Event Info
Starts: 26th August 2021
Course: Caves Valley Golf Club, MD
Par: 72
Length: 7,542 yards
2020 Champion: Jon Rahm
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: +6.03pts
Pre-Event Bets: +9.03pts
1.5pts Each Way Rory McIlroy 28/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-7)
0.75pts Each Way Sergio Garcia 90/1 @ BetVictor (1/5 1-6)
0.75pts Each Way Cameron Champ 100/1 @ BetVictor (1/5 1-6)
0.5pts Each Way Talor Gooch 150/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-7)
0.5pts Each Way Hudson Swafford 250/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-7)
In-Play Bets: -3pts
28 August 2021(-1pt)
0.5pts Each Way Hudson Swafford 100/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-3)
29 August 2021(-2pts)
1pt WIN ONLY Abraham Ancer 25/1 @ Betfair
1pt WIN ONLY Sam Burns 28/1 @ Betfair
Preview
Course Info
Designer:Tom Fazio
Used Since: First time hosting
Fairways: Average
Greens: Bentgrass
Water Hazards: On 6 holes
Premium on: Putting
Significant Info
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
This is the first time this course has been used for a PGA Tour event. It has hosted events on the Champions Tour and amateur events.
Only 69 players tee it up this week and only the top 30 in the FedEx rankings will progress to next week's Tour Championship.
There is no cut this week.
Weather
Thursday
Possible thunderstorms in the afternoon with a max wind speed of 4mph.
Friday
Possible thunderstorms in the afternoon with a max wind speed of 7mph.
Saturday
Sunny intervals with a max wind speed of 7mph.
Sunday
Possible thunderstorms in the afternoon with a max wind speed of 9mph.
Trends
With this course yet to host a PGA Tour event, we do not have any trends to draw upon.
Quotes
“It’s similar (to Quail Hollow), it’s just really, really big. This is significantly harder to walk, but it’s big and it’s going to be a lot of mid to long irons which is pretty similar to Quail.”
Max Homa
"I think it's unique. First off, starting out, you're going to have an opportunity to get off to a really hot start on the first few holes, and then it's going to kind of -- it's going to take some -- it's a significant test after that, especially as you finish on each nine.
I've played a lot of fun rounds there and not played any real competitive rounds there, just when I've come up to visit Under Armour, we typically try and make at least a trip to play one or two rounds out of Caves, so I'd say I played it close to ten times now, but I just love going out there for the entire experience, but as far as the test for guys in the BMW, it looks like it's going to be just a really fun challenge, where you get some shots, some opportunities that you don't get on kind of traditional golf courses.
You've got really short par-4s mixed with some beasts, and then you've got that stretch of 8, 9 is just a really cool stretch on the end of the front nine, where you just kind of try to hold, par is a good score. I expect scoring to be pretty average, relatively good, but in a really exciting way where you have to pull off a lot of good shots. You've got to take risks. When you take risks, you're rewarded when you pull it off, and when you're not, there could be a separation and scoring gap."
Jordan Spieth
In-play
BMW Championship In-Play Blog
29th August 2021, 09:30am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| DeChambeau | -21 |
| Cantlay | -21 |
| Im | -18 |
| Ancer | -17 |
| Garcia | -17 |
| McIlroy | -17 |
| Burns | -17 |
| Rahm | -16 |
Bryson DeChambeau and Patrick Cantlay continue to set the pace at the BMW Championship and enjoy a three shot lead over their nearest challenger.
DeChambeau will be kicking himself after a poor back nine cost him the chance to lead on his own. Six under par for the round through eight holes, it looked as if a repeat of yesterday's 60 was on the cards. However, balls in the water on 12 and 13 cost him 3 shots and there were some wayward tee shots coming home.
Bryson has been boycotting the print media this week and it seems that all is not well. Shouts of "Brooksy" could still be heard from the crowd and that remains an issue for him. Ordinarily we'd favour DeChambeau over Cantlay but off course issues continue to be a negative and given his recent failings in contention (see his Player Profile HERE), it's hard to back him at 5/4.
Patrick Cantlay's performance over the first two days had been fuelled by some unbelievable putting. However, yesterday saw his SG: Tee To Green stats improve significantly and he'll be tough to beat if he can marry the two together. General odds of 7/4 are fair for a man who won The Memorial earlier in the year from a similar position after three rounds.
Chasing the top two are a group of players who are more than capable of fast finishes. Abraham Ancer has a history of low final rounds and recently won for the first time at the WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational. One of the men Ancer beat in that playoff, Sam Burns, also has a history of fast finishes. A final round 64 at the WGC almost saw him pip Ancer.
Sungjae Im has putted well so far this week but there remains a nagging doubt as to whether he can keep up the level of putting required to challenge the leaders.
The Spaniards, Sergio Garcia and Jon Rahm, are paired together today and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them feed off each other. We backed Garcia pre-event at 90/1 and we're hoping he can at least land an each way payout. Rahm will need something special in the final round after playing his last six holes of round three in three over par. However, if anyone can do it, it's the World Number 1. We only need to recall his final round 64 at last year's BMW Championship.
Another of our pre-event bets, Rory McIlroy, is also in contention. A disappointing 2nd round has put Rory behind the curve but like Rahm, he's also capable of fireworks on his day.
The weather is likely to worsen as the day progresses and there is a possibility a thunderstorm could disrupt the final round. The wind is not expected to exceed 10mph but if the storm moves in it may blow harder.
Round 4 Bets
- 1pt WIN ONLY Abraham Ancer 25/1 @ Betfair
We're taking on the leaders with two players who have had outstanding years so far and are capable of strong final rounds. You only need to look at Ancer's best finishes this year to note how much he enjoys coming from off the pace. A final round 65 at The Traveler's Championship to take 4th place, a best of the day 66 at the Wells Fargo to challenge Rory McIlroy and a best of the day 65 to take 8th at the PGA Championship. He never gives up and if the leaders give him any sort of encouragement he could well get into the mix.
- 1pt WIN ONLY Sam Burns 28/1 @ Bet365
Sam is another player capable of going low. He's shot 65 or better in six of his last eleven rounds and is a player who enjoys low scoring events. He posted a round of 63 on his way to winning the Valspar earlier in the year and followed that up with a round of 62 at the AT&T Byron Nelson. In short, he has the ability to shoot the low score that's needed to catch the leaders.
28th August 2021, 08:30am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| DeChambeau | -16 |
| Cantlay | -15 |
| Rahm (thru 15) | -15 |
| Im | -12 |
| Garcia | -12 |
The weather prevented the 2nd round from being completed but that didn't stop Bryson DeChambeau posting a sizzling round of 60 to take a one shot lead.
Just as Cameron Smith did last week, DeChambeau could well have recorded a 59 had he holed a makeable birdie putt at the last hole. The long hitting American had just 6ft left for birdie but unfortunately misread the putt.
The disappointment of missing out on a 59 surely won't last long though and he will now turn his attention to winning this week's event. It's been a disappointing year for DeChambeau since his win at the Arnold Palmer in March and he'll certainly want to end the year with at least one more win.
He disappointed when in contention at the WGC FedEx a few weeks ago and that's been the theme for much of the summer. His feud with Brooks Koepka has been a significant distraction and he's not been as clinical as he has been. Odds of 5/2 are not unfair given how he's playing and how much the course suits his game but we're reluctant to take odds that short with 36 holes to go and a plethora of top players chasing him.
Breathing down his neck are Patrick Cantlay and Jon Rahm. Rahm has three holes remaining of his 2nd round and could well catch DeChambeau. He retains favouritism with the bookmakers and it's hard to think he won't be in the mix again come Sunday. However, odds of 13/8 don't sufficiently interest us at this stage of proceedings.
Cantlay has gained in excess of 5 shots per round with the putter and will do well to keep up that level of performance over the weekend. Odds of 4/1 don't overly interest us.
Expect more low scores today as the forecast for the third round is favourable. No rain is forecast and the wind is not expected to blow harder than 8mph.
Round 3 Bet
- 0.5pts Each Way Hudson Swafford 100/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-3)
Hudson was one of our pre-event bets and we're happy to go back in for small stakes at three figure odds. He is currently five shots off the lead but stated in his post round interview that he is focusing on the win this week in an effort to secure a place in next week's Tour Championship. He's a proven performer on Fazio courses and he appears to be comfortable on the undulating greens here at Caves Valley. All three of his career wins have come when trailing after three rounds so if he can get with a few shots of the leaders come Sunday he'll fancy his chances.
27th August 2021, 10:40am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Burns | -8 |
| Rahm | -8 |
| McIlroy | -8 |
| Garcia | -7 |
| Two players tied | -6 |
Our pre-event plays are off to a strong start as 28/1 Rory McIlroy shares the lead and 90/1 Sergio Garcia sits one back. Rory has strong company at the top with Jon Rahm and 2021 revelation Sam Burns.
The course didn't have much defence yesterday and as a result, 42 players broke 70 and 18 are within three shots of the lead. We're likely to see lots jostling for position now, but it is hard to argue against the credentials of the three leaders.
Rahm justifies favouritism at 11/4 but the chasers will take heart from his quick start last week. only being able to finish 3rd in the end. He had a hot day on the greens ranking 2nd for putting so it's possible he slows up today.
Rory is bidding to win his 2nd event of the year and, like Rahm, putted strongly ranking 3rd. Worryingly for the field though, he hit 13/14 fairways and ranked 2nd off the tee. If his iron play improves a touch, he could well be the value at 13/2.
Burns appears to be over his playoff defeat at St Jude and won't back off. Among the leaders he had the best tee to green stats, ranking 2nd, and putted beautifully too. He's becoming a frequent top performer in the money events and we wouldn't put anyone off getting involved at 12/1.
Ultimately though, this is still wide open and the picture should be a lot clearer tomorrow. We're off to a strong start so we will hold tight for any further bets.
Round 2 Bets
- No Bets
