Event Info
Starts: 3rd June 2021
Course: Muirfield Village GC
Par: 72
Length: 7,543 yards
2020 Champion: Jon Rahm
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -10.5pts
Pre-Event Bets: -7.5pts
0.75pts EW Marc Leishman 70/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
0.75pts EW Christiaan Bezuidenhout 80/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW KH Lee 150/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Martin Laird 200/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
1.5pts CT Pan Top 20 Finish 6/1 @ William Hill
1pt Henrik Norlander Top 20 Finish 9/1 @ William Hill
In-Play Bets: -3pts
4 June 2021 (-1pt)
0.5pts EW Nick Taylor 100/1 @ Boylesports(1/5 1-5)
6 June 2021 (-2pts)
2pts Branden Grace to beat Scottie Scheffler 13/8 @ Betfred
Preview
Course Info
Designer: Nicklaus
Used Since: 1976
Fairways: Bentgrass
Greens: Bentgrass.
Water Hazards: In-play on 6 holes.
Par 5's: 5th, 7th, 11th and 15th
Premium on: Approach play
Significant Info
There have been significant changes to the course since last year, greens have been resurfaced, trees added and bunkers rebuilt.
Be aware that two tournaments were played at this course last year - The Workday Charity Open and The Memorial Tournament. The course conditions for last year's Memorial were markedly different to previous years.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather
Thunderstorms forecast for Thursday but dry the rest of the week.
Thursday
Potential thunderstorms, max winds 10mph.
Friday
Partly cloudy, max winds 8mph.
Saturday
Sunny, max winds 10mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, max winds 8mph.
Trends
Winning Score
Jon Rahm won last year with a winning score of -9. However, we can discount that somewhat given the course was setup firm and fast owing to the fact it was being completely renovated following the tournament. The seven events held prior to Rahm's win at this course produced winning scores between -13 and -19.
Interestingly, there have been five playoffs in the last eight events held at Muirfield Village. No player has won by a margin greater than 3 shots since 2004 (Ernie Els).
Course Form
Muirfield Village isn't a course that favours debutants given there have only been two players in the past 12 events held here who won on their debut.
Of the ten winners who had played here before, all bar one had previously recorded a top 40 finish. Six had posted a top 20 before winning.
Recent Form
Since 2014, only three players have posted top 40 finishes in their last start prior to winning at Muirfield Village - Hideki Matsuyama (2014), Patrick Cantlay (2109) and Jon Rahm (2020).
World Ranking
The winners of the two events played here in 2020 ranked 29th and 2nd prior to their wins. The six winners prior ranked 14-38-65-102-212-24. We've therefore seen a mix of winners here, even if recent years have seen better players come to the fore.
Nationality
American golfers have won eight of the last twelve tournaments played here.
Stats Analysis
SG: Off The Tee
None of the last six course winners has ranked worse than 32nd for SG: Off The Tee. Rankings have been 8-11-13-32-12-26.
SG: Approach
Five of the last six winners at Muirfield Village have ranked within the top 10 for Strokes Gained: Approach. Only DeChambeau in 2018 ranked outside the top 10 SG: Approach (ranking 24th) and this was in the main thanks to a hot putter. A strong iron player is preferable.
SG: Around The Green
The last six course winners have ranked 2-80-5-33-14-50.
SG: Putting
The last six course winners have ranked 32-16-8-9-61-23. It should also be noted that some awful putters like Emiliano Grillo and Byeong-Hun An have very respectable records here.
In Play
Tough Holes
The 16th and 18th generally play as the two hardest holes on the course. Both have averaged over par for the last five Memorial Tournaments.
Birdie Holes
The 5th and 7th are the two easiest holes on the course.
Closing Stretch
See Tough Holes!
Fast or Slow Start
Only one winner in the last six events held at Muirfield Village has been outside the top 16 after Round one (William McGirt - 2016)
Round 3 leaders don't have the best record in this event. Patrick Cantlay came from four back in 2019 and Jason Dufner also won from four back in 2017. David Lingmerth came from three shots back in 2015 and Hideki Matsuyama trailed by two in 2014. Collin Morikawa, winner of last year's Workday Charity Open, came from three back.
In-play
The Memorial Tournament In-Play Blog
6th June 2021, 12.15pm
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Cantlay | -12 |
| Morikawa | -12 |
| Scheffler | -9 |
| Grace | -9 |
In a truly remarkable turn of events, Jon Rahm has been forced to withdraw after testing positive for Covid. Rahm had established a six shot lead and was heavy odds-on favourite to win The Memorial for the second time until being notified post-round of his test result.
Those holding Rahm tickets will curse their luck and rightly so. His 64 was as impressive as the Saturday 68 which set up his victory at last year's Memorial and it's a shame he will be denied the chance to go back-to-back.
Collin Morikawa and Patrick Cantlay are the players who have benefited most from Rahm's misfortune. They are both tied at 12 under and are joint favourites at 11/8.
There isn't much to separate the players from tee to green with Morikawa ranking 1st and Cantlay 2nd for SG: Tee To Green. Our preference would be for Morikawa given his record in contention is far superior to that of Cantlay.
Morikawa was admittedly poor when last in contention at the RBC Heritage, but we should remember he's a Major winner and converted the WGC at Concession comfortably when holding the lead. As ever for Morikawa, he needs the putter to behave but he's gained strokes every day on the greens so far this week.
With Grace and Cantlay holding a three shot lead over the chasers, it will take something special for those below to catch them. However, Branden Grace (12/1) and Scottie Scheffler (8/1) are no strangers to low final rounds so you can't rule them out completely.
Both of Scheffler's wins on the Korn Ferry Tour came from off the pace. His first win was particularly notable as he trailed by six through 54 holes. A final round 63 was enough to get the job done and he'll need a low one again today to overcome the leaders. He's a player who's capable of low scores, as evidenced by last year's 59 at the Northern Trust so don't rule him out.
Branden Grace will know how Rahm must feel, having been forced to withdraw from the Barracuda Championship last year after testing positive with Covid. Grace was in 2nd place after two rounds in that tournament and whilst that isn't quite the same as the position Rahm found himself in, it would be fitting if he went on to win here and the karmic equilibrium was restored.
Grace shot a final round 66 to win the Puerto Rico Open earlier this year. That was just one of a number of impressive final rounds when winning tournaments. His last four wins have been secured with final rounds of 66-62-66-66. However, he was poor when in contention at the PGA Championship a couple of weeks ago, firing a final round 78 to slump to 38th. That blip aside, if he gets off to a positive start he'll be a threat.
The forecast is to be dry with the wind forecast to peak at 11mph.
Round 4 Bet
- 2pts Branden Grace to beat Scottie Scheffler 13/8 @ Betfred
As outlined above, both are capable of going low from off the pace on a Sunday but in general we rate Grace in contention more than Scheffler. He was won twice since the beginning of 2020 and was convincing in Puerto Rico with a final round 66. Scheffler is still chasing that first win which makes each Sunday in contention that much harder. Overall, 13/8 is too big for the South African as he has more experience in these situations.
5th June 2021, 10.15am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Cantlay | -8 |
| Rahm (thru 13) | -8 |
| Scheffler | -6 |
| Four players tied | -5 |
Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay lead at Muirfield Village as many of the field are yet to complete their 2nd round. The course changes Jack Nicklaus made prior to this event seem to have made little difference to Rahm and Cantlay, they were the 2019 and 2020 champions.
Rahm edges favouritism at the bookies (2/1) with Cantlay tucked in behind at 7/2. Rahm was dominant from the halfway point onwards last year and it's hard to forget that. Cantlay described his game as being "in a good spot" after his round and that is certainly backed up by the stats as he ranks 2nd SG: Tee To Green. We expect both players to be in contention on Sunday afternoon.
Scottie Scheffler is currently alone in 3rd place. A player of huge potential, he's yet to win on the PGA Tour and our general feeling is that his first win will come at a lower grade event. With that in mind, we see another good finish on the cards for him but possibly not a handshake (*fistbump) from Mr Nicklaus.
The last four winners of The Memorial Tournament have been inside the top 5 at halfway. Given the quality at the top of the leaderboard this year, that trend looks set to continue.
The forecast is set to be dry today with the wind peaking at 12mph.
Round 3 Bets
- No bets
With Rahm and Cantlay at the head of affairs, we are happy to let today play out before reviewing with 18 holes to go.
4th June 2021, 8.15am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Morikawa | -6 |
| Long | -5 |
| Four Players Tied | -4 |
| **Afternoon Wave yet to finish |
Several rain delays meant that the first round was unable to be completed. Some of the afternoon starters have yet to tee off.
Last year's Workday Charity Open champion, Collin Morikawa, leads the way so far and he's the understandable favourite at 4/1.
The forecast is set to be dry to today so the players should make up some ground and hopefully we will see the tournament finish on Sunday as planned.
Round 2 Bets
- 0.5pts Each Way Nick Taylor 100/1 @ Boylesports (1/5 1-5)
With half the field yet to finish their second round we're keeping our stakes small. Nick Taylor is a two time winner on Tour who posted -4 in his opening round. He's a difficult player to get right as he often follows up a good round with a poor one. However, at 100/1 (or even 80/1), we're happy to have a small play on him given he's likely to play most of his second round on Saturday morning.
