Preview

Course Info

Course Designer: Tom Fazio (Seaside) and Davis Love III (Plantation)
Tournament played here since: 2010 but moved to this format in 2015
Type of Course: Coastal, exposed to wind
Fairways: Often demanding tee shots and dog legs.  Rough will be minimal at 1.5 inches.
Greens: Bermuda greens which will run at 12.5 on the Stimpmeter at Seaside and 11 at Plantation.
Par 5's: 4th, 7th and 15th on Seaside.  4th, 8th, 14th and 18th on Plantation
Water Hazards: In play on 13 of the holes on Seaside and 10 of the holes on Plantation
Premium on: Accurate driving and approach.

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

 

This event follows The Masters for the first time.  The Heritage normally follows the Masters and we often see players who have been in contention struggle at The Heritage.  We should expect a similar pattern this week.

The Plantation course was re-designed in 2019 and last year's event was the first time many players had played it.  

Three rounds are played on the Seaside course and one round played on the Plantation.  Players will play each course over the first two days. The Seaside played as the harder in 2019, playing 1.56 shots under par on average.  The Plantation played 1.10 shots under par by comparison.

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals. 

Trends

Winning Score: Since this format was adopted in 2015, the winning score has varied between -17 and -22.

Course Form: Three of the past five champions posted a top 25 here prior to winning.  The other two were course debutants.

Recent Form: Three of the last five champions had posted a top 20 finish in their previous two starts.  Recent form is preferred but not essential.
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Two Courses: It is worth noting that four of the past five winners have played the easier Plantation course first, shooting a minimum score of -5.  Only Mackenzie Hughes triumphed when playing Seaside first.

Nationality: Every winner of this event has been from America or Canada.

Stats Analysis

SG: Approach: The last three champions ranked 3rd, 17th and 5th in this category so it should very much be valued.  Mackenzie Hughes ranked 61st in this category when winning in 2016 but this should be viewed as the exception.

SG: Off The Tee: None of the last four winners have ranked better than 12th in this category and several winners ranked 38th.  We should place less emphasis on this but it is worth noting that each of the five winners have all ranked 17th or better in Driving Accuracy.

SG: Around The Green: Over the last four years we've seen mixed rankings from the winners in this category of 38-40-9-1.  

SG: Putting: Four of the past five winners have ranked 14th or better in this category, with no winner having ranked worse than 24th.  A hot putter is needed this week.

In Play

Fast or Slow Start: Every winner has posted a score of -5 or better in the first round.

Six To Watch

Chez Reavie - 100/1 @ Betfred (7 places)
Chez comes into this week off a promising 29th place at The Masters.  He hasn't played here since 2015, when he posted a 33rd place finish.  He's a far better player now and we shouldn't forget he is ranked 50th in the world.  Chez is now a two time PGA Tour winner, having won the Travelers Championship last year.  It's notable that he won that event in the week following a good finish at a Major (US Open) and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him do so again.

Russell Knox - 100/1 @ Betfred (7 places)
Russell is driving the ball really nicely at the moment, having ranked 1st in Driving Accuracy last time out in Houston and 19th the week before that in Bermuda.  He was 3rd Greens in Regulation in Bermuda and although he was 42nd SG: Approach in Houston, it was largely attributable to his first round.  These excellent stats have seen him record consecutive top 16 finishes in his last two starts and a 20th place here last year when starting slowly (he shot an opening round of +1) gives us reason to highlight him.

Aaron Wise - 100/1 @ Betfair (8 places)
Aaron has been in a bit of a slump in recent times but finishes of 11th and 26th in his last two starts hint at a return to form.  His iron play has been sound both those weeks and his driving accuracy was good in Bermuda, even if it dropped off slightly last time in Houston.  Two of his three career wins have followed a week off and a top 11 finish in his last start, a scenario that presents itself this week.  We shouldn't forget he was Rookie of the Year in 2018 and is a far better player than he's been showing recently.

Chris Kirk - 150/1 @ Skybet (8 places)
Chris is a former resident of Sea Island and past champion of this event.  It was well documented earlier in the year that he battled alcohol addiction before winning on the Korn Ferry Tour.  It would be a nice narrative if he were to win this week at a place that feels comfortable to him and a course he has played hundreds of times (quoted in 2017 as having played Seaside over 300 times).  He posted a 44th place last time in Houston but digging deeper he was 13th for Driving Accuracy and 18th for SG: Approach.  A better week on greens that are familiar to him could see a high finish.

Troy Merritt - 200/1 @ Betfair (8 places)
Troy is a two time PGA Tour winner and world number 135.  He drove the ball accurately in his last two starts, ranking 13th and 4th in this category in Houston and Bermuda.  That has seen him post a couple of top 40s and Houston could have been much better had he not started with a 74.  He had a couple of top 30s the last two years here also.  Too big at these odds.

Scott Brown - 300/1 @ Skybet (8 places)
It was surprising to see Scott priced up so generously given the evidence to suggest he will go well.  He's a local, with extensive course knowledge.  Has four top 20 finishes in seven starts at this event, including a 4th in 2013.  Stats wise, he ranked 19th in Driving Accuracy and 8th in SG: Approach on his way to a 24th place at Houston two weeks ago.  At huge odds with eight places available he's one to watch.

In-play

 22nd November 2020

-17 Streb
-14 Johnson
-14 Burgoon
-13 Grillo

Robert Streb went bogey free during the third round of the RSM Classic to extend his lead to three shots going into the final round.  It was the second consecutive day without a bogey and given he has only dropped one shot all week, he'll be hard to overturn.  He also has the memories of his win here in 2014 to draw upon and that may help him if things get tight. The bookies have priced him up at 6/4 to convert and whilst his play has been admirable so far, this is a course where deficits can be overturned.

The wind will be down slightly today (around 8mph) so we may well see some lower scores.  We shouldn't forget that Tyler Duncan fired a 65 here last year to overturn a four shot deficit.  It would be no surprise to see someone go low and challenge Streb today.

Those of you who backed our in-play selections are in a promising position with all three tips very much in the mix.  We have each way bets on Kyle Stanley (175/1), Andrew Landry (125/1) and Emiliano Grillo (33/1) and given they are all inside the top 8 with 18 holes to go, we'd expect at least one of them to kick on and claim a place.

Given our position, we aren't adding any further plays ahead of the final round.

20th November 2020

-14 Streb
-12 Villegas
-11 Burgoon
-11 Kizzire
-10 Stanley
-10 English

Robert Streb shot a 63 to match his career low round and take a two stroke lead into the weekend.  That lead has seen him take over favouritism at the bookies, with a general price of 9/2 available.  In his post round interview, Streb himself acknowledged that he hasn't "been quite in a lead like this for a while."  It'll be interesting to see how he copes tomorrow having not won on the PGA tour since he triumphed at this event in 2014.  He does have a win to his name on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2018 but it is difficult to see him retaining a two shot advantage going into the final round.

The leaderboard is very much a who's who of redemption stories and players who have struggled in recent times.  Camilo Villegas has had extensive personal issues with the relatively recent loss of his daughter and there wouldn't be many who would object to him winning for the first time since 2014. 

Kizzire, English and Stanley would appear the three who represent the biggest threat over the weekend.  Stanley has been using a longer driver this week and that extra distance appears to have given him increased confidence.  Those who took our 175/1 tip yesterday will be pleased to see him within touching distance of the lead. 

Recent years have seen halfway leaders dominate and since the format of the event changed in 2015 we've seen four winners out of five lead at halfway.  Despite that, we are adding a selection who has the potential to come from off the pace.

1pt Each Way Emiliano Grillo (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 33/1 @ William Hill

Like many at the top of the leaderboard, Emiliano is a player who hasn't won for a few years (2015 was his last win).  Currently six shots off the lead, he'll be able to attack over the weekend and there's every reason to like his chancers given the quality of his iron play.  He ranks 7th in Greens in Regulation so far this week but it is the all round consistency of his game that has attracted us to him.  He ranks inside the top 45 for every stat category this week other than driving distance and since that isn't essential here we're not taking that into account.  His putting can often be really poor and it is encouraging to see him rank inside the top 40 in both SG: Putting and Putts per GIR.

19th November 2020

-6 Wallace
-6 Villegas
-5 Sabbatini
-5 Malnati
-5 Tringale
-5 Long
-5 Kizzire
-5 Streb
-5 Ghim
-5 Bradley

We've got a packed leaderboard at Sea Island with the top 20 separated by only two shots.  Windy conditions saw many players struggle and it was no surprise that over half the field finished over par for their opening round.  

Last year's event had Seaside as the harder of the two courses but that wasn't the case yesterday.  Eleven of the top 20 played at Seaside, with both leaders playing there.  Peter Malnati, in his post round interview, referenced how difficult the greens are at Plantation since the course was redesigned and we're likely to see minimal scoring differences between the courses tomorrow given the forecasted conditions. 

The wind will be down slightly tomorrow but players will still have to contend with 13mph winds.  Conditions are forecast to be dry.

1pt Each Way Andrew Landry (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - 125/1 @ Skybet
1pt Each Way Kyle Stanley (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - 175/1 @ Skybet

Andrew opened with a four under par 68 at the Plantation course in round one and sits only two shots off the lead.  Strokes Gained stats aren't available for that course but he was 6th for Driving Accuracy and 7th for Greens in Regulation.  He's a proven winner in recent years, having won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour between 2015 and 2017 and then notching two PGA Tour wins between 2018 and January this year.  His win in January was particularly impressive and he's a player who can get the job done if the opportunity presents itself.  A proven wind player, having won the Texas Open in 2018, odds of 125/1 are generous and should be taken.  Let's not forget, three of his four career wins have come after a missed cut so the bookies are writing him off too readily here given his poor recent form.

Kyle played the Seaside course in round one, firing a solid round of 67.  He ranked 1st for SG: Approach, 6th for Driving Accuracy and 2nd for Greens in Regulation so we're happy with the quality of his long game.  He's finished top-35 at Sea Island the last three times he's teed it up and whilst it's not course form that jumps off the page, it's solid enough.  Odds of 175/1 are reflective of his poor recent form but Kyle is a player who can post a big finish when seemingly off form.  His best finish in 2020 is 3rd at the Puerto Rico Open and that was off the back of four MC's and a 64th place finish.