The Memorial Tournament 2022

Event Info

Starts: 2nd June 2022
Course: Muirfield Village GC
Par: 72
Length: 7,543 yards
2020 Champion: Patrick Cantlay

Preview
In-play

Preview

Course Info

Designer: Nicklaus
Used Since: 1976
Fairways: Bentgrass
Greens: Bentgrass.
Water Hazards: In-play on 6 holes.
Par 5's: 5th, 7th, 11th and 15th
Premium on: Approach play

Significant Info

There have been significant changes to the course since 2020, greens have been resurfaced, trees added and bunkers rebuilt.

Be aware that two tournaments were played at this course in 2020 - The Workday Charity Open and The Memorial Tournament. The course conditions for the 2020 Memorial were markedly different to previous years.

Jon Rahm was SIX shots clear of 2nd place last year when he had to withdraw with Covid.

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.

Weather

Thunderstorms forecast Wednesday evening and showers expected early Thursday which could soften the course. Should be dry Friday onwards with temperatures in the late 60's.

Thursday
Am Showers, max winds 9mph.
Friday
Mostly sunny, max winds 7mph.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, max winds 6mph.
Sunday
Partly Cloudy, max winds 9mph.

Trends

Winning Score
Cantlay won last year with -13 although Rahm was -18 through 54 holes before withdrawing with Covid. Jon Rahm won in 2020 with a winning score of -9. However, we can discount that somewhat given the course was setup firm and fast owing to the fact it was being completely renovated following the tournament. The seven events held prior to Rahm's win at this course produced winning scores between -13 and -19.

Interestingly, there have been five playoffs in the last eight events held at Muirfield Village. No player has won by a margin greater than 3 shots since 2004 (Ernie Els).

Course Form
Muirfield Village isn't a course that favours debutants given there have only been two players in the past 13 events held here who won on their debut.

Of the eleven winners who had played here before, all bar one had previously recorded a top 40 finish. Seven had posted a top 20 before winning.

Recent Form
The last three winners - Patrick Cantlay (2019), Jon Rahm (2020) and Patrick Cantlay (2021) - posted top 30 finishes the start before they won. We would expect this from such top players though.

World Ranking
The winner last year ranked 15th and the winners of the two events played here in 2020 ranked 29th and 2nd prior to their wins. The six winners prior ranked 14-38-65-102-212-24. We've therefore seen a mix of winners here, even if recent years have seen better players come to the fore.

Nationality
American golfers have won nine of the last thirteen tournaments played here.

Stats Analysis

SG: Off The Tee
None of the last seven course winners has ranked worse than 32nd for SG: Off The Tee. Rankings have been 3-8-11-13-32-12-26.

SG: Approach
Six of the last seven winners at Muirfield Village have ranked within the top 10 for Strokes Gained: Approach. Only DeChambeau in 2018 ranked outside the top 10 SG: Approach (ranking 24th) and this was in the main thanks to a hot putter. A strong iron player is preferable.

SG: Around The Green
The last seven course winners have ranked 3-2-80-5-33-14-50. A strong short game is useful around here.

SG: Putting
The last seven course winners have ranked 19-32-16-8-9-61-23. It should also be noted that some awful putters like Emiliano Grillo and Byeong-Hun An have very respectable records here.

In Play

Tough Holes
The 16th and 18th generally play as the two hardest holes on the course. Both have averaged over par for the last six Memorial Tournaments.

Birdie Holes
The par 5's 5th and 7th are the two easiest holes on the course.

Closing Stretch
See Tough Holes!

Fast or Slow Start
Only one winner in the last seven events held at Muirfield Village has been outside the top 16 after Round one (William McGirt (44th) - 2016).

Round 3 leaders don't have the best record in this event. Patrick Cantlay came from four back in 2019 and Jason Dufner also won from four back in 2017. David Lingmerth came from three shots back in 2015 and Hideki Matsuyama trailed by two in 2014. Collin Morikawa, winner of the 2020 Workday Charity Open, came from three back.

Players We Almost Backed

Will Zalatoris 28/1
Played here once in 2018 but missed the cut. Was off his game last week missing the cut but understandable after the PGA and rest would have done him good. He also missed the cut at Byron Nelson the week before PGA and came back and finished 2nd. Ranks 1st tee to green for the season. Four top 6 finishes in last six starts - 28/1 is big and we won't be getting this sort of price when he wins.

Chris Kirk 60/1
5th at the PGA and 15th last week. Price has drifted by about 20pts since last week, albeit a stronger field. Finished 26th here last year after a run of poor form and 4th back in 2014 when in similar form to now. Ranks 7th tee to green this season.

Brendan Steele 125/1
Brendan was last seen at the PGA Championship, where he recorded a 9th place finish. He was 4th SG: Approach that week and if he can bring that level of approach play he'll surely be a factor given his normally accurate driving. He's made his last 7 cuts in a row at Muirfield Village, with a couple of top 20 finishes. His three PGA Tour wins have all come after at least a week off so he's a player who plays best when fresh, just as he is this week.

Keith Mitchell 125/1
35th at PGA last start, ranking 4th off the tee. Ranks 5th for the season in this category and winners here have ranked highly. Finished 22nd here in last start after a run of missed cuts.

Cameron Davis 150/1
17th SG: Approach and 19th SG: Off The Tee last week. 3 MCs here though was enough to put us off. Maybe one to watch after round 1.

Charley Hoffman 350/1
13th SG: Approach and 25th SG: Off the tee last week. 7th at the Workday in 2020. Been MIA for a large part of the year, need to see more from him.

Adam Svensson 400/1
Adam was another who struggled in the difficult final round conditions at the Charles Schwab and slumped to a 40th place finish when in a good position after 3 rounds. However, he ranked 25th SG: Off the Tee and 26th SG: Approach. He hasn't played at Muifield Village in a competitive environment but the test should suit him.

In-play

The Memorial Tournament In-Play Blog

Due to unforeseen circumstances there will be no in-play blog for the final round of The Memorial.

+ - Round 3 Bets Click to collapse

4 June 2022, 1pm (UK time)

Player	Total
Smith	-8
McCarthy	-7
Lee	-7
Riley	-6
List	-6
Young	-6
Vegas	-6
Horschel	-6
Four Players Tied	-5

Round 2 Summary

Cameron Smith was able to gain the solo lead but he has plenty of talent within three shots of the lead, including Rory McIlroy. The course firmed up a little but we still saw a few 68's and we can expect it to play harder over the weekend.

Notable Round 2 Quotes

"Putting the ball in the fairway is crucial, to start with. But having control of your second shot, it's a very second-shot golf course in my opinion.." Billy Horschel

" As it firms up, I think just the premiums on ball-striking, hitting fairways and hitting greens." Rory McIlroy

"It was pretty solid. The front nine was really good. The back nine, my swing got away from me a little bit. But stuck in there pretty good. And lots of good par saves." Cameron Smith

Round 3 Weather

Dry, warm and sunny with barely any wind in the afternoon expected. It's likely the officials will let the course dry out as a result of the conditions.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Cameron Smith produced another short game master class and has picked up over 6 shots around the greens so far. Ranking outside the top 40 for approach and off the tee, Smith accepted post-round that he needs to tidy his long game up. To be backing a 3/1 shot at halfway, we would want to see a better standard of play before reaching the green and it wouldn't be for us. As the greens firm up, it is going to be more difficult to make these par saves and unless Smith improves in this area he may struggle.

McIlroy is next in the betting at 8/1 and makes more appeal, with his iron play looking sharp (ranks 4th this week approach). His high ball flight has to be seen as an advantage with minimal wind forecast and holding the firm greens likely to be key. He is a very tempting option.

Thirteen players are still at odds of 28/1 or less, showing how wide open this event still is. We have a mix of talented youngsters and experienced winners and calling the winner is still a very hard task.

Where is the value?

With the tournament still so wide open, we will sit on our hands and see how today progresses before any further involvement. If you are betting in-play, you may want to keep an eye out for the likes of Patrick Cantlay and Jon Rahm making a move from off the pace, both will be starting at 28/1+ today.

Round 3 Bet

No Bet

+ - Round 2 Bets Click to collapse

3 June 2022, 9:30am (UK time)

Player	Total
Riley	-5
Young	-5
List	-5
Smith	-5
Lee	-5
Hughes	-5
Clark	-4
Zalatoris	-4
Hughes	-4
Theegala	-4

Round 1 Summary

We have a very tight leaderboard with six players tied at the top and 20 players within two of the lead. Conditions were soft and are expected to firm up as the week goes on.

Notable Round 1 Quotes

"When I've gotten in those spots, I've just gotten more and more comfortable. I think that's the biggest thing. Just kind of getting out of my own way a little bit. And that's kind of been a game-changer for me." Davis Riley

"Looks like we have dry the rest of the week. I expect it to get firm again on the weekend which I think helps me out." Luke List

"I think this is about as easy as this place is going to get today. I think it's going to be a lot of stressful golf and a lot of grinding over the weekend. Nice to kind of take the box there early in the week." Cameron Smith

Round 2 Weather

Dry, warm and sunny with the wind set to max at around 9mph.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Cameron Smith is 7/1 favourite and he looks worth taking on. Smith hinted after the round that it was a bit of scrappy round and he was lucky to get in at 5 under par. The stats agree, he ranked 80th off the tee and 35th for approach. There are a handful of players around the 12/1 mark who are a big danger to him too - Cameron Young, Will Zalatoris and Davis Riley all have a great chance of landing that first title and can be expected to push on considering their form this season. McIlroy and Spieth are also lurking at 2 under par.

Where is the value?

With 5 places available, they're are plenty of interesting outright prices available.

Round 2 Bets

0.5pts Each Way Sahith Theegala 60/1 @ Ladbrokes (1/5 1-5)

We tipped Sahith up pre-event to our subscribers at 250/1 but there is enough value at 60's to go in again. The youngster is one off the lead ranking 3rd tee to green and top 12 for approach/off the tee. Having held the solo lead for the 2nd and 3rd rounds at Sandersons Farms and Phoenix, Theegala has built up the necessary experience to compete at this grade. He is not as consistent as Young or Riley but looks a likely PGA tour winner in the next 12 months.

0.5pts Each Way Keith Mitchell 125/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-5)

Keith was on our radar before the start, being one of the few three figure priced players who we could see challenging this field. He is an extremely strong driver off the tee and that is what he did well yesterday, ranking 6th. As the course begins to firm up, keeping the ball in play will be key here and a small improvement to his iron play can see him contend.

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