Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -1.5pts
Pre-Event bets: -7.5pts
1pt EW Patrick Reed (1/5 1-7) - 30/1 @ Bet365
0.75ptsEW Cameron Smith (1/5 1-6) - 55/1 @ Unibet
0.75ptsEW Justin Rose (1/5 1-7) - 66/1 @ Unibet
0.5ptsEW Matthew Wolff (1/5 1-7) - 90/1 @ William Hill
0.25ptsEW Lee Westwood (1/5 1-6) - 160/1 @ Unibet
1pt Erik Van Rooyen Top 10 finish - 16/1 @ Ladbrokes
In-Play bets: +6pts
26 February 2021 (+9pts)
1pt EW Viktor Hovland (1/5 1-5) - 50/1 @ Betway
27 February 2021 (-2pts)
1pt EW Hideki Matsuyama (1/5 1-4) - 66/1 @ Bet365
28 February 2021 (-1pts)
1pt Webb Simpson WIN Only - 9/1 @ Skybet
Course Notes
PGA Tour dominance
Despite a few European Tour players win form, leaderboard was packed with players from PGA Tour. The fast undulated greens mean the best players cope and the bottom 20 was littered with Europeans.
Accuracy over Power
With the amount of water in play, avoiding wild shots is essential, especially as balls that find the water are usually penalised heavily by having to drop far back.
Wind
There wasn't too much wind to speak of but it was clear if it blew hard, it would be very hard to score well.
Player Notes
Patrick Reed: This place is awesome. I came out and played nine yesterday and nine today. The golf course is in perfect shape and this golf course from the tee, it looked really wide but you had to have command on the golf ball. The wind will blow, you'll get some of those crosswinds. Whether it's water edges or bunkers seems to tighten it up. It's one of those that you have to stay aggressive, but at the same time have to have full control of your golf ball.
"For me I felt like putting was okay as long as you hit it in the correct sections of the greens. I was hitting putts from incorrect sections and they're doable on most holes, but the problem is when you miss the green, that - it's really grainy, it's really tight and the banks are really steep where there's some of those chips that you think you can bump that just don't bounce and they come back to your feet. At the same time, if I hit a foot too far and it goes over the green and down another hill."
Justin Thomas: It's a good track. It's all right in front of you. I think the opportunity to challenge some holes off the tee that you can play a little bit more aggressively. A lot of water, very typical Florida course in that aspect. It definitely seems like an amateur golfer's nightmare. It's very difficult and grainy around the greens and a lot of elevated greens. It's a lot of holes that we've had a hard time finding four pin placements because the greens are so severe. If the greens were firm, it would be challenging I think is an understatement, but I think it's going to still be a good test considering how the course will evolve over the course of the week.
"The Greens are very tough. I mean, like I said, I think this is an amateur golfer's nightmare. The greens are very elevated, it's very grainy, the grass is tight. You can hit it in a lot of spots around the greens where you're just kind of chipping it back and forth and having a hard time. Getting in the right spots is very important, but being able to execute the shots and sometimes just limit the damage is just as important."
Preview
Course Info
Course Designer: Jack Nicklaus/Tony Jacklin
Tournament played here since: First time
Type of Course: Parkland
Fairways: Average-Wide
Rough: Minimal
Greens: Bermuda TifEagle, grainy, elevated, run off areas surround the greens
Water Hazards: In play on 13 holes
Par 5's: 3rd, 7th, 13th and 17th
Premium on: Approach play and short game
Significant Info
This is the first WGC event of the year and at a completely new venue which has not been used on the PGA Tour. The field will be 72 players with no cut.
Much of the talk pre-event has been how difficult the course is, and that danger lurks everywhere. We can expect a wide range in scoring from the small field. See our player quotes for a full picture of the challenge ahead.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather
Sunny and dry all four days with temperatures peaking in the mid 80's Fahrenheit. Players have spoken of crosswinds causing a challenge, Sunday is the windiest day forecasted at 13mph.
Thursday: max 7mph winds forecast
Friday: max 9mph winds forecast
Saturday: max 10mph winds forecast
Sunday: max 13mph winds forecast
Trends
Winning Score
No professional event has ever been played here before but Bryson DeChambeau won the 2015 NCAA with a winning score of -8.
Price of Winner
Patrick Reed was 50/1 last year but the previous six winners all started at 25/1 or under. Obviously we can't read too much into that.
Correlating Courses
We can potentially look to the Florida Swing - Bay Hill Golf Club (Arnold Palmer Invitational), Sawgrass (Players Championship) and The PGA National (Honda Classic) - for clues. Copperhead which hosts the Valspar Championship is also in Florida. The undulation and run off areas looks similar to that of Augusta and Riviera.
Nationality
Since 2011, at different courses, we have had 8 American winners, one English and one Australian winner of this WGC event.
Stats Analysis
We have no previous stats to analyse, again for obvious reasons.
In Play
Tough Holes
2nd, 5th and 18th are all par 4's of 470+ yards. Par 3 4th is 237 yards and Par 3 11th is 211 yards with water surrounding.
Birdie Holes
Reachable Par 4 12th and the par 5 13th. Note the other three par 5's are all 600 yards+ so won't be a given.
Closing Stretch
16th is a par 4 with water all along the left, 17th is a reachable par 5 with water along the left once again, 18th is a demanding par 4 with water all up the right hand side.
Fast or Slow Start
There hasn't yet been an event at this course.
In-play
In-Play Blog
28 February 2021, 11:40am
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Morikawa |
-15 |
| Koepka |
-13 |
| Horschel |
-13 |
| Simpson |
-12 |
As so often happens on a Saturday, it was beginning to look like we were in for a dull final round as Collin Morikawa stretched away from the field to get to 17 under through 12. However, two bogeys on the inward par 5's has given the chasers a chance and Morikawa may rue letting everyone back in.
We have Collin as 4 stars in pressure performance, mainly due to his excellent victories at the Workday Live Open and PGA Championship last year. However, to our surprise he let us down at the Tournament of Champions with a final round 73 when starting the final round one shot back. All Collin's wins to date have come from behind so this will be a new challenge starting with a two shot lead. He has the temperament to deal with the pressure but the putter seemed to go cold from the 13th onwards and he looks short enough at 7/4 to convert.
Brooks Koepka is next in the betting at 7/2 and has every chance given his performance in Phoenix. If he is able to overcome his niggling neck injury he is the most likely to chase Morikawa down. Billy Horschel did amazingly well to get back into this but he's not for us in contention.
The next three in the betting are big dangers from off the pace. Webb Simpson and our 30/1 pre-event pick Patrick Reed and clinical in contention, while Rory is more than capable of a low one from off the pace. We will be hoping our two in-play selections Viktor Hovland (50/1) and Hideki Matsuyama (66/1) can make a move from 10 under. Indeed, the 25/1 on Hovland could be worth a play if you aren't already on. He hit every fairway yesterday and lost a stroke on the greens despite shooting 66.
It looks nicely poised for a dramatic Sunday and it has been a thoroughly enjoyable spectacle so far. The Concession is exactly what us punters want to see from a course on Tour, offering the perfect mix of risk and reward. Once again the wind doesn't look to be a factor and we will be set for a Sunday shootout.
Sunday's Bet
- 1PT WEBB SIMPSON 9/1 @ Skybet (Win Only)
Webb's profile also shows a 4 star pressure performance rating and we think he is worth a small play given his performances at the RBC Heritage and Waste Management Phoenix Open last year. He birdied the last two holes to deny Tony Finau in Phoenix and was ruthless at the Heritage, reeling off birdie after birdie. A similar performance would ask the question. Stats wise, he is performing well - 3rd tee to green, 7th for approach and 3rd around the greens. Webb is usually a strong putter so we can expect him to improve on this today.
27 February 2021, 12:10pm
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Koepka |
-11 |
| Morikawa |
-10 |
| Horschel |
-10 |
| Smith |
-10 |
Brooks Koepka has the halfway lead as he tries to build on his victory in Phoenix a couple of weeks ago, but the real drama was with our sole 50/1 in-play tip yesterday. Viktor Hovland burst out the blocks, with five birdies in his first six holes. Two more at his 16th and 17th holes got him to 8 under, trading in single figures at one point, but he made a complete mess of his final hole with an 8 to finish. It was a cruel blow considering the quality of his golf beforehand but he has 36 holes left to potentially grab an each way return.
Whilst all this was happening, Collin Morikawa blitzed through the field with a 64. He joins Cameron Smith and Billy Horschel in second place, one back from Koepka. The leaderboard is packed with quality but they will have their work cut out to keep up with Brooks this weekend. Our player profile gives him a 4 star pressure performance rating and he demands respect. With that said, he began the final round of the PGA Championship within two of the lead and finished 29th so he is no given.
Out of the chasing pack, we are quite happy with our pre-event selections with two of them in the top 10. There doesn't appear to be a great deal of value around with the top eight in the betting 14/1 or less, but we think one price is bigger than it should be heading into the weekend.
Saturday's Bet
- 1pt Each Way HIDEKI MATSUYAMA 66/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1,2,3,4)
Hideki is 6 under par, 5 off the lead. Only one player has made more birdies so far, but there have been expensive mistakes also. Two 7's on Friday means he still has lots of work to do but he is capable of raising his game at the weekend, as he showed in Houston at the end of 2020 with rounds of 70-70-66-63 to finish 2nd. He improved by 5 shots tee to green yesterday and the putter is working nicely, gaining over 1.5 shots each day. As an added bonus, Hideki has a great record at The Memorial which is also a Nicklaus design. Let's take our chances that he can cut out the mistakes.
26 February 2021, 11:30am
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Fitzpatrick |
-6 |
| Simpson |
-6 |
| Kisner |
-6 |
| Garcia |
-6 |
| Koepka |
-6 |
| Horschel |
-6 |
Friday's Bet
- 1pt Each Way VIKTOR HOVLAND 50/1 @ Betway (1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
Viktor is one under par after finishing with three birdies to save his round, which should give him good momentum. He does have a lot of traffic to pass, however, a look his recent finishes show he has a habit of starting slow and placing. He has finished 5-6-2 in his last 3 starts and each time he was at least 6 shots behind after round one. A look back at previous WGC's shows the last four winners have all been at least 3 back (Brooks was 6 back) so there is plenty of time for the youngster to let his class show. Obviously, quite a risky play but the rewards could be worth it if he can have a good round today.
