Event Info
Starts: 29th October 2020
Course: Port Royal Golf Course, Bermuda
Par: 71
Length: 6,828 yards
2019 Champion: Brendon Todd
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: +74.5pts
Pre-Event Six to Watch
MC Wes Bryan - 50/1 @ William Hill (8 places)
T34th Max Homa - 80/1 @ Skybet (7 places)
T26th Beau Hossler - 90/1 @Betfred (7 places)
MC Josh Teater - 175/1 @ Spreadex (6 places)
MC Kelly Kraft - 200/1 @ Spreadex (6 Places)
MC Tommy Gainey - 500/1 @ William Hill (8 places)
In-Play Bets: +74.5pts
30 October 2020 ( +17 Points)
1pt Each Way Henrik Stenson (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 66/1 @ Bet365
1pt Each Way Matt Jones (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) - 100/1 @ Skybet
31 October 2020 ( +57.5 Points)
1.5pts Each Way Kiradech Aphibarnrat (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 30/1 @ 888Sport
1pt Each Way Bryce Garnett (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 60/1 @ Skybet
0.5pts Each Way Brian Gay (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 100/1 @ Skybet
Preview
Course Info
Course Designer: Robert Trent Jones
Tournament played here since: 2019
Type of Course: Short, coastal track exposed to the wind. Very hilly.
Fairways: Very tight off the tee, the field average for fairways hit was only 54% in 2019. Bermuda rough only two inches long but enough to make approach shots difficult.
Greens: Smaller than average TifEagle Bermuda greens running 10.5 on Stimpmeter on account of the wind.
Par 5's: 2nd, 7th and 17th
Water Hazards: In play on five of the holes.
Premium on: Approach play
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
The weather! Caution is advised this week due to the significant wind forecast. There will be some good in-play opportunities as a result.
Shot-link is not used in this event so don't expect to have Tour Cast available to track shots.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Trends
Winning Score: Todd won last year with -24 but that was in much calmer conditions. We won't see a winning score anywhere near that.
Course Form: As the tournament was held for the first time last year we cannot draw any analysis.
Recent Form: Todd won last year on the back of a 28th place finish at the Houston Open. As ever, recent form is preferred but not essential.
Stats Analysis
With no Strokes Gained stats available it is clear that accurate players are preferred. Brendon Todd won having ranked 4th for Driving Accuracy and 10th for Greens in Regulation.
In Play
Tough Holes: The par 3s will go a long way to determining the winner. Holes 13 and 16 can play in excess of 230 yards and the eighth is 210 yards
Birdie Holes: The 7th hole (par 5) is a must-birdie hole.
Fast or Slow Start: Todd shot an opening 68 and trailed first round leader, Scottie Scheffler, by 6 shots. He was still behind with 18 holes to go, before overcoming a two shot deficit. It is possible to play catch up here
Six To Watch
Wes Bryan - 50/1 @ William Hill (8 places)
Wes has displayed remarkable consistency since golf resumed after the Covid-19 hiatus. He's missed only one cut (Safeway Open) and posted his best finish of the season last time out - 12th at the Sanderson Farms Championship. He ranked 10th SG: Approach which bodes well for this week. He missed all of 2019 due to injury so he's very much a player on the comeback trail. We shouldn't forget he won the 2017 Heritage and three times on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2016. In an event like this he's a very real danger.
Max Homa - 80/1 @ Skybet (7 places)
Max has added Bermuda at late notice as preparation for the Masters. He was on the Get a Grip Podcast this week stating he's "very happy" with his game and feels "comfortable." He has clearly been working hard these past few weeks having been unable to get into the CJ Cup or Zozo Championship. He's playing without his normal caddie and will be employing a local bag carrier but given the testing conditions forecast that may not be a bad thing. His win at the Wells Fargo Championship in 2019 came after a three week break so can go well here.
Beau Hossler - 90/1 @ Betfred (7 places)
Beau was unlucky not to notch his first PGA Tour win in 2018, posting two runner ups. Playing out of Dallas, he's a fine wind player and he should be able to cope better than most. He placed 24th at this event last season, with three rounds of 68 or better. Only a poor third round 74 prevented a top 10 or even a top 5. He's been steady rather than spectacular so far this season but this could be the kind of event that sees him breakthrough.
Josh Teater - 175/1 @ Spreadex (6 places)
Josh came close to a maiden PGA Tour win at the Puerto Rico Open earlier this year. Only a long putt from Viktor Hovland on the 72nd hole prevented Josh from getting into a playoff and there's every reason to like him this week. He's struggled since golf resumed but posted his best finish since Puerto Rico in his last start two weeks ago. A 27th place on the Korn Ferry Tour may not seem like much to shout about but he ranked 12th for Greens in Regulation and 27th for Driving Accuracy, showing his long game was in fine form. He was 11th in this tournament last year and there's every reason to get him onside.
Kelly Kraft - 200/1 @ Spreadex (6 Places)
Kelly has had runner-up finishes on the PGA Tour in each of the last three calendar years and he's very much a player who could follow in the footsteps of last year's winner, Brendon Todd. Like him, Kraft is on the comeback trail, having missed the 19-20 season due to injury. He's been 46th and 14th in his last two starts, giving him some confidence ahead of this week. Perhaps most eye catching is his record in the Puntacana event, a coastal track which is also affected by the wind. Kelly has been 3rd, 5th and 14th the past three years, demonstrating a liking for this sort of examination.
Tommy Gainey - 500/1 @ William Hill (8 places)
Tommy 'Two Gloves' is a huge outsider but with eight places available and unpredictable weather forecast, he's worth consideration. He's been troubled by injuries and personal problems in recent years which has hindered his golf. Indeed, he avoided jail in February for soliciting a prostitute. However, that incident seems to have spurred him to turn things around and he won on the Korn Ferry Tour on his first start following his arrest. That came on an island course in the Bahamas, showing us this test may well suit. He was 15th in his last outing two weeks ago on the Korn Ferry Tour, ranking 6th for Driving Accuracy. Gainey spoke of getting his "life back on track" after his win in the Bahamas and a decent result here would certainly go a long way to doing so.
In-play
In-Play Blog
1st November 2020
-10 Redman
-9 Clark
-9 Armour
-9 Hickok
-8 Schniederjans
-8 Jones
-8 Gay
Doc Redman leads by one with a round to go and is 5/2 favourite. Blustery conditions saw Doc excel and it was notable he played the tough 15th and 16th holes in 1 under par when others were dropping shots.
Doc has a 3⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating but he is yet to win as a professional. A former US Amateur champion, he is a player with much promise and will undoubtedly win soon given the quality of his ball striking. With six players within two shots of the lead he's unlikely to get things his own way today and he's not one we'd want to back at those odds.
Ryan Armour hit it poorly yesterday but clung on admirably to keep himself in it. He's the only one of the top four who have won on the PGA Tour, so he does have that experience to draw upon. We like his chances better than Hickock or Clark.
Redman's main challengers could be those at 8 under par. Matt Jones is a two time winner of the Australian Open and a PGA Tour winner at the 2014 Houston Open. We advised him at 100/1 after the first round and he's fancied to challenge Redman today.
The wind is expected to be much less than the previous two days, peaking around 13mph. We should see some lower scores as a result.
We have Gay, Jones and Aphibarnrat well in contention from previous days bets. We're happy to leave things as they are but those who want a bet could do worse than look at Doug Ghim at 33/1. Doug was runner up to Doc Redman at the 2017 US Amateur, losing out in sudden death. He'll relish coming from behind today and may be one to watch if he gets off to a hot start.
31st October 2020
-8 Clark
-8 Armour
-7 Hickok
-6 Schniederjans
-6 Redman
As outlined yesterday, round one leader Peter Malnati faced the toughest of the conditions in round two and has slipped back to five under par. Taking up the mantle are Ryan Armour and Wyndham Clark, with Clark taking favouritism at the bookies at a best price of 5/1.
Clark held the 36 hole lead at the Waste Management Phoenix Open in February this year but was very poor in contention. He only has a 2⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating and with the weather conditions expected to be tricky again, there's every reason to think he'll slip back over the final two rounds.
Ryan Armour last won in 2017 and although we'd prefer him to Clark, we think he's also too short at 15/2 given the testing weather. We expect to see movement from those off the pace today and that's where we will focus our attention.
The wind is not expected to be as strong as yesterday but the players will still have to contend with a breeze in excess of 20mph. Interestingly the wind will come from the opposite direction so players will be further tested.
1.5pts Each Way Kiradech Aphibarnrat (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 30/1 @ 888Sport
1pt Each Way Bryce Garnett (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 60/1 @ Skybet
0.5pts Each Way Brian Gay (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 100/1 @ Skybet
"It's good to be back at the course, and grass really similar to Asia, feel I go back home again. My swing feeling much better. Everyone know I've been struggling almost a year after I get injury from the Masters 2018 and I got a hard time to came back. But then couple good weeks, it might be a turning point and came back to playing real golf."
Kiradech gave the above interview yesterday after his round and it's very interesting that he spoke of the course reminding him of Asia. He played his first seven holes of the tournament in 3 over par and has played the subsequent 29 holes in eight under par. Going bogey free yesterday was a fine display in testing conditions and he can be backed to go well again today.
Brice was the 2018 Corales Puntacana winner and also has a a 5th place finish at the Mayakoba Classic. He's extremely comfortable on shorter, wind exposed courses and he's a good price to go well this weekend. All facets of his game are working well this week, ranking inside the top 35 in all stats categories except Driving Distance (which isn't required here). With doubts over the leaders and windy conditions expected again, Brice is a solid play.
Given Henrik Stenson pulled out with injury yesterday after nine holes, we are making a small third play. Brian finished 3rd here last year and is a brilliant wind player. Interesting, on his way to third last year he was quoted as saying about the course, "it's familiar to me with what I've played for a long time and what I grew up on." At three figure odds he's worth a small investment.
29th October 2020
-8 Malnati
-7 Armour
-7 Ghim
-6 Seiffert
-6 Redman
-6 Taylor
Peter Malnati continued his good form as he opened up with a 63 at the Bermuda Championship. He's now the 15/2 favourite but with significant wind forecast over the next three days, there's little value to be had backing him. The wind is forecast to be in excess of 20mph all day tomorrow, with the afternoon starters likely to face the strongest of the gusts.
It goes without saying that we require players who are comfortable in the wind. With that in mind, we have selected two players at bigger odds but with proven wind experience.
1pt Each Way Henrik Stenson (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 66/1 @ Bet365
1pt Each Way Matt Jones (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) - 100/1 @ Skybet
If we are placing emphasis on ball striking and ability to deal with the wind, odds of 66/1 on this former Open Champion are to be snapped up. Henrik sits 6 shots off he pace, just as Brendon Todd did last year on his way to the title. Although we won't see Henrik shoot scores in the low 60s over the next three rounds (due to the weather), we will see him fare better than most in the battle against the elements. He played nicely over the front nine in round one before losing his way slightly over the back nine but a closing birdie has kept him in touch ahead of round two. He ranked 1st for Driving Accuracy on day one and if we see a slight improvement with his irons he'll be further up the leaderboard tomorrow.
William Hill are offering 8 places and with such generous each way terms we think Matt Jones is a value selection. He does have an afternoon tee time so will face the strongest of the wind but we're happy with his wind credentials to make him a play. A two time winner of the Australian Open, he's also won in Houston so he's a player who is used to grinding it out in difficult conditions. He drove it nicely yesterday and scrambled well too, qualities that he'll need again tomorrow. Finally, he was 14th a few weeks ago at Puntacana, a marginal improvement will see him land one of the eight places on offer.
