Event Info
Starts: 17th June 2021
Course: Torrey Pines (South)
Par: 71
Length: 7,652 yards
2020 Champion: Bryson DeChambeau
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: +15.32pts
Pre-Event Bets: +4.75pts
1.5pts EW Patrick Reed 30/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
1.25pts EW Tyrrell Hatton 40/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-10)
0.75pts EW Jason Kokrak 70/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
0.75pts EW Adam Scott 80/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Brian Harman 125/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Sergio Garcia 110/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
2.5pts Each Way Louis Oosthuizen Top ROW 10/1 @ Betfair (1/4 1-4)
0.5pts Each Way Taylor Pendrith Top ROW 125/1 @ Betfair (1/4 1-4)
3pts Shane Lowry Top IRISH Player 7/4 @ Skybet
2pts Brendan Steele Top 20 Finish 8/1 @ Bet365
2.5pts Jimmy Walker Top 40 Finish 9/2 @ 10bet
2pts Edoardo Molinari Top 40 Finish 6/1 @ Boylesports
3pts Bubba Watson to MISS The Cut 11/10 @ Bet365
3pts Zach Johnson to MAKE The Cut 21/20 @ Bet365
4pts Taylor Pendrith to beat Wade Ormsby and Dave Coupland 11/8 @ Betvictor
3pts JJ Spaun to beat Fabian Gomez and Chris Baker 17/10 @ Betfair
1.25pts EW Collin Morikawa FIRST ROUND LEADER 30/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Charley Hoffman 'FIRST ROUND LEADER' 80/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-6)
0.5pts EW Ryan Palmer 'FIRST ROUND LEADER' 90/1 @ Unibet (1/5 1-7)
0.5pts EW Kevin Streelman 'FIRST ROUND LEADER' 80/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Jhonattan Vegas FIRST ROUND LEADER 150/1 @ 10bet (1/4 1-5)
In-Play Bets: +10.57pts
18 June 2021 (-2.75pts)
2pts Hideki Matsuyama Win Only 18/1 @ Bet365
0.75pts EW Sunjae Im 125/1 @ Skybet (1/4 1-5)
1pt Robert MacIntyre Top Great Britain and Ireland Player (Win Only) 22/1 @ Unibet
1.75pts JJ Spaun to beat Fabian Gomez and Chris Baker 9/4 @ BetVictor
1.75pts Mathew Sharpstene to beat Dylan Meyer and Luis Fernando Barco 2/1 @ Most bookmakers
19 June 2021 (-2.18pts)
1.25pts Each Way Bubba Watson 22/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-4)
0.75pts Each Way Mackenzie Hughes 80/1 @ Skybet (1/4 1-4)
2pts Edoardo Molinari to beat Rick Lamb 10/11 @ Bet365
20 June 2021 (+15.5pts)
2pts Jon Rahm Win Only 11/1 @ Most Bookmakers
4pts Bryson DeChambeau to beat Scottie Scheffler 5/6 @ Betfred
2.5pts Chez Reavie to beat Rikuya Hoshino 19/20 @ Bet365
Preview
The Basics
The South course at Torrey Pines hosts the US Open for the first time since 2008. Many of the competitors will be familiar with the course as it is the host course for the Farmers Insurance Open on the PGA Tour. The course was renovated in 2019 by Rees Jones in preparation for this event.
In an event known for the thickest rough it would have been unthinkable a few years ago to predict the last five winners of the US Open would be Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka (twice), Gary Woodland and Bryson DeChambeau - players not known for their driving accuracy. However, 'bomb and gouge' has become the order of the day and length is a definite advantage.
2008 Recap
Torrey Pines last hosted the US Open in 2008 and it was memorable. Tiger Woods played with two stress fractures and a torn ACL in his left knee yet somehow willed his way to victory. Coming down the 72nd hole, he holed a clutch 12ft birdie putt to get into an 18 hole playoff with Rocco Mediate. It was a similar story during the playoff as Tiger again birdied the last to force a sudden death playoff. A par at the 7th hole was enough for Tiger to finally prevail and claim his 14th Major.
Woods and Mediate were the only two players to finish under par for the tournament. Four of the top eight were Europeans and the other four were from the USA.
Course Info
Course Designer: William P Bell 1957 (Rees Jones re-design 2001 and 2019)
US Open last played here: 2008
Type of Course: Coastal, Long, Demanding.
Fairways: Narrow, Bermuda Grass
Rough: Kikuyugrass with Ryegrass, Thick.
Greens: Poa Annua
Water Hazards: 18th only
Par 5's: 9th, 13th, 18th
Premium on: Tee to green and strong Poa Annua putters
Significant Info
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather
The weather is forecast to be sunny all week with moderate winds.
Thursday
Max winds 9mph.
Friday
Max winds 8mph.
Saturday
Max winds 9mph.
Sunday
Max winds 9mph.
Trends
Winning Score
The US Open winning score has varied significantly over the years. Since 2008 we have seen scores range from +1 to -16. The last time it was played at Torrey Pines (2008), the winning score was +1.
Price of Winner
Gary Woodland (2019) is the only winner to start in excess of 50/1 in the past 8 years.
Course Form
Torrey Pines has not hosted a US Open since 2008 but course experience is a huge factor at the Farmers Insurance Open held here every year and we should assume this will be the case for the US Open.
Recent Form
Only one of the past five US Open champions had recorded a top 20 finish in their previous start. Three of the past five champions had recorded a top 10 in their last two starts.
Nationality
The last six winners have been from the USA but prior to that there were four Europeans in five years.
Age
The US Open has been a younger man's Major in recent times with the last 12 winners being 35 or less on the day they lifted the trophy. Of those 12, 11 were under 32.
Major Virgins
It has also been an event which has favoured first time Major winners in recent years with 9 of the past 12 claiming their first Major. However, it's not an event to record your first ever win in America - only one winner from the past 12 did not have a previous PGA Tour title.
US Open Exposure
As with the Open Championship, prior experience of playing in a US Open is essential. In the last 11 years only one player has won a US Open without previously having a top-25 finish, and every winner in the last 11 years has made at least one previous US Open appearance.
World Ranking
Three of the top 5 were ranked inside the top 30 in the world when the US Open was last played at Torrey Pines. The other two players had previously won on the PGA Tour. Coincidentally, the top 5 at Winged Foot last year comprised three players inside the world's top 30 and two who had previously won on the PGA Tour. It is a similar story through the years:
2019: The top 6 comprised five players within the world's top 30 and one player who had won on the PGA Tour before.
2018: Four of the top 5 were in the world's top 30 and the other player, Tony Finau (ranked 37th), had won on the PGA Tour before.
2017: The top seven comprised four players inside the top 30. Two had won on the PGA Tour before and one who had not won but would win twice later that year (Xander Schauffele)
2016: Four of the top six were inside the top 30 and the other two had both won on the PGA Tour before.
Stats Analysis
We are looking for a player with high SG: Approach and long off the tee. This year, players who can putt on Poa Annua greens are also a massive bonus.
Driving Distance
Every US Open champion in the past four years has ranked inside the top 20 for Driving Distance.
Driving Accuracy
Only one winner in the past four years has ranked inside the top 25 for Driving Accuracy. Their rankings have been 55-30-107-9.
SG: Off The Tee
A mixed bag. Rankings have been 2-44-43-7. Focus on power with accuracy a bonus.
SG: Approach
Every winner in the past four years has ranked inside the top 4. It is absolutely vital to hit good iron shots at the US Open.
SG: Around The Green
Bryson DeChambeau ranked 5th last year but the three champions before him ranked no better than 64th.
SG: Putting
You need to putt well to win a US Open, Bryson ranked 25th last year but the three champions before him ranked 5th, 5th and 4th.
In Play
Tough Holes
The 4th, 12th and 15th all play over 480 yards and will pose a challenge. Both par 3's on the back 9 - 11th and 16th - play 225+ yards.
Birdie Holes
The three par 5's (9th, 13th and 18th) are all birdie opportunities but do note the 9th and 13th are over 600 yards. The 2nd is a short par 4 where players will hope to pick up a shot.
Closing Stretch
The 16th is a long par 3, 17th is a potential birdie hole and the par 5 18th to finish can provide drama with water short and left of the green.
Fast or Slow Start
Tiger Woods shot an opening round of 72 in 2008 and found himself four shots back. This fits the in-play betting narrative for the US Open in general. Of the past 22 winners, 19 have been within four shots of the lead after round one.
US Open winners more often than not come from the 3rd round leader or those closest to him. Eleven of the past thirteen winners have been first or second after 54 holes.
However, be mindful that we have seen some massive comebacks in recent years at the Farmers Insurance Open. Marc Leishman was 6 back after 36 holes and 4 back after 54 holes at the 2019 Farmers. Jason Day was 8 back after 18, and 4 back after 36 when winning the Farmers in 2018. The previous year, Jon Rahm was 7 back after 18 and 5 back after 36.
In-play
U.S. Open In-Play Blog
20th June 2021, 2.35am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Henley | -5 |
| Hughes | -5 |
| Oosthuizen | -5 |
| McIlroy | -3 |
| DeChambeau | -3 |
Torrey Pines may not be to everyone's taste, but it has produced an exciting leaderboard going into the final round. A three way tie at the top with some star names lurking behind has set us up for a compelling Sunday, just as we had when the US Open was last held here in 2008.
The 2008 edition culminated in a short hitting pro from the PGA Tour (Rocco Mediate) going into a play-off with a powerhouse of the game (Tiger Woods). It's fitting we have a similar mix on the leaderboard this year.
None of the front three rank inside the top 100 for Driving Distance on the PGA Tour but the two players tucked in behind most certainly do. Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy lead the Driving Distance stats this season and it will be fascinating to see whether power prevails, as it did in 2008.
Louis Oosthuizen is the 7/2 favourite and he'll be hoping to add to his sole Major, the 2010 Open Championship. Second place at last month's PGA Championship was his 5th runner-up finish in a Major, and if Majors were awarded on the basis of past performance, he'd be the most deserving. Sadly for Louis that isn't the case and he'll need to win for the first time in America to add to his tally.
We have a feeling Oosthuizen lacks the killer instinct and that's backed up by the fact he hasn't won since 2018. A player of his undoubted quality should have won more and it's a worry his last win outside of South Africa was 2016.
Mackenzie Hughes was advised yesterday to GBC subscribers at 80/1 outright and as a 50/1 lean in the 3rd round leader market. He's already done us a favour so he owes us nothing, but we're very much hoping he can continue his fine play from the past two days. He's a little rusty in contention having not won since the 2016 RSM Classic and has played miserably in 2021. However, he was runner up at the 2020 Honda Classic and qualified for the end of year Tour Championship so he's not completely without recent experience. A fast finisher, he's capable of riding the momentum he's gathered.
Russell Henley is the final member of the leading trio. A gutsy par putt on his final hole ensured he kept his position amongst the leaders but he's a worry for us in contention. A weak final round at the CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek last year was a huge let-down and his record when leading through 54 holes now stands at one win from three.
Chasing the front three are two of golf's biggest names. Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau are lurking at -3 and both were impressive on moving day. Rory's 67 would have been blemish free had it not been for a wayward drive on 15. Bryson's 68 was bogey free.
Bryson left a number of putts on the edge yesterday and is tipped to go close. He possesses a 5⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating and is generally pretty convincing on a Sunday when in contention. He'll draw on his final round at last year's US Open and we should remember that he was +4 for the tournament through his first 21 holes. He's played his last 33 in seven under and is a huge danger.
McIlroy has the more recent winning experience, having won the Wells Fargo Championship in May. He was impressive (at least until the last hole) in the final round to win at Quail Hollow but it should be said he was never really challenged. We have his GBC Pressure Performance Rating set at 3⭐ and of the players at the head of the betting he's not the one we'd want to back.
As noted in the Preview, 11 of the past 13 winners have come from the final pairing at the US Open. This course has seen some dramatic final round comebacks at the Farmers Insurance Open - but given the best round this week has been 67 (-4), it will take something special from the players at -1 or further behind to win.
Round 4 Bets
Our in-play bets for the US Open are only available to subscribers. You will find bets in your Telegram group.
19th June 2021, 9.35am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Henley | -5 |
| Bland | -5 |
| Oosthuizen | -4 |
| Wolff | -4 |
| Watson | -3 |
| Rahm | -3 |
We have surprise leaders at the US Open with Richard Bland and Russell Henley leading the way. Neither had any prior Torrey Pines success, with Bland teeing it up here for the first time and Henley not having played here since a disastrous 79 in the 2014 Farmers Insurance Open.
Henley may have had little success at Torrey Pines but he is a three time winner on Tour. The bookmakers rate him an 11/1 chance and that is probably fair given his last win was 2017. He hasn't been hugely convincing in recent times (2020 CJ Cup in particular) and he's going to come under pressure from some stellar names.
The other joint leader, Bland, won his first event on the European Tour a few weeks ago at the ripe old age of 48. It was certainly a relief to get the monkey off his back, and whilst players have been known to go on a run of wins following their initial win (think David Duval in 1997), winning the US Open would be a significant step up from the British Masters.
Bland's coach is Sky Sports commentator Tim Barter and the channel has reminded us countless times about his win. Another Sky Sports analyst, Rich Beem, won the US PGA Championship in 2002 from a not dissimilar situation to Bland, so it's not unheard of for a relatively unknown player to run hot and win a Major. If you believe that can happen again, 33/1 is available on the Englishman.
If the top two don't have Torrey Pines form, the next four on the leaderboard certainly do. Jon Rahm and Bubba Watson are past champions of the Farmers Insurance Open whilst Louis Oosthuizen and Matt Wolff both have top 30 finishes in recent years.
Rahm is the clear favourite at 7/2 and deservedly so. He played fantastically well at The Memorial two weeks ago before having to withdraw due to a positive Covid test. His record here is also sensational with only one finish outside the top-7 in five starts. Rahm has a 4⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating and he's very much expected to challenge. That said, his last two Sunday efforts when in contention have been average/poor so the 7/2 at this stage is a price we are happy to pass up.
Bubba Watson's good showing has shown this event is more akin to a regular Farmers Insurance Open than a US Open and he needs to be respected given his strong record in that event.
Matt Wolff is another surprise name on page one of the leaderboard given his recent mental health problems. He has been absent since the Masters in April and wasn't expected to tee it up this week. He did finish 2nd last year at the US Open and has a reasonable record at Torrey Pines, having posted a top 25 finish on his debut at the Farmers in 2020. Matt has spoken in both his post-round press conferences about fan expectations contributing to his time away from the course and that's enough to put us off backing him at 12/1. He'll likely feel the pressure over the weekend and it troubles us that is/was weighing on his mind.
Louis Oosthuizen finds himself in contention again. He's been runner-up in every Major in his career and was 2nd in last month's PGA Championship. Odds of 7/1 are about right for us. He'll surely win his second Major soon but given we are already onside with him at 10/1 in the Top ROW market pre-event, he makes little further appeal now.
18th June 2021, 10.55am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Henley | -4 |
| Oosthuizen (through 16) | -4 |
| Molinari F | -3 |
| Cabrera Bello | -3 |
| **Afternoon Wave yet to finish |
A fog delay before the players teed off meant the action carried into the early hours this morning, and many still have several holes to finish today. One of those is co-leader Louis Oosthuizen, who has hit his tee shot greenside on the par 3 8th hole.
The South African has become somewhat of a major specialist, albeit he is usually the bridesmaid and never the bride. Nevertheless, he can’t be discounted on that basis and no one can argue he is due a 2nd major. It’s early days though, and with some big names lurking he’s not for us at single figures.
The target was set in the morning wave by Russell Henley, who arrived with a best finish of 71st in his last four starts. He also has very little Torrey Pines experience with one start (he missed the cut) and was quite reliant on the putter in day one. He is a three time winner on tour but with a best finish of 11th in a major, it’s more likely he will gradually fall away.
Europeans Francesco Molinari and Rafa Cabrera Bello are the closest challengers, but it’s been a while since either have put four strong rounds together at this level and it would be a surprise to see them still up there come Sunday.
We mentioned the big names lurking and the group at 2 under par is littered with potential champions. Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Xander Schauffele and Hideki Matsuyama will all be aiming to chase Louis down today and it would be no surprise to see them overtake the Europeans as his closest challenger.
Rahm in particular is going to be difficult to beat from here. There were slight doubts about his preparation following testing positive for Covid and the danger was he got off to a slow start, however he has done the opposite and is in prime position to make his move. It also feels like a fitting narrative for him to win his first major a couple of weeks after being robbed so cruelly at the Memorial. 11/2 is extremely tempting but there is a lot of golf to play.
Our outright picks have all got off to a solid start with all six of them within 6 shots of the lead currently. As ever, the key is not to play yourself out of the tournament on day one at a major, so hopefully a few of them can kick on today
