Preview

Course Info

Tournament played here since: 2014
Type of Course: Classic, tree lined.
Fairways:  Tight, tree lined.
Rough:  Kentucky Bluegrass, not too penal.
Greens:  Small, Narrow, Average Pace, Undulating, Poa-annua.
Water:  In-play on 2 holes, 11 and 15.
Par 5's:  5th, 9th, 16th and 18th
Premium on:  Strong iron play and scrambling.

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals. It's also the start of a new season on the PGA Tour so some players may be playing with a fresh mindset. 

Trends

Winning Score: Cink's winning score of -21 was by far the best recent one. The previous five editions were between -14 and -18. 

Course Form: 3 of the last 7 winners were debutants and Kevin Tway had never recorded a top 40 in numerous attempts beforehand.  Brendan Steele had recorded finishes of 7-21-17 before he won twice. Preferred but not essential. 

Recent Form:  Only Emiliano Grillo had posted top 10 finishes in his previous 3 events before winning. Form not essential.

Favourites or Outsiders:  6 of the last 7 winners have started at 50/1 or above, including last year's winner Stewart Cink and 2019 champion Cameron Champ who started at 200/1 and 150/1. Outsiders should be chanced here, especially given the field strength. 

Stats Analysis

Driving Distance: Two of the last 7 winners were 1st for driving distance and Cink was 11th last year. Distance can be an advantage here. 

Driving Accuracy: Three of the last 7 winners were top 10 for driving accuracy. It is slightly preferred over distance.

Greens in Regulation:  All 7 winners were in the top 25 for GIR  and Cink was 1st last year. It's of strong importance to hit the greens here.

Scrambling:  The last 3 winners were 1st or 2nd for scrambling and all of the last 7 winners have been in the top 10. It seems to be a key stat.

Putting:  Only one of the last 7 winners has been in top 10 for putts per GIR. Place less emphasis on strong putters here.

In Play

Tough Holes:  13-15 play difficult. 2nd is a 240 yard par 3.

Birdie Holes:  16-18 is an easy stretch. 5th and 9th are reachable par 5's.
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Fast or Slow Start: It is possible to win from off the pace. Cink was two back heading into the final round last year. Cameron Champ led by three after round 3 in 2019 en route to victory, but the 5 previous winners all began round 3 at least 2 behind. Steele was 9 back after 36 holes in 2016 and Grillo was 6 back after 36 holes in 2015. Fast starts are not essential. 

In-play

Fortinet Championship In-Play Blog

19th September 2021, 10.30am (UK time)

Maverick McNealy birdied the last three holes of round three to retain a share of the lead going into the final round in California.  

It was a slow start for the former world amateur number 1 as he played his opening nine holes in +2.  However, his stellar back nine now sees him priced up at 5/2 to win his first PGA Tour event.

We advised McNealy at 28/1 after the first round (see Round 2 Bets below).  However, he'll need to overcome a poor record when in contention to do so.  He's been far more impressive when coming from off the pace to date and it'll be interesting to see how he copes with the pressure.  

We have McNealy as a 2⭐ rating in our Pressure Performance Ratings.  He's tended to take a step backwards on Sundays and whilst we obviously hope he'll win, there's a certain degree of trepidation.  We would have much preferred him to come from off the pace today.

The young American is tied with Jim Knous.  Knous is playing on a Major Medical Extension and must finish t3rd or better to retain his playing privileges (although he does have one further start after this event).  Ten missed cuts from 13 starts this year indicate it's not been the best of years for Jim and he'll surely be nervous as he tries to secure his card for next year.  We don't see him winning this.

Only one 3rd round leader has converted in the last six years.  In 2019, Cameron Champ converted when leading by three strokes through 54 holes but it's been a tournament to oppose the leaders going into the final round.  Given our concerns over the leaders we are looking to a couple of players who are capable of fast finishes from further down the leaderboard.

Conditions will be dry with a gentle breeze for the third round.  The wind is expected to peak around 9mph.

Round 4 Bets

• 0.5pts Each Way CT Pan 50/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-4)

CT did us a favour at the Olympics last month when he finished with a final round 63 to take the bronze medal.  Four shots back of the leaders, he'll need a similar effort today but there's a lot to like about him at 50/1.  Bogey free over his last 42 holes, he's striking his irons brilliantly (4th SG: Approach).  His putter is also working nicely (4th SG: Putting) and if he can somehow find a few more fairways he can post a low final round score.

•  0.5pts Each Way Patton Kizzire 50/1 @ Bet Victor (1/5 1-4)

If birdies are required from the chasers today, who better than the man who ranks 3rd best in the field for birdie average for the 2021 season.  Only Jon Rahm and Webb Simpson averaged more birdies than Patton in this field last season and we find ourselves drawn to him.  A two time winner on Tour, he has had a strong year with several top 3 finishes.  Patton led here through 54 holes in 2016 before being pipped by Brendan Steele shooting a 65.  It would certainly be fitting were Patton be the one to shoot a low final round and avenge that defeat.