Event Info
Starts: 20th May 2021
Course: Ocean Course, Kiawah Island, SC
Par: 72
Length: 7,876 yards
2020 Champion: Collin Morikawa
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -9.67
Pre-Event Bets: +9.83
1pt EW Daniel Berger 45/1 @ Boylesports (1/5 1-10)
1.25pts EW Patrick Reed 33/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-10)
0.75pts EW Joaquin Niemann 60/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-9)
0.75pts EW Paul Casey 66/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Harris English 110/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
0.75pts EW Keegan Bradley First Round Leader 60/1 - Betfair/Paddy Power (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Garrcik Higgo First Round Leader 100/1 - 10bet (1/5 1-7)
0.5pts EW Matt Jones First Round Leader 125/1 - Betfair/Paddy Power (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Joel Dahmen First Round Leader 200/1 - 10Bet (1/5 1-7)
0.5pts EW Kevin Kisner First Round Leader 175/1 - 10Bet (1/5 1-7)
2.5pts Lucas Herbert to beat Brendon Todd and Tyler Collet 7/4 @ Bet365
2pts Peter Malnati to beat Lanto Griffin and Brad Marek 7/4 @ William Hill
1.5pts Padraig Harrington to beat Phil Mickelson and Jason Day 3/1 @ Betfair
4pts Viktor Hovland to beat Bryson DeChambeau 19/20 @ William Hill (1st Round Mythical Match Up)
2.5pts Kevin Na to MISS the cut 5/4 @ Bet365
2.5pts Takumi Kanaya to MAKE the cut 6/5 @ Bet365
2pts Matt Kuchar Top 20 Finish 6/1 @ Betfair
1.5pts Joel Dahmen Top 20 finish 8/1 @ William Hill
0.5pts EW Padraig Harrington Top Former Winner 80/1 @ Betfair (1/4 1-3)
In-Play Bets: -19.5pts
21 May 2021 (-10.5pts)
1pt EW Gary Woodland 40/1 @ 10Bet (1/4 1-5)
1pt EW Cameron Davis 2nd ROUND LEADER 25/1 @ Betfair (1/4 1-4)
1pt EW Sam Horsfield 2ND ROUND LEADER 25/1 @ William Hill (1/4 1-4)
4.5pts Viktor Hovland to beat Bryson DeChambeau 19/20 @ William Hill (2nd Round Mythical Match Up)
22 May 2021 (-5pts)
1.5pts EW Hideki Matsuyama 3rd Round Leader 9/1 @ Ladbrokes (1/4 1-3)
1pt EW Sungjae Im 28/1 @ Boylesports (1/5 1-5)
23 May 2021 (-4pts)
1pt EW Christiaan Bezuidenhout 25/1 @ Sporting Index (1/4 1-3)
2pts Jordan Spieth Top 10 Finish 9/5 @ Skybet
Preview
The Basics
Kiawah Island is a links-style course which is heavily affected by wind. The website states the course is probably the most affected by wind outside of the UK and Ireland!
Eight of the holes run parallel to the Atlantic Ocean and are fully exposed to the ocean breezes as they were raised above the dunes when the course was constructed.
Course Info
Course Designer: Pete Dye
US PGA last played here: 2012
Type of Course: Coastal, Long, Demanding.
Fairways: Paspalum
Rough: Paspalum
Greens: Paspalum
Water Hazards: In play on a dozen holes
Par 5's: 2nd, 7th, 11th, 16th
Premium on: Ability to deal with wind
2012 Recap
The 2012 US PGA Championship was dominated by Europeans with five of the top six (and seven of the top 10) coming from the UK or Sweden.
Morning starters on day one got the best of conditions as a rain softened course offered birdie opportunities. Day two was the polar opposite with winds of up to 35mph leaving only four players able to break par. As a result, only ten players were under par going into the weekend. A thunderstorm disrupted play on day three and meant players had to play some of that round and their final round on the Sunday. Conditions on Sunday were ideal as wind reached a max of 15mph and the sun shone throughout.
Rory had a three shot lead going into the final round and a bogey free last 18 holes meant nobody got any closer than two shots. A round of 66 gave him a convincing eight shot victory.
Significant Info
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Players and caddies will be able to use laser rangefinders to measure distances to the pin this week.
The US PGA was previously the final Major of the year but now occupies a May slot in the calendar.
Weather
Weather forecast taken from pgatour.com. It will be a dry week with temperatures unlikley to get above 60 degrees Farenheit.
Thursday: Sunny with winds of 24mph.
Friday: Sunny with winds of 21mph.
Saturday: Sunny with winds of 16mph.
Sunday: Sunny with winds of 14mph.
Trends
Winning Score
Since Rory McIlroy won here in 2012 with a score of -13, we have seen winning scores at the US PGA range from -8 to -20.
Correlating Courses
Harbour Town Golf Links, home of the RBC Heritage is a course worth considering. It was also designed by Pete Dye and is close in proximity to Kiawah Island.
Course Form
Little to go on as the last tournament to be played at Kiawah Island was the 2012 US PGA. The only event prior to that was the 1991 Ryder Cup.
Recent Form
Counts for a lot at the US PGA Championship, 11 of the past 12 champions had recorded a top 20 finish in their two events prior to winning.
Nationality
The last five winners have been from the USA but prior to that we saw a mix of nationalities win.
Age
Nine of the last twelve winners were in their 20s. The other three winners were in their 30s.
Major Virgins
Eight of the past 12 winners were claiming their first Major. However, it's not an event to record your first ever win in America - only one winner from the past 12 did not have a previous PGA Tour/Major win.
US PGA Exposure
Eight of the past 12 US PGA champions had recorded a top 8 finish in the event prior to winning. Nine of the past 12 had recorded a top 20 finish.
Debutants
Two of the past 12 US PGA champions were playing in the tournament for the first time.
World Ranking
Nine of the last twelve winners of the US PGA were ranked in the top 25 of the official world golf rankings prior to winning. Notable that we have seen two winners outside the top 100 also prevail.
2020: Five of the top eight were inside the world's top 30.
2019: Five of the top six were inside the world's top 31.
2018: Two of the top five were in the top 30. However, the other three players were all Major winners.
2017: The top six were all ranked inside the top 30.
Stats Analysis
Previous US PGAs tells us we are looking for a player with a good all round game. This year we are also looking for competent wind players who putt well on Paspalum greens.
Driving Distance
Morikawa's win last year bucked the trend of power players winning. Rankings in last four years (most recent first) have been 53-11-2-1.
Driving Accuracy
Up until last year we'd seen little emphasis on Driving Accuracy. Rankings have been 5-62-26-113.
SG: Off The Tee
Rankings have been 6-3-3-32. Preferable to be a strong driver, if not the best.
SG: Approach
Surprisingly, winners haven't been razor sharp with their approach play. Rankings in last four years of 22-1-11-23.
SG: Around The Green
No winner in the past four years has ranked inside the top 30.
SG: Putting
Rankings the past four years have been 1-59-23-4.
In Play
Tough Holes
The 4th and 18th rank as the two toughest on the scorecard but in 2012 the hardest were the 13th and 18th .
Birdie Holes
The 2nd and 16th played as the two easiest in 2012. Players need to take advantage of the par 5s.
Closing Stretch
The 17th is a long par 3 and the par 4 18th can cause problems. Not holes to make birdies, they ranked 6th and 2nd in terms of difficulty in 2018.
Fast or Slow Start
McIlroy was t2nd here in 2012 after the first round. He was two shots behind after round two and was leader by three going into the final round.
In-play
PGA Championship In-Play Blog
23rd May 2021, 11:55am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Mickelson | -7 |
| Koepka | -6 |
| Oosthuizen | -5 |
| Streelman | -4 |
| Grace | -3 |
| Bezuidenhout | -3 |
Without dramatizing it too much, Phil’s performance for his first 10 and a bit holes was nothing short of mind-blowing. You won’t see a better display of driving in that spell, with every tee shot seemingly hitting the centre of the fairway. Standing over a 7 foot birdie putt on the 11th hole to go six shots clear of the field, it felt like we were really watching something special unfold.
Unfortunately for Phil, he finally finally missed one and it was followed by a bogey on 12 and a double on 13. He managed to steady himself for the last 5 holes to take a one shot lead over Brooks Koepka, but he looked exhausted by the end of the round and you have to wonder how much it will have taken out of him.
Although one shot behind and bogeying his last, the momentum is now with Koepka after cutting a five shot deficit to one. Brooks is aiming to tie Phil on five major’s this week and the injury that put so many off backing him doesn’t appear to be affecting his play.
The bookmaker’s still rate him the man to beat with a best price 13/8 available. Mickelson is 3/1 and you can get 6/1 on Louis Oosthuizen who is one shot further back of Koepka. If you fancy Kevin Streelman to blindside them all, he is 16/1.
Out of the four, we would favour Koepka at 13/8. Although not at his best stuff yesterday, he went round in two under and if he reverts back to his Friday level he could win this with a couple of shots to spare.
Although we would love to see it, it just feels like Mickelson is going to run out of steam. Oosthuizen is too often the bridesmaid and never the bride and has only won twice since 2014 – neither in America. It is a big step up for Streelman and he’s not for us.
With the wind direction set to switch, it’s entirely possible that some of the chasing pack may make a challenge. No one level par or better can be fully discounted, and there are plenty of multiple winners hoping to contend.
Our subscribers have plenty of interest heading into the week with Gary Woodland, Joaquin Niemann, Paul Casey and Sungjae Im all great each way prospects with an outside chance of winning. Our 8/1 Top 20 play Joel Dahmen sits 23rd so it’s all to play for. Hopefully it’s a profitable week but one thing is for sure, we can expect plenty of drama tonight!
Round 4 Bets
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22nd May 2021, 10am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Mickelson | -5 |
| Oosthuizen | -5 |
| Koepka | -4 |
| Matsuyama | -3 |
| Grace | -3 |
| Bezuidenhout | -3 |
Phil Mickelson rolled back the years to jointly lead with Louis Oosthuizen going into the third round of the PGA Championship. Playing his opening nine holes in two over par, it looked like Mickelson was set to slip down the leaderboard after a promising opening round. However, his five under par 31 coming home was enough to give the veteran a share of the lead going into the weekend.
The USPGA has been a young man's game in recent years, with all twelve previous winners having been below the age of 40. Phil turns 51 in less than a month but shows no signs of slowing down. He leads the field SG: Off The Tee through two rounds, with a more than healthy ranking of 26th for Driving Distance.
A win at the 2019 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am was the last time Phil was in the winners enclosure (excluding the Champions Tour) and the bookies have priced him up as fourth favourite (12/1) to win this week. Phil has spoken in recent weeks about his inability to focus for 18 holes but leading in a Major will surely have him fully focused. He has a 4⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating and provided he keeps his concentration, he's capable of hanging around.
Continuing the theme from 2019, Brooks Koepka won the last of his Majors in 2019 and he is the man the bookies rate as 4/1 favourite to win another. For all Koepka's injury problems (he still can't fully bend down to read putts), his approach play over the first two days has been sublime (he ranks 1st SG: Approach) and it's no surprise he ranked 1st SG: Tee To Green. He missed several putts under 5ft yesterday, including a putt under 3ft. Simply put, he's the worthy favourite.
The bookmakers make Louis Oosthuizen and Hideki Matsuyama third and fourth in the betting at 6/1 and 8/1 respectively. They should both be respected, Matsuyama especially so given he won last month's Masters. The Japanese star has history of running hot, having ended 2016 with four wins and a second place in five starts (admittedly two of those wins came on the Japanese Tour). Louis Oosthuizen hasn't won since 2018 and there's a perception that he lacks the killer instinct on a Sunday. However, he is a past Major winner having won the 2010 Open Championship and has been runner up in all four Majors so he's a man who relishes the biggest stage.
Louis Oosthuizen isn't the only South African on page one of the leaderboard, Branden Grace and Christiaan Bezuidenhout finding themselves a couple of shots off the pace. The pair have been propelled to the top by their short games thus far (Grace ranks 1st SG: Around The Green and Bezuidenhout ranks 1st SG: Putting) thus far but both are proven winners. Don't be surprised to find one, or even both, of them in contention on Sunday evening.
The forecast for today according to pgatour.com weather is for another dry day with winds reaching a maximum of 12mph later in the day.
Round 3 Bets
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21st May 2021, 10am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Conners | -5 |
| Horsfield | -3 |
| Davis | -3 |
| Bradley | -3 |
| Koepka | -3 |
| Wise | -3 |
| Hovland | -3 |
Birdie putts of 55ft (from off the green) and 33ft were the difference for Corey Conners as he opened up a two stroke lead at the top of the leaderboard on day one at the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island. Conners now finds himself 15/2 favourite to win.
Conners has only won once on the PGA Tour, his win coming at the 2019 Valero Texas Open. However, he is one of the best ball strikers on Tour and has steadily improved his world ranking each year since that win. He's very much a progressive player and those who have backed him will be encouraged with the way he spoke in his post round interview. Conners described the belief he has in himself and he'll need that to see off the players behind him.
Chasing Conners are a number of young, powerful players. Kiawah Island is the longest Major venue in history and we shouldn't be surprised that the current top seven all comprise players under 35, who all hit the ball a reasonable distance. Brooks Koepka and Keegan Bradley are past PGA Champions, whilst Viktor Hovland is surely a Major winner in waiting.
Hovland finds himself 2nd in the betting at 8/1 and is a definite danger over the coming days. Worryingly for the others, Hovland indicated in his post-round interview that he feels "like there's not really a hole in my game." His long game stats certainly backed that up, he ranked 5th SG: Tee To Green yesterday. It will be a surprise if he's not in contention on Sunday.
Brooks Koepka double bogeyed his opening hole but bounced back with a strong finish. He finds himself third in the betting at 10/1 and he too is a significant danger. Brooks wasn't as strong off the tee as he normally is but an impressive day with his irons and the flat stick were enough to see him right in the mix.
In 2012 we saw winner, Rory McIlroy, two shots back after round one. Given the quality towards the top of the market, we aren't looking too far down the leaderboard today.
The forecast for today is winds of around 9-15mph for the morning wave with the wind picking up in the afternoon to a maximum of 22mph.
Our subscribers enjoyed an each way return on Keegan Bradley in the First Round Leader market after we put him up at 60/1. We'll be aiming to continue that run today as we put up in-play bets in the outright, 2nd Round Leader and 3ball markets.
Round 2 Bets
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