Event Info
Starts: 10th September 2020
Course: Silverado Resort and Spa, Napa Valley, California.
Par: 72 (36-36)
Length: 7,166 yards
2019 Champion: Cameron Champ
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -12pts
Pre-Event Six to Watch
T61st Will Gordon - 66/1
MC Cameron Tringale - 66/1
MC Maverick McNealy - 66/1
T46th Carlos Ortiz - 70/1
MC Troy Merritt - 80/1
MC Scott Piercy - 100/1
In-Play Bets: -12pts
13 September 2020 ( -4 Points)
2pts Win Only Kevin Streelman - 33/1 @ William Hill
1pt Win Only Chez Reavie - 66/1 @ Betfair
1pt Win Only Xinjun Zhang - 80/1 @ William Hill
12 September 2020 ( -4 Points)
1pt Each Way Kristoffer Ventura (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 200/1 @ William Hill
1pt Each Way Sepp Straka (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 200/1 @ Bet365
11 September 2020 ( -4 Points)
1pt Each Way Joonhyung Kim (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - 50/1 @ Bet365
1pt Each Way Scott Harrington (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - 80/1 @ 888Sport
Preview
Course Info
Stroke Index 2019: 71.24
Tournament played here since: 2014
Type of Course: Classic, tree lined.
Fairways: Tight, tree lined.
Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass, not too penal.
Greens: Small, Narrow, Average Pace, Undulating, Poa-annua.
Water: In-play on 2 holes, 11 and 15.
Par 5's: 5th, 9th, 16th and 18th
Premium on: Strong iron play and scrambling.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals. It's also the start of a new season on the PGA Tour so some players may be playing with a fresh mindset.
Trends
Winning Score: Between -14 and -18 for the last 5 years.
Course Form: 3 of the last 6 winners were debutants and Kevin Tway had never recorded a top 40 in numerous attempts beforehand. Brendan Steele had recorded finishes of 7-21-17 before he won twice. Preferred but not essential.
Recent Form: Only Emilliano Grillo had posted top 10 finishes in his previous 3 events before winning. Form not essential.
Favourites or Outsiders: 4 of the last 5 winners have started at 75 or above on the exchange, including last year's winner Cameron Champ who started at 200. Outsiders should be chanced here, especially given the field strength.
Stats Analysis
Greens in Regulation: All 6 winners were in the top 25 for GIR.
Driving Distance: Two of the last 6 winners were 1st for driving distance - but the other four were outside the top 20.
Driving Accuracy: Three of the last 6 winners were top 10 for driving accuracy. It is slightly preferred over distance.
Scrambling: The last two winners were 1st for scrambling and all of the last 6 winners have been in the top 10. It seems to be a key stat.
Putting: Only one of the last 6 winners has been in top 10 for putts per GIR.
In Play
Tough Holes: 13-15 play difficult. 2nd is a 240-yard par 3.
Birdie Holes: 16-18 is an easy stretch. 5 and 9 are reachable par 5's.
Fast or Slow Start: It is possible to win from off the pace. Cameron Champ led by three after round 3 last year en route to victory, but the 5 previous winners all began round 3 at least 2 behind. Steele was 9 back after 36 holes in 2016 and Grillo was 6 back after 36 holes in 2015. Fast start not essential.
Six To Watch
Will Gordon - 66/1 @ Bet365
Will has finished 27th and 41st in his last two starts and although he hasn't played in a few weeks, his best finish of the season came on the first event back after lockdown where he finished 3rd at the Travelers Championship. He isn't usually known for his driving accuracy but it was interesting he was 13th for that category on his last start at the Wyndham Championship. One of the longest drivers on tour and 4th for greens in regulation this year, if he can piece it all together, he could go very well.
Cameron Tringale - 66/1 @ BetVictor
Cameron is interesting for several reasons this week. Firstly, conditions are unusual at Silverado. Fires in the area have meant the area is dark and smoky and conditions have been described by Cameron Davis as similar to the 2019 Australian Open. Interestingly, Cameron played that event and did well to finish 5th so can use that to his advantage. Secondly, he played nicely at his last start at The Northern Trust, securing a 29th place finish with good driving accuracy stats. Finally, he has a solid bank of form here and can push on this year.
Maverick McNealy - 66/1 @Bet365
Maverick has thrown in a couple of impressive performances since lockdown - 8th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and 7th at the Barracuda Championship. He has made his last two cuts and also made all three cuts at Silverado. He is an improving player and with scrambling a key stat this week, 30th place in that category for the season is an added bonus. Maverick can step up in a weaker field here.
Carlos Ortiz - 70/1 @ William Hill
We have picked another top scrambler here, the Mexican is ranked 29th for the season long stats. He was also 63rd for SG: Tee to green and 84th SG: Putting so all aspects of his game are in good shape. He comes into this week after a nice 25th place finish at the BMW Championship and finished 40th here last year. Carlos is a player we expect to see win soon, probably in a lesser field like this.
Troy Merritt - 80/1 @Bet365
Troy boasts a 4th place finish here in 2018 and comes into this week off the back of a 29th place finish at The Northern Trust. He ranked 21st in Driving Accuracy that week and that should stand him in good stead this week. He's a player we think is capable of a third win on the PGA Tour and given the quality of field he could be a bit of value at 80/1.
Scott Piercy - 100/1 @Bet365
It hasn't been the best six months for Scott as he was dropped by his sponsors at the start of March after inappropriate posts on social media. He's struggled since golf resumed but a 29th place finish at The Northern Trust hinted that he may be turning the corner. Crucially he was 11th SG: Off the tee and were it not for one poor round he would have been in the top 20 for Strokes Gained: Approach also that week. He has a 3rd place finish here in 2016 and as a three-time PGA Tour winner, he's worth chancing.
In-play
In Play
13th September 2020
-16 Stuard
-16 Hahn
-16 Percy
-15 Burns
-15 Higgs
-15 Ventura
-14 Four players tied
A disappointing round by Sam Burns has opened up the event and there are now 28 players within four shots of the lead. Yesterdays' 80/1 selection Kristoffer Ventura has got himself in the mix and at one point was leading by two. However, bogeys on 13 and 15 as soon as he took the lead was not a good sign, and lack of experience in the mix may prevent him getting the win.
The leaderboard is now a mix of up-and-coming youngsters who haven't won yet or journeymen who haven't won in years. James Hahn and Brian Stuard haven't won since 2016 and barely made a cut this year. Cameron Percy holed an awful lot of putts yesterday and hasn't won since a Nationwide Tour victory back in 2014. Out of the the three we would expect James Hahn to push on from here as it is injury which has derailed him in recent years.
It would be no surprise to see Burns bounce back given the quality of his game over the first 36 holes - but he is enough at single figures and this leaderboard is set up perfectly for a more experienced type coming from off the pace to win. We have selected three 'win only bets' who will have a great chance should they start fast tonight.
2pts Win Only Kevin Streelman - 33/1 @ William Hill
1pt Win Only Chez Reavie - 66/1 @ Betfair
1pt Win Only Xinjun Zhang - 80/1 @ William Hill
Kevin is always on our radar when off the pace on a Sunday and is no stranger to finishing fast. He will carry terrific momentum into the final round having played the last 36 holes in 13 under and would have been delighted the leaders didn't get further away. Although he hasn't won since 2013, he has two 2nd places this year and was unlucky to be beaten by Dustin Johnson at the Travelers. He hit 94% of greens in regulation yesterday and if he can do something similar today will have a good chance of going low.
Chez has been on selected on his quality in comparison to the leaderboard in addition to hitting over 85% of fairways and greens yesterday. It was evident last night what a difference it made hitting approach shots from the fairway and this may pay dividends in the end. He has won as recently as the 2019 Travelers which may well give him an edge in this company. At four back, he will need a fast start, but we have seen plenty of off the pace winners here, so it is worth a small play.
Finally, we will have an outside play on the Chinese youngster who is three shots back. Zhang is one of the many Asian players who are regularly overpriced and in our opinion 80/1 is too big for a player who won twice in 2019 on the Korn Ferry Tour. That recent winning feeling may be the difference and he should have nothing to fear today.
12th September 2020
Sam Burns has taken control of the event with two superb rounds and now leads by two strokes over Harry Higgs who made an albatross 2 on his last hole yesterday. Sam's stats are incredible so far, 1st for SG: Tee to green and top 10 for driving, putting and around the greens.
He will take some beating now, but lack of experience in this position makes it far from a certainty. Winners have come as far back as 9 shots and 6 shots after 36 holes in recent editions of the Safeway Open and there is also history of the 3rd round leader being toppled numerous times.
Given the lack of quality close to Burns, we are happy to have a couple of each way value plays from the 8 and 9 under mark. Both players appear to be mispriced in comparison to other bookmakers so you may have to act fast or risk the price shortening.
1pt Each Way Kristoffer Ventura (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 200/1 @ William Hill
1pt Each Way Sepp Straka (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 200/1 @ Bet365
Kristoffer played his final 7 holes in 5 under par yesterday to join the group at 9 under. Without setting the world alight, he has been playing some quality golf since lockdown with only one missed cut and five top 25 places. He is the kind of player who could go low and may see this leaderboard as an ideal opportunity to make progressive steps in his short career. Take the value price of 80/1 at William Hill.
Sepp sits one shot further back at -8 and will take some nice momentum into the weekend after a Friday 66. He has already had three Top 5 finishes in his first season and a half on the PGA Tour and has more quality than most of the players above him. He recorded impressive strokes gained stats yesterday and is simply too big at 150/1.
11th September 2020
-9 Knox
-8 Burns
-8 Hoag
-8 Percy
-7 Steele
-7 Perez
Russell Knox leads after round one, having changed coach and re-focused his game on accuracy rather than chasing extra distance off the tee. It is course specialist, Brendan Steele, who holds favouritism at the bookmakers at odds of 7/1 though given he has two wins here in 2016 and 2017.
Conditions were better yesterday than during practice rounds where wildfires in the area had caused severe problems. Tee times were delayed yesterday and we should be aware to the fact further disruption could occur.
With question marks over several of the early pacesetters (Hoag and Percy in particular) it is worth looking further down the leaderboard for value.
1pt Each Way Joonhyung Kim (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - 50/1 @ Bet365
1pt Each Way Scott Harrington (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - 80/1 @ 888Sport
Joonhyung Kim is a name unfamiliar to most having played almost entirely in Asia to date. Four wins since June 2019 (albeit two of those on the Asian Development Tour) has seen Kim break into the top 100 in the world rankings and he's very much a player on the up. He shot 5 under par yesterday, ranking 8th for SG: Off the Tee and 15th for SG: Approach. Given how prolific he has been in Asia he's worth chancing in a field that is lacking in quality.
Scott posted a 6 under par 66 yesterday and at 80/1 he's a bit of value to force his way further up the leaderboard. He said in his interview yesterday that he had "put in so much work" the past two weeks and at the weekend just past something "clicked." That certainly showed yesterday as he 11th SG: Off the Tee and 14th for SG: Approach.
