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2023 Players Championship Tips
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Event Info
Starts: 9th March 2023
Course: TPC Sawgrass, Florida
Par: 72
Length: 7,189 yards
2022 Champion: Cameron Smith
Course Info
Designer: Pete Dye
Used Since: 1982
Type of Course: Parkland
Fairways: Average width
Rough: Medium (2.5 inches)
Greens: Tifeagle Bermuda (13 Stimp)
Water Hazards: On every hole
Par 5's: 2nd, 9th, 11th and 16th
Premium on: All round game
Significant Info
The event was played in May between 2007 and 2018. The course played slightly differently in May as the weather was slightly better and the ball flew further in the slightly warmer conditions.
Weather
A slight draw bias for the Late-Early starters at TPC Sawgrass 2023.
Thursday
Partly Sunny. Wind 9mph morning, 7mph afternoon.
Friday
Cloudy. Wind 7mph morning, 9mph afternoon.
Saturday
Partly Sunny. Wind 4mph.
Sunday
Sunny. Wind 5mph.
Trends
Winning Score
Cameron Smith won with -13 whilst 2021 saw Justin Thomas win with -16. In 2019 the winning score was -19. In the ten years before that, scores ranged from -10 to -18.
Debutants
37 of the 39 winners at TPC Sawgrass had played in at least one previous Players Championship. The two that hadn't? Hal Sutton in 1983 and Craig Perks in 2002.
Course Experience
15 of the last 16 winners had made three or more starts at The Players Championship before winning. The only player who hadn't? Si Woo Kim.
Course Form
Each of the past TEN champions have posted a top 25 here prior to winning. Incidentally, five of those ten had posted a top 6 finish.
Played The Year Before
We're looking for someone who played in this event last year as the past 14 Players Championship winners played the event the year before winning. Twelve of those fourteen made the cut. Rory McIlroy and Jason Day were the only two winners to miss the cut the year prior to winning.
Wins on PGA Tour
Ten of the past eleven winners had won an event on the PGA Tour before winning the Players Championship. Martin Kaymer was the only Players Championship winner in those years who hadn't won on the PGA Tour before but he was an accomplished winner on the European Tour.
Draw Bias
Twelve of the past fourteen winners have had an early tee time in round one, this includes the last SEVEN winners.
Recent Form
Ten of the last Eleven champions had posted a top 22 finish on their last start before winning. Cameron Smith was 33rd before his win in 2022 but had already won earlier in the year and was 4th in second last start. Form counts for a lot so factor that into your Players Championship picks.
Major Performance
14 of the past 15 winners of the Players had recorded a top three finish in a Major prior to winning. The odd one out? Si Woo Kim again!
World Ranking
The last ten winners have had world rankings of 10-3-6-41-73-1-13-61-1-16 prior to winning. We are looking for a player inside the world's top 75 when making Players Championship selections.
Correlating Courses
Consider events which use Pete Dye designed courses such as the RBC Heritage and Travellers Championship.
Nationality
Five of the last ten winners have been American.
Stats Analysis
In most categories we only have Strokes Gained stats for the last five tournaments. In general, we are looking for players who have strong SG: Approach. 2021 winner Justin Thomas ranked 1st tee to green whilst Cameron Smith won with a combination of strong iron play and putting.
SG: Off The Tee
The last five winners have ranked 74-10-3-49-2. Smith showed top driving isn't essential to win here.
Driving Distance
The past seven champions have ranked 25-33-6-139-32-3-22. A real mixed bag and not a key to success here.
Driving Accuracy
The past seven champions have ranked 75-62-78-2-27-84-71. Accuracy off the tee is only important for the shorter hitting players.
SG: Approach
The last five winners have ranked 5-5-7-92-21. SG: Approach is preferred.
SG: Around The Green
The last five winners have ranked 20-12-39-5-4. A tidy short game is a big help around Sawgrass.
SG: Putting
The last seven winners have ranked 1-42-59-1-59-9-30. Tee to green is preferred usually.
In Play Golf Betting Advice
Tough Holes
The 5th, 8th, 18th and 14th were the four hardest holes on the course.
Birdie Holes
The par 4 12th hole played as he easiest hole with the four par 5s playing as the next easiest.
Closing Stretch
Water lurks on the three closing holes. The par five 16th offers birdie opportunities. The 17th and 18th are both treacherous and players are happy with pars on both holes.
Fast or Slow Start
A fast start is usually vital at Sawgrass. Seven of the past eight champions have shot an opening round in the 60s and all but three of those six sat inside the top 7 after round one. It is also notable that two of the last eight winners have been first round leaders. It should be noted though, Justin Thomas was SEVEN shots back at halfway in 2021.
TPC Sawgrass 2021 Course Notes
Course Condition
The course played hardest on day one, with the organisers watering the greens to make them less firm following day one. The 17th green was extremely hard and we saw a lot of balls in the water, particularly on day one. The green had been replaced the year before and was firmer than the rest of the greens.
Draw Bias
Players who played early-late had the better of the draw, both from course setup and wind (the wind was less on Friday afternoon than Thursday afternoon). Justin Thomas's win means the last six winners have had an early tee time on Thursday.
TPC Sawgrass 2022 Course Notes
Course Condition
There were significant weather interruptions. Day one saw a soft golf course with little breeze whilst the wind picked up considerably on the Friday.
Draw Bias
There was a significant draw bias once again with the top ten players at the halfway stage all playing in the AM-PM side of the draw. Cameron Smith's victory was the seventh straight win for a player who started early on Thursday.
Previous Players Championship Tips & Blogs
You can access our historical Players Championship tips using the links below:
2022
2021
2023 Players Championship Tips
You can sign up for all our Players Championship tips for TPC Sawgrass 2023 by clicking the button below.
In-play
2023 Players Championship In-Play Blog
12th March 2023, 7:25am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Scheffler |
-14 |
| M W Lee |
-12 |
| Davis |
-10 |
| Fleetwood |
-9 |
| Rai |
-9 |
| Ramey |
-9 |
| Bezuidenhout |
-9 |
2023 Players Championship Round 3 Summary
Benign conditions and soft greens saw players go low in round three of The Players Championship. Scottie Scheffler fired a 65 to open up a two stroke lead at the top of the leaderboard and Tom Hoge broke the tournament low score for 18 holes, firing a round of 62.
Notable Round 3 Players Championship Round 3 Quotes
"I played really good today. I got off to a nice start, which is always good. Kept it rolling from there, gave myself a lot of looks. Good finish as well. So overall very solid day, only one bogey, which is really good around this golf course. Thoughts about tomorrow, I think the conditions are going to be pretty tough. From what I saw, it's going to be pretty gusty winds tomorrow in the afternoon, so it should be a good challenge." Scottie Scheffler
" I'm playing really solid. Other than last week, I've had a really good stretch of golf and feel confident as ever. Hitting the right shots and swinging it good, and it's nice when the ball listens to you." Min Woo Lee
2023 Players Championship Round 4 Weather
Mostly sunny all day. The wind is expected to peak at 15mph. Conditions are expected to be be tougher than round three.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Scottie Scheffler took control in round three and he is the 2/5 favourite heading into the final round. The world number two heads up the SG: Tee to Green stats this week and will go on to claim his 2nd PGA Tour title in his last four starts if he continues that level of play.
Scheffler converted a 54 hole lead last month at the Phoenix Open but it should be remembered that he let a winning opportunity slip last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and also threw away a six shot lead at last year's Tour Championship when looking in control. His Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating is set at ⭐⭐⭐ and this may not be the formality that everyone expects.
Min Woo Lee holed out for eagle on his opening hole and made over 100ft of putts on his way to a Saturday 66. He is Scheffler's main competition but we would certainly prefer slightly bigger than the 6/1 available. Lee was brilliant on the greens yesterday and he'll need to continue that hot streak with the putter today to have any chance.
The bookies very much see this as a two horse race and that is reflected in the odds of Cam Davis (25/1) and Tommy Fleetwood (28/1). Both players are capable of low final rounds and are certainly in with a shout of an each way place.
Where is the value?
The last four Players Championship winners have all been inside the top six going into the final round and three of those four were inside the top three after 54 holes. Given Scheffler's impressive stats tee to green this week, we don't see anyone further back than -9 having a chance. Weather conditions look to be breezier than yesterday but not sufficiently breezy to bring the -8s into the equation.
Round 4 Bets
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11th March 2023, 8:25am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Bezuidenhout (thru 14) |
-8 |
| Svensson (thru 11) |
-8 |
| Griffin |
-6 |
| M W Lee (thru 15) |
-6 |
| Morikawa (thru 11) |
-6 |
| Pendrith (thru 13) |
-5 |
| Scheffler (thru 10) |
-5 |
2023 Players Championship Round 2 Summary
Yesterday's third favourite, Jon Rahm, withdrew before the start of the round after suffering a stomach illness. Conditions were breezy throughout the day, with the afternoon starters having to come off the course in the midst of their second round due to inclement weather. Six of the top seven on the leaderboard have played in the AM-PM half of the draw and it's odds on we see an eighth consecutive winner of this event who had a Thursday morning tee time.
Notable Round 2 Players Championship Round 2 Quotes
"We got pretty lucky today. I think our wave, there was a few holes where it was definitely swirly and a lot of wind. For the most part, I think we got some good winds compared to the other wave. It was out there to take advantage, I think. I just wasn't able to do that." Collin Morikawa
"I think it was playing pretty challenging when we started out with the high winds and the greens were getting really firm. I did a good job of staying patient. I wasn't swinging my best, but I made two nice birdies toward the end of the round and then obviously the delay will hurt a little, but start back up in the morning." Scottie Scheffler
"I feel good. I've been playing pretty solid. I haven't made very many bogeys. I'm just super relaxed and enjoying the golf course." Adam Svensson
2023 Players Championship Round 3 Weather
Mostly sunny all day. The wind is expected to blow consistently around 10mph with gusts of up to 15mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Scottie Scheffler has a 16ft eagle putt on the 11th hole when play resumes and for that reason he is chalked up as the 5/2 favourite. Despite ranking 4th SG: Tee to Green, Scheffler doesn't seem to be happy with his swing this week and it's notable he has commented on how he hasn't swung it how he would like to in each of the past two days. There is plenty of golf left in this event yet and we're in no rush to back the world number two.
In complete contrast to Scheffler, Collin Morikawa couldn't be happier with where his game is at right now. A slow start to round two has dropped him to second favourite (11/2) but he remains in confident mood. He may be the biggest beneficiary of the break in play yesterday.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Adam Svensson can be backed at 9/1 and 11/1 respectively. Both are playing well and are respected. Both players have demonstrated in the past they can compete in tough conditions and it would be no surprise to see them run the favourites close over the weekend.
Where is the value?
The last two winners of The Players Championship were outside the top 10 at the halfway stage so don't be discouraged if your selection is further down the leaderboard. Our 50/1 pre-event selection, Jason Day, is playing some excellent golf this week and were it not for holes 7 and 16 (he is +6 on those holes for the opening two rounds) he would be right in contention. Those of you who aren't on the Australian may look to get him onside over the weekend.
Round 3 Bets
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10th March 2023, 8:25am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Ramey |
-8 |
| Morikawa |
-7 |
| Pendrith |
-5 |
| Griffin |
-5 |
| Suh (thru 15) |
-5 |
| Six players tied |
-4 |
2023 Players Championship Round 1 Summary
Chad Ramey leads the way on his Players Championship debut after a bogey free round of 64. Players had ideal conditions for most of the day, the breeze picking up ever so slightly in the afternoon. Round 1 has yet to be completed with several players unable to finish due to darkness.
Notable Round 1 Players Championship Round 1 Quotes
"Last week was a weird one. Just had a two-way miss. It's tough. The swing's feeling good and I put in a lot of work this weekend and Monday through Wednesday to make sure I had that cut. I have a Stealth 2 driver that's actually -- it probably goes farther and it actually does what I want, I just haven't put it in play yet. It was something that we built earlier this week. Just to know where my misses would be, even though I missed a few left, I just know once I hit it off the face, I know where the misses are going to be. It's nice to have something trusty. But I just didn't have time to test my other one enough, especially after kind of having the misses on the last week." Collin Morikawa
"The rough was very thick. I think it's not crazy, crazy long. I'm sure we'll see longer stuff at maybe the U.S. Open. It may have even been longer last week, but this week I would say is as healthy as I've seen. You have a little bit of Bermuda in there, and then with the overseed it's extremely thick." Scottie Scheffler
"I would say it was really good for the game that I had today. I drove it pretty well. Other than that, I did not hit my irons very good. Just kind of battled and kind of kept the ball in front of me and hit some good chips around some greens, and just kind of put together a decent round. But I didn't feel like I had my best stuff today. It feels good to shoot that score." Sam Burns
2023 Players Championship Round 2 Weather
Mostly sunny all day. The wind is expected to peak at 12mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Collin Morikawa is 7/2 favourite. Having failed to break 70 in five of his six rounds at TPC Sawgrass, Morikawa was mightily impressive in putting together his opening round of 65. He led the SG: Tee to Green stats, his trademark strong approach play powering that ranking. Morikawa can certainly win from this position but we don't see the need to back him just yet.
World number two, Scottie Scheffler, can be backed at a general 5/1. Scheffler indicated he was happy with how he played in his post round interview and that was certainly reflected in the stats, with the American ranking 4th SG: Tee to Green. He too is capable of winning this event but the price is no more than fair in our opinion.
Morikawa and Scheffler are the only two players priced up in single figures with Jon Rahm next in the betting at 14/1. Rahm was 7th SG: Tee to Green in the opening round but he was poor on the greens, particularly on his back nine. A total of 18ft of putts holed on his inward nine indicates just how bad he was.
Where is the value?
The last two winners of The Players Championship have found themselves in 15th and 26th position after the opening round. Chad Ramey and Collin Morikawa aside, the lead is five under par and this tournament remains wide open in terms of potential winners. We're looking further down the leaderboard at players who could make a move in round two.
Round 2 Bets
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