winds are not forecast above 10mph so birdies should still be plentiful.
Those of you who have backed our Six To Watch and yesterday's in-play tips are in a strong position as 110/1 Lanto Griffin and 80/1 Dylan Frittelli sit 2nd, 30/1 Scottie Scheffler is in 4th and 350/1 Richy Werenski sits 6th. With birdies expected again today and players expected to move up the leaderboard, we have a couple of bets ahead of the 3rd round.
1pt Each Way Kevin Kisner (1/5 1,2,3,4) - 50/1 @ 10Bet
1pt Each Way Richy Weresnki (1/5 1,2,3,4) - 150/1 @ Bet365
Kevin is nursing an ankle injury this week from a fall when doing box jumps in the gym. However, that hasn't held him back so far and the old adage, "beware of the injured golfer," appears to be particularly relevant to Kevin this week. Ranking 3rd for SG: Approach and 12th for SG: Putting, he has the combination we are looking for. The short course at Sherwood plays perfectly to his strengths and he's value at 50/1.
We identified Richy as one of our Six To Watch at the start of the week and we feel he's still being underrated by the bookies. He got his maiden PGA Tour win at the Barracuda earlier this season and he'll be keen to add another title to his resume. He was 10th SG: Approach last week and he's 21st SG: Approach so far this week, so we're happy with his ability to set up birdie chances. He's a brilliant putter and with birdies the name of the game, he's too big with 36 holes to go.
23rd October 2020
-8 Munoz
-7 Thomas
-7 Hatton
-6 Five players tied.
Sebastian Munoz has the first round lead after a 64 which contained two eagles and a double bogey but it is Justin Thomas who heads the market as 9/2 favourite after playing his last three holes in 4 under par. It was a run that possibly changes the whole complexion of the tournament and if he continues to drive like he did yesterday (92% of fairways and 2nd SG: Off the tee), he will be the man to beat this week.
Hatton is the only other player being offered at single figure odds, and the quality of his game these last few weeks undeniably makes him a threat. The danger is he also shot an opening 65 and ran out of steam last week with a 73 on Saturday so it is possible the same will happen again.
With 38 players within five shots, it is still incredibly difficult to call at this stage and we should have a much clearer picture at halfway. However, we should take advantage of the five each way places still on offer and we have selected three players we believe are the value currently.
1pt Each Way Scottie Scheffler (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - 30/1 @ William Hill
1pt Each Way Cameron Smith (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 50/1 @Bet365
1pt Each Way Dylan Frittelli (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 80/1 @ Bet365
We will take advantage of Hills offering 1/4 odds for a an each way finish and select Scheffler who played his last 5 holes in -5 yesterday. No one drove the ball better than him, ranking 1st SG: Off the tee and he was also 3rd SG: Tee to green. If the putter can heat up next few days he will have a good chance of contending. Scottie has shown before he can go very low when a course offers birdie opportunities.
We will get the young Australian onside now after an opening 67. We saw similar form Jason Kokrak before winning last week and no one will be able to argue the signs weren't there with finishes of 38-24-11 in his last three starts. Stats were extremely solid yesterday; 15th SG: Off the tee, 21st SG: Approach the green and 9th SG: Putting. Lets not forget Smith has already won this year at Sony, interestingly he was five off the lead after round 1 then.
Dylan is often a difficult player to get right and can frustrate, but is worth chancing at 80/1. The impressive nature of his victory at John Deere marked him down as one to keep onside in play after a strong start. He also played later months of 2019 very well with finishes of 6th and 7th at Sanderson Farm and Safeway Open so we know he likes this time of year.
