Event Info
Starts: 26th January 2022
Course: Torrey Pines (South and North)
Par: Both 72
Length: 7,765 yards and 7,258 yards
2021 Champion: Patrick Reed
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -9pts
Pre-Event Bets: -7pts
0.75pts Each Way Max Homa 60/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
0.75pts Each Way Maverick McNealy 66/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-8)
0.75pts Each Way Ryan Palmer 66/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
0.75pts Each Way Keegan Bradley 70/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts Each Way Kyle Stanley 200/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
In-Play Bets: -2pts
29 January 2022(-2pts)
2pts Win Only Sungjae Im @ 12/1 @ General
Preview
Course Info
Course Designer: South - William P Bell 1957, Rees Jones re-design 2001 and 2019. North - Tom Weiskopf re-design 2016
Courses Used Since: 1952
Course Type: South - Coastal, Long, Demanding. North - Coastal, Short
Fairways: Narrow, Bermuda Grass
Rough: Kikuyugrass with Ryegrass, Thick.
Greens: South - Poa Annua 11.5 on stimpmeter North - Bentgrass 10.5 on stimpmeter
Water Hazards: 18th only
Par 5's: 6th, 9th, 13th, 18th (South Course)
Premium on: Tee to green and Poa Annua putting
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
The players each play the North and the South Course during the first two rounds. Please be aware, if betting in play, the South Course plays significantly tougher. The South Course is used for the final 36 holes.
The South Course was renovated in 2019 by Rees Jones prior to the US Open in June. It increased in length and was generally made tougher.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Trends
Winning Score
The winning score has ranged from -9 to -21 over the years, although it has to be said, Justin Rose's -21 in 2019 was exceptional golf. Winning score has been between -13 and -16 in seven of the last 12 years.
World Ranking
World rankings of the past six winners have been 11-28-1-12-137-24. It's worth noting Jon Rahm was the player ranked 137!
Correlating Courses
Pebble Beach, Glen Abbey, Riviera (All Poa Annua greens), Muirfield Village
Course Debutants
Jon Rahm is the only player to win in the last ten years when making his tournament debut.
Course Form
Eight of the last ten winners had recorded a top 10 finish prior to their win. Even more impressively, four of the last ten champions had recorded a top 10 finish the previous year.
Recent Form
You don't need to be in blistering form to win here. Four of the last five winners - Patrick Reed, Marc Leishman, Justin Rose and Jon Rahm - all arrived in mediocre form (albeit making cuts). Don't be too put off if your fancy isn't nailing top 10's already.
Nationality
Used to be heavily dominated by Americans, but only five Americans have won in the past ten years. Three of the last seven have been Australian.
Stats Analysis
Driving Distance
Rankings of the last six winners were 87-52-14-2-36-81. Distance isn't essential but definitely an advantage around the South Course.
Driving Accuracy
Rankings of the last six winners were 13-109-25-52-29-121.
SG: Off The Tee
Rankings of the last six winners were 31-82-26-15-9.
SG: Approach
Rankings of the last six winners were 39-9-11-85-10.
SG: Around The Green
Rankings of the last six winners were 1-96-28-42-66.
SG: Putting
Rankings of the last six winners were 10-3-39-54-58-8.
In Play
Tough Holes
On the South Course, 4th, 12th and 15th all play over 480 yards and will pose a challenge. Both par 3's on the back 9 - 11th and 16th - play 225+ yards.
Birdie Holes
The four par 5's (6th, 9th, 13th and 18th) are all very scoreable but do note the 9th and 13th are over 600 yards. The 2nd is a short par 4 which players will be expecting to birdie.
Fast or Slow Start
We have seen some massive comebacks in recent years here. Marc Leishman was 6 back after 36 holes and 4 back after 54 holes. Jason Day was 8 back after 18 holes, and 4 back after 36 holes. Jon Rahm was 7 back after 18 holes and 5 back after 36 holes. Although Justin Rose led from round 2 onwards in 2019, all in all this is catch up event.
Closing stretch
The 16th on the South is a long par 3, 17th is a scoreable par 4, and the par 5 18th to finish can provide drama with water short and left of the green.
2021 Course Notes
High Quality Leaderboard
Once again, leaderboard was packed with big names. Only one player (Henrik Norlander) in the top 9 was outside the top 60 in the world rankings. Only two of them (Norlander and Griffin), started at over 66/1 pre tournament.
Wind
In 2021, the only day with enough wind to affect scoring was 2nd round. Very still over the weekend.
Players Can Catch Up
The tough nature of the course will eventually lead to the top players catching up. Xander Schauffele and Tony Finau started round four outside the top 10 and finished joint 2nd.
2021 Player Notes 2021
RORY McIlROY:
As the poa gets soft here, obviously it gets a little bumpy and you start to just make some really tentative strokes and I sort of started to do that over the weekend here.
​RORY McILROY:
I think maybe I'm riding my luck a little bit at the minute, but the lies I've gotten in the rough haven't been too bad. There's been a couple that have been tough and you're having to just try to play to the front of the greens or whatever. (3rd Round).
Players We Almost Backed
Francesco Molinari 70/1
Francesco played really nicely last week at the American Express. He also has a good recent record at Torrey Pines. We wanted to see his price a little higher this week at the bookmakers but if you have Betfair Exchange access we wouldn't put you off backing him at odds of 150/1+.
Patrick Reed 50/1
Patrick is the defending champion this week and hasn't been outside of the top 25 in his last four starts in this event. He started slowly at the Sentry Tournament of Champions before improving over the next few rounds. We may look to see how he starts before backing him.
In-play
Farmers Insurance Open In-Play Blog
29 January 2022, 1:40pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Day | -14 |
| Zalatoris | -14 |
| Rahm | -13 |
| Rai | -13 |
| Three Players Tied | -12 |
A combined one over par from Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas has blown this event wide open and they now chase 2018 champion Jason Day and Will Zalatoris who both blitzed through the leaderboard yesterday.
Rahm has maintained his favouritism at a best price of 11/4. We mentioned yesterday that Rahm has disappointed in contention recently and our player profile shows he hasn't put in a strong Sunday showing since his win at Torrey Pines for the US Open last summer.
Rahm only missed four fairways and greens yesterday and commented after the round that "every part of the game feels good". He is a justified favourite while only one back but he is now surrounded by top talents on the leaderboard and we expected to see closer to 7/2 this morning to tempt us in.
Next in the betting is Will Zalatoris (4/1) who is seeking his maiden PGA Tour title. He has improved every day with rounds of 69-68-65, ranks 1st tee to green/approach and 2nd for off the tee. He missed plenty of putts yesterday including two from under 5ft and may need to improve in this area to win today.
Our player profile states that it is perhaps a concern that Will has only won once given the number of winning opportunities he has had in his short career. To his credit he hasn't shown a propensity to fall away on a Sunday but he hasn't demonstrated a killer instinct either and we're happy to pass up the 4/1 given his surrounding company.
Jason Day's struggles are well documented and he has barely contended in recent years. He had a chance of winning the Travelers Championship last June but finished 10th despite starting one off the lead. He had back troubles that week though and we shouldn't forget he has won twice here in the last 7 years.
He will have to draw on all these good memories today to overcome some contention rust and it may just be one Sunday too soon for Day, we're happy to pass him up at 5/1.
Since 2010, only three 54-hole leaders have gone on to win and two of them held three and four shot leads. Snedeker came from six and seven shots back for his wins but the majority came from 2-4 shots back.
This seems like a dangerous range for the leaders with players such as Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im and Cameron Tringale all two back and a whole host of potential danger three back. We're hopeful for two of those in that group - our 66/1 pre-event tips Ryan Palmer and Maverick McNealy.
Weather wise tomorrow, the forecast suggests light winds with a max of 8mph projected for when the leaders tee off.
Round 4 Bet
- 2pts Win ONLY Sungjae Im @ 12/1 @ General
Sungjae is two back of the leaders after playing his last two rounds at the South Course in 10 under par. We were extremely impressed by his final round 62 from three shots off the pace at Shriners to win by four in October and he also won from a few shots back in style at the Honda Classic in 2020. We have Im down as a really strong closer from this position so we're happy to take him at over four times the price of Rahm.
28 January 2022, 6:00pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Schenk | -13 |
| Thomas | -13 |
| Rahm | -13 |
| Tringale | -12 |
| Malnati | -11 |
We've got an exciting weekend ahead as Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas look set to battle it out for the Farmers Insurance Open.
JT shot a sparkling 63 on the North Course to share the lead and credited his driving as the basis for his score. He's 11/4 to win this weekend.
In contrast, Jon Rahm hit four fairways in round two but still managed a score of 65. He's the 11/8 favourite and given his record at Torrey Pines you'd be hard pushed to bet against him.
The players play in three balls today and the third man joining Rahm and Thomas is Adam Schenk. A best of the day 62, which included eight birdies in a row, was enough to catapult him into a share of the lead but it's difficult to see him keeping pace.
Schenk held a one stroke lead after 54 holes at the Shriners Childrens Open in October and slipped to 3rd. It was a similar story at the Barracuda Championship in August, where he let slip a four point lead (effectively two strokes).
It hasn't been necessary to be near the top of the leaderboard in recent times at this event. Jon Rahm won in 2017 when 21st after the opening 36 holes. Similarly, Marc Leishman won in 2020 when 17th at the halfway point. However, the leaders are in a strong position this time around and those chasing will need two very good rounds to challenge.
Weather for the 2nd round will be cloudy with sunny spells and a max wind of 7mph.
Round 3 Bet
- No bet
We're happy to leave this alone again and take a look at things on Saturday. Rahm would be our favoured selection but he's disappointed on several occasions recently when in contention. We'll pass up the 11/8 for now and hope he's a larger price tomorrow.
27 January 2022, 2:10am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Horschel (NC) | -9 |
| Thompson (NC) | -8 |
| Jaeger (NC) | -7 |
| Tway (NC) | -7 |
| Four players tied | -6 |
As expected, the round 1 leaderboard is dominated by players who played the North Course. However, a 66 from Jon Rahm on the South Course was the round of the day and he's now as short as 5/2 to win.
Rahm's post round statement that "everything was feeling good" is a huge worry for the rest of the field. He plays the easier North Course today and we fully expect him to be near the top of the leaderboard this time tomorrow.
Four of the top five in the betting played the South Course yesterday, Billy Horschel being the only player who played the North Course. Solid opening rounds from Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson mean that Rahm might not have things his own way.
Weather for the 2nd round will be sunny with wind peaking around 10mph.
Round 2 Bets
- No bet
We considered Wyndham Clark (200/1), Peter Malnati (125/1) and Mito Pereira (100/1) as potential each way value plays. However, we're content to sit on our hands and let the 2nd round play out and re-assess tomorrow.
