3M Open 2022

Event Info

Starts: 21st July 2022
Course: TPC Twin Cities, Minnesota
Par: 71
Length: 7,431 yards
2021 Champion: Cameron Champ

Preview
In-play

Preview

Course Info

Designer: Arnold Palmer
Used Since: 2019
Fairways: Generous
Greens: Bentgrass
Water Hazards: On 14 holes
Par 5's: 6th, 12th and 18th
Premium on: Approach and Putting

Significant Info

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.

This event follows the British Open so be wary of those suffering fatigue after a tough mental week.

Weather

Dry in the lead up to the tournament, but showers should arrive on Friday morning. Potential thunderstorms are forecast on Saturday.

Thursday
Sunny with a max wind speed of 13mph.

Friday
Am Showers with a max wind speed of 9mph.

Saturday
Thunderstorms with a max wind speed of 7mph.

Sunday
Mostly sunny with a max wind speed of 9mph.

Trends

Winning Score
Cameron Champ won with -15 in 2022. We saw winning scores of -19 and -21 the previous two years, expect low scoring again.

Course Form
Champ only had a missed cut to his name prior to his win here. The top two in 2021 didn't have any significant course form, Michael Thompson finished 85th in 2019 and Adam Long missed the cut. Wolff won in 2019 when nobody had played the course before. You can play well here without having previous form.

Recent Form
Champ had finished 11th at the John Deere on his last start before his win however he hadn't made a cut in his previous five starts. Neither of the 2020 & 2021 winners of this event had posted a top 40 finish in their previous three starts. Recent form is not essential.

World Ranking
Champ was 117th. The 2021 champion, Michael Thompson, ranked 215th in the world. The 2019 champion, Matt Wolff, ranked 1659th!! Wolff had only just turned pro, hence his world ranking, but shocks can happen here.

Nationality
Americans have won all three events here.

Correlating Courses
None of note.

Stats Analysis

SG: Off The Tee
Looking at the three winners, Champ ranked 39th, Thompson ranked 88th last year, whilst Wolff ranked 32nd in 2019.

Driving Accuracy
Champ ranked 92nd, Thompson ranked 33rd and Wolff ranked 34th.

Driving Distance
Champ ranked 10th but neither of the previous winners ranked inside the top 50, Thompson ranked 97th and Wolff ranked 64th.

SG: Approach
Champ ranked 19th. Both previous winners ranked inside the top 4 (Thompson 2nd and Wolff 4th). Approach play is key.

Greens In Regulation
Mirrors SG: Approach to a certain extent, 26th, 4th and 6th for the last three winners.

SG: Around The Green
Champ ranked 48th. Thompson ranked 104th last year, but Wolff ranked 32nd in 2019.

SG: Putting
Champ ranked 1st. Thompson ranked 6th, but Wolff ranked 59th. It should be noted that Wolff would have ranked higher were it not for a poor final round with the putter.

In Play

Tough Holes
The 9th is by far the hardest hole on the course. The 3rd and the 13th also cause problems, playing over par.

Birdie Holes
The par 5's (6th, 12th and 18th) are all birdie opportunities. The 1st hole and 16th hole both played significantly under par last year too.

Closing Stretch
The 18th is a par 5 and offers birdie and even eagle opportunities (Wolff eagled this hole to win in 2019).

Fast or Slow Start

Champ was 38th after round one and 19th after round two.

Michael Thompson was never worse than 2nd place after any round last year. Matthew Wolff was 49th after round 1 and 35th after round 2.

Two out of the three winners of this event have led after three rounds.

In-play

3M Open In-Play Blog

24 July 2022, 11am (UK time)

Player	Total
Piercy	-18
Grillo	-14
Ghim	-13
Finau	-13
Hoge	-12
Im	-11
Sigg	-11
Three Players Tied	-10

Round 3 Summary

Play was disrupted for over 7 hours yesterday and it was a tale of two halves. Piercy and Grillo played the first 7 holes in a combined 9 under par before the suspension but could only manage to play their last eleven holes in level par after the delay. Piercy developed a blister on his foot during the break which meant he was in some discomfort throughout the back nine. Meanwhile Doug Ghim and Tony Finau finished strong to get within five shots of Piercy.

Notable Round 3 Quotes

"When you walk that weird, your body kind of adjusts, so putting the shoe back up on and trying to get set up over it correctly, I felt like I couldn’t get into my setup like I normally do and I felt that’s like where a couple of the loose shots came from, along with the tiredness." Scott Piercy

"If (Piercy) brings half of his game from today to tomorrow, that’s going to be very tough." Emiliano Grillo

Round 4 Weather

We have good news as the sun is set to shine all day. The wind will be more of a factor today reaching 16mph in the early afternoon.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Piercy has held six PGA Tour leads after 54 holes and converted two of them. He has not led since the 2016 WGC at Bridgestone, so the feeling won't be fresh for him. There were signs of tiredness towards the end of his round and we have our doubts how he will be able to handle it if someone makes a charge at him. We're happy to pass on odds of 8/11.

Similarly, Grillo had a great chance to eat into Piercy's lead but did not take it yesterday. It is no longer a two horse race and for that reason odds of 11/2 don't interest us at all. Grillo has a habit of always being the bridesmaid and this could be the case here, although we hope he surprises us with pre-event 60/1 tickets.

Tony Finau's odds (5/1) have remained the same from this time yesterday but they look much more favourable now. He has shortened the lead and there is much less traffic around. A final round 64 in Canada last month was a great effort and only an on-song Rory McIlroy stopped him from winning that day. He looks most likely to capitalise should Piercy not show up today.

Doug Ghim is a fine wind player but he has struggled in contention on the rare occasion he has been up there. It's possible to see him mounting a charge today but whether he can close it out we would have our doubts.

Where is the value?

The market is very dependent on the performance of Scott Piercy today. Nothing is screaming out at us so we will cheer on our pre-event bet on Grillo.

Round 4 Bets

No Bet

+ - Round 3 Bets Click to collapse

23 July 2022, 11.10am (UK time)

Player	Total
Piercy	-13
Grillo	-10
Tarren	-8
Hoge	-7
Finau	-7
Im	-7
Streb	-7
Ghim	-7

Round 2 Summary

The three leaders produced the best rounds of the day in a combined 21 under par and only one bogey between them. Piercy now leads by three over our pre-event 60/1 selection Emiliano Grillo. First round leader Sungjae Im has now fallen six behind.

Notable Round 2 Quotes

"There’s a lot of business to take care of this weekend, but to come out the first two days and do what I did gives me a lot of confidence going into the weekend. I’ve been out here a long time, I know what I need to do." Scott Piercy

"I hit every green today, so I had so many chances, I actually missed probably four or five inside 10 feet, so it could have been ridiculous." Callum Tarren

Round 3 Weather

Play has been brought forward today with a two-tee start due to thunderstorms that could arrive around midday. There is a good chance we don't get the round finished today. Wind shouldn't be much of a factor.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Piercy has won three PGA Tour events but his last was the Barbasol back in 2015. He is currently 138th in the FedEx Cup standings so will have a lot of pressure on himself to perform well this weekend. He ranks 7th tee to green and 1st for putting this week so far and will likely need to maintain that performance on the greens. Our gut is that he will struggle to maintain this level of play and odds of 5/2 aren't tempting us with a lot of golf left to be played.

Next in the betting is our man Grillo at 5/1. He is playing beautifully tee to green (ranks 3rd) and the putter is also behaving. Grillo is currently 92nd in the FedEx Cup rankings so has a lot to play for himself. We can expect another strong round from the Argentinian today but he is another who hasn't won since 2015, so caution is advised at short odds.

Tony Finau and Sungjae Im have left themselves a lot of work to do over the weekend and look too short at 11/2 and 7/1.

Where is the value?

There a few players at the seven/eight under catching our eye. Callum Tarren looks a great price on the Betfair Exchange (16.5) but 12/1 on the high street isn't as generous.

Round 3 Bets

1pt Each Way Robert Streb 33/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-4)

Robert looks overpriced - twice the price of Doug Ghim who is on the same score at seven under par. Streb is a two-time winner on tour, as recently as the 2020 RSM Classic. He has clearly been well out of form but he is capable of showing up for a big week on occasion, like he did for top 10 finishes at Valspar and Houston this season.

+ - Round 2 Bets Click to collapse

22 July 2022, 10.10am (UK time)

Player	Total
Im	-6
Piercy	-6
Hoge	-4
Garnett	-4
Ghim	-4
Finau	-4
Grillo	-4

Round 1 Summary

Scott Piery and Sungjae Im took advantage of slightly less wind in the morning to jointly lead by two shots after the opening round. Tony Finau and Emiliano Grillo were the only players to shoot four under par or better from the afternoon wave.

Notable Round 1 Quotes

"I love it here. I think Minneapolis is a great place. I have family here, it's a good golf course, I like the golf course, great fans and great food. It's a hard place to beat. Actually, I'm far from a fisherman, but it's the one time of year I know I'm going to go fishing on the lakes out here. My family and I usually get a house around here. Nothing but lakes around here, so no shortage of fish. It's quite fun for my family to be here and it's 2 Tee-Scripts.com our -- again, it's our one time of year we know we're going to go fishing." Tony Finau

"I think everything worked out today. Tough golf day, very windy, course was drying up, so I actually think it was one of my best rounds of the year. It almost felt like I almost had no chance of making bogey out there. Left a few, felt I could have snagged a few more out there, so I'm very pleased the way I played." Emiliano Grillo

Round 2 Weather

The wind will be fairly consistent throughout the day, peaking at 11mph early afternoon. Cloudy in the morning and sunny in the afternoon.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Sunjae Im is the 7/2 favourite, closely followed by Tony Finau at 5/1. Im mentioned in his post round press conference that he made a tweak to his putting stroke and that certainly helped as he topped the SG: Putting stats for the opening round. Whether he can continue to putt that well remains to be seen and with leaders having a poor record at this venue, we don't see the need to rush in at the odds available.

Finau makes slightly more appeal given the quality of his long game (2nd SG: Tee to Green in round 1) and the apparent comfort he has in this area. Finau has family living in Minneapolis and that support will no doubt help him over the next few days. However, he remains prone to lapses of concentration and he too can be passed over at such short odds.

Previous events at TPC Twin Cities have shown us that it is not necessary to get off to a hot start. Two of the three winners here were outside the top 35 after the opening round and Matt Wolff was as far back as 49th after round one in 2019!

Where is the value?

With those further down the leaderboard under consideration, we are happy to add one big price outright selection and one three ball tip.

Round 2 Bets

0.5pts Each Way Jared Wolfe 250/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-5)

Wolfe is three shots off the pace but is priced up much too high by Skybet. A rookie on the PGA Tour, it's been a struggle for much of the year and it looked like another missed cut was imminent after a double bogey on his 2nd hole. However, he bounced back the way he did. A multiple winner on the PGA Tour Latinoamerica, he went on to win twice on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020. He's yet to win at this level but it's encouraging that he's won so many times in just over 150 career starts.

1.5pts Michael Thompson to beat Chez Reavie and Cameron Champ 2/1 @ BetVictor

Thompson won this threeball by three shots yesterday and he's a nice price to back it up with another win today. Champ is badly out of form and can be expected to struggle again today. Reavie won last week but he's turned in poor performances after three of his four career wins and he's unlikely to be too bothered about making the cut from his current position. Thompson came into this week on the back of a 9th place finish at Barracuda and is a past champion here. Take the 2/1 for him to triumph.

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