Event Info
Starts: 11th November 2021
Course: Memorial Park Golf Club, Texas
Par: 70
Length: 7,412 yards
2020 Champion: Carlos Ortiz
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -11.5pts
Pre-Event Bets: -9.5pts
1.5pts EW Adam Scott 30/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-8)
0.75pts EW Sebastian Munoz 80/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Cameron Davis 90/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Martin Laird 125/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Keith Mitchell 140/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
0.5pts EW Denny McCarthy 150/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Greyson Sigg 175/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
In-Play Bets: -2pts
12 November 2021(-4pts)
0.75pts EW Adam Long 66/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-5)
0.75pts EW Erik Van Rooyen 70/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-5)
0.5pts EW Andrew Landry 175/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-5)
13 November 2021(+4pts)
1pt EW Kramer Hickok 28/1 @ Boylesports (1/4 1-4)
1pt EW Keith Mitchell 33/1 @ Betway (1/4 1-4)
14 November 2021(-2pts)
1pt EW Martin Trainer 28/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-4)
Preview
Course Info
Course Designer: John Bredemus 1935, with Tom Doak renovation 2019.
Tournament played here since: 2020
Type of Course: Parkland
Fairways: Wide, tree lined.
Greens: Large, Bermuda, tight grass slopes and contours waiting should you miss the greens.
Par 5's: 3rd, 8th and 16th
Water Hazards: In play on four holes.
Premium on: Putting
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Trends
Winning Score
Carlos Ortiz won with a score of -13 last year.
Course Form
Nobody had any course form last year as it was a new course.
Recent Form
Ortiz finished 35th in his last start pror to his win. However, that came at the 78 man ZOZO Championship which had no cut. Everyone in the top 6 had recorded a top 40 finish in their last start.
World Ranking
Ortiz was 159th when he won last year.
First Round Tee Time
Ortiz teed off on Thursday morning last year. Three of the top 6 teed off in the morning and the other three teed off in the afternoon.
Weather
Thursday
Sunny with wind peaking at 14mph.
Friday
Sunny with wind peaking at 10mph.
Saturday
Sunny with wind peaking at 11mph.
Sunday
Sunny with wind peaking at 11mph.
Stats Analysis
SG: Off The Tee
The top 6 last year ranked 47-15-2-50-10-110 in this category. Not essential to drive the ball brilliantly this week.
Driving Distance
The top 6 last year ranked 26-71-4-37-14-78 in this category.
Driving Accuracy
The top 6 last year ranked 76-9-19-73-62-108 in this category. Accuracy off the tee was not important despite the quotes below.
SG: Approach
The top 6 last year ranked 21-23-24-32-83-2 in this category. Strong iron play is preferred to strong driving.
Greens In Regulation
The top 6 last year ranked 9-16-1-72-34-9 in this category.
SG: Around The Green
The top 6 last year ranked 3-18-38-17-37-75 in this category. The firm undulating greens put a premium on a decent short game.
SG: Putting
The top 6 last year ranked 5-11-20-8-2-4 in this category. A hot putter is essential.
Par 3 Performance
Four of the top 6 ranked 7th or better for Par 3 Performance. Memorial Park has five par 3s and we shouldn't underestimate the importance of a strong week on the short holes.
In Play
Fast or Slow Start
Ortiz was 2nd after the first round. Three of the eventual top 6 were inside the top 8 after the opening round.
Tough Holes
The 14th, 1st and 8th holes played as the hardest holes last year.
Easy Holes
The par 5s on the front nine (3rd and 8th) played under par but note the par 5 on the back nine (16th) played over par. Aside from the par 5s, the par 3 2nd hole played as the 3rd easiest hole.
Quotes
"My caddie went around the front nine, he said the greens are real undulated and very firm. When you put in new bermuda, it's extremely firm and I'm assuming Tee-Scripts.com 2 that's what the greens on the course are going to be like because the course is pretty much brand new. So I think it will be challenging hitting approach shots into these greens just the way they'll be bouncing and it should be a fun, exciting week." Scottie Scheffler - November 2020
"You can get into some spots where you start playing ping pong across these greens, it's brutal. Fairways and greens is definitely at a premium this week." Scottie Scheffler - November 2020
"I would say the grass is somewhat similar to the Golf Club of Houston, but the golf course is very, very different. It's a tough golf course to learn in a week. It's got a lot of undulating -- a lot of movement around the greens." Lanto Griffin - November 2020
"The golf course is good. It's a big golf course, it's long, so I mean, I think -- and you've got to be on your game. The greens got a lot of slope and undulation in them, so you've got to hit it in the right spots if you want to have any kind of look at birdie. If you miss greens, you're going to have a really tough time making pars, especially if you're in the wrong spot. So yeah, I mean, the golf course, I think it's going to play fairly difficult. It's a long golf course, you hit a lot of mid to long irons. You don't get many wedges in your hand out here." Dustin Johnson - November 2020
"I think it's the firmness of the greens more than anything else. It's very long. There were a few tees were put forward that made it a little more manageable than it was during the practice rounds; you're playing every tee right at the back. And there's a lot of holes out there from the very back tees and it becomes a very long course. So I think it's already quite long, but it's more the firmness of the greens. If you're not in the fairway, you can't really hold them, so driving becomes very important. You go drive it down there a long way so you can spin it. It's just the ability to get the ball near the hole, and the penalty for just missing on the wrong side becomes really big because the ball just rolls away. It's been a while since I've played a course on Tour that's really done that and it's great, it reminds me a lot of back in Australia." Cameron Davis - November 2020
"It's a tricky golf course, no question. It's got length, you've got to hit it in the fairway here to score and I actually scored it quite nice. I don't feel like I hit it great, but was able to get up and down when I needed to and still turn in an under-par round." Tony Finau - November 2020
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers. If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.
Joaquin Niemann 30/1
Joaquin was under serious consideration given how well he plays Par 3s and there are five of them this week at Memorial Park. Second in par 3 scoring so far this season, he was 7th in that category for the 2021 season also. His recent form has been more than solid, a 5th place finish last week the highlight of recent efforts. Third for total driving last week and 28th for Greens in regulation show just how strong his game is.
Gary Woodland 80/1
We were on Gary last week and although he missed the cut we thought he may be worth backing again. A Texas resident, his driving of late has been impressive. Even though he missed the cut last week, his Total Driving stats were inside the top 10. Ninth two starts ago at he CJ Cup, Gary is a big price considering his pedigree and the fact he's now fully fit again.
Davis Riley 200/1
Davis missed the cut on the number last week at Mayakoba but did finish 7th the week before in Bermuda. He has a strong record in this part of the world, having won the San Antonio Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020 and has recorded a 29th place finish at the AT& T Byron Nelson in 2019. Like Greyson Sigg, he's a player we have marked out to be a future winner on the PGA Tour and this event represents a good opportunity for him. His long game stats have been solid, if unspectacular, the past few weeks and this Texas resident could go well this week.
In-play
Hewlett Packard Houston Open In-Play Blog
14 November 2021, 10:10am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Scheffler | -7 |
| Tway | -6 |
| Trainer | -6 |
| Hickok | -6 |
| Wolff | -6 |
| Vegas | -6 |
| Three players tied | -5 |
A topsy turvy Saturday at a firmed up Memorial Park saw the lead change several times and the leaders struggle. The lead is now seven under par, three shots less than it was after the 2nd round.
It looked like Matt Wolff was going to finish the day with a one shot lead and take favouritism into the final round. However, a careless double bogey at the driveable par 4 17th hole saw him slip back to -6. Wolff is now 2nd favourite in the betting at 6/1.
Wolff has been disappointing of late under pressure, performing poorly when leading last week in Mayakoba and several weeks ago at the Shriners. His error at 17 was characteristic of the mistakes under pressure of late and he's not for us at the odds.
Wolff's slip up handed the lead to Scottie Scheffler and the young American will never have a better chance to win his first PGA Tour title. He's 5/2 to win from here but must do better than previous efforts. He has a 2⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating and we won't be backing him. There have been far too many shaky performances under pressure to warrant support at that price.
Yesterday's leader, Martin Trainer, was incredibly scrappy back nine and he'll need to find his form from day one and two to have any chance. His sole win on the PGA Tour was from two shots back going into the final round, so he knows how to chase.
Trainer's third round playing partner, Kevin Tway, is another who struggled over the closing holes. He pitched the ball into water from 25 yards on the 17th and then an unfortunate drive (swing impeded by a small tree) on the 18th caused another bogey. Like Trainer, he is a past winner on Tour but he hasn't been in contention for a while and he's one we think may fall away today.
Yesterday's in-play pick, Kramer Hickok, is another in the group at six under. The Texan has played nicely tee to green this week, ranking 3rd SG: Tee To Green. Unlucky to lose out at The Travelers earlier in the year, we'd expect him to mount a challenge today.
Jhonatan Vegas is the final member of the group at six under and the local resident will hope to win in front of friends and family. Three runner up finishes this year indicate how well he's played and it certainly wouldn't be a surprise to see him win for a 4th time on Tour.
Round 4 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Martin Trainer 28/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-4)
Those of you who follow us on Twitter will know we've been highlighting Martin for a couple of weeks now. Yesterday's round was a poor performance but it was always unlikely that he has the solidity to sustain four rounds of top class golf. His iron play dropped off significantly yesterday but it was the strength of his game the first two days and there's every reason to think we see a return to that now he's chasing. Scoring yesterday certainly helped him and he's more than capable of putting 18 holes together to snatch this. Finally, he's a proven winner, with a win on the PGA Tour in 2019 (Puerto Rico Open) and a career record of 4 wins from 152 starts.
13 November 2021, 10:10am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Trainer | -10 |
| Tway | -9 |
| Kokrak (through 11) | -8 |
| Long | -7 |
| Three Players Tied | -6 |
Martin Trainer has surprised the field and leads by one over Kevin Tway at halfway, although several afternoon starters still have holes to play.
We are somewhat kicking ourselves not advising Trainer at monster odds this week, after highlighting value in a whopping price of 2500/1 last week at Mayakoba. A second round 69 at Bermuda was followed by a second round 69 in Mexico and he's been showing signs of improvement but no one was quite expecting this performance.
He is talking a good game too, after round he said “Last week I hit the ball really well for the first time in a long time and I just didn't putt very well". He seems to have the putter working well this week so far and odds of 14/1 are tempting.
Putting us off is the arrival of Jason Kokrak and Scottie Scheffler on the leaderboard. Kokrak in particular has to be respected - he has won twice in just over a year and is only two back with 7 holes remaining of his 2nd round. He is a justified 9/2 favourite.
Scheffler shot the round of the day yesterday but four behind Trainer and two back from Kokrak, we don't see any value in a price of 11/2.
Kevin Tway is Trainer's closest challenger but had two hole outs yesterday in his round of 64. He is a PGA Tour winner at the 2018 Safeway Open but has only had one top 10 since that win, back in 2019 so he is expected to drop back over the weekend.
With doubts over the leaders, we are happy to play a couple further back who we expect to challenge.
Round 3 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Kramer Hickok 28/1 @ Boylesports (1/4 1-4)
Hickok is four back and hitting the ball beautifully, ranking 2nd for approach and 4th tee to green. He is a player who's ready to breakthrough, shown by his playoff defeat to Harris English at the Travelers Championship in the summer. Considering he sits on the same score as Scheffler, he is a value play at almost four times the price.
- 1pt Each Way Keith Mitchell 33/1 @ Betway (1/4 1-4)
Mitchell is one further back at 5 under par and still has 5 holes to complete in round two. He ranks 5th off the green and 5th off the tee. We have already advised Keith at 150/1 pre-event and if you're not already on him, this is the time to. He was 3rd a few weeks ago at the CJ Cup, 5th at the 3M Open and 3rd at Wells Fargo this season - in other words, he's knocking on the door for his 2nd PGA Tour win.
{slider=Round 2 Bets}
12 November 2021, 10am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Leishman | -5 |
| Henley | -5 |
| Gooch | -5 |
| List (through 15) | -5 |
| Dufner | -4 |
| Six Players Tied | -3 |
A three hour delay in getting started yesterday means the afternoon starters are yet to finish their round, with some still to play 12 holes.
Luke List is the only one of the leaders still out on the course and he and the others should return to perfect conditions and minimal wind.
It was Marc Leishman who set the morning pace but a bogey on his last hole cost him solo lead. The Aussie's iron play was on point but we have concerns with his chipping and it will depend how many greens he can hit over the week how he progresses.
Henley was solid as you would expect and holed some nice long putts while Gooch has continued his hot form recently. There's not much to separate all three and the bookmakers agree with them all available between 8/1 and 10/1.
Last year we saw quite a difference in the round one leaderboard to the final result so it seems a good event for in-play runners. Coupled with the ideal conditions for the morning starters today, we have selected a couple of potential movers.
Round 2 Bets
- 0.75pts Each Way Adam Long 66/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-5)
Adam is on 3 under par through 11, with an up and down needed at the 12th. He arrived in steady form of 22-25-mc-29 so has been threatening to challenge recently. Finished 11th here last year on the back of some poor form so he seems to like the course and is worth chancing to give us a run for our money at these odds.
- 0.75pts Each Way Erik Van Rooyen 70/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-5)
Erik is one under through 9 holes with a 25ft birdie putt on the 10th. He is a beautiful driver of the ball which is perfect for this long demanding test and was 20th here last year. Finished 5th and 7th in the Fed Ex Cup series events earlier this year after he won his maiden PGA tour title at Barracuda in a weaker field, he is a player who can challenge in this company.
- 0.5pts Each Way Andrew Landry 175/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-5)
Landry is two under par through 10 but he is just off the green on the par 3 11th. Even if he is to bogey, 175/1 represents incredible value for a man who was 7th last week in Mexico and 4th two starts ago at Sanderson Farms. He's a player we respect and is must play for us at those odds.
