Event Info
Starts: 22nd July 2021
Course: TPC Twin Cities, Minnesota
Par: 71
Length: 7,431 yards
2020 Champion: Michael Thompson
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: +145.28pts
Pre-Event Bets: +149.78pts
0.75pts EW Ryan Moore 60/1 @ 888Sport (1/5 1-8)
0.75pts EW Mito Perreira 80/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-8)
0.75pts EW Cameron Champ 150/1 @ 10bet (1/4 1-5)
0.5pts EW James Hahn 175/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
0.5pts EW Kevin Tway 200/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Robby Shelton 300/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-8)
In-Play Bets: -4.5pts
23 July 2021(0pts)
0.5pts EW Josh Teater 125/1 @ Unibet (1/4 1-5)
1pt EW Chez Reavie 2ND ROUND LEADER 20/1 @ Betfair (1/4 1-4)
24 July 2021 (-1.5pts)
0.75pts EW Brice Garnett 50/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
25 July 2021 (-3pts)
1.5pts EW Pat Perez 20/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-4)
Preview
Course Info
Designer: Arnold Palmer
Used Since: 2019
Fairways: Generous
Greens: Bentgrass
Water Hazards: On 14 holes
Par 5's: 6th, 12th and 18th
Premium on: Approach
Significant Info
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
The players experienced windy conditions during the 2nd round last year. Don't be put off if a player you like scored badly on Friday last year.
Weather
Thursday
Partly cloudy with a max wind speed of 12mph.
Friday
Mostly sunny with a max wind speed of 11mph.
Saturday
Partly cloudy with a max wind speed of 10mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny with a max wind speed of 8mph.
Trends
Winning Score
We have seen winning scores of -19 and -21 the past two years, expect low scoring again.
Course Form
Wolff won in 2019 when nobody had played the course before. The top two last year didn't have any significant course form, Michael Thompson finished 85th in 2019 and Adam Long missed the cut. You can play well here without having played here before.
Recent Form
Neither of the winners of this event had posted a top 40 finish in their previous three starts. Recent form is not essential.
World Ranking
Last year's champion, Michael Thompson, ranked 215th in the world. The 2019 champion, Matt Wolff, ranked 1659th!! Wolff had only just turned pro, hence his world ranking, but shocks can happen here.
Nationality
Americans have won both events here.
Correlating Courses
None of note.
Stats Analysis
SG: Off The Tee
Looking at the two winners, Thompson ranked 88th last year, whilst Wolff ranked 32nd in 2019.
Driving Accuracy
Thompson ranked 33rd and Wolff ranked 34th. The rough is cut to 3.5 inches so accuracy is preferred but not essential.
Driving Distance
Surprisingly, neither winner ranked inside the top 50, Thompson ranked 97th and Wolff ranked 64th.
SG: Approach
Both winners ranked inside the top 4 (Thompson 2nd and Wolff 4th). Approach play is key.
Greens In Regulation
Mirrors SG: Approach to a certain extent, 4th and 6th for the last two winners.
SG: Around The Green
Thompson ranked 104th last year but Wolff ranked 32nd in 2019.
SG: Putting
Thompson ranked 6th but Wolff ranked 59th. It should be noted that Wolff would have ranked higher were it not for a poor final round with the putter.
In Play
Tough Holes
The 9th is by far the hardest hole on the course, averaging 4.31 and 4.28 the past two years. The 3rd and the 13th also cause problems, playing over par each of the past two years.
Birdie Holes
The par 5's (6th, 12th and 18th) are all birdie opportunities. The 1st hole and 16th hole both played significantly under par last year too.
Closing Stretch
The 18th is a par 5 and offers birdie and even eagle opportunities (Wolff eagled this hole to win in 2019). The 17th played as the 6th hardest hole last year.
Fast or Slow Start
Michael Thompson was never worse than 2nd place after any round last year. Matthew Wolff was 49th after round 1 and 35th after round 2.
Both winners of this event have led after three rounds.
In-play
3M Open In-Play Blog
24th July 2021, 12.45pm
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Tringale | -12 |
| Woodland | -11 |
| McNealy | -11 |
| Perez | -10 |
| Reavie | -10 |
| Champ | -10 |
| Walker | -10 |
| Vegas | -10 |
| Schwartzel | -10 |
| Sloan | -10 |
| Armour | -10 |
Windy conditions at the 3M Open gave us some fantastic drama over the closing holes and Cameron Tringale has emerged as the leader with one round to go at TPC Twin Cities.
Tringale has yet to win on the PGA Tour and will be hoping this is finally his time. The American cut a relaxed figure in his post round interview, seemingly very pleased with his season so far and described there only being "upsides" to whatever happens in today's final round.
If the 33 year old is to win, he must buck the recent trend on the PGA Tour of 3rd round leaders failing to win. Only once in the past 12 events has a 3rd round leader converted. However, in his favour is the fact both winners of this event have led after 54 holes.
Tringale may have had a positive attitude yesterday but he doesn't have the best record when in contention. He's only led once after 54 holes and that was a joint lead at the 2019 John Deere Classic. He would shoot 73 and finish 16th that day and whilst he's a much improved player since then, we're still happy to take him on. Odds of 10/3 definitely aren't for us given his history under pressure and the fact there are 15 players within three shots of the lead.
Chasing Tringale are two top quality players. Gary Woodland is a major winner and Maverick McNealy is a winner in waiting on the PGA Tour. Both priced around the 6/1 mark, they are fairly priced in the market. However, neither player ranks particularly highly in our Pressure Performance Ratings (see their Player Profiles) and we're happy to look further down the leaderboard.
Our 150/1 pre-event tip, Cameron Champ, put his ball in the water twice in the final five holes but remarkably remains only two shots off the pace. Balls in the water were a common trend over the final five holes and nobody suffered more than Bo Hoag (although Sung Kang made a 12 on the 18th). It looked like Hoag would open up a lead going into the final round but balls in the water on 17 and 18 along with missed putts on the back nine means he dropped back to eight under par.
If we weren't already on Champ he would probably be the player we'd look to back today. Other than the two balls that went in the water, Champ was assured and in control of his ball. He disappointed two weeks ago at the John Deere Classic but he's retained his 4⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating due to the impressive nature of his 3 career wins in less than 100 starts.
The current forecast for round four is sunshine, with the wind peaking at 12mph in the afternoon. Television commentators suggested the wind direction is due to change from the 3rd round so be aware this may cause holes to play differently today.
Round 4 Bet
- 1.5pts Each Way Pat Perez 20/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-4)
An opening 72 put Pat well behind but he now has momentum given he's posted rounds of 65 and 66 the past two days. He's bogey free for his last 42 holes, an impressive feat given how tricky conditions are. He spoke in his post round press conference about how he's been working with his coach on his putting and he now feels confident again. Finally, he will become a father again in a few weeks when his partner Ashley gives birth to his son. The impending Nappy Factor, especially as it will be his first son, may well just give Pat an edge today and allow him to win for the 4th time on Tour.
24th July 2021, 12.45pm
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Hadwin | -10 |
| Armour | -10 |
| Vegas | -9 |
| Hoag | -9 |
| Reavie | -9 |
| Sloan | -9 |
Matching 65s saw Adam Hadwin and Ryan Armour open up a one stroke lead at the top of the leaderboard at the 3M Open.
Hadwin is now the 8/1 favourite as he seeks to add a 2nd PGA Tour title to his resume. The Canadian hasn't won since the Valspar Championship in 2017 but it's worth noting he led after 36 holes and went on to convert. In his post round interview yesterday he spoke of "knowing the feeling" in relation to leading and he'll be hoping to draw upon that experience for the final 36 holes.
It's been fairly stress free golf for Hadwin and Armour, each have dropped only one shot all week. Armour was on the fringes of contention last week at Barbasol and he's clearly playing well right now. Ranking 6th SG: Tee To Green through the opening 36 holes, he'll be hoping to improve on last week's 5th place finish.
Armour hasn't won since 2017 either and finds himself priced up at 10/1. He disappointed when in serious contention at the Bermuda Championship at the end of last year and for the time being we're happy to leave him out the staking plan.
Yesterday's 2nd round leader bet, Chez Reavie, bogeyed the par 5 18th hole to fall out of a tie for the lead. We collect a share of the each way place money for him but it could have been so much more had he birdied.
The current forecast for round three is sunny intervals, with the wind peaking at 14mph in the afternoon.
There are 25 players within four shots of the lead and with the wind potentially causing problems we're quite happy to select someone off the pace and look for him to move up the board.
Round 3 Bet
- 0.75pts Each Way Brice Garnett 50/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
Brice is three shots off the pace at halfway but he's a decent price to make progress over the weekend. All parts of his game are in solid working order so far this week and he's capable of getting hot with the putter. Windier conditions shouldn't faze him given he's won in Puntacana and has a solid record at Mayakoba and other coastal events. He has a solid record in this event with two top 26 finishes in his two starts here so he's a sound bet at 50/1.
23rd July 2021, 08.25am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Fowler | -7 |
| Merritt | -7 |
| Vegas | -7 |
| Stallings | -6 |
| Schenk | -6 |
| Sloan (thru 16) | -6 |
A weather delay meant that round one of the 3M open wasn't completed and 11 players still have to complete their opening 18 holes.
Twelve of the current top 20 teed off in the morning and it is one of those players who is now favourite with the bookmakers. Rickie Fowler rolled back the years to shoot a bogey free round of 64. Notably, he putted like Rickie of old, ranking 2nd for SG: Putting.
Rickie mentioned in his post round interview that his driving had been poor last week but more room off the tee this week allows for greater margin of error. He's a 7/1 shot if you want to back him but he's not for us at this stage. There's plenty of water around this course and if he isn't entirely happy with his driving that could lead to problems later in the week.
We've only had two renewals of the 3M Open but they've given us mixed information from an in-play betting perspective. Michael Thompson was never worse than 2nd place after any round last year. Conversely, Matthew Wolff was 49th after round 1. With that in mind, we're taking one from further back for today's in-play bets along with a 2nd round leader bet.
The current forecast for round two is sunny intervals, with the wind peaking at 12mph in the afternoon.
Round 2 Bets
- 0.5pts Each Way Josh Teater 125/1 @ Unibet (1/4 1-5)
Josh posted an afternoon round of 67 yesterday where he ranked 2nd SG: Tee To Green. He came into this week on the back of a 15th place finish last week at the Barbasol where he ranked 1st SG: Putting. If he can rediscover last week's putting to match yesterday's impressive long game stats, he shouldn't be too far away come Sunday. He was capable in chasing down Viktor Hovland at the Puerto Rico Open in 2020 and we think there is value to be had at 100/1 or better.
- 1pt Each Way Chez Reavie 2ND ROUND LEADER 20/1 @ Betfair (1/4 1-4)
Chez is currently 2 shots off the pace, having opened with a five under par 66. He's off early in round two and can make up ground on the leaders. He's been in solid form the past month and his round 2 scoring has been particularly notable. He has made the cut in five of his last six starts and in those five events, his round 2 scoring has been 66-67-67-68-69 (most recent event first). He's clearly got that Friday feeling and odds of 20/1 are fair for him to lead after two rounds here.
