Barracuda Championship 2022

Event Info

Starts: 14th July 2022
Course: Tahoe Mountain Club, California
Par: 71
Length: 7,480 yards
2021 Champion: Erik Van Rooyen

Preview
In-play

Preview

Course Info

Designer: Jack Nicklaus
Used Since: 2020
Fairways: Average (plenty of trees though)
Greens: Bent-Poa blend (average width)
Rough: Only 2 inches this year.
Water Hazards: On 5 holes
Par 5's: 2nd, 6th & 12th
Premium on: Approach play and Putting.

Significant Info

The field is much weaker than regular PGA Tour events as this event is played opposite the British Open. Last year, it was played opposite the WGC FedEx. DP World Tour players have been invited back for a second week running in the States.

This event uses a modified stableford format rather than traditional strokeplay. The format rewards aggressive play with five points awarded for an eagle, two for a birdie and zero for a par. Negative points are awarded for bogey or worse.

Weather

Thursday
Sunny with wind speed around 17mph.

Friday
Sunny with wind speed of around 16mph.

Saturday
Sunny with wind speed around 17mph.

Saturday
Sunny with wind speed around 18mph.

Trends

Winning Score
Werenski won with a winning score of 39 points in 2021 but Erik Van Rooyen scored the tournament record with 50 points last year. Winners have previously needed 40+ points on a different course.

Course Form
Van Rooyen had no course form but there had only been one edition at the course before he won.

Recent Form
Van Rooyen arrived out of form (58-MC-MC) and runner up Putnam had also missed three cuts in a row. In the previous three years, every winner of the Barracuda has finished in the top 8 in their last start prior to their victory. However, the three champions prior to that had a terrible recent record, none of them bettering 63rd in their last start.

World Ranking
Van Rooyen was ranked 110th in the world whereas runner up Putnam was 175th.

In 2020, Werenski was world number 210. The 2019 champion, Collin Morikawa, was 172nd. In the five years prior to that we've seen rankings of 138rd, 413th, 490th and 416th. Due to the unique nature of the event, surprises can and do happen.

Nationality
Americans have won five of the last eight events. The other three winners were Australian (2) and South African.

Correlating Courses
None of note.

Stats Analysis

We look at the stats of the top two in 2021 and 2020.

Driving Accuracy
EVR ranked 35th and Runner Up Putnam ranked 57th. In 2020, Werenski ranked 52nd. Troy Merritt (who was runner up) was 34th.

Driving Distance
EVR ranked 42nd and Putnam ranked 81st. We have no driving distance stats from the 2020 event.

Greens In Regulation
EVR ranked 3rd and Putnam ranked 1st. In 2020, Werenski was 8th and Merritt was 11th. GIR looks the key stat this week.

Scrambling
EVR ranked 41st and Putnam ranked 8th. In 2020, Werenski was 61st and Merritt was 52nd.

Putts per GIR
EVR ranked 4th and Putnam ranked 29th. In 2020, Werenski was 11th and Merritt was 27th. Putting well is required in a low scoring format.

In Play

Tough Holes
The 10th, 15th and 17th have played as the three hardest holes.

Birdie Holes
The three par 5's are all birdie opportunities, along with the short par 4 8th hole.

Closing Stretch
It's a tough finish as the 17th played 3rd hardest and 18th played 7th hardest.

Fast or Slow Start
It is possible to recover from a slow start at this course. Van Rooyen was 9pts behind after round one but the eventual top 4 were all in the top 10 after 36 holes.

In 2020, none of the top four scored more than nine points after round one (round one leader scored 14 points). Werenski was five points behind at halfway and he was seven points behind through 54 holes.

In-play

Barracuda Championship In-Play Blog

17 July 2022, 11:30am (UK time)

Player	Total
Reavie	+37
Laird	+31
Noren	+28
Davis	+28
Garnett	+27
Norlander	+27

Round 3 Summary

Our 40/1 in-play selection Chez Reavie doubled his lead to 6pts despite playing his last five holes in one over par. Martin Laird finished with three birdies in a row to cut the gap at the top.

Notable Round 3 Quotes

"I hit the ball really well today for most of the day, didn’t really make many putts, had a lot of good looks and fortunately made a few in the middle. Hit some bad shots coming in and was able to save some pars. Wasn’t quite all together today, but did everything well at different times" Chez Reavie

"Love this tournament,” Laird said. “Always like playing at altitude, love being in the mountains. I live in Denver, so it’s not strange for me with how far the ball goes. I kind of know my numbers at this altitude, which is nice." Martin Laird

Round 4 Weather

The morning starters will enjoy benign conditions, whilst it picks up to 18mph late afternoon.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Reavie is now 8/13 to convert and if he can keep hitting fairways and greens (ranks 5th and 8th), he should set up enough chances to post a difficult target for the chasers. For his last win, he led the Travellers by six shots and posted one under to win by four, but he has barely been in contention since then so he may suffer from some rust.

He now has a bigger danger on his tail though, in Martin Laird, a four time PGA Tour winner who loves this event. Odds of 9/2 look tempting but the same contention rust applies to Laird who has not had a chance to win since he won the 2020 Shriners. This is likely to turn into a shoot out and if Reavie has a quiet day, a whole host of players in the mid-late 20pt range can contend.

Where is the value?

No noticeable value today, let's cheer on Reavie to close this out!

Round 4 Bet

No Bets

+ - Round 3 Bets Click to collapse

16 July 2022, 10:30am (UK time)

Player	Total
Reavie	+28
Hubbard	+25
Norlander	+25
Tway	+21
McNealy	+19
Trainer	+19

Round 2 Summary

Our 40/1 in-play selection Chez Reavie made a big move yesterday and now leads by 3pts over Mark Hubbard and Henrik Norlander.

Notable Round 2 Quotes

"You’ve got to be in the fairway. Once you get in the rough, with the greens being firm, you can’t really be aggressive with your irons, so you have to drive the ball in the fairway.." Chez Reavie

"There's a lot of bad voices in there, I’m not going to lie. But I think the key for me is to like accept that and then move from there. When I get bad, I try to avoid those voices, but they’re there." Henrik Norlander

Round 3 Weather

The morning starters will enjoy benign conditions, whilst it picks up to 15mph late afternoon.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

As mentioned in our tip, Reavie is a class act and has winning experience compared to Hubbard and Norlander. That should put him in good shape for tomorrow if he can hang in there today, the danger is he struggles to back up that low round. Certainly, the value at 5/2 has now passed and he may be bigger tomorrow morning.

Mark Hubbard is still 2nd in the betting at 3/1. He commented after the round that he enjoyed the conditions once it heated up so that will suit him today. A big danger to Reavie. Norlander's price of 9/1 was very tempting but comments about trying to keep bad thoughts out if his head is off putting.

Where is the value?

With this scoring system, things can change very fast and we're best looking for more each way value down the leaderboard.

Round 3 Bets

1.5pts Each Way Kevin Tway 25/1 @ Boylesports (1/5 1-5)

Kevin is currently in sole possession of 4th place, 7pts back from Reavie. He is being disrespected in the market, a PGA Tour winner in 2018 and runner up at Houston last November where he didn't shy away in contention. Tway's long and straight driving will set up plenty of chances on this course and he is well capable of winning this week.

0.75pts Each Way Martin Trainer 60/1 @ Boylesports (1/5 1-5)

Martin is currently in T5th, 9pts behind Reavie. Regular readers will be sick of us saying the same thing about Trainer but he really is a player who can stick around in the mix and his price is simply too big.

+ - Round 2 Bets Click to collapse

15 July 2022, 10am (UK time)

Player	Total
Hubbard	+13
Hoffman	+13
Garnett	+12
Crocker	+12
Cockerill	+12
Five Players Tied	+11

Round 1 Summary

Veteran Charley Hoffman and Mark Hubbard share the lead. Both players had seven birdies and a bogey to reach 13pts.

Notable Round 1 Quotes

"It’s just nice to be able to play golf. This year has been a tough year, with back issues. Back feels OK, so when it feels OK I want to play, so that’s why I’m playing." Charley Hoffman

"I feel comfortable out here. I’m from Colorado. I’m good with elevation, went to school (San Jose State) two hours from here, so it kind of feels like a home event, anyway." Mark Hubbard

Round 2 Weather

The morning starters have the best of the conditions with barely any wind, whilst it picks up to 16mph late afternoon.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Maverick McNealy remains favourite and is best priced 13/2. This looks like a prefect event for him to get off the mark, ranking 16th for birdie average and 3rd for eagles per hole this season. He is a player likley to win on tour soon and won't have much better chances than this week.

Mark Hubbard is next in the betting at 8/1 and given his form at the moment and his comfort levels at this course, he should be able to stick around. McNealy is preferred out of the two though.

Where is the value?

The outright market is still all to play for and a couple of morning starters have caught our eye.

Round 2 Bets

1pt Each Way Chez Reavie 40/1 @ Bet Victor (1/5 1-4)

Reavie is 4pts behind the leaders and is one of the class acts on the leaderboard. He is a proven PGA Tour winner and comes in on sneakily good form of late - 8th at Travelers and three other top 30's in his last six starts. Price is simply too big.

0.5pts Each Way Kelly Kraft 90/1 @ Bet Victor (1/5 1-4)

Kraft is one point further back and is another who's results have picked up of late. He has made 5 of his last 7 cuts including 15th in Mexico and 13th in Canada. A 2nd place at Barbasol three years ago at this time last year shows his potential and he can kick on from here with a nice R2 tee time.

0.5pts Each Way Jim Knous 125/1 @ Skybet (1/4 1-4)

Big hitting Jim Knous looks worth chancing at a massive price. He is only 2pts behind the leaders and looks to have the sort of aggressive game to suit here - he ranks 30th in the season birdie average stats. Although he's not done much this season, 25th in Canada and 11th at Fortinet show he's not a million miles off and can take advantage of this weak field to contend.

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