Preview
2023 Sony Open Tips
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Event Info
Starts: 12th January 2023
Course: Waialae CC, Hawaii
Par: 70
Length: 7,044 yards
2022 Champion: Hideki Matsuyama
Course Info
Course Designer: Seth Raynor
Course Used Since: 1965
Course Type: Coastal
Fairways: Average width
Rough: Bermuda
Greens: Small, Bermuda
Par 5's: 9th & 18th
Water Hazards: On 5 holes
Premium on: Putting
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
-A number of players have not competed since November or early December. However, some players played in the Sentry Tournament of Champions last week.
Trends
Winning Score
Hideki Matsuyama triumphed with a score of -23 last year with very little wind. Previous winning scores were -21, -11, -22, -17, -27, -20, -23, -17 and -24 (most recent first). Winning score fluctuates depending on the conditions.
Correlating Courses
Several players have described the Mayakoba Golf Classic and RBC Heritage (Hilton Head) as similar tests. The Greenbrier was also designed by Raynor and has several players who have done well at both.
Course Experience
Only one debutant has won at Waialae in the past eleven years (Russell Henley in 2013). Side with those with course experience.
Course Form
Six of the last eleven winners had posted a top 12 in this event prior to their win.
Rust
Cameron Smith is the only player to have triumphed in the last nine years that hadn't played at Kapalua the previous week. However, we should note that he had played in Australia in the third week in December so had the advantage of still being relatively sharp. We are certainly factoring rust into our Sony Open picks this week.
Recent Form
Three of the past nine winners had a top 10 at Kapalua and seven of the past nine winners were inside the top 21 the previous week. However, in 2021 Kevin Na finished dead last at the Tournament of Champions so sometimes just playing the week before is beneficial! Preference is for players with a top 20 last week or ones that finished the year well in 2020.
Fall Momentum
You often hear many players speaking of "carrying momentum from the fall" into the new year.
Nationality
Americans have dominated here, 11 of the last 14 winners were from the USA.
Weather
Thursday
Sunny max wind of 11mph.
Friday
Sunny max wind of 6mph.
Saturday
Sunny max wind of 7mph.
Sunday
Partly Cloudy max wind of 14mph.
Stats Analysis
Any Sony Open pick has to have strong SG Approach and SG: Putting figures this week.
SG: Off The Tee
The last five winners have ranked 5-44-36-9-107-2 (most recent first). It's not essential to drive it well at Waialae.
SG: Approach
The last five winners have ranked 25-5-85-7-4-5. Four of the last six winners have ranked inside the top five in this category.
SG: Around The Green
The past five winners have ranked 22-8-21-40-59-39. Not the essential stat this week.
SG: Putting
Hideki Matsuyama ranked 1st in this statistic last year. Five of the six winners before him ranked inside the top 6 for SG: Putting. It is a key stat to success here.
In-play Golf Betting Advice
Tough Holes
The opening six holes are generally the toughest section of the course. Four of the six toughest holes are in this stretch (holes 2, 4, 6 and 1 - in order of difficulty). Hideki Matsuyama was four under par for these holes but the to winners prior to him, Kevin Na and Cameron Smith, played these holes in two under par and two over par.
Birdie Holes
The two par 5s are must birdie holes, generally playing at least half a shot under par for the week.
Fast or Slow Start
It is possible to play catch up here. Seven of the last eight winners were at least two shots back after round one. Five of the last eight winners were at least 3 shots back after round two. We can look for lively outsiders from a few shots back each round.
Closing stretch
The final hole (par 5) plays like a par 4 and a birdie is expected. Eagles are possible.
Previous Sony Open tips
You can access our historical Sony Open tips using the links below:
2022
2021
Player Notes 2022
"Cam and I were talking about it a couple times, it's bizarre to see it (the wind) so calm. I certainly don't remember that the years I played it. You want to be aggressive but the fairways are starting to firm up a little bit. A couple times, like on 9 my last hole, hit a good shot runs into very thick rough." Seamus Power
"Playing last week is a big help to be honest. Even showing up last week. What's funny is you kind of forget what you were doing, the registration and all the little things forget you have to do. So to kind of get that out of the way last week and come here feeling ready to go instead of not wondering what you're going to be doing. So that's it's a big help. And then my game is in a good spot. It's the best it's been coming here, so like those two factors together lead to some better scores." Seamus Power
"It's reminiscent of Hilton Head and Colonial, and you know, it's tough on the normal day, and this year, with the rough up, it's really penalizing. So finding fairways is a big part of having success around here. The course is a bit soft. They had huge rain about a month ago and I think some last week but all things considered, you want to say out of this rough. You want to find fairways. If you're in fairways, you have a chance to make birdies." Matt Kuchar
"But, yeah, rough a crazy thick because of all the rain they had in December. Birdies are there if you're in the fairway. Greens are perfect. Golf courses is perfect." Lucas Glover
2023 Sony Open Tips
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In-play
2023 Sony Open In-Play Blog
15th January 2023, 12:45pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Buckley |
-15 |
| Lipsky |
-13 |
| Kirk |
-13 |
| Taylor B |
-13 |
| Putnam |
-12 |
| Kim S W |
-12 |
2023 Sony Open Round 3 Summary
Calm conditions saw low scoring and Hayden Buckley opened up a two shot lead. Round two leader Chris Kirk is two back but J J Spaun dropped back to 16th place.
Notable Round 2 Sony Open Quotes
"I think the firmness of the course is very difficult. Just because you hit it straight doesn't mean it's going to be in the fairway and the rough is up pretty heavily, so I think I've just hit the right shots at the right time." Hayden Buckley
" I've played this course so many times that it's definitely a place where I'm very comfortable. You know, being right around the lead on Sunday is never an incredibly comfortable feeling, but something that I love. That's kind of why we do this, to have a chance to win on Sunday." Chris Kirk
Sony Open Round 4 Weather
Cloudy with the wind expected to peak at 13mph. Conditions should be tougher than yesterday and need to be considered.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Buckley is now 21/10 favourite and his record when leading on the minor tours is impressive, converting 2/2. He has yet to feel this burden on the PGA Tour though and he hasn't been tested at this level. A 68 at Zozo when starting the final round in 5th was decent enough but we would expect him to make mistakes today.
Chris Kirk is next in the betting at 6/1 and we strongly considered him given how well he bounced back from an opening double bogey. He has performed poorly in contention recently and passed up a few chances of winning here already.
David Lipsky is 3rd favourite at 15/2 but that's not for us. He has went backwards the last three times he started round four in the top five.
The truth is just about everyone on this leaderboard has been poor in contention of late and we can expect an exciting day of golf with the lead changing hands.
Where is the value?
The leaders look vulnerable and we shouldn't be put off chancing someone from off the pace.
Round 4 Bet
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14th January 2023, 7:45am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Kirk |
-11 |
| Montgomery |
-10 |
| Spaun |
-10 |
| Buckley |
-9 |
| Lipsky |
-9 |
| Three players tied |
-8 |
2023 Sony Open Round 2 Summary
Incredibly, round one joint leader and yesterday's favourite, Jordan Spieth, missed the cut. Spieth could only manage a 75, largely due to four bogeys in a row around the turn. Chris Kirk birdied his opening three holes and used that momentum to take the sole lead at halfway.
Notable Round 2 Sony Open Quotes
"Yeah, it suits my game. You got to drive it really well here and it's short. Normally I'm a pretty good wedge player. It's like the longer irons that I've been struggling with. But it's up and down. One day I could hit them really good and then the next is not so great; whereas I feel like my chipping and putting and driving has been very consistent." Taylor Montgomery
"I've never led a tournament and missed the cut before. It's not like I wouldn't have replayed anything that I -- I made a bad swing; didn't really make any bad decisions. Just got just the ball in the wrong spots at the wrong places, and out here you just have to be fairway, fairway, fairway. I just didn't drive it as well today." Jordan Spieth
"I've felt good about the way my swing has been this week. I've driven the ball for the most part really well. Hit a lot of really quality irons shots and wedge shots. Didn't quite make as many putts today as yesterday maybe, but I feel like I'm rolling the ball really nicely. I'm hitting my lines. My speed has been pretty good. Just more of the same recipe." Chris Kirk
Sony Open Round 3 Weather
Sunny with the wind expected to peak at 6mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Taylor Montgomery is 4/1 favourite. We were surprised to see Montgomery priced lower than leader, Chris Kirk. The 27 year old American has largely been reliant on his putter this week (he is 1st SG: Putting). That's not unusual, he ranks 11th SG: Putting for the 2022-23 season, but his long game may cause him to lean on the putter over the weekend.
It is also worth mentioning that Montgomery is yet to win as a professional on the Korn Ferry Tour or PGA Tour. Two seasons on the Korn Ferry Tour may have yielded seven top three finishes but none of those opportunities were converted to wins. He wouldn't be our favourite at this stage.
Chris Kirk is next in the betting at 5/1. A two time runner up in this event, he'd dearly love to make it third time lucky. He's certainly playing well enough, ranking 7th SG: Tee to Green and 4th SG: Approach. Given his course experience and four wins on Tour, he edges favouritism in our eyes.
J.J. Spaun can be backed at 11/2. Given the poor performance of the favourites this week, he represents the best chance of continuing the trend that states this event is generally won by a player who played the Tournament of Champions. Eight of the last nine winners of the Sony have played at Kapalua.
Where is the value?
With the exception of Kevin Na in 2021, every winner in the last five years has been inside the top 10 at the halfway stage.
Round 3 Bet
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13th January 2023, 11:05am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Montogmery |
-6 |
| Spieth |
-6 |
| Kirk |
-6 |
| Seven players tied |
-5 |
2023 Sony Open Round 1 Summary
We have a really bunched leaderboard with six players within one shot of the lead. Jordan Spieth performed strongest out of the pre-event favourites whilst Tom Kim is now eight back after a 72.
Notable Round 1 Sony Open Quotes
" I'm trying to win, but it's so hard. Hard to concentrate for four days over every shot. For me it is. I don't know." Taylor Montgomery
"I don't have as much experience on bermudagrass greens as a lot of these guys, but I do notice I putt better as the week goes on. I'm happy to see those putts tracking, and really happy the second nine today." Maverick McNealy
"For sure. I've had a lot of good finishes here, a couple really close calls to win here in the past. Just a place where I'm comfortable." Chris Kirk
Sony Open Round 2 Weather
Sunny with the wind expected to peak at 8mph. Morning starters should have relatively flat conditions.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Jordan Spieth is 9/2 favourite and it's a price that feels extremely short given the bunched leaderboard - 40 players are within three shots of the leaders. Add to that the fact that he started strongly last week with a 66-67 to sit in third place at halfway, and limped home with 71-69 to finish 13th, it's a price we're unwilling to entertain.
Taylor Montgomery is next in the betting at 9/1 but his post round quotes concern us that he finds it hard to maintain his concentration over four days and much of that is probably down to the reliance on his putter.
It's very early days here and the value is further down the leaderboard.
Where is the value?
Seven of the last eight winners were at least two shots back after round one so we can't discount anyone under par yet.
Round 2 Bet
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