Preview

Course Info

For the second week running, Muirfield Village Golf Club hosts the PGA Tour as it is the turn of The Memorial to be played here.  Opened in 1974, this is a Jack Nicklaus designed course located in his hometown of Dublin, Ohio.  

The Memorial has been played here since 1976 so we have a wealth of course form and stats to draw upon.  

As with most Nicklaus designed courses, Muirfield Village offers room off the tee.  Whilst the rough is often punishing, we shouldn't underestimate the significance of the course being used for two consecutive weeks.  The rough will have grown slightly this week and there are also a number of holes where players are forced to lay up.

Player quotes indicate that faders of the ball are favoured at Muirfield Village.   

The greens are usually quick and we can expect them to be much faster than last week.  They are also being ripped up immediately after the event so it'll be interesting to see how they manage the greens given there is no need to protect them post-tournament.

The par 5s are all reachable in two and the par 3s aren't the shortest, ranging from range from 185-200+ yards.  There are six really demanding par 4s in excess of 450 yards and, combined with the long par 3s, cause the players the most difficulty.

Significant Info

Compared to previous weeks, it was quiet on the Covid-19 front at the Workday Charity Open. However, given the situation in America we should still be alert to the possibility of players being affected prior to Thursday and during the event.

Continue to exercise an abundance of caution (credit: Chase Koepka and the PGA Tour) at the outset, especially in relation to those who haven't teed it up yet and keep a watching brief in-play.

Trends

In the last ten years, only one winner has been an event debutant (Hideki Matsuyama in 2014).  Of the nine winners who have played here before, all bar one had previously recorded a top 40 finish. Six had posted a top 20 before winning.  However, we should note that Collin Morikawa was a course debutant when he won last week at the Workday Charity Open.

Aside from 2012 (-9), winning scores at Muirfield Village in the last 10 years have varied between 12 under par and 19 under.

There have been four play-offs in the last six years at the Memorial (there was also a playoff last week) and no player has won by a margin greater than 3 shots since 2004 (Ernie Els).  

Americans have won seven of the last ten Memorial tournaments (Collin Morikawa continued this trend last week also).

Stats Analysis

In the last couple of years we have seen the winners diverge from the tried and tested formula at the Memorial.  Both Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau ranked 4th for driving distance and neither was within the top 50 for driving accuracy.  Last week Collin Morikawa ranked 9th in Driving Accuracy but he was no slouch off the tee either as he ranked 19th in Driving Distance.  Players who rank highly for both accuracy and distance are preferred this week.

Three of the last four winners have ranked within the top 10 for Strokes Gained: Approach. Only DeChambeau in 2018 ranked outside the top 10 SG: Approach (ranking 24th) and this was in the main thanks to a hot putter.  Morikawa ranked 3rd in SG: Approach when he won last week, so a strong iron player is definitely preferable.

Three of the last five winners have ranked inside the top 7 for Strokes Gained: Putting but we should also remember that Jason Dufner won here in 2017 ranking 47th (!) in this category. Bad putters can win if they have an exceptional week tee to green.  It should also be noted that some really awful putters like Hideki Matsuyama, Emiliano Grillo and Byeong-Hun An have very respectable records here.

In Play

Leaders don't have the best record here.  Patrick Cantlay, last year, and Jason Dufner (2017) both won from four back.  David Lingmerth came from three shots back in 2015 and Hideki Matsuyama trailed by two in 2014.

Last week Morikawa come from three shots back in what was a roller coaster final round as he trailed Justin Thomas by two shots with two holes to go.  

Where winners have held the lead in recent years (DeChambeau in 2018 and William McGirt in 2016), they have won after significant challenges (in both years challengers went heavy odds on favourites in running).  

With this in mind, we should look for value in the chasing pack going into the final round.

Six To Watch

Patrick Cantlay - 14/1 @ William Hill
Patrick is undeniably short this week. However, his record at Muirfield Village is exceptional as he's finished 4th and 1st in the last two Memorials and came 7th last week. His performance last week was even more impressive when you consider it was only his second start since golf resumed. He finished last week with an effortless 65 which he stated could easily have been lower. Conditions being harder this week are likely to suit and he'll enter this week with as much confidence as anyone.

Tiger Woods - 25/1 @ William Hill
Thursday will be the first time we've seen Tiger tee it up on the PGA Tour since February at the Genesis Invitational. A ten week break at the end of last year didn't stop him dominating the Zozo Championship in Japan. We also saw him in action at the Charity match with Phil Mickelson and he was in sparkling form. Obviously we'll take that with a pinch of salt but it was encouraging to see him play well. Tiger is a multiple winner at Memorial and there's every chance he wins again this week. To put Tiger's price this week in context, he's a general price of 14/1 to win the US PGA in a few weeks.

Billy Horschel - 80/1 @ Bet365
Billy said on Sunday that he "loves" Muirfield Village and he played "really good" as he finished tied 7th. He went on to say that he had his instructor, Todd Anderson, arriving on Monday who would "tighten everything up" and fix his flaws in a "snap of the fingers." He's a player who plays well when he is confident and can back up good results the following week so his interview was really encouraging. He posted a 9th place finish last year at Memorial so thats consecutive top 10s at this course and the 80/1 being offered is too generous for a player who has won a FedEx Cup and multiple events on tour.
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Jason Day - 66/1 @ Betway
Jason Day showed enough last week to indicate he’s not too far off putting it all together for one week. A final round 65 in firmer conditions which we should expect this week was good enough for a 7th place finish and after the round he was very positive about how his game is progressing. Putting has mainly been his issue this year, however he has been putting in the work over lockdown and is starting to see the results. This is a home tournament for Jason and he could make odds of 66/1 look very silly come Sunday.

Danny Willett - 125/1 @ William Hill
Although Danny missing last week could be perceived as a slight negative, it hasn’t been forgotten how well he played the week prior to finish 4th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, despite an opening round 71 leaving him 6 shots back on Thursday. He finished 6th tee to green which is interesting as putting has been a strength for him this season. Finished 27th last year here at his course debut and has the game to improve on that this year. Danny showed last year that he is rock solid in the mix when he defeated Jon Rahm to win the BMW PGA Championship.

Troy Merritt - 225/1 @ Bet365
Troy is our outside pick this week since impressing the last couple of weeks. 8th at Rocket Mortgage was followed by a 22nd place finish last week. He showed strong iron play finishing 5th SG: Approach the green and 9th for Greens In Regulation. If Troy can find a few more fairways this week he could put himself in a position to get a place at monster odds. Also finished 17th here last year.

In-play

In-Play Blog

19 July 2020

-12 Rahm
-8 Palmer
-8 Finau
-6 Willett
-5 Norlander
-5 Day
​-4 Wallace
-4 Reavie

Jon Rahm shot an exceptional 68 yesterday to take a four stroke lead into today's final round.  With greens becoming hard and fast, players struggled to post the low scores that we saw on Friday, with only Brendon Todd managing to equal Rahm's score.

Understandably, Jon goes into today's final round as hot favourite (1/4) and rightly so owing to the quality of golf he is playing.  His interviews have been extremely impressive as he has spoken about remaining committed to each shot and accepting that mistakes will inevitably happen. He also plays today with Ryan Palmer, a close friend and his playing partner when they won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans last year.

There are a number of reasons to suggest Jon is worth taking on today.  He's 0/2 when holding a 54 hole lead on the PGA Tour, having lost out when leading by a single stroke at The Players Championship in 2019 and the Farmers Insurance Open this year.  The wind is forecast to be strong today with 16mph+ winds expected, making an already difficult course even harder.  Let's be clear, Jon will make bogeys today and the test will be how he handles those.

Jon also has the pressure of knowing that a win today would see him take over as world number one, something he describes as "extremely important" to him.  An exciting final day awaits!

1pt Ryan Palmer - 14/1 @ Genting Bet
1pt Each Way (1/5 1,2,3,4) Brendan Steele without Rahm, Finau and Palmer - 33/1 @ Boylesports
1ptEach Way (1/5 1,2,3,4) Scottie Scheffler without Rahm, Finau and Palmer - 40/1 @ Boylesports
3pts Jon Rahm, Jason Day and Tony Finau to finish Top 10 - Evens @William Hill

As we mentioned above, Ryan partnered Jon Rahm to the 2019 Zurich Classic of New Orleans.  He's not normally one to trust on a Sunday afternoon but this comfortable pairing and the fact he is the chaser may suit him down to the ground.  He's a comfortable wind player and his tee-to-green stats have been exceptional this week, ranking 2nd in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.  He was unlucky on the greens yesterday and he's worth risking at 14/1.

In the event the front three escape the field it is worth having a look at Boylesport's market without the leaders.  These two players are proven in the wind so can be backed with confidence going into the final round. Both shot under par yesterday and are only two shots off the each way places in this market.  On a day when big swings are expected these are solid plays.

We'd normally avoid #YourOdds bets like this but the way the event is shaping up we actually think it represents very good value.  Pins are tucked away for the final round and with the wind up it is difficult to see anyone from the chasing pack shooting low. 
With that in mind, Finau and Rahm can probably go over par and still make the top 10.  Jason Day loves firm and fast conditions and if today is to be a grind, he's the man for the job.  He mentioned in his interview yesterday that he's "looking forward to tomorrow" and it's going to be "a lot of fun" so he's clearly relishing the test.  He also referenced conditions being similar to the Players Championship he won in 2016.  All three should make the top 10.

18 July 2020

-9 Finau
-9 Palmer
-8 Rahm
-6 Woodland
-6 Reavie
-6 List
​-5 Day

With the wind nowhere near as strong, and almost benign conditions early on, we saw much lower scoring yesterday.  Of the top seven golfers above, only two (List and Day) played in the afternoon. The top two remain the same from day one.

The players were unanimous that conditions are getting firmer.  Jason Day stated in his interview that "the ball started bouncing a lot today, so it's going to be a bit of a grind out there over the next two days."  With the wind forecast to be strong on the last day we could have an interesting weekend.

Talking point of the day was undoubtedly Bryson DeChambeau's 10 on the 15th hole.  A couple of balls out of bounds, some unnecessary behaviour towards referees and his caddie blocking the camera from recording him (albeit on the next hole) were all part of the Bryson Show.  Keep in mind that he was berating himself on the first hole yesterday about the quality of his wedge play after he had hit a monster drive.  He's clearly a man who, for all the gains he's made off the tee, is still not entirely comfortable with the changes going on with his swing/body.

Tiger's comeback almost ended in a missed cut as he struggled to a 76. However, the cut moved to +3 late in the day and he's made the weekend on the number.  It is a worry though that he missed two putts under 4ft.

As previously stated, the forecast is for it to be relatively calm again today with the wind kicking up to 9mph later in the afternoon. Sunday looks interesting with winds of 15mph with potential gusts up to 28mph.

1pt Justin Thomas to win without Rahm and Finau - 10/1 @ Boylesports
1pt Each Way (1/5 1,2,3,4) Luke List to win without Rahm and Finau - 10/1 @ Boylesports
0.5pt Each Way (1/5 1,2,3,4) Danny Willett - 66/1 @ 888 Sport
2ptsJustin Thomas to beat Rory Mcllroy (Mythical 2 ball bet) - Evens @ Skybet
2pts Collin Morikawa to beat Tiger Woods (Mythical 2 ball bet) - Evens @ Skybet

Justin lost out here last week in a playoff against Collin Morikawa and through the first 13 holes on Thursday it looked very much like he was suffering a significant hangover.  He was four over par and looking like a man who was going to miss the cut. His putting was particularly poor on day one and he struggled with the difference in pace from last week. However, two birdies in the final five holes on Thursday and a bogey free 67 yesterday have seen him climb to 16th.  His slow start means that he'll do well to catch Rahm and Finau now, but he can go low over the weekend and be best of the rest.

Luke has played incredibly well this week, recording only one bogey over his opening two rounds.  He ranks 6th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.  He's highest placed from the morning/afternoon side of the draw, showing just how well he has played. 
We know he can handle the wind as he won at a blustery TPC Sawgrass in June on the Korn Ferry Tour.  At the time he was quoted as saying, "It was challenging out there today. The wind was swirling, it was gusting pretty hard, we had a lot of into-cross winds, so I’m happy with 3-under, for sure."  He's a solid each way play in this market.

Danny shot a sparkling 66 yesterday to haul himself back into things.  A previous Masters winner, he hinted that a return to form was imminent with a 4th place finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in his last start.  A fine player in firm and fast conditions, he's also got experience of seeing off Jon Rahm (at the BMW PGA Championship in 2019). If it comes down to a battle with him and Rahm.  Danny closed with 67-66 at the Rocket Mortgage. A similar finish this weekend would get very close.

Collin won here last week and suffered a first round hangover, shooting a 76.  On closer inspection this was due to a three hole stretch and in his post round interview stated, "I was 5-over through a three-hole stretch. I had two three-putts today, so just clean things up for tomorrow and we're perfectly fine."  That proved to be the case yesterday as he bounced back with a two under par 70.  Tiger struggled yesterday and was lucky to make the cut.  His short putting is a cause for concern and he had several good scrambles to save par.  Collin can defeat him today.

For the reasons we have highlighted above we think Justin is in for a strong weekend.  Rory is obviously quite capable of a brilliant weekend also, but with conditions firming up this is likely to suit him less than Justin.  Rory struggled with his irons yesterday and had four bogeys and a double.  If he does that again today he's unlikely to get low enough to beat Justin.

17 July 2020

-6 Finau
-5 Palmer
-4 Steele
-4 Woodland
-3 Howell
-3 Rahm
​-3 Glover

It was a very different Muirfield yesterday as the wind blew all day and a combination of faster greens and thicker rough gave some of the world's best players all sorts of problems.

A Rickie Fowler 81, Dustin Johnson 80 and Xander Schauffele 78 were the most shocking scores, and last week's play-off duo Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas could only manage 76 and 74 respectively. When asked how different the course played, Thomas replied "It's not even remotely close to the same. I mean, you've still got to hit the shots, and I don't want to say it was a disadvantage, but it was a totally, totally different golf course. The course is in fantastic shape right now. It's very tough."

Brendan Steele took the lead from the morning wave at -4 but he was soon overtaken by Tony Finau who fired 6 birdies on the back 9 for -6. Ryan Palmer went round bogey free to finish one back and Gary Woodland was able to match Steele's 68 to sit in third.

Tiger Woods threatened to take the first round lead after a fast start going 2 under par through 3 but could only manage a 71 to finish 5 behind. Market leaders Rory Mcllroy and Patrick Cantlay sit at -2 and Jon Rahm is one better at -3.

The forecast is for it to be a lot calmer today with hardly a breath of wind and much of the same Saturday. Sunday looks interesting with winds of 13mph with potential gusts up to 28mph.

Tony Finau goes out early today and has a chance to stretch away from the field a little in softer morning conditions. He commented after Round 1 that he is also taking the Bryson DeChambeau approach trying to increase his ball speed. He was hitting it a fair distance yesterday, including driving into the greenside bunker of the 366 yard 14th hole. He will do well to replicate yesterdays round however, as he was +4.4 strokes gained on the field with the putter. 

1pt Each Way (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) Paul Casey - 50/1 @ Boylesports
2ptsPatrick Cantlay to beat Jon Rahm (Mythical 2 ball bet) - Evens @ Bet Victor

Paul hasn't played much golf since lockdown but he was 32nd on his only start at Travelers and has started nicely this week finishing -1. He ranked 5th SG: Tee to Green and what stood out was the amount of fairways he hit - 11/13 (joint best in field).

With the greens firmed up, it seems you have to be playing from the fairway this week. Paul had a poor putting day, but a little improvement will see him rise up the leaderboard. He has a nice early tee time to make his move. 

It was a bit of a shock to see Dustin so out of sorts yesterday but we are equally surprised to see 10/11 available on the steady Patrick Cantlay to defeat him today. He won this match up by 10 shots yesterday and even though we expect an improvement from Dustin, Patrick loves this course and should have enough here.