The Puerto Rico Open 2022

Preview

Event Info

Starts: 3rd March 2022
Course: Grand Reserve GC, Puerto Rico
Par: 72
Length: 7,506
2021 Champion: Branden Grace

Course Info

Designer: Tom Kite
Hosted since: 2008
Course type: Coastal
Fairways: Wide
Rough: Minimal (2 inches)
Greens: Paspalum, 11 on the Stimp
Water Hazards: Nine holes
Par 5's: 2nd, 5th, 15th and 18th
Premium on: Greens in Regulation

Significant Info

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.

Weather

Available week of the tournament.

Thursday:
Friday:
Saturday:
Sunday:

Trends

Winning Score
2015 and 2016 were -7 and -12, but the last four events have been between -15 and -20.

World Ranking
World Ranking of recent winners has been 147-100-285-626-103-285-92-291 (most recent first)

Correlating Courses
Look at other coastal events like the Mayakoba Classic, Bermuda Championship and the Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship.

Course Form
Five of the last seven winners were course debutants so course experience isn't important. However, since 2010, every winner who wasn't a debutant had previously posted a top 13 finish prior to winning.

Recent Form
Look for results at Pebble Beach, seven of the last eight winners had made the cut at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am earlier that year.

Nationality
Since this became a PGA Tour event in 2008, we have had 10 winners from the USA, two from Europe and one South African.

Stats Analysis

There are no Strokes Gained statistics at the Puerto Rico Open so we revert to traditional stats.

Driving Accuracy
The last five winners have ranked 56-23-62-1-22.

Driving Distance
The last five winners have ranked 49-16-11-81-6. Distance an advantage but not essential.

Greens in Regulation
The last five winners have ranked 3-8-4-1-14. Hitting Greens is the key to success.

Putts Per GIR
The last five winners have ranked 29-3-3-11-54. An ability to putt Paspalum greens is beneficial.

In-Play

Tough Holes
The 1st and 14th have ranked inside the top three hardest holes in each of the last two years.

Birdie Holes
The 2nd, 5th and 18th play as the easiest.

Closing Stretch
The 17th and 18th offer birdie opportunities, ranking stroke index 15 and 16 last year.

Fast or Slow Start
The last four winners have all been within 5 shots after round 1 one. Three of the last four have been within four.

In-play

In-Play Blog

6 March 2022, 8:15am (UK time)

Player	Total
Brehm	-15
M Kim	-12
Ramey	-11
Novak	-11
Gainey	-11
McGreevy	-11

Ryan Brehm has retained his lead in Puerto Rico and now holds a three shot lead going into the final round.

The American is now a general 10/11 to win his first PGA Tour title. He's a two time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour but it's been two years since his win and he's played some very average golf in that time. We remain happy to oppose him.

Our 2nd and 3rd round in-play tip, Michael Kim, is in 2nd place and we're looking for him to apply some pressure to Brehm. Kim is now a 9/1 shot and has every chance of adding a 2nd PGA Tour title.

There are four players in the group at 11 under par and they'll be looking to capitalise on any slip up from the leader.

We could see some weather disruption in round 4 with thunderstorms forecast.

Round 4 Bet

No bet

We've got interest going into the final round with Brandon Wu and Michael Kim so we're happy to let those bets run.

+ - Round 3 Bets Click to collapse

5 March 2022, 0:15am (UK time)

Player	Total
Brehm	-11
M Kim	-10
Kodaira	-10
McGreevy	-10
Tarren	-9
Eight players tied	-8

Ryan Brehm has taken over at the top in Puerto Rico and holds a one shot lead going into the weekend.

Brehm is now the 72 favourite and like Chase Seiffert yesterday, the price feels incredibly short. He is a two time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour but the last of those wins came in July 2019. Furthermore, he's only managed a solitary top 10 finish in the past two years, albeit that did come two starts ago.

In the American's favour is the fact two of the last four leaders at halfway have gone on to win. However, with a bit of wind around over the weekend and a dozen players within three of the lead, he's not for us.

So, if not Brehm then who?

Yesterday's in-play tip, Michael Kim, posted a solid round of 69 to remain in the hunt and it was interesting that he spoke post-round about how his confidence was even higher than it was when he won the John Deere Classic in 2019. At 14/1, it's tempting to top up on him.

Satoshi Kodaira is another player who was positive about the state of his game post-round. He too has won on the PGA Tour and he's the 13/2 2nd favourite. He's a fair price in our opinion.

The other player on ten under par is Max McGreevy (17/2). The 26 year old American has won on the Korn Ferry Tour and in China and it was notable he mentioned how he's now becoming comfortable on the PGA Tour. It's worth mentioning that his Korn Ferry Tour win came at the Price Cutter Charity Championship, the same event won by Martin Trainer in 2018 before he went on to win the 2019 Puerto Rico Open.

The breeze will continue to blow with a max wind of 15mph in the afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible. It's also worth mentioning that winds of 17mph are forecast for Sunday so the players could well be tested.

Round 3 Bet

1pt Each Way Michael Kim 14/1 @ General (1/5 1-4)

Michael was our pick yesterday and we can't help but feel the 14/1 on offer remains too big with 36 holes to go. We're happy to top up at the price on offer given his confidence and comfort in the wind. He stated post round that he was "super comfortable with where the wind's at. Supposed to be the same wind throughout the weekend. Yeah, if I can execute the game plan, we'll be all right." Let's not forget his 2019 win at the John Deere came out of the blue and he won by 8 shots!

+ - Round 2 Bets Click to collapse

4 March 2022, 6:45am (UK time)

Player	Total
Seiffert	-7
M Kim	-7
Brehm	-6
Aphibarnrat	-5
Baddeley	-5
Eight players tied	-4

Chase Seiffert and Michael Kim share the lead after the opening round of the Puerto Rico Open.

Seiffert finds himself as 6/1 favourite and that's a little on the short side for us. He's yet to win as a professional and his best efforts on the PGA Tour have largely come from off the pace on a Sunday. He'll play in the windier afternoon conditions today and that's enough to put us off him.

Kim won the 2018 John Deere Classic in emphatic fashion but has gone off the boil ever since. He's failed to record a single top 10 finish since that win in July 2018 and that's reflected in his odds of 25/1. However, he led that event from the 2nd round onwards so he does know how to win from the front.

Behind Seiffert in the betting are a group of players priced up at 16/1. Peter Uihlein, Ryan Brehm and Rafa Cabrera Bello are all rated as a 16/1 chance to win from here having got off to promising starts.

The last four winners of this event have all been inside the top 20 after the opening round. However, none of the round one leaders have gone on to win in that timeframe.

Weather for round 2 will be much the same as round 1, sunny with a max wind of 15mph in the afternoon.

Round 2 Bet

1pt Each Way Michael Kim 25/1 @ General (1/4 1-4)

It's not often we back one of the leaders after round 1 but Michael has a morning tee time for round 2 and given his past record of winning from the front, we're happy to take a chance on him at 25/1. He's shown signs of life this year having recorded a couple of top 30 finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour and his game might just be better than the odds suggest.

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