Preview
Starts: 4th July 2024
Course: TPC Deere Run
Par: 71
Length: 7,289 yards
2023 Champion: Sepp Straka
2024 John Deere Classic Tips
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Course Info
Designer: D.A. Weibring
Type of Course: Resort
Used Since: 1971
Fairways: Wide, Bentgrass
Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass with Fine Fescue
Greens: Large, Bentgrass
Par 5's: 2nd, 10th and 17th
Premium on: Birdies, Putting, GIR
2024 John Deere Classic Trends
Winning score
Birdies, birdies and more birdies. Only once since 2014 has the winning score been worse than -19 (in 2017 it was -18) and the lowest score was -27 by Michael Kim in 2018.
Winning Profile
Sepp Strka was world number 37 prior to winning last year. J.T. Poston was world number 99 prior to his win in 2022. Lucas Glover was ranked 115th in the world when winning in 2021, whilst 2019 champion, Dylan Frittelli, was 133rd in the world (note - there was no event in 2020 due to Covid). Michael Kim provided a shock when winning in 2108. Kim was world number 473, with only a couple of top 10's on tour prior to winning. The winners before him - Bryson DeChambeau, Ryan Moore, Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman and Steve Stricker - were all established tour players.
Course form
Straka had played in this event twice previously and posted a best finish of 26th. Poston had an abysmal course record, having never bettered 64th place in four starts at this event prior to winning. Glover had a solid course record with previous finishes of 10-25-15. Frittelli was a debutant and Kim had two finishes of 71-47 prior. Steve Stricker famously won three years in a row between 2009-2011. Course form preferred but not mandatory here.
Recent form
Only two winners in the last 12 years arrived in red hot form - Jordan Spieth in 2015 and J.T. Poston in 2022. Lucas Glover was in average form in 2021, Frittelli arrived with form of 46-46-MC in 2019 and Kim was on a run of missed cuts in 2018. Recent form is not a big factor here.
Nationality
Sepp Straka and Dylan Frittelli were the only non-American winners here since 2010.
2024 John Deere Classic Stats Analysis
We will look at the stats of the last seven winners here.
SG: Off The Tee
Straka was 7th, Poston was 15th, Glover was 29th, Frittelli was 10th, Kim 34th, DeChambeau 17th and Moore 23rd. A solid driver is preferred.
Driving Distance
30-93-32-27-21-34. Don't need to be a bomber but hitting it far helps.
Driving Accuracy
9-41-7-2-32-12. Hitting fairways appears to lead to success here despite the wide targets.
SG: Approach
18-10-3-60-11-22-2. Apart from Frittelli, generally important here.
Greens in Regulation
2-3-20-10-3-11-1. Very important to hit greens regularly this week.
SG: Around The Green
34-1-17-2-47-38-32. Not essential.
SG: Putting
4-31-19-2-1-2-8. A hot putter is key to win here.
2024 John Deere Classic In-Play Advice
Fast or Slow Start
J.T. Poston led from start to finish in 2022 but it is possible to make up ground after a slow start. Last year's winner, Sepp Straka, was eleven shots behind after round one! Jordan Spieth was eight shots behind after the opening round in 2015 and six back after the opening round for his 2013 win. Zach Johnson was seven shots back after round one in 2012 and Lucas Glover was five shots back in 2021.
It is possible to play catch up from halfway, Straka was seven shots behind, Frittelli and Spieth (twice) were five shots back and Zach Johnson was four shots behind. However, five of the last nine winners were leading heading into the final round.
Closing stretch
The 16th is a relatively easy 167 yard par 3, 17th is an easy par 5 and 18th is a tough par 4.
2024 John Deere Classic Tips
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In-play
2024 John Deere Classic In-Play Blog
7th July 2024, 12.25pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Thompson |
-21 |
| Rai |
-19 |
| Cole |
-19 |
| Pan |
-17 |
| Springer |
-17 |
| Three Players Tied |
-16 |
2024 John Deere Classic Round 3 Conditions
Sunny intervals with a stronger breeze than round one.
2024 John Deere Classic Round 4 Weather Bias?
Possible rain showers and thunderstorms but the wind isn't expected to blow more than 10mph at any point.
Round 3 Outright Market Summary
Davis Thompson is the general even money favourite to win. Thompson leads the field in SG: Tee to Green so far this week and posted consecutive top ten finishes coming into this week, with last week's runner up finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic particularly impressive. Thompson has yet to win on the PGA Tour but this looks to be a great opportunity for him to breakthrough.
Thompson has only held the 54 hole lead on three occasions in his fledgling career, with a 33% conversion rate. His sole 54 hole lead on the PGA Tour was at the The American Express last year where he put up a decent showing against Jon Rahm. Someone is likely to need to shoot a low score to better Thompson rather than the leader throw it away.
We'll be cheering on Eric Cole, who was advised to subscribers at 50/1 pre-event. Cole is much preferred to Aaron Rai out of the two players immediately behind the leader.
Eye Catching Niche Market Prices - John Deere Classic
Aaron Rai to shoot over 66.5 - 4/6 @ Bet365
Rai has been reliant on his putter so far this week (he comfortably tops the SG: Putting stats) but those putts may dry up as he plays in the final group attempting to win on the PGA Tour for the first time. A final round 72 last week wasn't a convincing effort and it will be a big ask for him to shoot 66 in today's final round given the situation.
John Deere Classic In-Play Picks - Round 4 Bets
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6th July 2024, 8.25am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Pan |
-14 |
| Rai |
-14 |
| Hall |
-13 |
| Four Players Tied |
-12 |
2024 John Deere Classic Round 2 Conditions
Sunny intervals with a stronger breeze than round one.
2024 John Deere Classic Round 3 Weather Bias?
No significant bias for the early starters with sunny intervals and a wind of 6-8mph throughout.
Round 3 Outright Market Summary
Aaron Rai is 4/1 favourite but that seems mightily short to us for a player who has yet to win on the PGA Tour and hasn't always looked convincing when in contention. A final round 72 at last week's Rocket Mortgage Classic was far from convincing and Rai looks opposable given the low scoring nature of this event and the fact there are 26 players within four shots of him and co-leader, CT Pan.
Eye Catching Niche Market Prices - John Deere Classic
Andrew Novak to shoot under 69.5 - 8/13 @ Bet365
Novak has opened with rounds of 67 and 64 and the 67 could have been even better were it not for a triple bogey 7 on the 11th hole. He has placed inside the top 20 in his two starts coming into this event and five of his eight career rounds at TPC Deere Run have been better than 69.
John Deere Classic In-Play Picks - Round 3 Bets
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5th July 2024,10.25am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Springer |
-12 |
| Valimaki |
-10 |
| Cole |
-9 |
| Four Players Tied |
-8 |
2024 John Deere Classic Round 1 Conditions
Overcast with very little breeze.
2024 John Deere Classic Round 2 Weather Bias?
The wind looks set to pick up in the afternoon at 14mph with the morning starters enjoying calmer conditions of 7mph at 7am. Early starters are preferred.
Round 2 Outright Market Summary
Davis Thompson is the only man in single figures, closely followed by leader Hayden Springer and our 50/1 pre-event play Eric Cole. The forecast suggests the leader should be taken on and Thompson looks reasonably priced at 17/2 given his hot form at the moment. Cole looked in great shape yesterday and we're confident he will be contending over the weekend - 10/1 is still available which also feels backable if you're not on yet.
Eye Catching Niche Market Prices - John Deere Classic
Justin Lower to miss the cut - 6/4 @ Bet365
Lower is currently on four under par but has to play in the trickier afternoon conditions. With the cut line currently three under par, he may have his work cut out by the time he tees off, and he also relied on the putter yesterday to put his score together.
John Deere Classic In-Play Picks - Round 2 Bets
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