Mexico Open at Vidanta 2022

Event Info

Starts: 28th April 2022
Course: The Signature Course
Par: 71
Length: 7,456 yards
2021 Champion: N/A - New Event

Preview
In-play

Preview

Course Info

Designer: Greg Norman
Used Since: Debut
Fairways: Wide
Rough: Minimal
Greens: Paspalum, 12 on Stimp.
Water Hazards: On 13 holes, particularly on 6th & 7th
Par 5's: 6th, 12th, 14th and 18th
Premium on: Distance, strong wind players.

Significant Info

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.

Wind should blow all day, usually picks up around 2-3pm. Afternoon conditions should be tougher.

The course is at sea level, so altitude is not so much of a factor meaning the course plays long.

There have been a number of WGC's played in Mexico.

Weather

Thursday
Sunny all day, wind picking up to 12mph (likely afternoon)
Friday
Sunny all day, wind picking up to 12mph (likely afternoon)
Saturday
Sunny all day, wind picking up to 13mph (likely afternoon)
Sunday
Sunny all day, wind picking up to 12mph (likely afternoon)

Trends

Winning Score
The tournament director has predicted -18, but that should be treated with caution.

Course Form
New event so we don't know yet how vital course form is.

Recent Form
New event so we don't know yet how vital recent form is.

World Ranking
New event so we don't know yet how vital world ranking is.

Nationality
N/A.

Correlating Courses
The World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba is the other event played in Mexico on tour, both are played on Paspalum grass and designed by Greg Norman but this week's course is more than 400 yards longer and more emphasis on distance over accuracy here.

Stats Analysis

We have no stats to analyse at this course.

In Play

Tough Holes
TBC

Birdie Holes
The 7th is a driveable par 4, but water is in play so it's very much risk/reward.

Closing Stretch
16th is a 500+ yard par 4, 17th is 226 yard par 3 with water all on the left but the 548 yard 18th should offer a great birdie/eagle opportunity.

Fast or Slow Start
No stats available from previous events.

Players We Almost Backed

Matt Jones 50/1
Matt was the last name off our squad this week with sneaky long distance off the tee and a fine wind player, Matt is having a terrific year and should go well but others were preferred.

Taylor Moore 66/1
Taylor has been somewhat of a Mexico specialist on the Korn Ferry Tour but his odds are slim enough.

Adam Svensson 110/1
Adam is an attractive price in a weak field. He's perhaps a fraction short off the tee for this week's test and others ultimately preferred.

Grayson Murray 500/1
Winner of the 2017 Barbasol Championship, he's a player who's had his off course problems. A long hitter, he finished 3rd in Puerto Rico last year and posted a top 26 finish on his last start.

In-play

Mexico Open In-Play Blog

1 May 2022,13:20pm (UK time)

Player	Total
Rahm	-15
Champ	-13
Kitayama	-13
Rodgers	-12
Lashley	-12
Rlley	-12
Smalley	-11
Five Players Tied	-10

Despite momentarily losing his lead on the back nine, Jon Rahm now leads by two thanks to a birdie on the last and several mistakes by Cameron Champ in his final holes. He is now 4/7 favourite to finish the job.

Obviously, Rahm should be expected to close it out from here. He didn't make a putt all day yesterday and although not producing his best stuff with his approach play, he had countless mid-range opportunities that slipped by. On the flip side, he was lucky to stay dry on a couple of holes and still looks capable of a few stray shots, which could be costly.

Rahm hasn't won since the US Open last year and his recent record in contention shows he has performed better from off the pace rather than leading. He co-led at the Tournament of Champions in January but couldn't get the job done, losing out to Smith. Again, in August 2021, he co-led the Northern trust, bogeying two of his last four holes to finish two behind.

He has also let a chance slip at the Farmers this year when beginning the last round one off the lead and there is definitely enough concern to not be considering backing at 4/7. Owners of Rahm tickets pre-event are in a great position though and he should have enough.

Rahm will be worried most about our pre-event 50/1 play Cameron Champ who isn't scared of winning, nor will he be intimidated by Rahm having played with him for 3 days so far. Apart from a dodgy drive on the 1st, Champ's round yesterday was a masterclass until the 15th fairway, where he short sided himself with a wedge and then went on to do something similar on 16 from a good drive too.

It may be hard to come back from that mentally and he will need a strong start to do so. Champ is a better front runner than he is a chaser, maybe because he has a habit of being over aggressive when chasing. Had he been in the lead today, we would have been keen to take Rahm on again but we will watch in hope rather than expectation that he wins today.

Kitayama is on the same score as Champ, two back from Rahm, his putting has been impressive this week but as we saw on the 10th yesterday, he looks like he's missing a lot of drives right and is likely to make enough mistakes today to cost him. He did well enough in contention at Honda but 10/1 to beat Rahm from two behind seems about right.

The group at 12 under par can't be ruled out yet with another one of our pre-events, 66/1 Davis Riley, the pick of them. He has bags of talent and performed admirably at Valspar when losing out to Sam Burns. That could be valuable experience and we like his chances of giving Rahm a challenge today.

He is preferred to Lashley who's only PGA Tour win to date was won with a comfortable 54 hole lead and he may find it hard to back up that low round yesterday. The other man at 12 under is worth a small investment which we discuss below.

Round 4 Bets

1pt Each Way Patrick Rodgers 20/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-3)

Rodgers is three back of Rahm which could play into his hands today as he is yet to win on tour. The pressure is completely off him and he has been barely talked about but has three 2nd places on tour and has the power to score well today. One of those 2nd places in 2018 he finished with a 62 to make a playoff and he can adapt an aggressive approach today to outplay his odds.

1pt Grayson Murray Top 20 Finish 3/1 @ William Hill

Grayson was in our thoughts pre-event at 500/1 having performed well in Puerto Rico last year and recorded a good finish lat time out on the Korn Ferry Tour. The decision not to advise him to subscribers was justified when he opened with a round of 73. However, rounds of 67 and 66 have followed and he now finds himself in 24th position, one shot off the top 20. Yesterday's round was bogey free and he missed a number of putts inside 10ft. A long hitter of the ball, he can make further progress up the leaderboard and 3/1 for a top 20 is fair.

+ - Round 3 Bets Click to collapse

30 April 2022,11:45am (UK time)

Player	Total
Rahm	-12
Smalley	-10
Long	-9
Novak	-9
Champ	-9
Reed	-9
Mullinax	-9
Hagy	-9

Jon Rahm has opened up a two shot lead at the top of leaderboard and has now moved odds on to win the Mexico Open at Vidanta.

The wind once again caused issues in the afternoon, but scoring was better than round one and six of the top eight played Early-Late in rounds one and two.

Rahm is a best price 4/5 to win from here and it's hard to build a case against him. He's putting well and ranks 3rd in SG: Tee to Green so far this week. Unsurprisingly, he was pleased with both his ball striking and putting after yesterday's round.

If we were to highlight the negatives, we'd point out the fact he's been average when in contention of late. Since his US Open win last year, he's let several winning opportunities slip away. These are outlined in his Player Profile.

Alex Smalley is the player closest to Rahm and he's available at 14/1. Smalley was 2nd only three starts ago in Puntacana and there's every chance he hangs about over the weekend. However, he's yet to win as a pro and it would be a big ask for him to defeat Rahm for his first title.

There are six players in the group at nine under par. One of those players is Cameron Champ, our 50/1 pre-event selection. He's been excellent off the tee this week but hasn't quite had his irons firing. He's capable of mounting a challenge if he can improve that aspect of his game over the final 36 holes.

Patrick Reed is the other notable name in that group. He's the 2nd favourite at 12/1 and given he's gaining strokes with all aspects of his game, he'll likely make sure Rahm doesn't have it all his own way over the weekend.

Weather for the 3rd round will be dry with the wind set to pick up to around 13mph in the afternoon (gusts may be higher). The morning starters will have the best of conditions again.

Round 3 Bets

No bet

We aren't keen to take on Jon Rahm in the outright market as it stands. We have each way interest in the form of Cameron Champ, Davis Riley and Brice Garnett from our outright selections so we're happy to cheer them on.

If you have access to Unibet, you may wish to consider a small double on Cameron Champ (9/5) and Matt Wallace (11/4) winning their 3 balls in round 3. The prices are larger than other bookmakers and in our opinion, they are both too big. Wallace is 1st SG: Approach this week and Champ ranks 2nd for SG: Off the Tee and both recorded rounds of 66 yesterday. The double plays 19/2.

+ - Round 2 Bets Click to collapse

29 April 2022, 9:35am (UK time)

Player	Total
Byrd	-7
Rahm	-7
Todd	-7
Mullinax	-7
Nimmer	-7
Kitayama	-7
Four players tied	-6

Jon Rahm opened with a round of 64 and is now the 15/8 favourite to win the Mexico Open at Vidanta.

Rahm declared after yesterday's round that he was "especially comfortable" off the tee this week and that's an ominous sign for the rest of the field. That being said, we can't back him at 15/8 given he plays in the harder afternoon conditions today. If we look to get Rahm onside it will be after today's round.

Only three of the top 20 after round one played in the afternoon conditions and Rahm himself noted how different the course can play once the wind gets up. Rahm was quoted as saying,

"There's a big difference between morning and afternoon. We had no wind for 13, 14 holes, it's very, very scorable. Once the wind starts going 20, 30 miles an hour, this golf course starts showing some teeth. It's long, you have a couple really long par 4s, 4 and 8 straight into the wind, both of them 500 yards, so you can start seeing higher scores out there."

It's perhaps telling that the only two other players under 20/1 in the betting are Aaron Wise (12/1) and Brendon Todd (18/1). Both players played nicely in the opening round but both players now face the trickier afternoon conditions and offer little value in our opinion.

Gary Woodland was under consideration as an outright selection after a promising opening round of 67. He's available at 25/1 and given his morning tee time, it's not unreasonable.

Weather for the 2nd round will be dry with the wind set to pick up to around 13mph in the afternoon (gusts may be higher). The morning starters will have the best of conditions again.

Round 2 Bet

1.5pts Win Only Kurt Kitayama TO BE 2ND ROUND LEADER 12/1 @ Unibet

With Rahm dominating the outright market, we're keen to dip into the 2nd round leader market. Kurt is the only player at seven under par who plays in the easier morning conditions in round 2. He was first round leader at the Honda Classic earlier this year and followed that up with a credible round of 69. A past winner on the European Tour, he's a capable player. His first career win also came wire to wire so he's shown he can back up a low opening round with another. His stats were solid yesterday (15th SG: Tee to Green) and we're happy to play him at anything 11/1 or above.

0.75pts Each Way Scott Brown TO BE 2ND ROUND LEADER 33/1 @ Unibet (1/5 1-4)

Scott shot six under par yesterday and will go out in the first group this morning. As Jon Rahm alluded to, the earlier, the better in terms of tee times and Brown is a big price to take the 2nd round lead. He lost his way somewhat last season, but his results have been more encouraging this season and we shouldn't forget he's played well in the past at coastal events like Puerto Rico and Mayakoba. His long game stats weren't ideal yesterday but the price is big enough in our opinion to warrant an investment.

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