Preview
Course Info
Designer: Donald Ross
Used Since: 2019
Fairways: Generous
Greens: Bentgrass/Poa Annua
Water Hazards: On 1 hole
Par 5's: 4th, 7th, 14th and 17th
Premium on: Putting
Significant Info
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
This is the flattest course on the PGA Tour. Fairways are also easy to find with driving accuracy percentages around 5% higher than average.
Players are fighting for their Tour Cards at this stage of the season. Keep an eye on those in and around 125th posiiton on the FedEx Cup.
Weather
Thursday
Partly cloudy with a max wind speed of 14mph.
Friday
Sunny intervals with a max wind speed of 11mph.
Saturday
Sunny intervals with a max wind speed of 6mph.
Sunday
Sunny intervals with a max wind speed of 10mph.
Trends
Winning Score
Last year's playoff was contested with a score of -18. We saw winning scores of -25 and -23 the previous two years, expect low scoring again.
Course Form
Cameron Davis had missed both cuts before his win last year. Joint runners up, Troy Merritt and Joaquin Niemann, did have course form, having previously placed 8th and 5th at Detroit GC.
In 2020, none of the top 7 had recorded a top 40 finish at the 2019 Rocket Mortgage Classic. You can play well here without having played here before.
Recent Form
Davis had missed his last cut and didn't have a top 10 since February. Joint runners up, Merritt and Niemann, weren't in sparling form either but had been making cuts. The two previous winners of this event both posted a top 30 finish in their previous start.
World Ranking
Davis ranked 130th, 2020 champion Bryson DeChambeau ranked 10th in the world. In contrast, 2019 champion, Nate Lashley, ranked 346th.
Nationality
Americans have won twice and Australian once.
Correlating Courses
None of note but other Donal Ross courses are worth considering.
Stats Analysis
SG: Off The Tee
Looking at the three winners, Davis ranked 34th, DeChambeau ranked 1st in 2020, whilst Lashley ranked 55th in 2019.
Driving Accuracy
Davis ranked 59th, DeChambeau ranked 102nd and Lashley ranked 25th.
Driving Distance
Davis ranked 10th, DeChambeau ranked 1st and Lashley 101st.
SG: Approach
Davis ranked 9th. 84th and 7th were the rankings for the 2020 and 2019 champions.
Greens In Regulation
Davis ranked 41st. Both previous winners have ranked in the top 25 in this category (22nd and 6th).
SG: Around The Green
Davis ranked 5th. Both previous winners have ranked in the top 50 in this category (47th and 26th).
SG: Putting
Davis ranked 22nd but a hot putter is helpful, both previous winners ranked 2nd SG: Putting.
In Play
Tough Holes
The 18th and 11th holes generally play as the hardest holes on the course.
Birdie Holes
The par 5's (4th, 7th, 14th and 17th), along with the 3rd hole play as the easiest holes.
Fast or Slow Start
Last year, six of the top seven shot 68 or better in round one. In 2020, eight of the top 11 shot 68 or better in the opening round. In 2019, only one of the top 10 failed to shoot a 68 or better in the opening round.
All three winners of this event have been inside the top 10 at halfway and the top three after 54 holes.
In-play
The Rocket Mortgage Classic In-Play Blog
31 July 2022, 9:30am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Pendrith |
-21 |
| Finau |
-21 |
| Young |
-17 |
| Jaeger |
-16 |
| Cantlay |
-15 |
| Stallings |
-14 |
Round 3 Summary
Taylor Pendrith birdied four of his last five holes to join Tony Finau at the top of the leaderboard and give the pair a four shot lead over Cameron Young.
Notable Round 3 Quotes
"I probably have more pressure just because I've never won before and Tony's a multiple winner and he won last week and he's playing great. I've got a nice opportunity tomorrow being tied with him going into Sunday, so there's 18 holes of golf left and who knows what will happen. I feel like my game's in a good spot, I'm driving it well, I'm hitting my wedges good, it's nice to see some putts go in. We'll see. It will be a fun experience and just looking forward to competing and see what happens." Taylor Pendrith
"I think I'm hitting a lot more greens even than I did last week. I feel like I hit it as good as I've hit it from tee to green last week, so I think I've definitely elevated that part of the game. It's nice to capitalize on some of the putts. I always say I'm making enough putts. Missed some, but I'm making enough to be right there and have a chance to win tomorrow." Tony Finau
Round 4 Weather
Sunny all day with the wind peaking at 9mph in the afternoon.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Tony Finau is 4/5 favourite and it's hard to build a case against him. A winner last week, he's yet to drop a shot this week and appears to be in complete control of his game. Finau leads the field in SG: Tee to Green this week and if he continues to play as he has done, he's the most likely winner.
Taylor Pendrith rallied well late in round three to ensure he stayed in touch with Finau but he's yet to prove his ability to close out tournaments and for that reason we'd much prefer Finau. Pendrith spurned several chances to win on the Korn Ferry Tour and also gave up a three shot lead with a round to go at the Bermuda Championship last year. A win will surely come for the Canadian in future but this might not be his time.
Further down the betting, Cameron Young is 12/1 and Patrick Cantlay is 40/1. It's going to take something special from either and neither make appeal.
Where is the value?
With last week's win fresh in his mind, Tony Finau is the player we see as the most likely winner. We don't see much value in taking the 4/5 though and are happy to swerve any further involvement in the outright market.
Round 4 Bet
- 3pts Nick Watney to beat KK Limbhasut EVENS @ Bet365
Watney ranks 12th in SG: Tee to Green this week whilst Limbhasut has been losing strokes tee to green. Watney has outscored Limbhasut in two of the three rounds so far, only a poor 2nd round prevented him from being further up the leaderboard. The Thai golfer has had a miserable 2022 so far and whilst he's scored well the past two rounds, Watney should have the quality to beat him today.
30 July 2022, 9:20am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Pendrith |
-15 |
| Finau |
-14 |
| Hodges |
-12 |
| Henley |
-10 |
| Young |
-10 |
| Cink |
-10 |
| Six players tied |
-9 |
Round 2 Summary
Despite a slip up on the 16th hole, Taylor Pendrith has grabbed the solo lead by one shot over Tony Finau. Pendrith built a three shot lead at one stage on the front nine but Finau rallied on the back nine to close the gap.
Notable Round 2 Quotes
"I think today especially I hit my driver really well, hit a lot of fairways I believe, it felt like I did, and my wedges were good. The distances were pretty consistent and gave myself a lot of nice birdie putts. The putter was great as well. But yeah, if you can get it in the fairways here, you can kind of attack. The greens were 2 definitely getting firmer towards the end so you kind of had to play for the first hop and I was able to do that." Taylor Pendrith
"I feel like I've been striking the golf ball well, especially the second 2 half of this season, and to be able to capitalize on that by making some putts is probably where I would point to as part of my game that's nice to see." Tony Finau
Round 3 Weather
Sunny all day with barely any wind (6mph max).
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
It's hard to see past the front two the way they are both playing. Finau has hit 34/36 greens in regulation and ranks top 3 for approach and off the tee. Pendrith is driving it long and straight, if he continues that excellence off the tee it will set up a lot more chances for him. He is also 4th or better for approach and off the tee. 13/8 and 11/4 for the pair is about right and it's likely one of them is close to odds on by tomorrow.
Where is the value?
We can't spot any obvious value this morning.
Round 3 Bet
29 July 2022, 10am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Finau |
-8 |
| Pendrith |
-8 |
| Champ |
-6 |
| Simpson |
-6 |
| Wallace |
-6 |
| Thompson |
-6 |
| Hodges |
-6 |
| 14 players tied |
-5 |
Round 1 Summary
Tony Finau and Taylor Pendrith set an early clubhouse lead by two shots and no one was able to get any closer in the afternoon. Finau hit every green in regulation.
Notable Round 1 Quotes
"When I’m healthy, I can compete with the best. I'm having surgery next week." Taylor Pendrith
"Do the math, I missed 10 putts. Obviously, 64′s a very good round, but this is a golf course where a lot of guys are going to make birdies." Tony Finau
Round 2 Weather
Sunny all day. Calm winds of 3mph to start the day, rising to 12mph in the afternoon.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
As mentioned on our Fore the Win Podcast this week, we didn't expect any hangover from Tony Finau this week as he is a player who can maintain hot form. He is now 10/3 and very much the man to beat. The hope for the field is he begins to tire as the week goes on. The nature of this event means low scoring and holing putts will be needed all week, so Tony will need to keep the foot down.
Taylor Pendrith is next in the betting and feels like one that got away this week. He has been excellent since his return from injury and his power game is perfect for this course. He would fit the profile of a winner here, similar to Cameron Davis in a lot of ways. 8/1 feels more fair rather than value with Finau present though.
Where is the value?
There are several players catching our eye this morning from an each way perspective.
Round 2 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Kurt Kitayama 40/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
We followed Kurt's round quite closely yesterday and in all honesty he couldn't have scored any worse than he did. Both driving and approach play were tremendous and he has the power to score well over the next three days. A win on the PGA Tour is around the corner after near misses in Scotland and Mexico so far this season.
- 0.75pts Each Way Callum Tarren 60/1 @ Unibet (1/5 1-5)
The same could be said of Tarren, who waltzed round in 67 whilst losing strokes on the greens. He showed last week what he can do when the putter heats up with a round two 63 and we could see something similar today. Only Tony Finau outperformed him tee to green yesterday. Another winner in waiting.
- 0.75pts Each Way Troy Merritt 66/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
Finally, we couldn't resist a play on last year's runner up at 66/1. He clearly loves this course and his been consistent in his last two starts in Scotland at 3M. Another who was strong off the tee and for approach and we just need a little improvement with the putter today.
