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2023 Corales Puntacana Championship Tips
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Event Info
Starts: 23rd March 2023
Course: Corales GC, Dominican Republic
Par: 72
Length: 7,670 yards
2021 Champion: Chad Ramey
Course Info
Designer: Fazio
Used Since: 2018
Fairways: Wide
Rough: Bermuda (2 inch)
Greens: Paspalum (11.5 stimp)
Water Hazards: On 6 holes
Par 5's: 4th, 7th, 12th and 14th
Premium on: Ability to deal with wind
Significant Info
This event was played on the Korn Ferry Tour for several years before becoming a PGA Tour event in 2018.
It is now played alongside the WGC Matchplay, so it is a weak field.
Corales Puntacana Championship Weather
Thursday
Light Rain showers in the morning and wind reaching 16mph.
Friday
Light Rain showers in the morning and wind reaching 16mph.
Saturday
Mostly sunny with wind reaching 14mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny with wind reaching 15mph.
Corales Puntacana Championship Trends
Winning Score
Joel Dahmen won in 2021 with a score of 12 under par but the three previous PGA Tour tournaments had been won with 18 under par and Ramey won with 17 under par last year. The two Korn Ferry Tour events were won with scores of -20 and -24.
Course Form
Chad Ramey won on his debut last year. Joel Dahmen had posted top 20 finishes in 2019 and 2018. However, the three champions before him had played at Puntacana prior to their win but all three missed the cut the year immediately before their win. Course form preferred but definitely not essential.
Recent Form
None of the last five champions had recorded a top 30 finish in the last three starts prior to their win. Joel Dahmen, Graeme McDowell and Brice Garnett had all failed to record a top 10 that year prior to winning. Chad Ramey was 5th at Puerto Rico in his 2nd last start prior to winning.
World Ranking
The world ranking of the past five champions has been 203-79-341-257-211. Bare in mind the top 64 are playing the WGC Matchplay this week but in general there's every chance we get a high priced winner.
Nationality
In the five years this event has been played on the PGA Tour, four of the winners have been American.
Corales Puntacana Championship Stats Analysis
Driving Distance
The last five winners have ranked 80-25-20-78-76. Distance off the tee isn't essential.
Driving Accuracy
The last five winners have ranked 19-67-21-51-28. Accuracy slightly preferred over distance.
Greens In Regulation
The last five winners have ranked 27-14-40-16-30.
Scrambling
The last four winners have ranked 4-29-65-16.
Putts Per GIR
The last four winners have ranked 4-8-1-2. A hot putter is essential.
Corales Puntacana Championship In Play Tips
Tough Holes
The 11th, 5th and 2nd played hardest but the wind direction and strength will often determine which holes are hardest.
Birdie Holes
The four par 5s rank as four of the five easiest holes. The par 4 3rd hole ranks as amongst the easiest also.
Closing Stretch
16-18 are known as The Devil's Elbow and play slightly over par.
Fast or Slow Start
2020 and 2018 champions, Hudson Swafford and Brice Garnett, both led after the opening round. Last year's champion Chad Ramey was four behind whilst 2021 champion, Joel Dahmen, was 2nd after round one.
Leaders after round three have a strong record here. Both McDowell and Garnett converted from in front and Dominic Bozzelli won when joint leader in 2016 on the web.com Tour (now Korn Ferry Tour). Chad Ramey won from two behind last year.
Each of the last six course winners have been inside the top 10 at halfway.
2023 Corales Puntacana Championship Tips
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In-play
Corales Puntacana Championship In-Play Blog
25th March 2023, 10:25pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Hojgaard |
-14 |
| Stevens |
-14 |
| Clark |
-13 |
| Detry |
-13 |
| Duncan |
-13 |
| Wallace |
-13 |
| Three players tied |
-12 |
2023 Corales Puntacana Championship Round 3 Summary
Sam Stevens bogeyed his last hole to drop back into a share of the lead with Nicolai Hojgaard and the two players will share the lead going into the final round.
Notable Round 1 Corales Puntacana Championship Round 3 Quotes
"After the first round we did some work on irons. It's about discipline when you play a course like this, and patience. There's a lot of birdies out there, but with this wind you can make some mistakes. It was all about the discipline mindset, hitting more greens and you can score out here. And I've been driving the ball quite solid and approach game is starting to show up. I guess that's presently the difference compared to the first round." Nicolai Hojgaard
"Yeah, it was pretty steady all day. I made some putts on the front nine and then yeah, gave myself a couple opportunities that I took advantage of. And I played pretty good on the back, 16 I kind of misjudged the wind and sliced it and made a bogey there. Then 18 I just hit a bad iron shot, but that was really my -- that was my worst swing of the day. I felt pretty good about everything else." Sam Stevens
2023 Corales Puntacana Championship Round 4 Weather
Sunny intervals. The wind is expected to peak at 14mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Nicolai Hojgaard edges favouritism at 16/5. The Dane got off to a slow start this week but rounds of 65 and 66 have been impressive and he's the deserved favourite. Both of his DP World Tour wins have come when leading after the third round so he's a proven front runner. Hojgaard leads the Greens in Regulation and Driving Distance stats this week and he's got a great chance of winning his first PGA Tour title.
Sam Stevens is available to back at 4/1. The American converted a third round lead to win the Colombia Classic on the PGA Tour Latinoamerica in January 2021 but has been poor in contention ever since (his position having worsened the last five times in contention) and Hojgaard would be preferred in our eyes.
Where is the value?
History would suggest the winner comes from the final group, with each of the last five winners being in first or second position gong into the final round. However, with nine players within two shots of the lead and both leaders looking for their first PGA Tour win, we wouldn't be surprised if that trend is broken.
Round 4 Bets
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24th March 2023, 10:25pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Wallace |
-11 |
| Stevens |
-10 |
| Clark |
-10 |
| Four players tied |
-8 |
2023 Corales Puntacana Championship Round 2 Summary
Matt Wallace birdied two of his first three holes and never relinquished the lead thereafter. The Englishman leads by a stroke over Sam Stevens and Wyndham Clark.
Notable Round 1 Corales Puntacana Championship Round 2 Quotes
"I hit it probably a little bit better than yesterday, so didn't think that was possible but it's nice to have that in the bank now and confidence has grown." Matt Wallace
" I missed the cut last week in Tampa. I played pretty well the whole year, kind of just haven't had those little hot runs that you need. So I kind of just put myself right on the cut line every week. Played well in Puerto Rico, played well at Farmers. Honestly, the difference in those weeks is just getting off to a little bit better start and kind of playing a little freer second round and kind of just opening it up a little bit, which is nice. I feel like I've played fine. It's hard to get your feet under you out here and I'm definitely feeling more and more comfortable every week." Sam Stevens
2023 Corales Puntacana Championship Round 3 Weather
Sunny intervals. The wind is expected to peak at 15mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Wyndham Clark is 2/1 favourite but it's a price that is too short for us to entertain. He was 7th at the halfway stage in this event last year and would go on to finish 22nd. He's playing well at the moment but his record when inside the top 10 at halfway is weak (only improved his position once from last five instances of being inside the top 10 at halfway) and we're happy to look past him for the time being.
Matt Wallace can be backed at 3/1. He ranks 2nd for Greens in Regulation so far this week and there's no doubt he's full of confidence. His record when leading at halfway isn't ideal though. He converted a halfway lead to win the Open de Portugal in 2017 but hasn't been able to convert any of his six subsequent 36 hole leads. That said, we would prefer Wallace to Clark if forced to choose between the two.
Sam Stevens is priced up at 5/1. He ranks one worse than Wallace for Greens in Regulation through the opening two rounds and was positive in his post round interview. Stevens struggled when in contention at Puerto Rico a few weeks ago though and also passed up a several winning opportunities on the Korn Ferry Tour last year. Others would be preferred at the odds available.
Where is the value?
Four of the last five winners of this event have been inside the top five at this stage of proceedings so we're focusing on the players at seven under par or better.
Round 3 Bets
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24th March 2023, 00:25am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Garnett |
-6 |
| Martin |
-6 |
| Wallace |
-5 |
| Six players tied |
-4 |
2023 Corales Puntacana Championship Round 1 Summary
Brice Garnett and Ben Martin lead the way after the opening round. Interestingly, six of the top nine played in the afternoon and conditions were breezy for both morning and afternoon starters.
Notable Round 1 Corales Puntacana Championship Round 1 Quotes
"We were pretty excited when we saw the wind forecast for the week where it's going to be windy morning and afternoon. We just have a lot of good vibes around here. We do a pretty good job guessing the winds, always putt pretty good on this grass, so it was a great day to start off a fun week." Brice Garnett
" I just really like the things I've been working on, keeping it simple. I think I gain confidence if I do those like little simple things. Like I was working with Justin Parsons at The PLAYERS and we just kind of worked on simple setup stuff. So little things to check off the list and then just freed me up to swing the golf club. I just like the way my game's been progressing." Ben Martin
2023 Corales Puntacana Championship Round 2 Weather
Sunny intervals. The wind is expected to peak at 14mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Ben Martin is the unsurprising 5/1 favourite given he is joint leader and somewhat of a course specialist, having finished 9th and 2nd the past two years. A morning tee time tomorrow further enhances his credentials and although we aren't in the habit of backing favourites after the opening round, he was certainly strongly considered.
Wyndham Clark is the 7/1 second favourite after an opening round of 69. Clark went off as favourite pre-event but the price is no more than fair in our opinion and others are preferred.
Matt Wallace also continued his fine play from last week's Valspar Championship and is priced up at 17/2 after an opening 67. The Englishman ranked 3rd for Greens In Regulation in round one and appears to be striking the ball well at the moment.
Where is the value?
Four of the last five winners of this event have been inside the top 15 after the opening round so we are focusing our attention on those players at two under par or better.
Round 2 Bets
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