Preview
Course Info
Course Designer: John Fought (heavy Donald Ross influence)
Tournament played here since: 2014
Type of Course: Inland, parkland course
Fairways: Reasonably wide
Greens: Small and Tricky Bermuda greens
Par 5's: 3rd, 5th, 11th and 14th
Premium on: Driving
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
It's early in a new season on the PGA Tour so some players may be playing with a fresh mindset.
Several players played in the President's Cup last week. They may be suffer a hangover from last week's efforts.
Weather Forecast
A dry lead up to the tournament should mean the course plays firm.
Thursday
Sunny. Max wind 12mph
Friday
Sunny. Max wind 10mph
Saturday
Sunny. Max wind 9mph
Sun
Sunny. Max wind 8mph
Trends
Winning Score
The eight previous editions of the Sanderson Farms Championship have been won with scores ranging between -16 and -22. Sam Burns won on the latter score last year.
Course Form
Of the last eight winners, only Sam Burns and Sebastian Munoz had anything remotely resembling previous course form. Munoz was the only winner to have made the cut in the year prior, having placed 50th in 2018. Five of the eight winners have been course debutants.
Recent Form
Five of the last eight champions had recorded at least one top 25 finish in their previous two starts. Burns arrived after a strong FedEx Cup run of 18-8-21.
Favourites or Outsiders
Six of the last eight winners have been first time winners on the PGA Tour. Given we've had winners such as Peter Malnati and Cody Gribble in recent times, it's definitely an event to consider outsiders.
Korn Ferry Tour
Four of the last eight champions had only just graduated to the PGA Tour from the Korn Ferry Tour. Note - there were no Korn Ferry Tour graduates in 2020 due to Covid.
Stats Analysis
Driving
Five of the past six winners ranked inside the top 10 for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee, including Burns who was 1st last year. Ryan Armour won in 2017 despite ranking 39th SG: Off The Tee.
Approach
Each of the past six winners has ranked inside the top 21 for Strokes Gained: Approach. Burns ranked 2nd last year.
Scrambling
Neither Strokes Gained: Around the Green nor Scrambling stats give us any insight - there have been mixed results.
Putting
Burns and Sergio Garcia won the last two events with modest putting displays but most winners here putt well.
In Play
Tough Holes
The 6th is the toughest on the front nine. On the back nine, 10 and 16 are the trickiest.
Birdie Holes
The par 5s all play under par and the 15th is a driveable par 4.
Fast or Slow Start
Three of the past eight champions have started with rounds of -3 or worse. Cody Gribble actually started with a round of one over par in 2016.
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers. If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.
Davis Thompson 80/1
Davis is a rising star coming off a strong season on the KFT which included a win and three other top 6 finishes. He began his PGA Tour career well with a top 10 at Fortinet with all aspects of his game in great shape. Had an invite to this event last year where he finished 35th place on his debut, he arrives a much stronger player this week. Had odds of 100/1+ remained we would have backed him.
Vincent Normann 175/1
Normann is another emerging talent who's power off the tee is his biggest asset. He had a top 40 on his PGA Opener at Fortinet where he ranked 4th off the tee. Another who had some strong results on the KFT last year and also has plenty of solid finishes on the DP World Tour from 2021.
Chad Ramey 400/1
Chad is a Mississippi boy and describes this as a home game. A winner this past year on the PGA Tour, his recent form has been poor though and he missed the cut last time out at the Fortinet. However, that was attributable to one poor round with his driver and we're prepared to set that aside. His odds were attractive.
In-play
Sanderson Farms Championship In-Play Blog
2 October 2022, 1:25pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Hubbard |
-15 |
| Hughes |
-14 |
| Straka |
-12 |
| Higgo |
-12 |
| Stallings |
-12 |
| Bradley |
-11 |
| Hardy |
-11 |
| Burmester |
-10 |
| Grillo |
-10 |
Round 3 Summary
Mar Hubbard leapfrogged the leaders with a bogey free 65, only bettered by Keegan Bradley who went round in one less shot. Mackenzie Hughes is Hubbard's closest challenger, one behind
Round 4 Weather
Sunny with the wind picking up to 9mph.
Notable Round 3 Quotes
"It’ll be a lot of fun, someone I’m comfortable with. He’s a great guy, easy to get along with, so it’ll be a fun day … I don’t think either of us would have ill will towards the other one if they won or I won or whatever the case may be. We’ll have a fun battle tomorrow, and whatever happens, we’ll still be friends the next day." MacKenzie Hughes
"I had a hole in my foot this whole week, and I didn’t get to practice at all last week so I was just kind of coming here trying to get ready for Vegas (Shriners Children’s Open), to be honest." Mark Hubbard
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Hubbard and Hughes seem to have a good relationship. The pair's friendship dates back from the Canada Tour where they went head to head in the final round of the 2013 Wildfire Invitational. Hubbard got the better of Hughes that day so the Canadian will be seeking revenge today. The fact that they get on very well should go in their favour and may relax them under extreme pressure.
Hubbard is still seeking his first PGA Tour win but the fact he had no expectations this week following a foot injury takes a little bit of pressure off him, seeing this week as free hit. He has let multiple winning opportunities slip on your though and 9/4 isn't tempting us.
Hughes is a winner on tour though hasn't won since 2016 at the RSM Classic. He has not contended for almost a year but he was impressive at the 2021 RSM, shooting a 62 from a starting position of 5th to finish 2nd. He also led the US Open that year which was a complete disaster, shooting 77 to finish 15th. He is preferred over Hubbard at the odds but we're also happy to pass at 10/3.
The chasing pack at 12 under are all established winners. Stallings may be a bit deflated by his finish yesterday but still poses a big threat, as does Straka and Higgo who have won not too long ago.
Where is the value?
Scott Stallings and Garrick Higgo were under consideration but we were hoping to see a little bit more juice in their prices. We're already on Sepp Straka so will be cheering him on optimistically. There is one two-ball bet which looks worth a small play.
Round 4 Bet
- 1.5pts Cory Gribble to beat Taylor Montgomery 11/5 @ Boylesports
Gribble is a past champion here where he won with a final round 66 in 2016. That should provide him with good memories and he has been impressive over the last two days, shooting 67 both days. In particular, his approach play improved yesterday and he has been driving the ball well all week. Montgomery is a future winner on tour but didn't show his best stuff on Sunday last year on the KFT, shooting better than 69 once in eleven attempts.
1 October 2022, 8am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Detry |
-10 |
| Hughes |
-10 |
| Straka |
-9 |
| Hubbard |
-8 |
| Stallings |
-8 |
| Higgo |
-8 |
| Hardy |
-7 |
| Riley |
-7 |
| Jaeger |
-7 |
Round 2 Summary
Thomas Detry sett he early pace but MacKenzie Hughes, playing in the afternoon, birdied his last two holes to join him. The afternoon starters made the most of the warmer temperatures and four of the top six played in the AM-PM draw.
Round 3 Weather
Sunny with the wind picking up to 8mph.
Notable Round 2 Quotes
"Just been working really hard. Yeah, I started with a new coach a couple weeks ago in Napa and working on a couple small things which have been kind of showing on the golf course, and I've been putting in a lot of work in the gym and on the range to increase my club head speed and ball speed, so that's been showing up, as well. Just a combination of a few different things, but been working hard at it, and it's always nice when you put in hard work and you get some good results." MacKenzie Hughes
"I love Bermuda greens. I've always read them pretty well, and I think they're -- especially now, these are such a good surface that they compete with just about any bent." Sepp Straka
"I think I'm kind of at a place now again where I can just focus on my golf. I'm out of the limelight a little bit. I was kind of -- everything was new. Yeah, I feel like I'm in a good spot where I can kind of build some confidence and start to play good again." Garrick Higgo
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Thomas Detry is 5/1 favourite but that's a price we'd be happy to lay. The Belgian has yet to win on the DP World Tour and hasn't always impressed when in contention over in Europe. His post round press conference was also interesting as it indicated he's conscious of the fact he only has limited starts on the PGA Tour due to his status. That may weigh on his mind over the weekend and we could see him focus on a big finish rather than a win.
Sepp Straka and MacKenzie Hughes are available at 15/2 and they make much more appeal. Both have won on the PGA Tour before and both are striking the ball nicely. Hughes shot a best of the day 63 in round two and has shown in the past he is capable of backing up a low round. Straka won the Honda Classic and narrowly missed out on the FedEx St Jude Championship last year.
Where is the value?
The last five winners of this event have been inside the top 10 at this stage of proceedings. Sam Burns (20/1) made appeal given he's had a poor week on the greens so far but we're focusing on those players at six under par or better.
Round 3 Bets
- 2pts Win Only Sepp Straka 15/2 @ General
Straka was one over par for his opening nine holes on Thursday but has played his last 27 holes in ten under par. He attributed that slow start to the fact he hadn't practiced much in the off season and stated he "didn't know what to expect" when he teed it up this week. He's clearly knocked any rust off and we like him to make further progress over the weekend. He ranks 10th in SG: Tee to Green so far this week. He's been more accurate off the tee than those around him at the top of the leaderboard and that should bode well for the weekend.
30 September 2022, 10am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Riley |
-6 |
| Gordon |
-6 |
| Yuan |
-5 |
| Hubbard |
-5 |
| Detry |
-5 |
| Putnam |
-5 |
| Matthews |
-5 |
| Cone |
-5 |
| Bezuidenhout |
-5 |
Round 1 Summary
Home boy Davis Riley and Will Gordon sneaked past the morning pace setters on 6 under par. Pre-tournament favourite is four shots back of the lead.
Round 2 Weather
Sunny with the wind picking up to 10mph at around 2pm. Slight advantage to the morning starters but not much in it.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Davis Riley is now 6/1 favourite and rightly so given his love for this tournament. He calls this a 5th major for himself and will have all the support going forward but that itself brings a lot of pressure, especially as he is searching for his first PGA Tour title. His score was largely built with the putter yesterday but he is a class act and would be no surprise to see him leading at the end of today.
Four players are next in the betting at around the 12/1 mark - Co-leader Will Gordon, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Sam Burns and Thomas Detry. None of these players are catching our eye at the moment but if pushed, Bezuidenhout looks the man least likely to go away after a strong tee to green display.
Where is the value?
It's early days and with five places on offer, there is plenty of each way value out there.
Round 2 Bets
-
- 0.5pts Each Way Robby Shelton 150/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
Shelton is five shots aback so has some work to do but an outstanding Korn Ferry Tour year where he now has four wins has put him on our radar this year. Shelton has a previous best of 28th here but improved as the event went on and he can do the same here.
- 0.5pts Each Way Chesson Hadley 200/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-5)
Hadley was in our thoughts pre-event, a runner up here in the past and two top 10's in his last four starts on tour. He has started nicely with a 70 and ranked 3rd tee to green. Take anything over 150/1 for Hadley this morning.
- 0.5pts Each Way CT Pan 200/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-5)
Pan is on the same score despite a poor day on the greens. He has a solid record here, finishing top 12 in the last two years so it clearly suits his eye. A PGA tour winner who we trust more than most in contention, again anything over 150/1 looks like value.
