Event Info
Starts: 8th October 2020
Course: TPC Summerlin
Par: 71 (35-36)
Length: 7,255 yards
2019 Champion: Kevin Na
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -10pts
Pre-Event Six to Watch
T24th Cameron Smith - 80/1
T34th Adam Hadwin - 125/1
T43rd Brandt Snedeker - 140/1
MC Kyle Stanley - 200/1
T8th Justin Suh - 225/1
1st Martin Laird - 275/1
In-Play Bets: -10pts
9 October 2020 ( -2 Points)
1pt Each Way Nate Lashley (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - 80/1 @ Bet 365
10 October 2020 ( -4 Points)
1pt Each Way Sam Burns (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 150/1 @ Skybet
0.5pts Each Way Justin Suh (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 300/1 @ Skybet
0.5pts Each Way Scott Piercy (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 300/1 @ Skybet
11 October 2020 ( -4 Points)
1pt Each Way Kevin Na (1/4 1,2,3) - 25/1 @ Bet365
1pt Each Way Adam Hadwin (1/4 1,2,3) - 70/1 @ Betfred
Preview
Course Info
Course Designer: Bobby Weed with Fuzzy Zoeller
Tournament played here since: 1992
Type of Course: Resort/Desert course
Fairways: Generous, rough only 2 inches (previously three inches)
Greens: Large and slow Bentgrass greens (11.5 on stimpmeter)
Par 5's: 9th, 13th and 16th
Premium on: Accuracy
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals. It's also early in a new season on the PGA Tour so some players may be playing with a fresh mindset.
Be aware that Titleist have introduced a new prototype Pro V1 ball this week so players using that brand will likely be affected, positively or negatively.
Trends
Winning Score: Generally in excess of -20, but in 2017 we saw -9 win. With wind forecast at the weekend we're unlikely to see -20.
Course Form: The last two winners, Kevin Na and Bryson DeChambeau, both had top 7 finishes here prior to winning (Na was a past champion). However, we've seen in previous years that course debutants and players with no experience can flourish.
Recent Form: Each of the past five champions had recorded a top 20 in their previous three starts.
Favourites or Outsiders: The last three years have seen established names such as Na, DeChambeau and Cantlay. Prior to those three, Rod Pampling, Smylie Kaufman and Ben Martin took the title. Outsiders shouldn't be written off.
Stats Analysis
Driving: Neither Kevin Na nor Rod Pampling ranked inside the top 30 for SG: Off The Tee so it is possible to win if other areas compensate.
Approach: Neither Kevin Na or Patrick Cantlay ranked inside the top 20 for SG: Approach so again it is possible to win if other areas compensate.
Scrambling: Neither Strokes Gained: Around the green nor Scrambling stats give us any insight - there have been mixed results.
Putting: Three of the past six winners have ranked inside the top 10 for SG: Putting and three have ranked outside the top 30.
In Play
Tough Holes: The front 9 is considerably harder than the back. In particular, the 3rd and 8th are tricky holes.
Birdie Holes: The par 5s all play well under par and the 15th is a driveable par 4.
Fast or Slow Start: Only two winners in the past six years have opened up with a 66 or better (Bryson DeChambeau (66) and Rod Pampling (60)).
Six To Watch
Cameron hasn't played since the US Open but was playing nicely in the run up to that. We aren't overly concerned by his lack of action given he won at Sony earlier in the year after a couple of weeks off. He's finished 10th and 13th in his last two appearances here and the rough being trimmed this year will only help him further. Ranked just outside the world's top 50, he'll be keen to push on and attempt to add a second PGA Tour title to his resume.
Adam Hadwin - 125/1 @ Bet365
Adam hasn't been seen since making the cut at the US Open but don't let that put you off. As mentioned in his Player Profile, he often does his best work after a break. His sole PGA Tour win in 2017 came after a two week break and two of his last three runner up spots have also come after a break. He has two top 10's here in four starts so there's every reason to be optimistic.
Brandt Snedeker - 140/1 @ Bet365
Brandt was in the mix last week until a disappointing final round of 73 saw him fall back to 17th. However, we are willing to forgive that on account of the fact he was gushing about his game in last week's interviews, suggesting that he was as "excited" and "confident" about his game in "years." The driving accuracy stats back that up, placing him 2nd last week. He's only played here four times but has a 10th place finish as proof the test will suit.
Kyle Stanley - 200/1 @ Bet365
Kyle boasts a couple of top 10 finishes in this event. We can forgive last year's 48th place finish when he arrived in terrible form. A missed cut last week wasn't the best preparation either but on closer inspection he actually played very well in round two on his way to a 68. He's difficult to win with but worth considering at big odds. We should also mention that Beau Hossler just missed out in this category, his putting a slight worry despite excellent long game stats.
Justin Suh - 225/1 @ Bet365
The early value has gone on Justin but he's still an interesting price to keep an eye on in play. He lives in Vegas so this is a home game for him. His last appearance was at the Puntacana, where he posted a very credible 14th place. During that event he spoke of playing bounce games with Collin Morikawa and taking the money so we're happy to roll the dice (it is Vegas after all) on Justin.
Martin Laird - 275/1 @ Bet365
Martin has struggled in recent times but a return to the site of his first PGA Tour win in 2009 may be just the tonic he needs. He finished 28th last week, driving the ball really nicely (he ranked 14th SG: Tee To Green) to set himself up for this week and if he can find a bit of form with the putter he could well post a higher finish this week. We've seen Cink and Swafford win in recent weeks so we'll turn a blind eye to the fact he hasn't won since 2013.
In-play
In-Play Blog
11th October 2020
-20 Cantlay
-20 Laird
-18 Wolff
-18 Clark
-18 Harman
-18 Cook
It is poised nicely for a Sunday shootout in Vegas with bookmakers expecting Patrick Cantlay to close out at best price of 7/4. The 2017 champion will be on for his fourth consecutive top TWO finish and will be hard to beat if he brings his A-game.
Any followers who keep an eye on our 'Six to watch column' will be in for a nervy evening, as 275/1 Martin Laird heads into round 4 as joint leader. We wrote the following about him in our preview;
"Martin has struggled in recent times, but a return to the site of his first PGA Tour win in 2009 may be just the tonic he needs. He finished 28th last week, driving the ball really nicely (he ranked 14th SG: Tee To Green) to set himself up for this week and if he can find a bit of form with the putter he could well post a higher finish. We've seen Cink and Swafford win in recent weeks so we'll turn a blind eye to the fact he hasn't won since 2013."
No one is striking the ball better than him this week, The Scotsman ranks 1st for SG: Tee to green and SG: Approach and current odds of 5/1 seem perfectly fair.
We should expect either Cantlay or Laird to get to at least -24 today so it will be ask to those more than three shots back to leapfrog them. However, we saw yesterday with a 61 from Matthew Wolff and a 62 from Adam Hadwin that very low rounds are possible. We have identified two value prices should the leaders not go low.
1pt Each Way Kevin Na (1/4 1,2,3) - 25/1 @ Bet365
1pt Each Way Adam Hadwin (1/4 1,2,3) - 70/1 @ Betfred
Kevin has progressed nicely with rounds of 66-66-64 and if he could continue that trend with another 64 it would give him a decent chance of winning tonight. Last year's champion shot rounds of 62 and 61 here in 2019 so he has proven he has what it takes to go low. He is a fantastic closer nowadays and shouldn't be afraid to win if he can get off to a fast start.
Adam was one of our 'six to watch' at 125/1 and it was nice to see him make a move yesterday with a 62. Low rounds are notoriously hard to back up but Kevin Na showed last year that it's possible here. Adam finished 4th here in 2019 with a closing 63 which should give him good memories. He is player to follow when he gets hot and is the best value of the outsiders.
10th October 2020
-14 Cantlay
-14 Cook
-14 Laird
-14 Malnati
-14 Harman
-13 DeChambeau
It has bunched up at the Shriner's with five players tied for the top at -14. Bryson DeChambeau retains favouritism at the bookmakers at 3/1 with Cantlay in to 7/2. They remain the pair to beat but significant wind is forecast today and we may see the later groups find it harder in blustery conditions.
We identified Martin Laird at 275/1 before the start of the event as one to watch and those of you who backed him are in a good position now as he trades at 20/1. Yesterday's in-play pick, Nate Lashley, remains in the hunt too at -12. It remains all to play for.
With the weather set to play a key part in today's proceedings it could pay to back those players with earlier tee times. The wind is expected to pick up to 14/15mph by 4pm local time compared to 6mph at 11am. With that in mind we have selected three outside picks at -9 in the hope one or more of them can post a score whilst the wind is down.
1pt Each Way Sam Burns (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 150/1 @ Skybet
0.5pts Each Way Justin Suh (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 300/1 @ Skybet
0.5pts Each Way Scott Piercy (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 300/1 @ Skybet
We believe the forecast wind gives the players at -9 the opportunity to make ground on the leaders. With that in mind, we have selected players with tee times before 10.30am, a full 2 hours and 30 mins before the final group tees off. This should see them play the majority of their round before the wind really starts to pick up mid-afternoon.
Sam is a winner in waiting and having the opportunity to come from off the pace will suit. He has played nicely off the tee this week and if he can sharpen up his iron play he'll be able to move up the leaderboard.
Scott Piercy has amassed four top 10 finishes here over the years and has the experience to deal with today's conditions. He's had a poor year to date but ranks 15th SG: Tee To Green this week so there's a lot to like about his price.
Justin was one of our Six To Watch at the start of the week. He lives locally and will be used to playing here when the wind picks up.
9th October 2020
-9 DeChambeau
-8 Cantlay
-8 Cook
-8 Varner
-8 Harrington
-8 Lashley
It's a case of deja vu at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open as Bryson DeChambeau leads the way with Patrick Cantlay in in hot pursuit. The pair go off at 2/1 and 5/1 respectively, the next best being 25/1.
It's hard to see past either of them given their tremendous record around here and their love for the course. Perhaps the most surprising thing from yesterday's first round is the lack of a 'Without Bryson and Cantlay' market!
We have one each way play though as we wait for that market to appear.
1pt Each Way Nate Lashley (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - 80/1 @ Bet 365
Nate shot a fine score of 63 yesterday playing in the afternoon. His win last year at the Rocket Mortgage Classic included two 63s so we are confident in his ability to go low this week. We also like the fact he's performed well on coastal tracks with a bit of wind forecast over the weekend. He was 4th at Puntacana a few weeks ago, again proving his wind credentials, and played nicely yesterday too, ranking 10th SG: Tee To Green. At 80/1 with an early tee time today, he's worth an interest for the each way places at least.
