Event Info
Starts: 1st October 2020
Course: Country Club of Jackson
Par: 72 (36-36)
Length: 7,461 yards
2019 Champion: Sebastian Munoz
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: +16pts
Pre-Event Six to Watch
T6th Denny McCarthy - 70/1
T6th Kristoffer Ventura - 80/1
3rd JT Poston 90/1
MC Nate Lashley - 125/1
MC Davis Riley - 125/1
MC Robert Streb - 250/1
In-Play Bets: +16pts
3 October 2020 ( +18 Points)
1pt Each Way Peter Malnati (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 100/1 @ Betfred
1pt Win Only MJ Daffue - 25/1 @ Bet Victor
4 October 2020 ( -2 Points)
1pt Each Way Tyler McCumber (1/4 1,2,3) - 40/1 @ Betfred
Preview
Course Info
Course Designer: John Fought (heavy Donald Ross influence)
Tournament played here since: 2014
Type of Course: Inland, parkland course
Fairways: Reasonably wide
Greens: Small and Tricky Bermuda greens
Par 5's: 3rd, 5th, 11th and 14th
Premium on: Putting
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals. It's also early in a new season on the PGA Tour so some players may be playing with a fresh mindset.
Trends
Winning Score: The six previous PGA Tour tournaments have been won with scores ranging between -16 and -21.
Course Form: Of the last six winners only Sebastian Munoz had anything remotely resembling previous course form. He was the only winner to have made the cut in the year prior, having placed 50th in 2018. Four of the six winners have been course debutants.
Recent Form: Four of the last six champions had recorded a top 25 in their previous two starts.
Favourites or Outsiders: The last six winners have been first time winners on the PGA Tour. Given we've had winners such as Peter Malnati and Cody Gribble in recent times it's definitely an event to favour outsiders.
Korn Ferry Tour: Every past champion has made at least two appearances on the Korn Ferry Tour in the calendar year they won. Four of the six champions had only just graduated to the PGA Tour from the Korn Ferry Tour.
Stats Analysis
Driving: Three of the past four winners ranked inside the top 10 for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee. Ryan Armour won in 2017 despite ranking 39th SG: Off The Tee.
Approach: Each of the past four winners has ranked inside the top 21 for Strokes Gained: Approach. It should be noted that only Ryan Armour was inside the top 15 (he was 3rd).
Scrambling: Neither Strokes Gained: Around the green nor Scrambling stats give us any insight - there have been mixed results.
Putting: No player has ever won having ranked worse than 7th for Strokes Gained: Putting. A hot putter is essential.
In Play
Tough Holes: The 6th is the toughest on the front nine. On the back nine, 16 and 18 are the trickiest.
Birdie Holes: The par 5s all play under par and the 15th is a driveable par 4.
Fast or Slow Start: Three of the past six champions have started with rounds of -3 or worse. Cody Gribble actually started with a round of one over par in 2016.
Six To Watch
Denny McCarthy - 70/1 @ Bet365
Although course form isn't essential here, we are encouraged by Denny's finishes here over the past two years. An 18th place last year followed a 7th in 2018 so we know he can handle this week's test. He ranked 1st for SG: Putting in 2020 on the PGA Tour and he also ranked 1st here for SG: Putting in 2018. In a week where we need a hot putter he's a sound selection, even if his putter has been cold the past few weeks. Finally, for those of you who believe in bio-rhythm, Denny's sole professional win came towards the end of September 2018.
Kristoffer Ventura - 80/1 @ William Hill
Kristoffer is a player we rate extremely highly. He ticks the box as a player who has played Korn Ferry events in 2020 and he's very much a player we expect to win on the PGA Tour in the coming years. He won twice in 2019 on the Korn Ferry Tour, was 7th at the Safeway Open several starts ago and at 80/1, represents a bit of value. It's worth mentioning that he recorded top 21 finishes at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and Nationwide Children's Hospital Championship in 2020, two events that correlate with this event.
JT Poston 90/1 - 888Sport
JT opened with a 64 last year on his way to an 11th place finish. He's played here four times without missing a cut and he's a player who we like to win again in a lesser event. His recent form is patchy but he's a player who often pops up in the midst of a poor run of form.
Nate Lashley - 125/1 @ Bet365
Nate is a player to have onside when he is on form. He has five wins as a professional and three of these have followed a top eight finish. He placed 4th at Puntacana last week and there's every reason to think he can go well again this week on a track that suits him. He was 20th last time he played here in 2018 and we should also keep in mind Nate won the Rocket Mortgage Classic in 2018 at a course designed by Donald Ross. Country Club of Jackson was not designed by Ross but was heavily influenced by him so Nate should thrive here this week.
Davis Riley - 125/1 @ Bet365
We've seen the impact those players coming from the Korn Ferry Tour have had here and it would be remiss of us not to include Mississippi native Davis Riley. Having won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour this past season he's a young and hungry player who posted a 39th place finish here last year in his only appearance. Odds of 125/1 are in lieu of his poor recent form but one of his two wins this season came after a missed cut so that doesn't overly concern us.
Robert Streb - 250/1 @ Betfred
Robert comes into this week off the back of a 21st place finish at Puntacana. He has not finished worse than 26th in his last three starts in this event so we know he can go well here. He has played several Korn Ferry events this season and fits the bill of a player looking to take advantage of these weaker tournaments. At big odds he's worth keeping an eye on.
In-play
In-Play Blog
4th October 2020
-14 Davis
-14 Poston
-14 Garcia
-13 Ventura
-13 Snedekar
Keegan Bradley's one over par 73 has let a lot of players back in and we seem set for a Sunday shootout. Cameron Davis' 63 showed exactly what's possible and if we are assuming -20 is a reasonable target anyone as far back as -10 shouldn't be discounted.
You could make a case for any of the top five but at the same time there is reason for doubt also. Garcia and Snedekar are proven winners although neither has won on the PGA Tour for a couple of years. J.T. Poston won the Wyndham Championship last year in impressive fashion but has not done much since.
Cameron Davis has a Korn Ferry Tour and an Australian Open victory to his name and, like Ventura, fits the profile of the winners of this event - a first time winner who has recently graduated from the KFT.
Given the way the leaderboard changed yesterday it is possible we will see a similar movement again. Wise, McCarthy and Bradley are all capable of making a charge from -12 but it is Tyler Mccumber who gets our attention at -11.
1pt Each Way Tyler McCumber (1/4 1,2,3) - 40/1 @ Betfred
Tyler has progressively improved with rounds of 70, 69, 66 and it is only really his putter that has stopped him from being closer to the lead. He ranks 5th SG: Off the tee and 6th SG: approach the green this week - two stats we identified that winners here all do well in.
He showed last week he is not scared to win after a final round 66 to place 2nd, only losing out to a strong finish by Hudson Swafford. Add in the fact he won three times in four weeks on the Canadian Tour in 2018 and this is a guy who can hold form and is a serious danger when he gains momentum.
3rd October 2020
-13 Bradley
-11 Poston
-11 Hoffman
-10 Daffue
-9 McCarthy
-9 Ventura
Keegan Bradley has taken charge at the Sandersons Farm Championship and has also taken bookmaker favouritism at 7/2. Keegan's played nicely so far, ranking in the top 12 for Strokes Gained: Approach and SG: Off The Tee. Perhaps most surprisingly he ranks 2nd in SG: Putting, a category we'd not normally associate him with.
Keegan was glowing about his game, the course and the Bermuda greens when interviewed after his round. Indeed he stated that, "things are clicking right now, and I love the course and everything about it." Tellingly, he also suggested his putting hadn't felt as good since the last time he won at Aronimink.
The case against Keegan rests with his record when leading. He only has a 3 ⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating and has yet to win on the PGA Tour when in front. Despite his confidence on the greens, we struggle to see him maintaining his putting stats over the weekend. At the price, he's not one to back with two rounds to go.
Whilst a couple of winners have converted here from halfway (Armour and Champ), we've also seen players come from five and six back. We could well see someone from the pack emerge with a hot putter.
Those of you who backed our Six to Watch are in a good position as you have three players in the top five (including ties). Denny McCarthy, Kristoffer Ventura and J.T Poston go into the weekend with good chances.
1pt Each Way Peter Malnati (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 100/1 @ Betfred
1pt Win Only MJ Daffue - 25/1 @ Bet Victor
At first glance it might seem odd selecting a player who hasn't had a top 5 finish since 2018 but there are reasons to think Peter could sneak up the leaderboard. He was six shots behind at the halfway stage when he won in 2015 so can draw on those memories. He's also putting well again this week, ranking 11th SG: Putting. At triple figure odds he's worth an each way play. Make sure you take the five each way places on offer rather than the four.
MJ is a speculative play but we can't resist having a point on him for several reasons. Firstly, his son was born six weeks ago so he possesses the Nappy Factor (Keith Elliott's idea that a golfer's performance is boosted due to a new birth). MJ, 31, has struggled with personal issues for a few years but has overcome these and is now showing some form. It should be noted that he started well at the Safeway Open a few weeks ago before tanking over the weekend. That said, he's a prolific Monday qualifier (as he did this week), having been involved in several playoffs to capture those spots. Let's not forget we've seen some rank outsiders win here so it's worth a small investment.
