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2023 American Express Tips
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Event Info
Starts: 19th January 2023
Courses: Stadium & Nicklaus Courses at PGA West. La Quinta Country Club.
Par: 72
Length: 7,113 yards, 7,159 yards and 7,060 yards.
2022 Champion: Hudson Swafford
Course Info
Designer: Stadium - Pete Dye. Nicklaus - Jack Nicklaus. La Quinta - Lawrence Hughes.
Used since: 1960
Type: Resort style courses
Fairways: Wide
Greens: Bermuda
Premium on: Putting
Weather
Thursday
Partly Cloudy wind max 6mph.
Friday
Sunny wind max 9mph.
Saturday
Sunny wind max 6mph.
Sunday
Sunny wind max 5mph.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
-A number of players have not competed since November or early December.
-In 2021, due to Covid, there were no amateurs and La Quinta Country Club was dropped.
-The cut will be made after 54 holes. Note that the cut was made after 36 holes in 2021.
-The Nicklaus played as the 2nd easiest course on Tour the past three years. The Stadium is slightly harder but still easy.
Trends
Winning Score
Since the tournament changed to a four round event in 2012, the winning score has been between -20 and -28. We can expect the winning score to be at least 20 under par again.
World Ranking
World rankings of the past eight winners before their win has been 166-96-240-417-3-204-120-33-69 (most recent first). Surprises do happen here!
Previous Wins
Nine of the last eleven winners had won on the PGA Tour before.
Correlating Courses
With the Stadium course being the host course, there are arguments for looking at form on other Pete Dye designed courses. The 3M Open seems to be a strong correlating event.
Course Form
Since 2012, six of the ten champions had posted a top 25 finish prior to winning. If we extend that to top 35 finishes, eight of the past ten champions had that prior to winning.
Course Experience
Only one of the past eleven winners was making his tournament debut. Side with course experience when making your American Express picks.
Recent Form
With the event coming early in the year, the recent form of past champions has been mixed. The common factor amongst the past eleven winners is that ten had already teed it up that calendar year (regardless of how they had performed). Indeed, four of the top five last year played the week before at the Sony Open. Look for someone who has dusted off the clubs before this week.
Nationality
Americans have dominated with 9 of the last 11 winners. We wouldn't put too much emphasis on it though.
Stats Analysis
We only have Strokes Gained stats from the Stadium Course (with the exception of 2021, where SG was recorded on the Nicklaus course also).
Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
The past six champions have ranked 45-10-7-72-6-1 (most recent first). With the exception of Adam Long in 2019 and Hudson Swafford last year, winners have driven the ball well.
Driving Distance
The past nine champions have ranked 29-53-126-56-7-6-96-67-12 (most recent first).
Driving Accuracy
The past nine champions have ranked 76-38-7-25-46-122-10-49-75 (most recent first). If you are looking to make an American Express pick, hitting fairways aren't essential.
Strokes Gained: Approach
The past six champions have ranked 4-2-13-69-16-9 (most recent first).
Greens In Regulation
The past enine champions have ranked 33-1-9-62-26-1-24-3-14 (most recent first). Adam Long was the outlier in this category in 2019.
Putts per GIR
The past nine champions have ranked 8-14-1-1-8-31-9-58-4. (most recent first). Putting is crucial this week.
In-Play Golf Betting Advice
Tough Holes
The par 3, 17th hole on the Stadium Course is one to watch out for. Like another Dye design, TPC Sawgrass, players are challenged with an island green. It played as the hardest hole on the course in 2021, averaging 0.21 shots over par. Two of the other par 3s, the 6th and 13th, were next hardest in 2021 (averaging 0.16 and 0.09 shots over par). Completing the holes averaging over par in 2021 were the 18th and 3rd (both averaging 0.08 shots over par).
Birdie Holes
In 2021 and 2020 the 11th, 16th and 8th played as the easiest holes. The par 3 4th hole also regularly plays under par.
Fast or Slow Start
Generally speaking, it's important to get off to a fast start. Hudson Swafford may have started slowly last year ( 70 in the opening round) but past winners have shown a fast start can be hugely beneficial. Since 2016, the highest score recorded by the winner in round one was 66.
However, the past three years have shown us players can make a significant move on the final day. Hudson Swafford fired a final round 64 to take the title last year. Si Woo Kim jointly led through 54 holes in 2021 but Patrick Cantlay shot a final round 61 to lose out by only one shot. We saw a similar scenario play out in 2020 with Abraham Ancer firing a final round 63 to take solo 2nd.
Previous American Express tips
You can access our historical American Express tips using the links below:
2022
2021
2023 American Express Tips
You can sign up for all our American Express tips and PGA Tour tips for 2023 by clicking the button below.
In-play
American Express In-Play Blog
22nd January 2023, 12:35pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| D Thompson |
-23 |
| Rahm |
-23 |
| Bezuidenhout |
-19 |
| Poston |
-19 |
| Kim |
-18 |
| Higgs |
-18 |
| Burns |
-18 |
| Montgomery |
-18 |
2023 American Express Round 3 Summary
Jon Rahm cruised through his first 12 holes in 8 under par but could only play the last six holes in one over par. As a result, he is now tied for the lead with the halfway leader Davis Thompson.
Notable Round 3 American Express Quotes
"Yeah, it's great. I feel like I don't have anything to lose in my rookie year. Just kind of freewheel it." Davis Thompson
"Nothing but positive. That's all I can say. Ball striking felt amazing. Hit a lot of great shots out there off the tee. Giving myself a lot of opportunities with the irons. Took advantage of quite a few of them. So very confident going into tomorrow and knowing that I'm going to have to shoot another low score if I want to have a chance to win." Jon Rahm
American Express Round 4 Weather
Sunny with barely any wind, expected to peak at 4mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Rahm is now 4/7 favourite and he is oozing confidence at the moment. This would be four wins in his last six starts which have included two 62's and a 63 on Sunday. Quite frankly, we can't see him not winning this now and wouldn't put you off taking the 4/7 if you don't mind taking odds on prices.
It is incredibly unfortunate for our subscribers that Rahm has brought his best stuff this week, having a 300/1 ticket on Davis Thompson pre-event. Thompson is a strong driver of the ball, which is what we liked about him before the event, but he will need to take his chances on the greens today to have any chance. He lacks PGA Tour experience in this position and we expect him to come up just short.
Where is the value?
There are a couple of 3-ball picks we like today.
Round 4 Bet
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21st January 2023, 11:35am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Thompson D |
-18 |
| Rahm |
-16 |
| Kim |
-13 |
| Poston |
-13 |
| Day |
-13 |
| Duncan |
-13 |
| Im |
-13 |
| Kizzire |
-12 |
2023 American Express Round 2 Summary
Our pre-event 300/1 selection Davis Thompson maintains a two shot lead with three eagles in his second round. Jon Rahm remains on his coat tails and there is five shots between Thompson and 3rd place.
Notable Round 2 American Express Quotes
"I think it has to do a lot with last year. Playing on the Korn Ferry Tour and also just playing on some sponsor exemptions out here right when I turned pro. I'm still a rookie, still learning these golf courses, but there is a comfort level to kind of know what to expect at every tournament." Davis Thompson
"Stadium I remember that year played a little bit more difficult. I think I shot even or 1-under on that third round and barely lost any ground. Pretty sure if I do that tomorrow I will lose some ground. So just got to keep on going." Jon Rahm
American Express Round 3 Weather
Sunny with barely any wind, expected to peak at 4mph. Expect low scores.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Jon Rahm is 6/5 favourite and it's very tempting for us to lump on at that price as we are big on Thompson. We would expect Rahm to be at least tied for the lead by the end of the day but the worry is that one of the group at 13 under goes low and enters the mix.
As for Thompson, he seems to have a remarkably mature head on his shoulders and he seems to be aware he will have to stay aggressive to keep pace with Rahm today. The putter will likely decide his fate as he is playing superbly tee to green.
Where is the value?
We can't see anything we like today and will wait and see how round three progresses.
Round 3 Bet
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20th January 2023, 8:15am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Thompson D |
-10 |
| Montgomery |
-8 |
| Schmid |
-8 |
| Burns |
-8 |
| Rahm |
-8 |
| Duncan |
-8 |
| Nine players tied |
-7 |
2023 American Express Round 1 Summary
Our pre-event 300/1 selection Davis Thompson has a two shot lead after day one. Jon Rahm has got off to a hot start too and is in tied 2nd place, two back.
Notable Round 1 American Express Quotes
" Yeah, I was able to come out here early before I went to Hawaii and played out here on the Nicklaus Course. So I was a little familiar with it." Davis Thompson
"I'm happy I played this golf course in these easy of conditions. And, yeah, it can show some teeth because some of those fairways are quite narrow to hit. Missing fairways, it's not going to cost you too much, but you can't be throwing darts like you usually do off the fairway here. If you put it in the fairway you have a short iron in. If you start getting gusts, it can get away from you. Mainly because it's a golf course where you can shoot of 5- or lower pretty often and if you play the other courses on pace and don't shoot low here you can find yourself just a little bit off of the lead group. We all have to play all courses. If it's blowing tomorrow on Nicklaus, Nicklaus can also show some teeth. It all evens out." Jon Rahm
American Express Round 2 Weather
Sunny with the wind expected to peak at 10mph. Today should be the windiest day out of the four.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Jon Rahm is quite understandably 5/2 favourite given he has won two of his last three starts. It should be worth noting though that he shot 6 under in round one at La Quinta last year and slowed up at the Nicklaus course the following day with two under, so he might not have it all his own way today.
Taylor Montgomery and Sam Burns are next in the betting around the 10/1 mark and out of the two, Burns is preferred having played the Stadium Course and a much more experienced talent on the PGA Tour. We were tempted to back him but the presence of Rahm is putting us off taking a win only bet.
Xander Schauffele is next at 12/1, however, it's not a price we would like to take with doubts surrounding his fitness.
Where is the value?
There wasn't a great deal of difference in the scoring, with the Nicklaus Course playing marginally easier than La Quinta and Stadium. Slight preference is given to those already played the Stadium, which generally plays harder.
Round 2 Bet
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