Preview
Course Info
Designer: Arthur Hills
Used Since: 2018
Fairways: Generous
Greens: Bentgrass
Water Hazards: On six holes
Par 5's: 5th, 8th, 11th and 15th
Premium on: Approach play
Significant Info
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
This event has been traditionally played opposite The Open but this year finds itself opposite the Scottish Open. As such, it is a co-sanctioned event with the DP World Tour.
Scoring has been low the past three years, birdies are the name of the game.
Weather
Thursday
Afternoon thunderstorms with a max wind speed of 6mph.
Friday
Possible thunderstorms with a max wind speed of 8mph.
Saturday
Possible thunderstorms with a max wind speed of 9mph.
Sunday
Cloudy with a max wind speed of 8mph.
Trends
Winning Score
We have seen winning scores of -21, -26 and -23 the past three years, expect low scoring again.
Course Form
Seamus Power had 53rd and 34th place finishes at the event. Neither champion before him had played the course before.
Recent Form
Seamus Power came into the event in excellent form, posting two top 10 finishes in his previous two events. Jim Herman had missed seven of his last eight cuts prior to winning. Troy Merritt had two top 20 finishes in his last four starts.
World Ranking
We haven't had a winner inside the top 200 in the world at Keene Trace, the past three winners ranking 210th, 1252nd and 327th.
Nationality
Americans have won two events at this course, an Irishman won the other.
Correlating Courses
None of note.
Stats Analysis
SG: Off The Tee
Looking at the three winners, Power ranked 15th, Herman ranked 27th in 2019, whilst Merritt ranked 14th in 2018.
Driving Accuracy
Power ranked 46th, Herman ranked 27th and Merritt ranked 23rd.
Driving Distance
Similar to driving accuracy, 39th, 27th and 34th.
SG: Approach
Approach play is key with Power ranking 17th and the two champions before him ranking 1st and 5th in this category.
Greens In Regulation
A similar story to SG: Approach with rankings of 8th, 2nd and 5th for the three past winners.
SG: Around The Green
Power was 8th last year but neither of the two course winners before him ranked in the top 40 in this category (52nd and 46th).
SG: Putting
Power was 19th, Herman ranked 1st whilst Merritt ranked 70th!
In Play
Tough Holes
The 17th and 18th played as the hardest holes last year.
Birdie Holes
The par 5's (5th, 8th, 11th and 15th) played as the easiest holes in 2021. The par 4 1st hole played as the next easiest.
Closing Stretch
The closing three holes were all ranked inside the four toughest holes for the week in 2021. All three played over par so bogeys are possible.
Fast or Slow Start
It has been vital to make a fast start in each of the three tournaments played at Keene Trace. Every winner has been inside the top 4 after the first round and Seamus Power was the first winner not to have led from halfway. Power was never worse than 5th so being up with the leaders is very important.
In-play
Barbasol Championship In-Play Blog
10 July 2022, 10:35am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| McGreevy (thru 3) |
-17 |
| Svensson (thru 3) |
-16 |
| Schmid (thru 3) |
-16 |
| Gouveia (thru 3) |
-15 |
| Three players tied |
-14 |
Round 2/3 Summary
Play was again suspended on several occasions, leaving the late starters only three holes into their 3rd round. Max McGreevy has snatched an early lead but it's still tight at the top.
Round 3/4 Weather
We are set for much better conditions today, meaning we should be able to finish the event today. Sunny all day and the wind will peak around 10mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Svensson remains favourite at 3/1 despite slipping behind and he still seems very short. Matti Schmid and Max McGreevy are next in the betting at around 5/1 and out of the two, McGreevy looks the best value. We mentioned in the blog yesterday he was under consideration at 18/1 so we are slightly kicking ourselves this morning. There is still a long way to go here though and we won't be backing anyone in single figures given the leaders are all chasing their first win on the PGA Tour.
Where is the value?
The outright market is still all to play for with four each way places available too.
Round 3/4 Bets
- 0.75pts Each Way Brandon Hagy 50/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-4)
Brandon is currently four back and although he doesn't look likely to birdie the par 5 5th, he has plenty of time to make up ground. He was on our shortlist pre-event at 200/1 but has had a poor 2022. Nevertheless, results in 2021 show what he's capable of - 2nd at Honda, 5th at the low scoring Barracuda and 6th at Rocket Mortgage.
9 July 2022, 10:35am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Svensson |
-15 |
| Mullinax (thru 13) |
-13 |
| Roussel |
-12 |
| Hubbard |
-12 |
| Hagy |
-12 |
| Lewis (thru 14) |
-12 |
| Byrd (thru 13) |
-12 |
| Schmid (thru 10) |
-12 |
| McGreevy (thru 9) |
-12 |
| Six players tied |
-11 |
Round 2 Summary
Play was suspended on several occasions, leaving the afternoon starters unable to finish. Adam Svensson holds a two shot overnight lead but with half the field yet to complete their 2nd round, he could yet be overtaken.
Round 3 Weather
Thunderstorms are once again possible throughout the day. The wind will peak around 12mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Svensson remains favourite at 7/2 but could well end the 2nd round trailing given the players behind him who still have a number of holes to play. Yesterday's 40/1 in-play selection, Trey Mullinax, has a reasonable chance of catching him given he has five holes remaining. There are also several players at -12 who have most of their back nine to play.
The 7/2 on Svensson seems short considering the number of chasers and we're happy to pass over him.
Matti Schmid (9/1) is the only other player priced up at single figures and the German youngster has to be respected. With eight holes left to play, he could yet catch Svensson.
Where is the value?
The outright market is still very much of interest given the number of players near the top. However, with further weather delays possible, we'll look to review after the 2nd round has been completed.
Round 3 Bets
Max McGreevy was under consideration at 18/1 but we are happy to let the players complete the 2nd round and look to review the action at the end of the day.
8 July 2022, 10:55am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Svensson |
-10 |
| Gouveia |
-8 |
| Roussel |
-8 |
| Eight Players Tied |
-7 |
Round 1 Summary
Adam Svensson leads the way after a 62 containing two eagles. DP World Tour pair Robin Roussel and Ricardo Gouveia surprised many with a pair of 64's despite no form to speak of coming in.
Round 2 Weather
Sunny throughout the morning with potential thunderstorms to arrive from 1pm onwards. Wind to reach a max of 8mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Svensson is now as short as 10/3 to win and he has to be respected given his two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour last year. Both of those wins came from off the pace and on the one occasion he has led after 36 holes at the MGM Championship, he ended up finishing 22nd, so it will be a new challenge for him to win from the front. Given the low scoring expected this week, he could potentially lose his lead with an average round and feels far too short at this stage.
The trio of Mark Hubbard, Matti Schmid and Kevin Streelman are all next in the betting and it's likely a couple of them will be contending over the weekend, however make no appeal at 16/1 or less.
Where is the value?
There are a couple of stand out prices in the outright market we would like to snap up this morning.
Round 2 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Michael Kim 35/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
Michael has been in steady form on the KFT with seven top 40's in his last eight starts. He is a player capable of taking hsi chance when it presents himself, shown with his 2018 win at the John Deere Classic following a stretch of missed cuts. That win also came in July and at a venue which requires low scoring. He can keep the foot down this week.
- 1pt Each Way Trey Mullinax 40/1 @ Unibet/BetRivers (1/5 1-5)
This is a stand out price with most books pricing Trey at 25/1. He was in the top 15 for putting and approach yesterday which is the combnation we are looking for this week. 2nd at the KFT Championship last year shows his potential which included a 63 and also won a low scoring KFT event in 2020 which included a 62.
