Preview
Course Info
Designer: Dye/Nicklaus
Used Since: 1969
Fairways: Narrow
Rough: Bermuda (0.75 inch)
Greens: TifEagle Bermuda (12.5 stimp)
Water Hazards: On 7 holes
Par 5's: 2nd, 5th and 15th
Premium on: Accurate approach play
Significant Info
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
This event was played in June in 2020. Treat those results with caution as the course was softer.
Weather
Thursday
Cloudy - Max 14mph winds forecast
Friday
Potential thunderstorm - Max 10mph winds forecast
Saturday
Cloudy - Max 8mph winds forecast
Sunday
Cloudy - Max 10mph winds forecast
Trends
Winning Score
Last year, Stewart Cik won with a score of -19. In 2020, we saw a tournament record of -22. Jim Furyk won with a score of -18 in 2015 but other than that, winning scores here from 2010 to 2019 were between 9 and 14 under par.
Course Form
Only two players in the last fourteen years have won on their debut in this event. Of the 12 players who had competed here prior to winning in the past 14 years, only one did so without having previously recorded a top-25 finish. That was Graeme McDowell, who obviously has significant pedigree on narrow, wind exposed courses.
We should treat Graeme as the exception to the rule as previous experience here counts for a lot. To emphasise that point, Luke Donald recorded an incredible SEVEN top-3 finishes in NINE years between 2009 and 2017, while Davis Love III is a FIVE time winner here.
Recent Form
Only two of the last six champions had posted a top 60 finish in their last start prior to winning here. Recent form isn't essential.
World Ranking
The world ranking of the past six champions has been 115-9-111-46-73-14. Winners are generally inside the top 125.
Nationality
Between 2000 and 2011, American golfers dominated, winning nine of the twelve tournaments. However, since 2012 only five Americans have prevailed.
Correlating Courses
There are trends with another Pete Dye designed course, TPC Sawgrass. Home of The Players Championship, Sawgrass also demands accuracy off the tee and challenges players visually, as Dye likes to do.
Certain players have excellent records at both venues. A few notables include:
Davis Love III is a multiple winner of both tournaments
Jim Furyk has won the Heritage twice and been runner up twice at Sawgrass
Matt Kuchar has won at both venues
Webb Simpson has won both
Si Woo Kim has won The Players Championship and has a runner up finish at Hilton Head.
Stats Analysis
SG: Off The Tee
The last five winners have ranked 20-54-79-10-107
Driving Distance
The last six winners have ranked 7-46-87-98-89-59. In general, distance is unimportant.
Driving Accuracy
The last six winners have ranked 104-54-99-11-85-83. Accuracy off the tee isn't essential either.
SG: Approach
The last five winners have ranked 2-8-23-10-3. Approach play is key.
SG: Around The Green
The last five winners have ranked 5-60-11-96-18.
SG: Putting
The last six winners have ranked 25-4-5-22-14-11. A hot putter is essential
In Play
Tough Holes
The 3rd and 4th holes have ranked inside the top four hardest holes in each of the past two years. The par 3 14th hole is also traditionally a hole ranked amongst the three hardest on the course.
Birdie Holes
The par 5's (2nd, 5th and 15th) play as the easiest holes. The easiest hole outside of those is the short par 4 9th.
Closing Stretch
Given the last couple of holes are exposed to the water, the severity of the wind often determines how difficult these holes play. The 18th hole played as the hardest hole on the course in 2019 but was only 6th hardest last year. The par 3 17th plays over par more often than not.
Fast or Slow Start
The last two winners, Stewart Cink and Webb Simpson, were never outside the top 3 after each round. However, it is possible to get off to a slow start here and still win. In 2019 C.T. Pan opened with a level par 71 and found himself 6 shots behind first round leader Shane Lowry.
In 2018, Satoshi Kodaira was a full 9 strokes behind the first round lead after he opened with a 2 over par 73. Similarly, in 2017, Wesley Bryan was in 35th position after round one. In fact, in the last eleven runnings of the Heritage the winner has started with a score in the 70s five times.
Round 3 leaders have a very poor record here in recent years and there have been some stunning wins from players off the pace. Seven of the last nine winners have come from at least 2 shots back and in six of those years the winner came from three shots back.
Even more impressively, in 2018 and 2011 Kodaira and Brand Snedeker came from six shots back, while in 2004 Stewart Cink overturned a NINE shot deficit.
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers. If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.
Webb Simpson 40/1
The 40/1 on Webb was extremely tempting this week given he's not finished outside the top 16 in this event in the past 5 years. However, recent form has been patchy and doubts over whether he can put four rounds together at the moment
Jordan Spieth 40/1
We may regret passing up 40/1 on Jordan come Sunday evening but a missed cut last week was alarming. None of his 15 career victories have been preceded by a missed cut and others marginally preferred.
Maverick McNealy 50/1
Maverick was 4th last year and has been in solid form so far this year. May be one to add in-running.
Kevin Streelman 90/1
Kevin has 3 top 8 finishes in his last 7 starts at Harbour Town and comes into the event with decent recent form. However, last start he was 7th last for GIR and that was enough to put us off.
Anirbhan Lahiri 150/1
Excellent current form and a player who holds form well. Hasn't cracked the code here at Harbour Town (hasn't made the top 40 in five attempts) and other events may suit better.
Brendon Todd 160/1
4th here in 2015 and 8th last time out in Texas, a lot to like about the three time PGA Tour winner. One to keep an eye on in-play.
Hudson Swafford 250/1
Hudson has been playing extremely well of late, including vastly exceeding expectations at last week's Masters. However, he too has struggled here in the past and was discounted on that basis.
In-play
RBC Heritage In-Play Blog
17 April 2022, 10:30am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Varner |
-11 |
| Cantlay |
-10 |
| Lowry |
-10 |
| Van Rooyen |
-10 |
| Straka |
-9 |
| Kuchar |
-9 |
| Wise |
-9 |
| Swafford |
-9 |
The potential thunderstorms forecast for Round 3 never appeared and players took full advantage of the easier scoring conditions to shoot some low scores.
Harold Varner III was the man who capitalised the most, his 63 being the round of the day. He now leads by a stroke going into the final round and will hope to win on the PGA Tour for the first time. He won earlier in the year in Saudi Arabia, his first win since becoming a father in October 2021.
Varner has previously struggled when in contention and it will be interesting to see how that win in Saudi Arabia alters his mindset. We shouldn't forget, this would be the biggest win of his career. We've given Varner a ⭐⭐⭐ Pressure Performance Rating and odds of 5/1 aren't tempting enough to draw us in.
There are three players tucked in behind Varner and all three will fancy their chances today. Alongside Harold Varner III, Shane Lowry and Cantlay make up the top three in the SG: Approach stats this week. Erik Van Rooyen leads the SG: Off The Tee Stats.
Cantlay had a mixed round yesterday and certainly seemed to struggle early on in the round. He retains 4/1 favouritism going into the final round and it's easy to see why. A three time winner last year on the PGA Tour, he's normally reliable in contention. It should be said that that reliability has been tested this year as he's let slip two winning chances. However, he retains a ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating.
Shane Lowry could easily have been leading going into today's final round such was the quality of his approach play yesterday. The Irishman missed five putts of 9ft or less in round 3, including a 3ft putt on the 3rd. He's available at a best price of 9/2. He's another with a ⭐⭐⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating due to some indifferent recent performances in contention.
Erik Van Rooyen also possesses a ⭐⭐⭐ Pressure Performance Rating due to some poor recent efforts in contention. The South African's sole win on the PGA Tour came at the Barracuda Championship so hes yet to win a strokeplay event in the USA (the Barracuda uses a modified stableford scoring system). He'll likely need to re-discover his approach play of the first two days if he's to contend today at 9/1.
Of the chasers, there are several players worthy of mention. Jordan Spieth leads the field in SG: Tee to Green but he may rue a missed putt of 1ft on the 18th hole yesterday. Sepp Straka is 3rd in SG: Tee To Green and will fancy his chances of adding a 2nd PGA Tour win, having won a few weeks ago at the Honda Classic. We discuss all the chasers in more depth in our YouTube show, The Closing Stretch (available from 11.15am UK time).
As we outlined in the preview, seven of the last nine winners have come from two shots back and six of those winners came from three shots back. If we take Harold Varner out of the equation for a second, there are 20 players separated by three shots. It wouldn't be a surprise to see someone shoot a low round from off the pace to win this.
The wind isn't expected to rise above 9mph for the final round but we may see some intermittent rain showers.
Round 4 Bet
- 1pt Each Way Hudson Swafford 28/1 @ Unibet (1/5 1-4)
Of the 21 players at -7 or better, Hudson tops the SG: Putting stats. That's normally enough to put us off considering a player but Hudson's long game has been in fantastic shape for a few weeks now so we have less of a worry about his long game stats this week. When you delve deeper into his play this week, he's actually gained strokes with his approach play in each of the past two rounds. His approach play has been excellent of late (1st at the Valero Texas Open for SG: Approach and 15th at The Masters for Greens in Regulation) and we're certainly kicking ourselves for not including him in our tips at the start of the week at 250/1. Finally, he's won twice in his last 46 starts, with both wins coming when he was 2 or more shots off the pace. All four of his career wins have come when he's trailed by two or more so he's a man to back when chasing.
Don't forget to check out our final round show which is available on YouTube (search for The Closing Stretch). It is also available as a podcast (search for The Closing Stretch with your normal podcast provider).
16 April 2022, 12:30pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Cantlay |
-9 |
| Streb |
-7 |
| Tringale |
-6 |
| Wise |
-6 |
| Van Rooyen |
-6 |
| Young |
-6 |
| Dahmen |
-6 |
Strong winds throughout the day caused players problems and the leaderboard has changed quite dramatically since the opening round.
For a long time it looked as if -6 would lead through 36 holes but four closing birdies from Patrick Cantlay has changed the complexion of this tournament. Cantlay took advantage of the wind dying down towards the end of the day to open up a two stroke lead going into the weekend.
Cantlay has been excellent tee to green this week, ranking 1st for SG: Tee to Green and 3rd for SG: Approach. He's now a best price of 6/4 and he's going to be tough to beat from here.
In Cantlay's favour is the fact the last two 36 hole leaders have went on to win. However, the three winners before then all came from outside the top 5 at halfway.
The weather forecast suggests thunderstorms may interrupt play the next two days. With that in mind, caution is advised in case the tournament is shortened to 54 holes.
Round 3 Bet
With thunderstorms potentially disrupting play we're happy to sit on our hands for the time being and see how the 3rd round plays out. We aren't keen to oppose Cantlay give the way he has played the first two days and with the weather bringing a shortened tournament into the equation, we're content to cheer on our existing bets further down the leaderboard.
15 April 2022, 8:45am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Young |
-8 |
| Niemann |
-6 |
| Straka |
-5 |
| Conners |
-5 |
| Cantlay |
-5 |
| McDowell |
-5 |
| Lowry |
-5 |
| Svensson |
-5 |
| Periera |
-5 |
Cameron Young fired a morning 63 to lead by two after the opening round at Harbour Town.
Young bounced back from a missed cut at last week's Masters to record a bogey free round and in truth it could well have been lower such was the control he had. He's now 8/1 joint favourite to win.
Joaquinn Niemann shares joint favouritism with Young after firing the best score of the afternoon starters. The pair ranked 1st and 2nd for SG: Tee to Green yesterday and it's hard to make a strong case against them. They also battled it out for the Genesis Invitational earlier this year with Niemann coming out on top. We'd slightly prefer Niemann at the prices but Young is a player who will win sooner rather than later on the PGA Tour.
This tournament has a history of winners coming from off the pace and there is plenty of quality tucked in behind the leaders. Patrick Cantlay (17/2), Shane Lowry (9/1) and Corey Conners (12/1) were all impressive yesterday but all three have afternoon tee times and we're happy to watch from afar today and see how they fare.
As we mentioned in the Preview, the past two winners at Harbour Town have been inside the top three after the opening 18 holes. However, the three winners before them were all outside the top 30 after the first round. With that in mind, we're happy to chance some larger odds selections ahead of round two.
The morning starters look like they will get the best of it in round two with the wind around 12mph first thing before reaching 17mph in the afternoon.
Round 2 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Adam Svensson 50/1 @ Unibet (1/5 1-5)
Adam shot the joint 2nd best score of the afternoon starters yesterday and will go out in the slightly calmer morning conditions today. His approach play was excellent in round 1, ranking 7th SG: Approach. He's very much a player on the up, having won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour last season and posted a couple of top 10 finishes on the PGA Tour already this year. We're happy to play him at 50/1.
- 0.5pts Each Way JT Poston 125/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-6)
We were close to including Chad Ramey in today's tips but JT's superior price and course record ultimately tipped the scales in his favour. Poston has recorded two top 8 finishes in three starts at Harbour Town so it's clearly a course he enjoys. An opening round of 68 in the breezier afternoon conditions was a solid effort and he will go out in the 5th group this morning. Stats yesterday were solid, ranking 15th for both SG: Approach and SG: Tee to Green. He lost strokes on the greens yesterday but he's historically putted well on these greens (11th, 10th and 35th SG: Putting in his three previous starts) so we're hopeful he holes a few more over the next three days.
- 0.25pts Each Way Jim Herman 1000/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
Finally, we can't resist a small bet on Jim Herman. We landed Jim at 300/1 when he last won on the PGA Tour (2020 Wyndham Championship) and we're willing to take a chance on him again after an opening round of 69. His stats were excellent in round 1, hitting all but one fairway, ranking 10th for SG: Approach and 17th in SG: Tee to Green. The putter was the only thing holding him back and we're happy to risk he finds some form with the flat stick at odds of 1000/1.
