Preview
Event Info
Starts: 16th June 2022
Course: The Country Club
Par: 70
Length: 7,264 yards
2021 Champion: Jon Rahm
The Basics
The Country Course has not been used for a U.S. Open since 1988 and was last played by professionals at the 1999 Ryder Cup. Matt Fitzpatrick won the 2013 U.S. Amatuer Championship here. Other notables that week were Corey Conners semi-finalist and Scottie Scheffler quarter finalist.
In an event known for the thickest rough, the last six US Open winners - Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka (twice), Gary Woodland, Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm - all ranked outside the top 60 for driving accuracy the week they won. However, 'bomb and gouge' has become the order of the day and length is a definite advantage. With that said, long fescue awaits wild drives this week and we may see the bombers punished more than usual.
Course Info
Course Designer: Willie Campbell 1895 with Gil Hanse restoration 2020.
US Open last played here: 1988
Type of Course: Parkland, Classical.
Fairways: Bentgrass Grass
Rough: Rye with Kentucky Bluegrass, Thick, Fescue waiting wide of the rough.
Greens: Small, Bentgrass
Premium on: Greens in Regulation
For a real understanding of the course, this short 11 minute guide will give you a great idea of what to expect.
Fried Egg Guides: The Country Club, Site of the 2022 US Open - YouTube
Weather
The lead up to the event looks fairly dry with temperatures reaching up to 70 degrees Farenheit. Potential thunderstorms are forecast for the Monday before play starts and then again on Friday of the event.
Thursday
Partly Cloudy, Max winds 17mph.
Friday
Scattered Thunderstorms, Max winds 15mph.
Saturday
PM Showers, Max winds 16mph.
Sunday
Partly Cloudy, Max winds 14mph.
Trends
Winning Score
The US Open winning score has varied significantly over the years. Since 2008 we have seen scores range from +1 to -16. Rahm won last year with -6, which was also the score needed for a playoff here at The Country Club back in 1988.
Price of Winner
Gary Woodland (2019) is the only winner to start in excess of 50/1 in the past 9 years.
Course Form
Most players will have limited playing experience here but it won't hurt those with fond memories of the 2013 U.S. Amateur Championship.
Recent Form
Four of the past six champions had recorded a top 10 in their last two starts. The 2021 winner, Jon Rahm, was due to win at Memorial before having to WD with Covid and was 8th the week before that at the PGA.
Nationality
Six of the last seven winners have been from the USA but prior to that there were four Europeans in five years.
Age
The US Open has been a younger man's Major in recent times with the last 13 winners being 35 or less on the day they lifted the trophy. Of those 13, twelve were under 32.
Major Virgins
It has also been an event which has favoured first time Major winners in recent years with 10 of the past 13 claiming their first Major. However, it's not an event to record your first ever win in America - only one winner from the past 13 did not have a previous PGA Tour title.
US Open Exposure
As with the Open Championship, prior experience of playing in a US Open is essential. In the last 12 years, only one player has won a US Open without previously having a top-25 finish, and every winner in the last 12 years has made at least one previous US Open appearance.
World Ranking
2021: Only one of the top 5 was ranked outside the top 25 in the world - Guido Migliozzi (107th). The other four were all established winners.
2020: The top 5 at Winged Foot last year comprised three players inside the world's top 30 and two who had previously won on the PGA Tour. It is a similar story through the years:
2019: The top 6 comprised five players within the world's top 30 and one player who had won on the PGA Tour before.
2018: Four of the top 5 were in the world's top 30 and the other player, Tony Finau (ranked 37th), had won on the PGA Tour before.
2017: The top seven comprised four players inside the top 30. Two had won on the PGA Tour before and one who had not won but would win twice later that year (Xander Schauffele)
2016: Four of the top six were inside the top 30 and the other two had both won on the PGA Tour before.
Stats Analysis
We are looking for a player with high SG: Approach and long off the tee. This year, players who can putt on Poa Annua greens are also a massive bonus.
Driving Distance
Every US Open champion in the past five years has ranked inside the top 25 for Driving Distance.
Driving Accuracy
Only one winner in the past five years has ranked inside the top 25 for Driving Accuracy.
SG: Off The Tee
A mixed bag. Rankings have been -2-44-43-7. A strong driver is always favoured at a U.S. Open.
SG: Approach
Four winners in the past five years have ranked inside the top 4. Jon Rahm was the only one to not, but still ranked in the top 20. It is absolutely vital to hit good iron shots at the US Open.
SG: Around The Green
Bryson DeChambeau ranked 5th in 2020 but the three champions before him and Jon Rahm (after him) ranked no better than 50th.
SG: Putting
You need to putt well to win a US Open, Rahm ranked top 30 last year, Bryson ranked 25th in 2020 but the three champions before him ranked 5th, 5th and 4th.
In Play
Fast or Slow Start
Of the past 23 U.S. Open winners, 20 have been within four shots of the lead after round one.
US Open winners more often than not come from the 3rd round leader or those closest to him. Eleven of the past fourteen winners have been first or second after 54 holes. However, Jon Rahm came from three shots back last year to win.
In-play
U.S. Open In-Play Blog
19 June 2022, 10:45am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Zalatoris |
-4 |
| Fitzpatrick |
-4 |
| Rahm |
-3 |
| Bradley |
-2 |
| Hadwin |
-2 |
| Scheffler |
-2 |
| Three players tied |
-1 |
Round 3 Summary
The wind caused carnage for most and we saw the leaderboard chopping and changing all day. Scottie Scheffler had a two shot lead at the turn before a run of dropped shots. Jon Rahm had a one shot lead playing the last but could only finish with a double bogey. Joint leaders Matt Fitzpatrick and Will Zalatoris handled the conditions the best and along with Keegan Bradley, were the only three players in the current top 10 who were under par yesterday.
Notable Round 3 Quotes
"It brings a lot more to the mental aspect of the game than other regular events, and for me, I think it's been a big change from U.S. PGA to come here to a golf course I know so well, and it's given me extra confidence. I feel like certainly now these last two majors that I feel like so much more comfortable out here. My game has changed for the better." Matt Fitzpatrick
"I think especially coming off the PGA it gave me a lot of belief and confidence that I belong in this situation. There's a difference in thinking it and then actually being in the situation and believing it. So I think that's probably the biggest change." Will Zalatoris
"But playing here, it's going to be intense, but I've had this weird sense of calm over me this week. I don't know if that will be here tomorrow or not, but I just have to try to just put one foot in front of the other. I'm playing really well, and I really feel comfortable on this course." Keegan Bradley
Round 4 Weather
Rain is forecast in the morning until 10am but it should be dry the remainder of the day. It is expected to be cold (around 60 degrees Farenheit) with a consistent wind of around 13mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
We face a similar predicament to the PGA Championship. Zalatoris and Fitzpatrick are both chasing their first PGA Tour wins, never mind their first Major wins. Zalatoris has now been in this position a couple of times, whilst Fitzpatrick only really has the PGA Championship to draw on. The recent experience of contending at a Major should serve them well and there is not much to separate them.
At the prices, Skybet's standout 9/2 for Zalatoris would be preferred to the 10/3 on Fitzpatrick, but both look short given how quickly things can change here and the proximity of Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler. The latter looked for all the world he was going to build a solid lead but we would expect him to shake that disappointment off and challenge today.
Apart from Rahm's blip on 18, he looked very good coming down the stretch yesterday and he still looks the man to beat in our eyes.
Where is the value?
Three each way places are available in the market and there may be potential backing a variety of the guys at +1 or +2 at odds of 200/1+. A 66 or 67 to finish -2 would possibly ask a question and certainly have a chance of a place.
Round 4 Bets
- US Open in-play bets are only available to subscribers.
18 June 2022, 8:05am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Dahmen |
-5 |
| Morikawa |
-5 |
| Buckley |
-4 |
| McIlroy |
-4 |
| Wise |
-4 |
| Rahm |
-4 |
| Hossler |
-4 |
| Five players tied |
-3 |
Round 2 Summary
Two later starters, Joel Dahmen and Collin Morikawa, share the lead going into the weekend at The Country Club. Only two of the top 12 played in the morning, the afternoon starters getting an advantage as the wind died down later in the day.
Notable Round 2 Quotes
"I think what it proves is just you can play this game with many shots. I remember the first time I played with Tiger, and he hit every shot that called for it. Pin is on the right; you hit a little cut. Pin is on the left; you hit a little draw. I think this is just going to hopefully make my iron play and make my game a little bit more well-rounded rather than just hitting a cut. But this week we're just going to work with what we have, and right now it's a little baby draw." Collin Morikawa
"I think I have to go out with the mindset this week that I'm going to try to win my first again. I think that's sort of the -- I'm playing as good a golf as I've played in a long time. I have a lot of experience. Yes, I've won major championships and other big events, but I don't think -- just because I've done that, it doesn't mean that I'll hit better golf shots or I'll hit better putts. I'm in a good place. I'm really happy with where my game is at, and I think that's the most important thing." Rory McIlroy
"We definitely got on the right side of the wave this time. I don't know how much the scoring difference is, but it went from looking really bad, maybe rain and thunder, and we didn't know what was going to happen, and extremely windy, to we kind of made the turn and went to 2, got to 3, and we had perfect sunshine and the wind almost started to die down a little bit. Especially the last few holes. It was kind of about as enjoyable as a U.S. Open walk can be really. When you have two guys playing as good as we both were, I think it makes it even better for us, as well." Jon Rahm
Round 3 Weather
Cool and cloudy with the wind forecast to blow 14mph in the morning before picking up to 19mph late afternoon.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Collin Morikawa are all priced at 9/2. Morikawa has a shot advantage over the other two but it's notable he's playing with a different shot shape this week and there has to be an element of doubt over how that will hold up under the intensity of the weekend. His two previous Major wins (and his other wins) have come when playing a fade, whilst this week he's had to go with a baby draw. He's clearly capable of winning from here but the fact he ranks 33rd for SG: Approach this week and gaining strokes with the putter perhaps tells its own story.
Jon Rahm leads the SG: Off The Tee stats, his driving once again the basis for a good week. The Spaniard described the setup as "fun" and he clearly relishes a tougher test. All aspects of his game look to be in good shape and we expect him to be vying for the title come Sunday.
Rory McIlroy is hoping to follow last week's win in Canada with another this week. Rory leads the putting stats over the opening two rounds and he's clearly a threat when putting well. His last three wins on the PGA Tour have all come when he's been inside the top 7 for SG: Putting. He can't be written off.
Scottie Schefffler is 4th in the betting and he must be considered given the quality of his iron play over the opening two rounds. He comfortably leads the SG: Approach figures and if he can improve his work on and around the greens, he'll be a factor over the weekend.
Where is the value?
There are 15 players within 3 shots of the lead, so the tournament is still wide open. We'll be looking at the outright and 3rd round leader markets.
Round 3 Bets
- US Open in-play bets are only available to subscribers.
17 June 2022, 9:05am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Hadwin |
-4 |
| Tarren |
-3 |
| Lingmerth |
-3 |
| McIlroy |
-3 |
| Dahmen |
-3 |
| Daffue |
-3 |
| Seven players tied |
-2 |
Round 1 Summary
It looked for a long time like three under par would lead but Adam Hadwin, playing in the last group, managed to post a score of 66 and take a one shot lead into the 2nd round.
Notable Round 1 Quotes
"This has been a year in the making really. We set out on a journey, I think, last March, Mark and I. Not of changing the golf swing, but changing the club face in the golf swing, which may be more difficult in and of itself. It was a process. Went through a lot of different things through that. Just a completely different release pattern, and so it took a while to kind of take hold. I think that finally in the fall and kind of the beginning of this year, I really started to feel like I could start to hit shots again with the club face where it was. You know, we continue to monitor that. When it gets windy like this, it's sort of the benefit of what we wanted to do." Adam Hadwin
"A really solid start. You'd take 67 around this golf course any day. Even though I'm standing up here slightly frustrated that I bogeyed the last, it's a great start to the tournament. I felt like I did most things well today. I certainly putted well, and I hit the ball in the right spots, and I hit a lot of greens, gave myself plenty of chances. Just basically did everything that you need to do at a U.S. Open. Yeah, overall really pleased about the start. That's now two majors in a row that I've started well, and hopefully just keep going from here." Rory McIlroy
"I feel like I just have that confidence that I can turn it around. You go through a bad spell of holes, I feel like I can turn it around. I feel like when you've not played a golf course or not had necessarily good experiences at a golf course before or it's a new one, you don't have that, and it's kind of easy to get away from you and get down on yourself. Here, like I've said all week, I've got great memories of the place, and I feel like I know I can have success." Matt Fitzpatrick
Round 2 Weather
There is a possible thunderstorm early afternoon which may bring some rain showers. The wind is expected to blow 13-16mph all day.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Rory McIlroy is 9/2 favourite and the only player priced up at single figure odds. The putter was once again strong for the world number 3 and if he continues to putt like he has done of late, he has to be respected. However, we aren't interested in backing him at the odds given the depth of talent within four shots of the lead.
Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm and Matt Fitzpatrick are all under par and all available at 11/1. All three have their chances, Thomas and Rahm have Major winning credentials, whilst Fitzpatrick won the 2013 US Amateur at The Country Club.
Where is the value?
With a bunched leaderboard there are plenty of possible angles in the outright and 2nd round leader markets.
Round 2 Bets
- US Open in-play bets are only available to subscribers.
