Event Info
Starts: 10th June 2021
Course: Congaree GC
Par: 71
Length: 7,655 yards
2020 Champion: N/A
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: +23pts
Pre-Event Bets: +31.5pts
0.75pts EW JT Poston 80/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW David Lipsky 125/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Robby Shelton 175/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Sam Ryder 225/1 @ Ladbrokes (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Hudson Swafford 300/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-8)
In-Play Bets: -8.5pts
11 June 2021(-3pts)
1pt EW Chez Reavie 55/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-5)
0.5pts EW Will Gordon 125/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-5)
12 June 2021(-5.5pts)
2.5pts Chez Reavie to beat Erik Van Rooyen 13/10 @ William Hill
3pts Patrick Rodgers to beat Nick Taylor EVS @ Boylesports (Mythical 2 ball)
Preview
Course Info
Designer: Tom Fazio
Used Since: 2021
Fairways: Bermudagrass
Greens: Bermudagrass
Water Hazards: In-play on 10 holes.
Par 5's: 2nd, 4th and 12th
Premium on: Approach play
Significant Info
Fazio designed this course to be like the Sandbelt courses in Australia. This means that there is no rough but plenty of sand!
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals, Jon Rahm was case in point last week.
Weather
Dry the first two days but thunderstorms are possible over the weekend.
Thursday
Partly cloudy, max winds 7mph.
Friday
Partly cloudy, max winds 11mph.
Saturday
Scattered thunderstorms, max winds 8mph.
Sunday
Scattered thunderstorms, max winds 6mph.
Trends
This course is being used for the first time so we have no trends to analyse.
Notable Quotes
With this being the first event played here, we have no stats available to us. Some quotes give us an insight however,
"It's a lot different this week. We have got a lot of rain in the area recently, as everybody in the area noticed, and this place is usually super firm, super fast, greens are very, very quick, and it's kind of what makes the place the way it is. So it's very different right now, soft conditions, greens are spinning a lot more, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if come Thursday it's firm and fast, but right now it's pretty soft, so we're getting ready for that." Bryson Nimmer
"I think it's just, it's very different in the sense that it's definitely a little bit more open off the tee. I think Bluffton, Hilton Head are very tree lined, definitely some different sight lines, you're always aiming at the big pine trees at the end of the fairways or a bunker or something like that. But out here it's kind of like a rolling design, everything's running off, you really have to be very particular with what you're aiming at, kind of visualizing where the ball's going to land, where it's going to roll. It's just, it's a whole different beast and I'm excited to get to play it this week." Bryson Nimmer
“I played nine holes for the first time (Tuesday) and the fairways are generally wider compared to other golf courses. There is not much rough around the greens and I feel comfortable out here. I didn’t find any difficulties on the nine which I played and I think my game will do well here.” Sungjae Im
"I'm really excited about Congaree. I'm a professional ambassador there, so one of my favorite places to go practice, and I think guys are going to love it down there, as well." Kevin Kisner (quote from 2021 RBC Heritage)
"I think guys are going to be in for rude awakening at Congaree in June, how hot and the sand gnats that will be on full-on attack down there. Hopefully we can steer clear of the afternoon thunderstorm that is regularly predictable that time of year and have some really great conditions for golf and hopefully steer away from 110-degree heat indexes." Kevin Kisner (quote from 2021 RBC Heritage)
"I don't know exactly if I'm going to play Congaree, but I've talked to a few players this week, and they all said it's really great, really tough, which I always like." Webb Simpson (quote from 2021 RBC Heritage)
In-play
The Palmetto Championship In-Play Blog
13th June 2021, 1.05pm
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Hadley | -14 |
| English | -10 |
| Higgo | -8 |
| Four Players Tied | -7 |
Chesson Hadley has surprised everyone, outplaying Dustin Johnson in round three, and now leads by four over Harris English. Both Hadley and English missed short birdie putts on the final hole this morning which may be significant at the end of the day.
As mentioned yesterday, Hadley’s performance has come out of nowhere as he hadn’t been in contention since 2019. He has missed his last four cuts, ranks 320th in the world, and is 151st in the FedEx Cup.
He is now rated odds-on to get the job done and the fact he only has one player – Harris English – within five shots, gives him an extremely good chance.
English has also been performing under his level for a few months now, partly due to a back injury sustained in March at The Players Championship. However it was only 5 months ago that he was sublime in the final round to take the Sentry Tournament of Champions, so should provide a threat to Hadley today. He is available at 10/3 which seems a tad short considering the task in hand.
Dustin Johnson will need some help from Hadley if he is to recover from a seven shot deficit. Odds of 12/1 are not for us. Garrick Higgo can’t be dismissed as he is capable of a birdie blitz that could ask a question. If you’re of the opinion Hadley will falter, he is fair price at 16/1 to take his winning habit to America.
Ultimately though, we would expect Hadley to hold on. Although four of them are on the Korn Ferry Tour, five worldwide wins will hold him in good stead and he should have enough to fend off the challengers. We’re happy to watch the final round unfold and save our powder for the US Open next week.
Round 4 Bets
- No Bets
12th June 2021, 08.05am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Hadley | -11 |
| Johnson | -9 |
| Tain Lee | -7 |
| Six players tied | -6 |
The blog has a very similar feeling to yesterday given a lesser name from the Tour leads the way but Dustin Johnson is the overwhelming favourite.
It's perhaps doing Chesson Hadley a disservice to describe him as a lesser name given he at least possesses a PGA Tour win. That win came in 2014 at the Puerto Rico Open but it's been an up and down few years since then. He lost his PGA Tour card in 2016 but bounced back immediately with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2017 and has been a PGA Tour regular ever since.
Hadley stated in his post round interview that he "definitely didn't see this coming" and at odds of 4/1 he's not one we're particularly keen to back. No top 10s anywhere since the US Open in June 2019 means he's been out of the limelight for a while. With all eyes on him and the world number one chasing him down, he surely won't maintain his current pace over the weekend.
Hadley would have been caught by Johnson were it not for a double bogey at his final hole. An errant drive, caused by the club slipping in his hand, was largely to blame for that particular mishap but that's definitely been the exception rather than the rule. DJ ranks 2nd SG: Tee To Green this week and it very much feels like this tournament is there for the taking.
Play could be interrupted today as thunderstorms are forecast throughout the afternoon. With any luck weather interruptions will cause DJ to lose his focus but that's certainly wishful thinking rather than any form of insightful analysis. With DJ likely to dominate we look to the two ball market for today's bets.
Round 3 Bets
- 2.5pts Chez Reavie to beat Erik Van Rooyen 13/10 @ William Hill
Reavie was our in-play selection yesterday and after following him closely again using shot tracker, we saw enough to back him to win this two ball today. He ranks 5th SG: Tee To Green this week and seems to have found his trademark accuracy off the tee once again (he ranks 1st Driving Accuracy this week). In contrast, Van Rooyen's performance this week has largely been built on his putting as he ranks 4th in that category but 29th SG: Tee To Green. The past few months have been tough for Reavie but we rate him over Van Rooyen and at 13/10 it's a value play.
- 3pts Patrick Rodgers to beat Nick Taylor EVS @ Boylesports (Mythical 2 ball)
Patrick leads the field in SG: Tee To Green this week and sits 10th on the leaderboard. Nick Taylor opened with the same score as Rodgers (67) but fell back yesterday with a round of 73. He ranks 33rd SG: Tee To Green this week and we think his inferior long game could well be the difference today. Neither player has a great Round 3 scoring average but Rodgers edges Taylor (158th v 177th). Rodgers has been striking the ball nicely for a few weeks without seeing any results and at even money, we're happy to take this mythical two ball bet.
11th June 2021, 10.05am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Roach | -7 |
| Johnson | -6 |
| Redman | -6 |
| Hadley | -6 |
| Van Rooyen | -6 |
Wes Roach leads but it is Dustin Johnson who is clear favourite to win the Palmetto Championship at Congaree. Johnson is a general 9/4 to win from here and it's not hard to see why.
Johnson ranked 1st SG: Tee To Green and it's worrying for the field that he shot 65 without picking up shots at any of the par 5s. He spoke of how he's "swinging it well" in his post round interview and if he continues to hole putts as he did in Round 1, the rest of the field are playing for second place.
With Johnson lurking ominously, today's bets are primarily focused on each way returns. One bet we would advise if you can get it is the 90/1 on Sam Ryder at Unibet. We advised Sam pre-event at 225/1 and he started off with a 4 under par 67. He ranked 8th SG: Tee To Green yesterday and can go well again today. We don't put him up as an official bet as Unibet have gone 90/1 whilst the rest of the market is 66/1.
The forecast is to be dry with the wind forecast to peak at 11mph in the afternoon.
Round 2 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Chez Reavie 55/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-5)
Chez was in our thoughts pre-event due to his excellent performance at US Open sectional qualifying earlier in the week (he topped the qualifier in Ohio). We opted not to include him in our pre-event picks but a solid start has re-ignited our interest. He ranked 6th for SG: Approach in Round 1 and 55/1 seems reasonable for a player who was a regular fixture inside the top 50 in the world between 2019-2020.
- 0.5pts Each Way Will Gordon 125/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-5)
Will was 4th SG: Off The Tee and 22nd for SG: Tee To Green. He's a player who impressed last year when finishing 3rd to Dustin Johnson at the Travelers Championship. His results have been fairly mediocre this year but it appears he's taken to Congaree and being a course that is new to everyone, he isn't at a disadvantage this week. We're happy to chance the promising youngster at big odds. Note - 150/1 is available with Bet365 but it is only 4 each way places, we'd prefer the 5 places at Skybet.
