Event Info
Starts: 18th November 2021
Course: Sea Island Resort, Georgia
Par: 70 (Seaside) & 72 (Plantation)
Length: 7,005 yards & 7,060 yards
2020 Champion: Robert Streb
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -14.5pts
Pre-Event Bets: -7pts
1.25pts EW Brendon Todd 55/1 @ 888Sport (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Dylan Frittelli 125/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Andrew Landry 110/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Graeme McDowell 225/1 @ BetVictor (1/5 1-6)
1.5pts Andrew Putnam Top 20 Finish 7/1 @ 10bet/Sport Nation
In-Play Bets: -7.5pts
18 November 2021(-4pts)
1pt EW Nate Lashley 100/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-6)
0.5pts EW Matt Wallace 150/1 @ BetVictor (1/5 1-5)
0.5pts EW Brian Gay 350/1 @ Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
20 November 2021(-2pts)
0.5pts EW Jim Herman 100/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
0.5pts EW Russell Knox 125/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-5)
21 November 2021(-1.5pts)
0.75pts Win Only Mackenzie Hughes 20/1 @ Boylesports
0.75pts Win Only Webb Simpson 22/1 @ Betfair
Preview
Course Info
Course Designer: Tom Fazio (Seaside) & Davis Love III (Plantation)
Tournament played here since: 2010 but moved to this format in 2015
Type of Course: Coastal, exposed to wind
Fairways: Often demanding tee shots and dog legs. Rough will be minimal at 1.5 inches.
Greens: Bermuda greens which will run at 12.5 on the Stimpmeter at Seaside & 11 at Plantation.
Par 5's: 4th, 7th & 15th on Seaside. The 4th, 8th, 14th & 18th on Plantation
Water Hazards: In play on 13 holes at Seaside & 10 holes on Plantation
Premium on: Accurate driving and approach.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
-This is the last event of the year for most PGA Tour pros.
-The Plantation course was re-designed in 2019 and last year's event was the first time many players had played it.
-Three rounds are played on the Seaside course and one round played on the Plantation. Players will play each course over the first two days. The Seaside played as the harder in 2019, playing 1.56 shots under par on average. The Plantation played 1.10 shots under par by comparison.
-Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Trends
Winning Score
Since this format was adopted in 2015, the winning score has varied between -17 and -22.
Course Form
Four of the past six champions posted a top 25 here prior to winning. The other two winners were course debutants. Course knowledge is definitely helpful.
Recent Form
Three of the last six champions had posted a top 20 finish in their previous two starts. Recent form is preferred but not essential.
Two Courses
It is worth noting that four of the past six winners have played the easier Plantation course first, shooting a minimum score of -5. Only Mackenzie Hughes (2016) and last year's winner, Robert Streb, triumphed when playing Seaside first.
Nationality:
Every winner of this event has been from America or Canada.
Stats Analysis
Please Note - We have no Strokes Gained data from the Plantation Course. The stats below therefore only account for three of the four rounds played at previous RSM Classics.
SG: Off The Tee
None of the last four winners have ranked better than 12th in this category and several winners ranked 38th or worse (Robert Streb ranked 74th). We should place less emphasis on this but it is worth noting that each of the five winners have all ranked 22nd or better in Driving Accuracy.
SG: Approach
The three champions between 2017-2019 ranked 3rd, 17th and 5th in this category. However, Mackenzie Hughes ranked 61st in this category when winning in 2016 and Robert Streb was 65th Off The Tee last year.
SG: Around The Green
Over the last four years we've seen mixed rankings from the winners in this category of 59-38-40-9-1 (most recent first).
SG: Putting
Four of the past six winners have ranked 14th or better in this category, with no winner having ranked worse than 24th. A hot putter is needed this week.
Weather
Thursday: Partly Cloudy with wind expected to peak at 6mph.
Friday: Partly Cloudy with wind expected to peak at 18mph.
Saturday: Partly Cloudy with wind expected to peak at 17mph.
Sunday: Partly Cloudy with wind expected to peak at 12mph.
In Play
Fast or Slow Start
Every winner has posted a score of -5 or better in the first round. The last five winners have been inside the top eight after round one. Remarkably, the last five winners have led at halfway. It is vital to get off to a strong start.
Tough Holes
The 10th, 12th and 14th holes at Seaside played as hte three hardest holes in 2020.
Birdie Holes
The 15th, 8th and 6th were the easiest holes at Seaside in 2020.
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers. If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.
Scott Piercy 100/1
We're taking advantage of the generous each way terms at Boylesports but if you don't have access to them, 888sport are offering 110/1 for 8 each way places. Scott has two top 20 finishes in his last two starts at Sea Island. A top 20 finish last week was notable as he led the field for SG: Approach and ranked 6th SG: Tee To Green. That combination should work well at courses he's clearly comfortable at.
Denny McCarthy 100/1
Denny has been a player of interest for us the past few weeks. Form figures of 39-15-11 show he's trending in the right direction and this could well be the tournament that sees him break through. His long game has been solid in each of those finishes and last week the putts started to drop too. He signed off with a Sunday 64 in Houston and that momentum shouldn't be underestimated. His sole career win came on the back of 5th, 9th and 13th place finishes so when he gets on a run he's dangerous. We wanted to see 125/1 on Denny this week.
Tyler Duncan 125/1
Tyler has been on our radar for this event ever since his wife gave birth 4 weeks ago. The arrival of his baby daughter seems to have given him some impetus as we've seen an uptick in form and general play has been much better. He was 2nd Driving Accuracy last week and has been top 25 for Greens in Regulation since his child was born. A past winner at this event, he was hard to leave out this week.
Brandon Wu 300/1
Brandon caught our eye when leading the Puerto Rico Open earlier in the year through the opening 36 holes. A winner on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020, he also has strong form at Pebble Beach, including a top 40 at the 2019 US Open held there. The price was big off the back of a decent showing in Bermuda last time out.
Max McGreevy 350/1
Max was under consideration for a top 20 bet given his strong showing in Houston last week. He ranked 10th SG: Tee To Green last week. A 19th place finish was his best ever finish on the PGA Tour and even though he appears to be a player who stays hot, we decided to leave him out this week.
In-play
RSM Classic In-Play Blog
21 November 2021, 11.25am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Gooch | -16 |
| Power | -13 |
| Munoz | -13 |
| Hoge | -12 |
| Hughes | -11 |
| List | -11 |
| Stallings | -11 |
Two birdies in his last four holes has created a bit of daylight for Talor Gooch and he takes a three shot lead over Sebastian Munoz and Seamus Power.
As mentioned yesterday, Gooch is searching for his maiden win and has been knocking on the door with four top 11's in his last five starts. The most recent of which is a concern where he shot 74 in his final round to drop back to 11th in Mexico. Power and Munoz are both PGA Tour winners and 10/11 seems a tad short.
Munoz last won in 2019 at the Sanderson Farms and he would be deserving of a win this year. Three fourth place finishes and a 4th this year is a strong season but he has struggled slightly since the wind has picked up.
Power won more recently at the Barbasol Championship in July and that recent winning feeling may help him get over the line. He has had a terrific season, climbing from 463rd to 89th in the world rankings. The truth is there's not much separating Munoz and power and odds of 6/1 and 7/1 seem about right.
The wind won't be as extreme as the last two days today but will still give the players something to think about with speeds of around 12mph and gusts up to 20mph.
Perhaps someone can find a low round while the leaders struggle. With that in mind, we will back a couple of players who can be trusted on a Sunday further back.
Round 4 Bets
- 0.75pts Win Only Mackenzie Hughes 20/1 @ Boylesports
Hughes is five back and has it all to do but has history of mounting a final day charge. Last year he shot a best of the day 66 to finish 2nd in tough conditions at the Honda Classic to finish 2nd. Last month he shot 67 at Zozo to finish 4th and he more than held his own in contention at the Open Championship this summer. He's a past winner here who will take good memories into today.
- 0.75pts Win Only Webb Simpson 22/1 @ Betfair
Webb is one further back and will also need some help from Gooch but he also has recent history of a strong finish, shooting 64 in the final round to win the Heritage last year. With seven wins on tour, he will give Gooch something to think about if he starts fast and is worth chancing to so.
20 November 2021, 10.55am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Gooch | -13 |
| Huh | -12 |
| Munoz | -12 |
| Moore | -11 |
| Hughes | -11 |
| Three Players Tied | -10 |
A best of the day 65 at Seaside saw Talor Gooch open up a one shot lead at the top of the RSM Classic leaderboard.
Gooch will never have a better chance to win his first PGA Tour title given the last five round two leaders here have gone on to win. A general 7/2, he was one of the players we identified at the start of the year as one to watch and he's certainly due a win soon. Four top eleven finishes in his last five starts shows just how close he's been of late.
His final round performance at Mayakoba has to be a cause for concern. A final round 74 saw him slip from 2nd through 54 holes to a final position of 11th. For that reason alone, we're happy to take him on this weekend.
Chasing Gooch are John Huh and Sebastian Munoz. Huh was a winner of the 2012 Mayakoba Classic but hasn't had a top 10 on the PGA Tour since July 2018. He struggled in contention at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship a few weeks ago and he's likely to move backwards over the weekend.
Munoz is an interesting option at 8/1. We tipped him for last week's test in Houston and it would be annoying to see him win this week. We're content to look further down the leaderboard for today's bets though.
The third round will be played in similar conditions to Round two. The wind is expected to be a general 18-20 mph with gusts stronger.
Round 3 Bets
- 0.5pts Each Way Jim Herman 100/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
Jim has yet to drop a shot this week, ranking joint 1st for Driving Accuracy and 5th for Greens in Regulation. Five shots off the lead, he's no stranger to coming from behind to winning. His win at the Wyndham Championship came courtesy of weekend rounds of 61 and 63 so he can get on a hot streak with the putter. Three PGA Tour wins since 2016 shows he's a man who knows how to get the job done.
- 0.5pts Each Way Russell Knox 125/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-5)
The fact there are still five each way places available means we're happy to look further down the leaderboard at potential bets. Russell is seven under par through the opening two rounds and six shots off leader Talor Gooch. He's a player who enjoys playing in the wind and will enjoy today's test. He ranks joint 1st for Driving Accuracy and 1st for Greens in Regulation so far this week, he just needs the putter to play ball.
18 November 2021, 10.20pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Munoz (SS) | -10 |
| Hughes (PL) | -9 |
| Stallings (PL) | -9 |
| Z Johnson (SS) | -9 |
| Reavie (PL) | -9 |
| Four Players Tied | -8 |
Benign conditions for the opening round of The RSM Classic meant that scoring was exceptionally low. Only twenty players failed to break par on a day when Sebastian Munoz was a stroke away from posting a 59.
Munoz stated in his post round interview that he was hitting it "really good," just as he had in the pro-am yesterday. Annoyingly, he was one of our selections last week in Houston, it will be galling to see him post a big finish this week.
For all that Munoz was impressive today, there are 33 players within four shots of the lead. With weather conditions set to be challenging, this is no time to be backing those players at the top of the betting market. That includes bookies favourite, Scottie Scheffler (10/1).
If the players enjoyed easy conditions in round one, they'll certainly face a tougher test in round two. The wind is expected to blow around 20mph tomorrow, with gusts forecast to be up to 30mph. Playing the Plantation course is likely to be an advantage given it is less exposed.
Round 2 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Nate Lashley 100/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-6)
Nate is our pick of the 2nd round bets. He is currently three shots off the lead, having opened with a 63 at Seaside. He ranked 4th SG: Tee to Green in round one and a similar performance tomorrow should see him rise further up the leaderboard. A winner in Puntacana, along with several good results by the sea, the wind won't faze him over the next few days.
- 0.5pts Each Way Matt Wallace 150/1 @ BetVictor (1/5 1-5)
We were surprised to see Matt priced up at 150/1 and it's a price we can't turn down. A solid performer in the wind, he can be expected to move up the leaderboard tomorrow. He's five shots back as it stands but we should see the leaderboard change quite dramatically over the next few days and it doesn't faze us that he trails by so many. Matt picked up three shots in his closing four holes and he'll go into tomorrow with some momentum.
- 0.5pts Each Way Brian Gay 350/1 @ Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Finally, we can't resist a small play on veteran Brian Gay at huge odds. Gay did us a favour last year at the Bermuda Championship when winning at 100/1 and windy, coastal events are right up his street. Only four shots off the lead after the opening round, he'll enjoy the test posed by the wind tomorrow. If you can't get the 350/1 at Boylesports, the 250/1 generally available for six each way places is more than acceptable.
