RSM Classic 2022

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In-play

Preview

Event Info

Starts: 17th November 2022
Course: Sea Island Resort, Georgia
Par: 70 (Seaside) & 72 (Plantation)
Length: 7,005 yards & 7,060 yards
2021 Champion: Talor Gooch

Course Info

Course Designer: Tom Fazio (Seaside) & Davis Love III (Plantation)
Tournament played here since: 2010 but moved to this format in 2015
Type of Course: Coastal, exposed to wind
Fairways: Often demanding tee shots and dog legs. Rough will be minimal at 1.5 inches.
Greens: Bermuda greens which will run at 12.5 on the Stimpmeter at Seaside & 11 at Plantation.
Par 5's: 4th, 7th & 15th on Seaside. The 4th, 8th, 14th & 18th on Plantation
Water Hazards: In play on 13 holes at Seaside & 10 holes on Plantation
Premium on: Hot putter and approach.

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

-This is the last event of the year for most PGA Tour pros.
-The Plantation course was re-designed in 2019 and the 2020 event was the first time many players had played it.
-Three rounds are played on the Seaside course and one round played on the Plantation. Players will play each course over the first two days.

Weather

Thursday: Partly Cloudy with wind expected to peak at 12mph.
Friday: Partly Cloudy with wind expected to peak at 9mph.
Saturday: Cloudy with wind expected to peak at 12mph.
Sunday: AM Showers with wind expected to peak at 14mph.

Trends

Winning Score
Since this format was adopted in 2015, the winning score has varied between -17 and -22. Last year, Talor Gooch matched Kevin Kisner's lowest total score of 22 under par.

Course Form
Five of the past seven champions posted a top 25 here prior to winning. The other two winners were course debutants. Course knowledge is definitely helpful.

Recent Form
Four of the last seven champions had posted a top 20 finish in their previous two starts. Recent form is preferred but not essential.

Two Courses
It is worth noting that five of the past seven winners have played the easier Plantation course first, shooting a minimum score of -5. Only Mackenzie Hughes (2016) and 2020 winner, Robert Streb, triumphed when playing Seaside first.

Nationality:
Every winner of this event has been from America or Canada.

Stats Analysis

Please Note - We have no Strokes Gained data from the Plantation Course. The stats below therefore only account for three of the four rounds played at previous RSM Classics.

SG: Off The Tee
None of the last five winners have ranked better than 12th in this category and several winners ranked 40th or worse (Robert Streb ranked 74th and Talor Gooch 49th). Not a key category this week.

SG: Approach
The three champions between 2017-2019 ranked 3rd, 17th and 5th in this category. However, Mackenzie Hughes ranked 61st in this category when winning in 2016 and Robert Streb was 65th in 2020. Talor Gooch was 2nd when winning last year. In general, strong approach play is usually necessary.

SG: Around The Green
Over the last four years we've seen mixed rankings from the winners in this category of 2-59-38-40-9-1 (most recent first).

SG: Putting
Five of the past seven winners have ranked 14th or better in this category, with no winner having ranked worse than 24th. A hot putter is needed this week.

In Play

Fast or Slow Start
Every winner has posted a score of -5 or better in the first round. The last SIX winners have been inside the top eight after round one. Remarkably, the last SIX winners have led at halfway. It is vital to get off to a strong start.

Tough Holes
The 10th, 12th and 14th holes at Seaside played as the three hardest holes.

Birdie Holes
The 15th, 8th and 6th were the easiest holes at Seaside.

In-play

RSM Classic In-Play Blog

20th November 2022, 11:30am (UK time)

Player	Total
Rodgers	-14
Martin	-14
Putnam	-13
Svensson	-13
Theegala	-13

Round 3 Summary

We saw lots of change to the leaderboard as Patrick Rodgers and Ben Martin overtook the halfway leaders. Adam Svensson shot the low round of the day with a 62 and is one back of the leaders with Theegala and Putnam.

Round 4 Weather

Cloudy afternoon with some rain in the morning. Wind 8-11 mph.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Rodgers is now 5/1 favourite but he looks like a favourite worth taking on. Yet to win on the PGA Tour, he hasn't held a 54 hole lead since 2017 where he let two leads slip at the Farmers and John Deere Classic. He failed to break 70 both times and it was the same result last time he was in contention at Mexico this year, shooting 70 to go from 4th to 10th.

Sahith Theegala and Andrew Putnam are next in the betting at 15/2 but neither have convinced in contention lately either. Theegala has already lost two 54 hole leads is his short career but has admittedly improved every time he has been in the mix. Putnam shot a 73 when leading at Pebble Beach this year but was better last time out at ZOZO when finishing 2nd to Keegan Bradley. Although both are capable, neither is tempting us at 15/2.

Where is the value?

Although round three leaders have a good record here, this bunched leaderboard means it's likely someone will fire a low round and anyone in double digits can't be ruled out yet. The leaders look worth taking on so we are going to play a couple of runners from off the pace.

Round 4 Bets

0.5pts Each Way Ben Taylor 66/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-4)

Taylor is three back of the leaders and is coming straight off a recent experience in contention at Houston, where he is bound to have learnt loads about himself. He shot 70 that day to finish 3rd which is more than respectable for his first attempt on tour. Coming from behind should suit and he ranked 2nd tee to green yesterday. Two rounds of 65 at Seaside shows he enjoys the course and is a lively outsider.

0.5pts Each Way Wyndham Clark 80/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-4)

Clark got himself into contention before a double bogey at 16 halted his progress. He is now four back but has the attacking game to potentially go low. He is best suited from off the pace, we saw that at the 2020 Bermuda when he shot 65 to finish 2nd. The rain in the morning should suit his power game and make those fairways a little but wider for him to attack.

+ - Round 3 Bets Click to collapse

19th November 2022, 11:20am (UK time)

Player	Total
Putnam	-12
Higgs	-12
Hammer	-12
Dahmen	-11
Hossler	-11
Theegala	-11

Round 2 Summary

Plenty of low scores means 10 players are within two shots of the lead, which is held by Andrew Putnam, Harry Higgs and Cole Hammer.

Notable Round 2 Quotes

" My driving accuracy's been probably the best in my career this last year, so that's really helped. The putting's back to pretty good like it normally is and my irons
this week have been pretty sharp. Pretty much every part of my game has been pretty good right now, so it's a fun time to play golf." Andrew Putnam

" Yeah, I feel really good. Obviously last one of the season and you kind of want to leave with a good taste in your mouth. Yeah, feel great through two rounds.
Playing really solid and I have been playing solid all fall, so it's nice to see the form kind of continue.." Sahith Theegala

Round 3 Weather

Cloudy. Wind 8-11 mph.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Andrew Putnam remains favourite at 5/1 and all aspects of his game appear in good shape. He is a worthy favourite after a recent 2nd place in Japan but hasn't won since the 2018 Barracuda so we wouldn't be rushing to pile on.

Joel Dahmen is next in the betting at 15/2 and has to be respected following two top 10's in Houston and Mexico. He is a more recent winner having won the 2021 Corales. Another at 15/2 is Sahith Theegala who is destined to win sooner rather than later but much of his low round yesterday was due to the putter and he will have to tidy up his iron play today.

Where is the value?

The last SIX winners here have been leading at halfway so Harry Higgs was tempting at 14/1 however the concern is that it means so much to him right now whilst playing on a sponsor exemption.

Round 3 Bets

0.5pts Each Way J J Spaun 80/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-5)

Spaun is five off the lead but can take inspiration from his weekend performance here in 2017 where he shot 62-66 to finish 2nd. He also shot 69-67 over the weekend here last year when finishing 16th so clearly likes the seaside course where we play the last 36 holes. Ranks 5th for driving accuracy and 7th for GIR so just needs a few more putts to drop to threaten the places.

1.5pts Harry Higgs to beat Andrew Putnam and Cole Hammer 11/4 @ General

Harry played the seaside course in 8 under par yesterday and has hit 33/36 greens this week. We expect Cole Hammer to struggle in the final group today which means 11/4 is a very generous price for Higgs to get the better of Putnam. Admittedly, this is a bit of a price play but Higgs has been disrespected and we have the odds much closer to 2/1.

+ - Round 2 Bets Click to collapse

18th November 2022, 10:35am (UK time)

Player	Total
Hammer	-8
Griffin	-7
Hossler	-6
Tarren	-6
Suh	-6
Elevn Players Tied	-5

Round 1 Summary

Cole Hammer and Ben Griffin lead the way after playing their opening rounds at the Plantation course. There wasn't much difference in scoring average between the two courses in the opening round, with the Plantation averaging 70.44 and Seaside averaging 70.22.

Notable Round 1 Quotes

"I really feel that I'm finally on the right track. I'm healthy, I feel like what I'm working on is simple for me and I'm starting to have confidence again. You know, I didn't have that much confidence last year. It's hard to create confidence out of nothing. I'd work on my game and I just wasn't quite getting over the hump, but I feel like the last five, six weeks since I've been home, my practice sessions are different and they're reminding me of what it used to feel like and the shots I'm hitting, the way I'm striking the golf ball." Webb Simpson

"I was sick on Monday night and didn't play either of the courses Tuesday or Wednesday so I didn't really know what to expect going into the round, but obviously I'm at home so it's very familiar for me to be playing out there. Yeah, the greens I thought were a little tricky, but I adjusted throughout the day and started to make a few down the stretch. Left one short in the jar on 18, but overall very solid day." Ben Griffin

"This summer was tough on the PGA TOUR. I had some good finishes on the Korn Ferry, but I was batting zero on the PGA TOUR. I needed to get that monkey off my back. To do that in my hometown event in Houston was huge for me. I was telling my parents, but the first tee in Houston was like the most nervous I've ever been just with the hometown crowd. It's kind of crazy since I've played in Walker Cups and stuff. But anyways, I basically told myself I'll never be that nervous again. Yeah, I just got comfortable after that and saw myself shoot a good round on Tour and now I believe that I can do it." Cole Hammer

Round 2 Weather

Sunny. Wind 7-10 mph.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

With two rookies leading the way, the betting is very much wide open going into round two. Andrew Putnam is the 10/1 favourite and that tells us just how wide open this event is. If we take the front two out of the equation, 43 players are separated by only three shots.

Where is the value?

Remarkably, the last five winners have all been inside the top eight after the opening round and led after halfway. Looking for value at the top of the leaderboard is our strategy going into round two.

Round 2 Bets

0.75pts Each Way Patton Kizzire 66/1 @ Spreadex (1/4 1-4)

Patton was one of our pre-event selections and we're more than happy to top up at 66/1. He plays the Plantation course today, having opened with a very solid round at Seaside. A two time winner on the PGA Tour, he's being underestimated by the bookmakers. Take the 50/1 with five each way places if you don't have access to Spreadex.

0.5pts Each Way Henrik Norlander 80/1 @ General (1/4 1-5)

Henrik was our our radar for this pre-event due to his strong finishes here in 2016 and 2019. His missed cut at Houston last week was enough to sew an element of doubt in our mind, but having got off to an encouraging start on the Plantation Course, we're happy to jump on board. He hit all bar one green in regulation yesterday and that bodes well for the rest of the week.

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