Event Info
Starts: 28th October 2021
Course: Port Royal Golf Course,Bermuda
Par: 71
Length: 6,828 yards
2020 Champion: Brian Gay
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: +51.95pts
Pre-Event Bets: -0.8pts
1pt EW Danny Willett 40/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Beau Hossler 80/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-7)
0.5pts EW Graeme McDowell 80/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-7)
0.5pts EW JJ Spaun 200/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Russell Knox FRL 60/1 @ 10bet (1/4 1-5)
0.5pts EW Mark Hubbard FRL 66/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-6)
0.5pts EW Anirban Lahiri FRL 80/1 @ Unibet (1/5 1-6)
0.5pts EW Vaughn Taylor FRL 100/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-6)
In-Play Bets: +52.75pts
29 October 2021(+53.75pts)
0.75pts Each Way Lucas Herbert 60/1@ William Hill (1/4 1-5)
0.75pts Each Way Nick Watney 90/1@ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
0.5pts Each Way Peter Malnati 150/1 @ Bet Victor (1/5 1-5)
30 October 2021(-1pt)
0.5pts Each Way Chase Seiffert 80/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-5)
Preview
Course Info
Course Designer: Robert Trent Jones
Tournament played here since: 2019
Type of Course: Short, coastal track exposed to the wind. Very hilly.
Fairways: Very tight off the tee, the field average for fairways hit was only 54% in 2019.
Rough: Bermuda rough only two inches long, but enough to make approach shots difficult.
Greens: Smaller than average TifEagle Bermuda greens running 10.5 on Stimpmeter on account of the wind.
Par 5's: 2nd, 7th and 17th
Water Hazards: In play on five of the holes.
Premium on: Approach play
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
The weather! Caution is advised this week due to the weather forecast below. There will be some good in-play opportunities as a result.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather
Temperatures should be in the mid 70's with thunderstorms expected over the weekend. Thursday looks set to be the windiest day with winds of up to 26mph in the afternoon.
Thursday
Showers, max winds approx 26mph.
Friday
Mostly Cloudy, max winds approx 14mph.
Saturday
Scattered Thunderstorms, max winds approx 16mph.
Sunday
Thunderstorms, max winds approx 19mph.
Trends
Winning Score
Todd won in 2019 with -24 but that was in much calmer conditions. Brian Gay won with -15 last year in heavy winds so we should expect a winning score close to -20.
Course Form
Gay was 3rd here in 2019 before his win but runner up Clark was a debutant. It's preferred over recent form at this unique track.
Recent Form
Todd won in 2019 on the back of a 28th place finish at the Houston Open but had missed several cuts before that. Last year, Gay arrived following four missed cuts. Form is not essential here.
Winning Profile
Gay was ranked 318th before his win but it was his 5th PGA Tour title. Todd was ranked 522nd and was his second PGA Tour title. Neither player had won in over 5 years.
Stats Analysis
Driving Accuracy
Rankings for both course winners were 4-4. Hitting the small fairways is key.
Driving Distance
Rankings for both course winners were 38-51. No major advantage with length.
Greens In Regulation
Rankings for both course winners were 15-10. An important stat to win.
Scrambling
Rankings for both course winners were 16-4. An important stat to win.
Putts Per GIR
Rankings for both course winners were 6-3. With low scoring a hot putter is required.
In Play
Tough Holes: The par 3s will go a long way to determining the winner. Holes 13 and 16 can play in excess of 230 yards and the eighth is 210 yards.
Birdie Holes: The 7th hole (par 5) is a must-birdie hole.
Fast or Slow Start: Gay was 6 shots back after round one last year, and four back at halfway. Todd shot an opening 68 and trailed first round leader, Scottie Scheffler, by 6. He was still behind with 18 holes to go, before overcoming a two shot deficit. It is possible to play catch up here.
In-play
Butterfield Bermuda Championship In-Play Blog
31st October 2021, 10.10am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Pendrith | -17 |
| Lee | -14 |
| Herbert | -13 |
| Rodgers | -12 |
| Whaley | -12 |
Taylor Pendrith has stretched his lead to three and is now best price 5/6 to convert. Danny Lee is closest to the lead and is a 5/1 shot, whilst our 66/1 in-play tip Lucas Herbert is one behind Lee and available at 13/2.
Pendrith got off to a slow start playing his first six holes in +1 but a birdie on the 7th was the first of seven birdies and it was a flawless back nine.
We spoke yesterday about his recent marriage and he is looking relaxed out there considering he is a rookie trying to win for the first time. With that said, he missed a short birdie putt on the last and it looked like a nervous stroke.
The weather is set to take a turn for the worse today and as a result the leaders will go out at 12:57pm. This is usually bad news for the leader, however Pendrith stated post round that he loves playing in tough conditions and his 70 in the worst of the weather in round one is evidence of that.
Danny Lee has already won on tour at the 2015 Greenbrier classic but has not been in contention for some time. He is also playing on a medical exemption and this is the first of three tournaments he has left to keep his PGA Tour card - 2nd place will regain his full status. It's a lot of pressure and not ideal for the testing conditions.
Herbert is in prime position to capitalise if Pendrith wobbles. He was in a similar position for his final round charge to win a windy Dubai desert classic and that should give him positive memories today. A win in Ireland this year when front running is more strong memories and we will cheer him on with optimism today.
Round 4 Bet
- No bet
Pendrith is more than fair at 5/6 given his performance yesterday but the weather is putting us off backing him at odds on. For those keen to have a 3 ball play, Peter Malnati looks generous at 17/10 to beat Curtis Thompson and Patrick Flavin but we will keep our interest to our in-play 66/1 tip on Lucas Herbert after round one.
30th October 2021, 1.10pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Pendrith | -11 |
| Rodgers | -10 |
| Whaley | -9 |
| Lee | -8 |
| Skinns | -8 |
Taylor Pendrith shot a course record 61 to take a one shot lead into the weekend at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
Even more impressive was the fact Pendrith was one of only two players in the top 16 to play AM-PM in rounds one and two. The Canadian acknowledged in his post round interview that the score was somewhat unexpected given he hadn't played much golf since getting married two weeks ago.
A rookie on the PGA Tour at the age of 30, Pendrith is now 7/2 favourite to win. His only career victories have come on the Canadian Tour (2019) and it will be a big ask for him to see this through. That said, he's clearly in a happy spot with his personal life and treating this event like a honeymoon well certainly help take the pressure off.
The leaderboard is stacked with players who are yet to win on the PGA Tour and this event is still very much all to play for. Yesterday's in-play blog tips, Lucas Herbert and Peter Malnati, made good moves up the leaderboard and we're hoping they can continue their progress. We were close to tipping them up again today.
Brendon Todd won in 2019 when leading at halfway and Pendrith will hope to emulate him. However, it should be noted that Todd slipped to 2nd place through 54 holes before closing with a 62 for a four shot victory. Those chasing Pendrith will be encouraged by the fact Brian Gay was 12th last year at the halfway point.
The wind is forecast to pick up as the day goes on, and peak around 14mph from 2pm onwards. No rain is expected.
Round 3 Bet
- 0.5pts Each Way Chase Seiffert 80/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-5)
Like Taylor Pendrith, Chase is the other player in the top 16 who played in the harder AM-PM draw for rounds one and two. He is currently five shots behind the leader but we've got some interesting weather the next few days and a fve shot deficit can easily be overcome. Yet to win as a professional, he's recorded several top 5 finishes on the PGA Tour in recent years that have stood out. A final round 64 at the Honda Classic earlier this year was particularly eye catching as it propelled him to a 3rd place finish. Coming from off the pace may well suit Chase this weekend and he's an enticing price. Take the 66/1 available generally if you can't get the 80/1 at Hills.
29th October 2021, 8.10am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Hagy | -6 |
| Ramey | -6 |
| Whaley | -5 |
| Six players tied | -4 |
"The hardest wind I've ever played in." That was the assessment of Matt Fitzpatrick regarding the conditions the morning starters faced at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
Fortunately for the players out in the afternoon, the wind subsided quite significantly as the day wore on. As a result, we have a leaderboard dominated by those who teed off after lunch. None of the top 9 (four under or better) played in the morning and only three of the top 24 were early starters.
Chad Ramey is the general 5/1 favourite (although he is 13/2 with BetVictor as this article is being written). The rookie finished 4th on last year's Korn Ferry Tour money list, winning once. He led through 36 holes at the Shriners Children's Open a couple of weeks ago before falling back to finish 14th.
Having turned pro in 2014 and initially playing mini tours before graduating to the Korn Ferry in 2018, Ramey's career to date has been one of steady progression and finding his feet at each new level. It would be a shock to see him win from here and 5/1 isn't for us.
Patrick Reed (9/1) is next in the betting and he will have been disappointed to close with a bogey on 18. The American had just made a miraculous eagle on 17, holing out with a six iron after putting his drive in the bushes. Despite that error on the last, we'd much rather him at almost double Ramey's price.
The wind is forecast to be fairly consistent throughout (around 11mph) but towards the end of the day the wind is set to drop a couple of miles per hour. No rain is expected.
Round 2 Bets
- 0.75pts Each Way Lucas Herbert 60/1@ William Hill (1/4 1-5)
Lucas was on our shortlist pre-event but poor recent form was enough to put us off. That decision appeared to be vindicated when he went +2 for his opening three holes. However, he fought back well to post a one under par round. He was inside the top 20 for both driving accuracy and greens in regulation yesterday. A two time winner on the European Tour, including this year, he's one of the highest ranked players in this field. Note - 66/1 is available at Unibet but we like the better each way terms at William Hill.
- 0.75pts Each Way Nick Watney 90/1@ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Nick battled to a one under par round yesterday in the worst of conditions. He's turned his game around in recent weeks, posting a runner up finish at the Sanderson Farms Championship. A six time winner on the PGA Tour, he could well win again this week.
- 0.5pts Each Way Peter Malnati 150/1 @ Bet Victor (1/5 1-5)
Peter opened up with a one under par round and sits five shots off the pace. Inside the top 20 for driving accuracy and greens in regulation, it was a solid opening round. He was 21st here last year, hampered by a poor 2nd round. He did shoot a 63 though (joint best of the week) so he's shown he can go low here. A streaky player very much in the mould of past winners, Brendon Todd and Brian Gay, he can get hot with the putter and post a big finish.
