Event Info
Starts: 30th September 2021
Course: Country Club of Jackson, MS
Par: 72
Length: 7,461 yards
2020 Champion: Sergio Garcia
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -9.07pts
Pre-Event Bets: -9pts
1pt EW Aaron Wise 50/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-8)
0.75pts EW MacKenzie Hughes 80/1 @ Betway (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Brendon Todd 100/1 @ Betway (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Greyson Sigg 125/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Nate Lashley 200/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-7)
1.5pts Win Only Paul Barjon Top Continental European 22/1 @ Skybet
0.5pts EW Peter Malnati to be First Round Leader 90/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-6)
In-Play Bets: -0.07pts
1 October 2021(+3.93pts)
1pt EW Gary Woodland 33/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-5)
0.5pts EW Cameron Young to be 2nd Round Leader 66/1 @ Betfair (1/4 1-4)
0.5pts EW Hayden Buckley to be 2nd Round Leader 66/1 @ Unibet (1/5 1-4)
2 October 2021(-2pts)
1pt EW Kurt Kitayama 35/1 @ Betfair (1/4 1-4)
3 October 2021(-2pts)
1pt Each Way Will Zalatoris 66/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-3)
Preview
Course Info
Course Designer: John Fought (heavy Donald Ross influence)
Tournament played here since: 2014
Type of Course: Inland, parkland course
Fairways: Reasonably wide
Greens: Small and Tricky Bermuda greens
Par 5's: 3rd, 5th, 11th and 14th
Premium on: Putting
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals. It's also early in a new season on the PGA Tour so some players may be playing with a fresh mindset.
Trends
Winning Score
The seven previous PGA Tour tournaments have been won with scores ranging between -16 and -21.
Course Form
Of the last seven winners, only Sebastian Munoz had anything remotely resembling previous course form. He was the only winner to have made the cut in the year prior, having placed 50th in 2018. Five of the seven winners have been course debutants.
Recent Form
Four of the last seven champions had recorded a top 25 in their previous two starts.
Favourites or Outsiders
Six of the last seven winners have been first time winners on the PGA Tour. Given we've had winners such as Peter Malnati and Cody Gribble in recent times, it's definitely an event to favour outsiders.
Korn Ferry Tour
With the exception of last year's winner, Sergio Garcia, every past champion has made at least two appearances on the Korn Ferry Tour in the calendar year they won. Four of the seven champions had only just graduated to the PGA Tour from the Korn Ferry Tour. Note - there were no Korn Ferry Tour graduates last year due to Covid.
Stats Analysis
Driving
Four of the past five winners ranked inside the top 10 for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee. Ryan Armour won in 2017 despite ranking 39th SG: Off The Tee.
Approach
Each of the past five winners has ranked inside the top 21 for Strokes Gained: Approach. However, only two of those five ranked inside the top 15 (Ryan Armour (2017 - 3rd) and Sergio Garcia (2020 - 3rd)).
Scrambling
Neither Strokes Gained: Around the green nor Scrambling stats give us any insight - there have been mixed results.
Putting
Sergio Garcia is the first player to have won having ranked worse than 7th for Strokes Gained: Putting (he ranked 35th). A hot putter is generally essential.
In Play
Tough Holes
The 6th is the toughest on the front nine. On the back nine, 10 and 16 are the trickiest.
Birdie Holes
The par 5s all play under par and the 15th is a driveable par 4.
Fast or Slow Start
Three of the past seven champions have started with rounds of -3 or worse. Cody Gribble actually started with a round of one over par in 2016.
In-play
Sanderson Farms Championship In-Play Blog
3rd October 2021, 5.00pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Theegala | -18 |
| Tringale | -17 |
| Burns | -17 |
| Young | -17 |
| McCarthy | -17 |
| Two Players Tied | -16 |
Sahith Theegala has retained the lead but has four players in hot pursuit one off the pace.
One of which is Sam Burns who could hardly hole a putt the first two days and he looks a big threat. The bookies rate him 10/3 favourite and given those around him it looks more than fair.
Despite being 68th in the world, Tringale is still winless on tour and we couldn't back him at odds of 5/1. Likewise, McCarthy has no PGA Tour titles but has won on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2018. Odds of 8/1 make no appeal.
Our 50/1 pre-event selection Aaron Wise is the closest PGA Tour winner aside from Burns and we're hopeful he makes his move today.
One player further back looks too big in the betting so we will add him to the squad.
Round 4 Bet
- 1pt Each Way Will Zalatoris 66/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-3)
Zalatoris struggled to perform with a share of the lead yesterday and is now 5 shots behind Theegala. However, a 61 on Friday highlights his scoring potential and given the CV's of the leaders, he could show his class and come through. There's been a lot of low rounds this week so don't be surprised to see a very different leaderboard at the end of the day.
2nd October 2021, 2.00pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Zalatoris | -13 |
| Watney | -13 |
| Theegala | -13 |
| Young | -12 |
| Buckley | -12 |
| Sloan | -11 |
A sensational 61 from Will Zalatoris saw him claim a share of the lead at the Sanderson Farms Championship. The young American is now an 11/4 shot to convert and win his first PGA Tour title.
With over 145ft of putts made yesterday, Zalatoris broke our hearts when he pipped yesterday's 2nd Round Leader tips, Cameron Young and Hayden Buckley, to the morning lead at 13 under par. Still, both players returned a nice each way profit from yesterday's outlay.
The leader has gained over 6 shots on the field on the greens so far this week and it's hard to see him sustaining that. Zalatoris ranked 122nd in SG: Putting last season and despite his comments in the post round press conference that he's a "productive" putter, there have to be doubts he can continue to hole the putts as he has done.
Tied at the top with Zalatoris are two players whose careers are going in different directions. Sahith Theegala (7/1) is widely regarded as a player of significant promise. Nick Watney (16/1) is a six time winner on Tour but hasn't won since 2012 and hasn't recorded a top 10 finish anywhere in over two years. Neither player represents a huge amount of value in our book and we're prepared to look further down the leaderboard.
Each of the last five winners has been inside the top 10 at this stage, with two of the last five winners having led through 36 holes. With that in mind, we aren't looking past the players at -10.
There is a chance play will be interrupted in the afternoon with thunderstorms. Wind should peak at 8mph,
Round 3 Bet
- 1pt Each Way Kurt Kitayama 35/1 @ Betfair (1/4 1-4)
It's easy to forget that Kurt is a two time winner on the European Tour as he's had a quiet couple of years. He's playing really nicely tee to green this week, ranking 22nd for SG: Off The Tee and 4th for SG: Approach. Capable of making plenty of birdies, he's only three shots back going into the weekend and will fancy his chances of catching the leaders given the way he's playing. Odds of 35/1 are a shade too generous.
1st October 2021, 10.15am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Theegala | -8 |
| Watney | -7 |
| Varner | -7 |
| Sloan | -6 |
| Kitayama | -6 |
| S W Kim | -6 |
Youngster Sahith Theegala leads the way after the opening round of the Sanderson Farms Championship. A bogey free 64 in the morning was enough to lead at the end of the day.
Theegala is a highly regarded talent, having won the Nicklaus, Hogan and Haskins awards in 2020. The standout college player of 2020, he reached number three in the world amateur golf rankings.
A strong showing at the Korn Ferry Tour Finals saw him gain a card of the PGA Tour this season and given his enormous potential, there's no reason to think he can't kick on over the next three days. In Theegala's favour is the fact this has been a tournament where first round leaders have been able to sustain their hot start. Two winners in the last four years have won here wire to wire (Ryan Armour in 2017 and Cameron Champ in 2018).
Whilst we're not backing against Theegala, odds of 14/1 are a little short for us to get involved given his relative inexperience in contention.
Harold Varner is the only player in the top three who played in the afternoon and he finds himself 10/1 favourite. The American has often crumbled under pressure but we may well see a different Harold this weekend given his wife his due to give birth next week. A new addition to the family can often give a player the Nappy Factor and it'll be interesting to see if this spurs him on. We're happy to leave him alone at 10/1 though.
Although we'e seen first round leaders convert here, we've also seen players get hot over the final three rounds and make up for a slow start. Cody Gribble found himslef outside the top 100 after the opening 18 holes in 2016. Latterly, Sergio Garcia (2020) and Sebastian Munoz (2019) both won when outside the top 15 after the first round.
Conditions will be dry with a gentle breeze for the third round. The wind is expected to peak around 8mph.
Round 2 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Gary Woodland 33/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-5)
Gary has struggled ove the past 18 months with a mixture of injuries and lack of access to his coaching team. He's now injury free and has been able to see his team again. A recent swing coach switch from Butch Harmon to Mark Blackburn appears to be agreeing with him as his long game was in strong shape in the opening round. Inside the top 20 for both SG: Off The Tee and SG: Approach, he ranked 4th for SG: Tee To Green.
- 0.5pts Each Way Cameron Young to be 2nd Round Leader 66/1 @ Betfair (1/4 1-4)
- 0.5pts Each Way Hayden Buckley to be 2nd Round Leader 66/1 @ Unibet (1/5 1-4)
With plenty of birdies available, we're backing two young players who are capable of making a 2nd round charge and topping the leaderboard at the end of day two. Cameron Young won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2021 whilst Buckley managed one win. Both players finished their first rounds with a hot run of scoring (Buckley playing his last eight holes in -6 and Young playing his last six holes in -5) and both are backed to carry that momentum into today.
